As we discussed on WeatherBrains tonight...the 3rd tropical depression of the year has formed in the Atlantic...
The official forecast weakens it in three days north of Hispaniola...never reasching tropical storm strength...
WTNT33 KNHC 010253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TD #3 Forms
July 31, 2006, 10:08 pm
by Bill Murray
in Tropical Weather
Today in Weather History
July 31, 2006, 10:01 pm
On this date in 1861...Captain Robert Fitz-Roy initiated a daily weather forecast for the following day for several regions of England. Fitz-Roy used data telegraphed to the Meterological Department in London from 15 stations across the country each morning. The service was well received by the public, but people in scientific circles criticized the effort saying that it lacked scientific merit. Disturbed by the criticism, Fitz-Roy killed himself less than 4 years later.
On this date in 1943...Weather forecasting is critical to many military operations. In 1943, Allied forces were planning a major bombing raid on the oil refineries at Ploesti, Romania. Because the nearest air bases were in North Africa and the distance to the target was at the limit of range for the B-24 aircraft, weather conditions had to be just right. The bombers could encounter no heavy headwinds coming or going and southerly winds would have to be present to spread the fires started by the incendiary bombs. Meteorologists studied 40 years of weather maps to discover that climatological conditions were right only in March and August. Planners chose August and conditions were right on August 1st. The raid was a success.
On this date in 1983...Andrews AFB, Maryland recorded a wind gust to 149 mph in a microburst that occurred just ten minutes after Air Force One had landed with President Reagan aboard. Such microbursts have been the cause of terrible plane crashes.
On this date in 1943...Weather forecasting is critical to many military operations. In 1943, Allied forces were planning a major bombing raid on the oil refineries at Ploesti, Romania. Because the nearest air bases were in North Africa and the distance to the target was at the limit of range for the B-24 aircraft, weather conditions had to be just right. The bombers could encounter no heavy headwinds coming or going and southerly winds would have to be present to spread the fires started by the incendiary bombs. Meteorologists studied 40 years of weather maps to discover that climatological conditions were right only in March and August. Planners chose August and conditions were right on August 1st. The raid was a success.
On this date in 1983...Andrews AFB, Maryland recorded a wind gust to 149 mph in a microburst that occurred just ten minutes after Air Force One had landed with President Reagan aboard. Such microbursts have been the cause of terrible plane crashes.
by Bill Murray
in Weather History
Isolated Storms Fading Away--7:50 pm Update
July 31, 2006, 7:59 pm
Those thunderstorms over West Alabama weakened greatly.
They sent an outflow boundry southward that is now moving across SW Jefferson and South Tuscaloosa County into North Bibb.
The strongest storm remaining at this hour is up over NE Alabama in Dekalb County.
And one smaller one down south over SW Wilcox County.
Unless storms flare up again, this will probably be our last update.
Gotta walk the dog...life goes on
They sent an outflow boundry southward that is now moving across SW Jefferson and South Tuscaloosa County into North Bibb.
The strongest storm remaining at this hour is up over NE Alabama in Dekalb County.
And one smaller one down south over SW Wilcox County.
Unless storms flare up again, this will probably be our last update.
Gotta walk the dog...life goes on
Early Evening Update--6:20 pm Report
July 31, 2006, 6:22 pm
By far, the strongest storms early this evening were clustered across Walker, Fayette and East Lamar County.
Dumping lots of rain and plenty of lightning.
Movement slow and erratic, but generally westward.
Smaller thunderstorms were:
South of Tuscaloosa
North Cullman County near Vinemont
Still other widely spaced ones around the state. Very small coverage area.
Dumping lots of rain and plenty of lightning.
Movement slow and erratic, but generally westward.
Smaller thunderstorms were:
South of Tuscaloosa
North Cullman County near Vinemont
Still other widely spaced ones around the state. Very small coverage area.
Fayette County Getting Wet--6 o'clock Report
July 31, 2006, 6:03 pm
Strong thunderstorms continue from near Jasper, in Walker County, westward into Fayette County. Much of Fayette County getting heavy rain, especially the east part.
Strongest part of the storm near Hubbertville. Movement has curved more toward the west. It was moving slowly NW or WNW.
NWS has a Significant Weather Alert for Fayette County until 6:30 and for Walker County until 6:45.
And...what is a Significant Weather Alert? It falls short of a warning.
There are other storms around the state but they are much smaller and not nearly as strong. They are also widely spaced. Total percentage of the state getting rain is very small.
Strongest part of the storm near Hubbertville. Movement has curved more toward the west. It was moving slowly NW or WNW.
NWS has a Significant Weather Alert for Fayette County until 6:30 and for Walker County until 6:45.
And...what is a Significant Weather Alert? It falls short of a warning.
There are other storms around the state but they are much smaller and not nearly as strong. They are also widely spaced. Total percentage of the state getting rain is very small.
Northwest Alabama Big Storms
July 31, 2006, 5:28 pm
NWS posts a Severe Thunderstorm Warning...
