Bill Murray's wild Great Plains tornado chase on
Saturday, May 29, 2004:

***See pictures from this day here***

Chaser Gene Rhoden calls it a High Risk Bustola.  The widely hyped tornado outbreak of Saturday across the Central and Southern Plains largely turned out to be a non-event.  At least, that is what I thought when I originally wrote this story at 6 p.m. Saturday. 

About 6:30 p.m.,  Karen and Gene asked if I was disappointed that we did not see a tornado as we drove like a chicken with its head cut off across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas all afternoon. 

Absolutely not!  It was a relief to know that huge damage and large loss of life did not result from the expected outbreak.  I wrote all this even though there was a large supercell thunderstorm to the northwest of Oklahoma City with a tornado on the ground according to spotters.  By 6:30 p.m. that was the dominant storm on radar in the Sooner State.  It was also producing hail larger than baseball size.  It turned out that it did do damage.   That was one of only two significant storms going on across the Plains.  Little did we know we were about to be on the other.  

As I reflected on the day that had been a bust to that point, I couldn't think of many things I would have rather done than be driving across the beautiful Heartland of America in search of awesome storms. 

Some things that I loved:  the anticipation of the morning hours.  The intense study of  data.  Seeing tiny little towns.  Having local residents come up and ask us what the weather was going to do.  Finding ourselves with absolutely no data near Alva, Oklahoma, with just visual clues and an excellent radio station in Woodward to guide us.  Plotting the storms the old fashioned way on a map from radio reports, like when I was a kid. Watching a sickly rotating updraft near Kiowa was still one of the most spectacular scenes I have ever witnessed.  Standing around and chatting with veteran chaser Tim Marshall.  Watching the incredible surge of moisture moving north during the morning hours, with dew points rising from the 50s into the 70s in Kansas while to the west, the dryline was evaporating the same moisture in an even more impressive fashion.  The dew point at Dalhart, Texas dropped twenty degrees in just two hours.  By early afternoon, it was 99 in Dodge Ciy, setting a record for the date.  The dew point at that time was in the lower 20s,making the relative humidity an amazing seven percent!

So was I disappointed at 6:00 p.m.?   Not in the least!  All I could think of was that I couldn't wait to do it again!   Little did I know that the bustola was about to turn into a gold mine.  More tomorrow morning!  

Read on for my field reports that were filed in the heat of battle. 

Saturday, May 29, 2004

Update at 9:40 p.m.
Storm is reintensifying south of Wichita.  TOR warning now in effect.  The sirens are sounding in the city.  It may affect McConnell AFB eventually.  Trying to get photos to John Oldshue for you to see.

Update at 9:30 p.m.
Our tornado fest is coming to an end now.  The storm that is moving just south of Wichita is weakening.  We were able to follow a wall cloud as it moved to our north across the Turnpike.  Hopefully no more major problems from this storm.  We see on radar that there is another potentially tornadic storm moving across northern Oklahoma County just to the north of Oklahoma City.  It has radar indications of a tornado, and confirmed reports of touchdowns earlier.  We are about to head south toward OKC. More if conditions warrant.

Update at 9:20 p.m.
We are now northbound on the Kansas Turnpike 20 miles south of WIchita.  There is a large wedge tornado on the ground visible to our north  The cloud to ground lightning is intense.  We are going to try to catch the tornado as it moves into the southern part of Wichita.  We are having to stop now because we are so close. More in a minute...

Update at 9:04 p.m.
Tornado on the ground near Clearwater Road...getting dark but we can see from lightning and occasional power line flashes...this is a huge supercell...seems like it covers much of the county...we now have the tornado signature on radar...we are about out of gas and night has arrived...we will probably turn back to find some petro...we are now about 12 miles west of the Kansas Turnpike...we saw SEVEN different tornadoes today! Simply awesome!

Still another update at 8:47 p.m.
We are now tracking a tornado on the ground about 3 miles south of Conway Springs, Kansas. We are positioned one mile south of the tornado and it is barely moving. This position is about 16 miles west of the Kansas Turnpike and about 30 miles SSW of Wichita...appears this one will pass south of Wichita...tornado was about one-half mile wide but has now changed to a more narrow elephant trunk shape...the parent wall-cloud is roating rapidly...still taking pictures till my battery goes dead...we still have not taken time out to gas up...running very low...exciting times!!

Update at 8:10 p.m.
Here we go again! A HUGE wedge-shaped tornado now on the grouind directly west of Argoina, Kansas. It may be going through the town now. It is an awesome view. Argonia is on U. S. 160 about 15 miles west of the North-South Kansas Turnpike and about 40 miles SW of Wichita...running low on gas...may have to turn back and look for petro...absolutely awesome!

Another Update at 8:00 p.m.
We are hitting the jackpot! We are now 4 miles NE of Anthony, Kansas and gaining on a tornado from behind. It is a huge tornado--and cone-shaped. It is moving slowly and we are maneuvering to get even closer. More great pictures! Anthony is near Harper and we are still about 45 miles SW of Wichita. Hey! Here is another funnel cloud forming at the moment right in front of us! Awesome! More later...

SPECIAL UPDATE at 7:40 p.m.
We got one!! We are about 4 miles SW of Harper, Kansas with a gorgeous view of a tornado on the ground. We are viewing and photographing from only about two miles away! Seems to be a slow-mover. Have taken a ton or pictures and can't wait to show them! Harper is a small town in South-Central Kansas about 30 miles east of Medicine Lodge and 45 air miles SW of downtown Wichita. Very, very excited! Awesome view!!!

Update 5:35 p.m.
Now turning back east on U. S 160 east of Medicine Lodge, Kansas...still no sightning of funnel clouds or tornadoes so far today...severe thunderstorm passing NW of Medicine Lodge...large hail indicated (See previous update (4:45 p.m.) for more complete recent details.

