ABC 33/40's annual severe weather awareness tour begins tomorrow (Thursday) night in Hamilton!

Storm Alert 2006 is the original Alabama weather tour, which features some amazing Alabama weather stories, prizes, and your change to meet the ABC 33/40 team of meteorologists in person! This is our ninth year to bring the tour to Alabama. Here are some of the stories we are featuring this year:

*Alabama's greatest tornado disaster: March 21, 1932. Meet a man who survived the disater in Chilton County at the age of four, but he lost his parents and five brothers and sisters. This is an amazing story of survival. Alabama weather historian J.B. Elliott will share details of the event.

*Global warming. Fact, or myth? What does it mean for Alabama? Brian Peters will explore the controversial subject.

*The amazing 2005 hurricane season. What is ahead for 2006? Jason Simpson talks with Alabama's top hurricane expert, Dr. Keith Blackwell from the University of South Alabama. He has some fascinating things to say, as always.

*The all new ABC 33/40 Sky Cam network. What is it? And, why is it a big deal? It is also interesting that this exciting new weather technology was developed by an Alabama company.

As always, we will feature some very useful information you can use as we approach the 2006 spring tornado season. Pick up a free copy of our new Storm Alert brochure, which contains great safety information for your family. And, you can meet James Spann, John Oldshue, Jason Simpson, and Brian Peters.

The show tomorrow night in Hamilton will begin at 7:00 at the Bevill State auditorium;’ be sure and get there early to get a seat!

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow... 589 people have died due to exposure from the cold in the Ukraine in the past two weeks. Amazing to see the record cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. I know everyone here is talking about the mild January across the "lower 48", but our little corner of the world seems to be an exception. We are really blessed.

Dry weather continues through tomorrow. Another light freeze is likely tonight, but we warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.

THURSDAY: A rather strong vort max rolls into the state on Thursday, and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely. No severe weather; rain amounts of 1/2 inch look likely at this point. The 12Z GFS is a little slower, so a shower or storm is possible at almost any time on Thursday statewide.

FRIDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS follows the lead of the 06Z run, and does not develop a rapidly deepening surface cyclone like we saw on the 00Z last night. I am pretty suspicious of this, but if the new run is correct we won't have any severe weather problems Friday night. Lets hope that is correct, but with such a strong jet max punching overhead I don't believe it just yet.

We will maintain the risk of showers and storms late Friday and Friday night. We need to note it still looks like much of the day Friday should be dry before those storms arrive.

A strong Polar front will roll through late Friday night, sometime in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame....

A WEEKEND CHILL: The one thing all models are screaming is a big change to cold weather for the weekend. Our high of 43 still looks good for Saturday with an icy northwest wind. If we do not have a deep surface low to the north of us, we might have a chance of getting some sunshine on Saturday. But, a rather strong vort max will rotate through the base of the trough, and I still think we will have clouds much of the day. Might not be enough moisture for flurries, but I am not ready to take that out just yet.

The forecast low of 25 Sunday morning also looks good as a middle point... colder valleys might reach the upper teens if the wind can go calm. Sunday will be a dry but chilly day.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: An interesting impulse rolls through on Monday. Looks like this might bring snow to Tennessee north of I-40, with some light rain down this way.

LONG TERM: COLD is the word for the eastern half of the U.S. through much mid-February. No change in our thinking... and a wavy Arctic front just south of here could bring one or two winter storm threats. You can see that is almost every run of the GFS... we just can be specific so far out. There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days.

STORM ALERT 2006: We are looking forward to being in Hamilton Thursday night to kick off our ninth annual severe weather awareness tour across the state. We will be dealing with subjects like the 1932 Alabama tornado outbreak (our deadliest on record), "global warming", and thoughts on the coming hurricane season from Dr. Keith Blackwell, one of the smartest tropical guys in the world (he is down at the University of South Alabama in Mobile). And, we will show some cool new weather technology we are installing now. And yep, t-shirts for the first 500 people and a chance to win more prizes. Hope to see you along the way... get details here:

http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1

I knocked out the afternoon update a little early today since my program at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster is at 1:30. be sure and look for those kids on the KIDCAM at 5:00 today on ABC 33/40 News.

I love J.B.'s "by the numbers" post every morning... I have always been a big "numbers" guy. Great stuff!

* 10 is the percentage of Earth's surface normally covered by glaciers and ice sheets

* 16 is the number of inches of snow in Salt Lake so far this season

* 21 inches is the shortfall in snow for Salt Lake this season

* 110 is the number of inches of snow at Alta, Utah this morning. (The high country has fared much better than the valleys.) Alta is a ski area.