NW Walker County
Until 5:45 PM
It may have nickle size hail and gusts over 60
It was near Carbon Hill in NW Walker County, about 13 miles NW of Jasper
Moving slowly...nearly stationary...possibly drifting NW
Will be near Carbon Hill
Earlier there was a report of trees and power lines down north of Winfield (separate storm)
NW Walker County
Until 5:45 PM
It may have nickle size hail and gusts over 60
It was near Carbon Hill in NW Walker County, about 13 miles NW of Jasper
Moving slowly...nearly stationary...possibly drifting NW
Will be near Carbon Hill
Earlier there was a report of trees and power lines down north of Winfield (separate storm)
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
July 31, 2006, 5:01 pm
It is for SW Hale County and North Marengo County in West Alabama
Until 5:15 pm.
The storm was located over SW Hale County near Gallion.
Gallion is over the SW corner of Hale County some 12 miles south of Greensboro and east of Demopolis.
Moving SW at 10 mph
May have gusts over 60 mph.
Until 5:15 pm.
The storm was located over SW Hale County near Gallion.
Gallion is over the SW corner of Hale County some 12 miles south of Greensboro and east of Demopolis.
Moving SW at 10 mph
May have gusts over 60 mph.
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
Late Afternoon Thunderstorm Check--4:30 pm Report
July 31, 2006, 4:37 pm
Not many storms out there late this afternoon--especially when compared to the last two days, but there are some.
Over NW Alabama, there were several strong thunderstorms over Winston, Marion, Lawrence, Colbert and East Franklin County.
Erratic movement. The storms over Marion and Winston County seemed to be mosing slowly NW meeting some storms over Colbert and Franklin that were trying to move SE.
NWS/Huntsville issued a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Wanings in that area.
Widely scattered thunderstorms were also over SE Alabama at 4:30 pm. In West Alabama, isolated storms were over South Hale County and South Marengo County.
Over NW Alabama, there were several strong thunderstorms over Winston, Marion, Lawrence, Colbert and East Franklin County.
Erratic movement. The storms over Marion and Winston County seemed to be mosing slowly NW meeting some storms over Colbert and Franklin that were trying to move SE.
NWS/Huntsville issued a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Wanings in that area.
Widely scattered thunderstorms were also over SE Alabama at 4:30 pm. In West Alabama, isolated storms were over South Hale County and South Marengo County.
Getting Hot
July 31, 2006, 4:23 pm
The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server at:
A reminder the map discussion videos are now being produced in the QuickTime format. If you watch the video in IE (Internet Explorer), you will have to wait a minute or two until the entire file loads before you watch it. If you use Firefox or any other browser, it will begin playing immediately as it loads. Just another reason to use Firefox and dump IE! Yes, I like Firefox as well as Safari on my Mac.
Not many ways to say HOT! ! ! And it looks like the ridge pattern is becoming firmly entrenched and will stay in place through the upcoming week. So look for more hot weather as highs climb into the mid and upper 90s across a large section of the country, not just Alabama and the Southeast.
Latest GFS is still promising some relief from the heat but now that promise is about two weeks out instead of this coming weekend. Oh, well, such as it is with long range forecasting.
Be sure to be very cautious out there in the heat. Don't overdue it. Drink lots of water and stay out of the sun when possible.
Maybe you will be lucky and get one of those isolated showers out there on radar today. With no change in air mass, it looks like we will see scattered storms each day along with the heat, so a small percentage of us will get some relief if we get under one of those showers.
Will try to have the next web video map discussion on the server by 7:30 or so tomorrow morning.
-Brian-
by Brian Peters
in General Thoughts
Looking in All Directions--3 o'clock Report
July 31, 2006, 3:03 pm
ALABAMA
Thunderstorms scarce at mid-afternoon. However there were a few over the Extreme NW and over the Extreme South. In NW Alabama, the storms were in the general vicinity of Moulton, Florence and Tuscumbia. Movement was erratic, but generally they want to move toward the NW.
HOT WEATHER COUNTRY--TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM CDT
97 at Chicago
99 in St. Louis, Minneapolis, Wichita
100 in Topeka, Oklahoma City, Omaha and Wichita Falls, Tex.
101 in Hill City, Kans., Lincoln and Grand Island, Neb.
102 in Salina, Kans.
101 is the expected high for NYC tomorrow
101 also possible in Marquette, in far Upper Michigan, known for deep winter snow
THE RIGHT WAY TO COOL OFF
Yesterday, in North Dakota, it was a blistering 112 degrees in Bismarck. This afternoon, cool NW winds are blowing across the state. It was only 84 in Bismarck. Jamestown had a cool 74 with brisk NW winds.
Thunderstorms scarce at mid-afternoon. However there were a few over the Extreme NW and over the Extreme South. In NW Alabama, the storms were in the general vicinity of Moulton, Florence and Tuscumbia. Movement was erratic, but generally they want to move toward the NW.
HOT WEATHER COUNTRY--TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM CDT
97 at Chicago
99 in St. Louis, Minneapolis, Wichita
100 in Topeka, Oklahoma City, Omaha and Wichita Falls, Tex.
101 in Hill City, Kans., Lincoln and Grand Island, Neb.
102 in Salina, Kans.
101 is the expected high for NYC tomorrow
101 also possible in Marquette, in far Upper Michigan, known for deep winter snow
THE RIGHT WAY TO COOL OFF
Yesterday, in North Dakota, it was a blistering 112 degrees in Bismarck. This afternoon, cool NW winds are blowing across the state. It was only 84 in Bismarck. Jamestown had a cool 74 with brisk NW winds.