Update 4:45 p.m
We are now going east of Alva, Oklahoma and then we will turn north into South Central Kansas as our main interest is now west of Medicine Lodge, Kansas. Beautiful displays of cumulonimbus mammatus clouds (almost always means extreme turbulance) in the area...hard to keep our chase vehicle on the road because of the strong SW winds gusting over 40 at times...huge contrast because of the "dry line" advancing eastward...late this afternoon it was 98 degrees with a dew point of only 23 at Guyman, Oklahoma while, at the same time, Clinton, Oklahoma had 94 degrees with a dew point of 65...the "dry line" will be one of the key ingredients in the severe weather development...much of Oklahoma and parts of Kansas under a PDS Tornado Watch. PDS means Particularly Dangerous Situation...also much of the area is under a High Risk of severe weather...a tornado warning for Roger Mills County in West Oklahoma...hail 1.75 inches in diameter reported near Cheyenne in that county...we are occasionally getting into dead spots with internet

Later Information at 5:02 p.m., we have just crossed the Oklahoma-Kansas border south of Medicine Lodge, Kansas...we are going north on U. S 281...all this is very exciting!!!

Update 1:05 p.m.
We can see a disturbance on water vapor satellite imagery near the border between western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle early this afternoon.  This wave looks pretty impressive and may fire convection in the next hour across parts of central Oklahoma.  We are stopping just north of Ponca City, Oklahoma to wait and see what will happen.   We are just an hour south of Wichita and a couple of hours north of Oklahoma City.  Skies here are partly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 70s.  Winds are blowing from the south at about 20-25 mph.  The wheat is just about ready to harvest, and it is so neat to see the strong winds rippling through the brown field.  The temperature and dew point are 85/72 here.   It feels like tornado weather.

Update 12:00 noon
Driving north on I-35 near Perry, Oklahoma.  After analyzing data for the past hour, we have chosen the Hutchinson, Kansas as our target.  An upper disturbance is exiting to the northeast, clearing out the skies over Kansas and Oklahoma.  Sinking air behind the disturbance will strengthen the cap over western and central Kansas and Oklahoma, suppressing clouds and allowing strong warming.  Actually, too much warming causes a larger temperature-dew point spread, and increases the height of cloud bases, making tornadoes less likely.  What will happen is that the advancing dry line will break the cap as it pushes across western Kansas and Oklahoma.  This will allow storms to fire and become rapidly severe.  They will have the opportunity to become tornadic as they move eastward into air with lower LCL's (cloud base heights.)  We will be in position when that happens.  Forecasted CAPE values near WIchita for 21Z (4 p.m.) are just short of 4000 j/kg, which means that the atmosphere will be explosive.  More updates as we head north and northwest. 

Update 10:15 a.m.
Sitting in Norman...reviewng data on this Saturday morning.  All signs sitll point to a significant outbreak of tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas.  We will wait a few hours and see how things develop.  70 degrees dew points have spread northward across much of southern Oklahoma, being drawn northward on strong southerly winds caused by a deepening low over southwestern Nebraska.  The dryline is located over the western Texas Panhandle.  This feature will be important in the development of storms this afternoon as it surges eastward.  The best deep layer shear will be in Oklahoma, but the cap will be stronger here.  Further north, the cap will break sooner, but the deep layer shear is not as good.  We are going to deploy to south of Wichita so that we can break north or south depending on what happens.

Update 8:00 a.m.
Nearly all of the ingredients are coming together for a classic outbreak of tornadoes in the Central and Southern Plains today.  As I write this while eating breakfast at the Hilton Garden Inn in Oklahoma City, skies are mostly cloudy and winds are already blowing at about 15 mph thanks to low pressure over extreme northeastern Colorado.  This low will intensify today and is projected to deepen to 986 mb, quite strong for this time of year.  I will be interested to see which area we target today.  Anywhere from southern Nebraska to Central Oklahoma looks good for tornadoes.  Check back throughout the day for frequent updates from the field.

Original story
I was going to write about the movie “The Day after Tomorrow” today, but then I had the opportunity to head to Oklahoma to chase storms.   I will use this space today to relay real-time reports live from my second storm chasing adventure with Karen and Gene Rhoden. 

I will start out today explaining some of the parameters that will be in place across the Plains states.  For days, forecasters have been pointing to this as a day that had major outbreak potential.  As early as Monday, some forecasters were pointing to this day as having the greatest potential for tornado outbreaks in thirty years, and we know what happened then. 

The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska for today.  It is the earliest I remember such a release being issued.   That same area has been highlighted in a high risk outlook, the strongest wording SPC forecasters use.  Strong, long track tornadoes are possible.

A strong upper level trough will be sweeping across the western states today.  Very unstable air will cover much of the Plains ahead of the attendant cold front, with CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values soaring in the 4000 j/kg range.  A decent cap will keep a lid on the pot of convective stew until it is boiling by 5 p.m. or so.  Then storms will begin to fire along the dryline.  Winds will be blowing faster the high you go in the atmosphere, creating deep shear of nearly 50 knots, which will allow thunderstorms that develop to rotate and tilt, which is necessary for long lived supercells. Winds near the surface will be from the southeast, while a little higher up, they will be blowing from the southwest.  This turning of the low level winds with height will allow for high values of a parameter called Helicity and giving a high probability of tornadoes.  There is the potential for some violent, long track tornadoes across parts of the area from Kansas into Nebraska and South Dakota, over to Iowa and northern Missouri. 

The National Weather Service, emergency management and chasers and spotters will do a great job.  Watches and warnings will be excellent.  Hopefully a little luck will prevail and there will be no loss of life and limited property damage.