* 298 is the number of inches of snow on the ground at Lightning Ridge, Utah

* 218 inches is the snowpack at Harts Pass, Wyoming

* 90 was hot hot it was yesterday at McAllen, Texas

* 2 below zero was the Lower 48 low this morning at Crane Lake and Orr, Minnesota

* 51 below was the coldest in Alaska in the last 24 hours at Fort Yukon

* 27 was one of the lowest temperatures in Alabama this morning at Florence and Anderson

OTHER ALABAMA LOWS
28 in Pinson and Madison
29 in Moulton, Athens and Alabaster*
30 in Fort Payne, Mentone, Gadsden, Leeds
31 at Anniston Airport
32 in Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman
33 in Birmingham and at Little River Canyon
34 in Montgomery and atop Mt. Cheaha
36 in Mobile and at Shelby County Airport

* Michael Mills, 3340 Weather Watcher for Alabaster, reports his 29 low ties the lowest so far which has now occurred 8 times

* 3 is the number of cups of coffee I have had this morning, way behind the curve. All decaf

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

On this last day of January 2006 we will enjoy a bright mid-winter day with ample sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow stays dry, and a warming trend begins. We should be in the 60s tomorrow afternoon. But, be warned much colder air is poised to move in here over the coming weekend.

THURSDAY: A vort max coming out of Texas should bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. They might begin after midnight Wednesday night... for the moment it looks like the main window for rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. Thursday. Severe weather is not likely, and rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch seem like a good bet.

FRIDAY: The model run consistency is horrible on the development of this next feature. I think the stronger solution is correct you see on the 00Z GFS. A deep surface low moves from the piney woods of East Texas, to a point near Muscle Shoals, and on to Louisville. This would bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South, including Alabama, and SPC maintains a severe weather risk on their graphics as well.

The best time for thunderstorms seems to be from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night. If we can get those high CAPE values in here, wind profiles would suggest a tornado threat will be possible.

A WEEKEND CHILL: Following the round of Friday night storms, much colder air rolls in here over the weekend. In our forecast package, I have a high of 43 on Saturday. It might be a setup where we begin in the upper 40s at daybreak Saturday, and drop to near 40 during the day. It all depends on the cold frontal passage timing; in the forecast I am assuming a frontal passage in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame.

If we do have the deep surface low involved, clouds will be in place all day, and a few snow flurries will be possible over the northern third of Alabama.

By Sunday morning, with a clear sky, we should go well down in the 20s. I have 25 in our forecast package; colder spots should be closer to 20 degrees.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: An impulse will bring the risk of some light rain, mainly to the northern half of the state, on Monday. Doesn't look like a major system at all, and for the moment it looks warm enough for all liquid.

LONG RANGE: The maps still look very, very cold for the eastern one-half of the nation through much of February, generally speaking. Looks like the Arctic boundary might hover across the southern U.S., and if that thing gets wavy then look out for a winter storm threat or two. Stay tuned...

TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary school in Alabaster... and will be back in the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be on the server by 3:30 p.m. It will be quite interesting to see how the 12Z model runs handle the Friday/Saturday system.

STORM ALERT 2006: We kick off the show Thursday night in Hamilton at Bevill State... we begin at 7:00 but you might want to show up at 6:00 to get a seat. The place will be packed. Hope to see you there!

NOAA USES NEW POST-STORM RATING SYSTEM FOR BIG NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS
Winter Storms Ranked Like Tornado F-Scale

NOAA announced today that for the remainder of the winter season, its scientists will give the public a new, easy-to-understand scale to categorize major snowstorms after they effect the Northeast. The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, or NESIS, will quickly calculate the impact of a powerful snowstorm soon after it strikes, and give it a rank, similar to methods used to categorize the strength of tornadoes.

Until now, NOAA scientists had no way of sizing up a snowstorm's intensity with an index as understandable as the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes, or the Fujita scale for tornadoes. While winds are used to measure hurricane intensity, NESIS will rank the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. With NESIS, scientists can quickly assess a snowstorm's impact today, compare it with a storm of the past and assign it one of five categories: Notable, Significant, Major, Crippling or Extreme.

NESIS was jointly developed by Paul Kocin, a winter storm expert at The Weather Channel and Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C., is leading the effort to put NESIS into action, starting with this year's snowstorms.

"The snowfall impact scale is designed to look retrospectively at a recent snowstorm - not to forecast one," said Uccellini, also a noted winter weather expert. "With its rankings, the scale will also give a better perspective on how these major storms affected populations in the Northeast." The snowstorm that moved through Northeast on December 8-9 was a NESIS category 2 (Significant) storm.

NCDC combined a mathematical model that Kocin and Uccellini developed into an automated Geographical Information System that determines the magnitude of each major snowstorm soon after it strikes. NOAA's NCDC, the official archive of U.S. weather and climate records, will be expanding the analysis to review all major storms that have hit the Northeast since the late 1800s.

"NOAA's ability to quickly collect and quality control snowfall observations - as these events unfold - combined with the new NESIS system will help us provide preliminary snowstorm assessments in days instead of weeks," Karl said. He added that NESIS will offer a way to better assess the impact of major snowstorms on the population.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and nearly 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.

On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction: http://www.ncep.noaa.gov
National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Colder and drier air will move into Alabama tonight and tomorrow following a band of showers and storms late this morning. Those storms are now moving into the southeast part of the state where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect.

Tomorrow will be a sunny but cool day with lots of sunshine and highs in the 50s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Looks like Wednesday will be dry, but showers and storms are possible after midnight Wednesday night into the day Thursday with an upper impulse moving through. Severe weather is not likely, and rain probably won't be all that heavy on Thursday.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: A much stronger system will bring another round of showers and storms in here by Friday afternoon or Friday night. This one will be very robust, and the dynamics will certainly support a threat of severe weather. As always in January, there is some question concerning the amount of mT (maritime tropical) air available and the associated instability, but with the Gulf of Mexico being open for a couple of days, I am concerned severe storms will be a very real possibility. The 12Z GFS suggests the best chance of severe weather will come from about 3:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night, but that will probably change as we get closer to the event.

SATURDAY: A rapidly deepening surface low will move north of Alabama, and will pull down sharply colder air into the state with brisk north winds. Wrap around clouds look likely much of the state, and there could even be a few snow flurries over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. Places like Huntsville and Scottsboro might remain in the 30s much of the day, while we stuggle to get into the low 40s down here.

LONG RANGE: The weather still looks very cold for the eastern half of the U.S. through much of February. I do think the weather will be considably colder down this way as well, and some mischief is very possible in the southern branch of the storm track along the way. Stay tuned...

We are working on getting for Storm Alert 2006 production all finished up and ready to go... I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Extreme South and Southeast Alabama until 7 pm.

No part of North and Central Alabama included. Places like Mobile, Opp, Ozard, Dothan, just to name a few are included.

NWS Mobile has issued some Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Extreme South Alabama. A cluster of strong to severe storms was located over South central Alabama at 2 pm moving NE.

Elsewhere not much going on. A few lighter showers in the central part of the state.

Much, much drier air spreading in from the west.

It is in effect until 7 pm, Alabama time.

No part of North or central Alabama included.

Here are the specific counties:

From ABC 33/40 E-Warn :

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST
(7PM Alabama time)
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE
PIKE RUSSELL

17 of 67 counties included...everything is south of Montgomery.

* 16% of the land area in the USA Lower 48 had freezing or lower at mid-day

* 5.4% of the USA population was feeling freezing or lower. Amazing for January!

* 0% of the country (not counting Alaska) had zero weather

* 0 at Big Piney, Wyo., was the USA low this morning (excluding Alaska)

* 88 at Laredo and McAllen, Tex., Sunday's highest (James does radio wx for a McAllen station)

* -56 at Fort Yukon was coldest in Alaska this morning. Some parts of Alaska have "warmed" considerably

* 1.32 inches is how much rain Portland got in the last 24 hours as wet, wet weather continues

* 12.03 is how much rain Salem, Ore., has had this month about twice normal

* 32 inches in Salem in last 4 months--way, way too much

* 18 days is how many times the Birmingham temperature reached or exceeded 60 so far this month Extremely unusual.

* 5 is how many days the old themometer was at or above 70

* 61.38 degrees is the average high this month, 9 to 10 degrees too warm.

* 0.79 is the Birmingham surplus in rain this month/year

* 33 is how many times Jason Simpson and Josh Johnson had uncontrollable laughing spells when we all met for lunch in Trussville Saturday. They must have been laughing at Bill Murray.

* 27 below zero was the low temperature at New Market, north of Huntsville 40 years ago today. It is the lowest official temperature ever recorded in Alabama.

* 24 below was the low that same morning in Russellville

* 20 below was the low in Jasper

* 70 Sunday afternoon was the high in a number of Alabama locales, including Tuscaloosa and Pinson as the month of January remains exceptionally warm.

* 0 was the number of coffee filters that Dave had this morning when he tried to make coffee. He had to use a paper towel, Dave is a regular reader of the 3340 weather blog.

Everything was way over on the east side of Alabama at noon....and moving away. The showers extended from Dekalb County in the NE corner of the state down along the counties near the Georgia border into South Central Alabama.

Lightning detection equipment shows that the amount of lightning has decreased.

Strongest storm seems to be in Lee County, near Opelika.

This does not mean that all the showers and storms are gone for good. A cold front has worked its way into West Alabama. As it moves east, it could trigger a few more showers.