On this date, the second major hurricane of the year to hit the United States struck the Bayou Country of Louisiana with little warning. Heavy destruction was reported along the coast from Timbalier Bay in Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Landfall occurred between Port Eads and New Orleans. Winds reached hurricane force around nightfall and continued to increase until the eye crossed the shore about 11 p.m. By 10 PM, the storm surge was increasing water levels along the low-lying coastal sections. Tides reached fifteen feet along the Louisiana coast and sixteen feet on the Chandeleur Islands. Waves reached as high as the lantern at the Chandeleur Island Lighthouse. Over 2,000 people died in the storm, 779 from Cheniere Caminanda and 250 at Grand Lake alone.

The hurricane had slipped across the Gulf undetected after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula from the northwest Caribbean and struck without warning. Cheneire Camindad was the largest settlement on the Louisiana coast with a population of 2,000. Cheneire was never rebuilt. Nearly 800 of its residents died in the hurricane.

The combined death tolls of the October Louisiana hurricane and the August Sea Islands Hurricane made the 1893 Hurricane Season the second deadliest on record in the U.S., behind only the 1900 season.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

TROPICS: Looks like the name Stan will go the system in the far eastern Atlantic, near 12N/35W. That thing looks like a tropical storm now, but it will move north, and not get anywhere close to the U.S. mainland.

So, the tropical wave in the Caribbean, if it develops over the weekend, will get the name Tammy as it moves toward the northern Mexican coast or the far southern Texas coast.

And, lets not forget hurricane OTIS near the southern tip of Baja in the eastern Pacific. Our friend Otis will be moving up the Gulf of California, and the moisture is aimed toward Arizona and the southwest U.S. by the middle of next week. We will probably to have to forecast the chance of some locally heavy rain toward the middle of next week on KGCB-FM in Arizona, one of our affiliate radio stations.

AROUND HERE: Scroll down to see the long list of lows across Alabama this morning. Had plenty of spots in the mid to upper 40s.. sure felt nice. But, we will deal with rising temperatures and humidity levels over the weekend as the mercury heads back toward the mid 80s tomorrow and Sunday.

I really think most places will have no rain over the weekend. We will still mention a slight risk of a shower tomorrow and Sunday, but the chance of rain for the football games in Tuscaloosa and Auburn, and the races at Talledega, are tiny.

NEXT WEEK: We might see a few showers late Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday thanks to an approaching cold front and increasing moisture from both the south and the east, but the GFS is not very bullish on significant rain at this point.

There is some chance a little cooler air will filter in here in about a week, but the front will be hanging up somewhere over Alabama.

LONG RANGE: The GFS shows a significant upper trough over the eastern half of the nation in the October 15-17 time frame; that looks like a nice pop of chilly air if the model is correct.

I will be headed down to Demopolis for my annual "first Saturday in October" road trip into west Alabama. I will emcee the Miss Christmas On The River beauty pageant, something I have been doing for about the last 15 years. It has become one of the markers in the year for me; when it is time for the Miss COTR pagaent I know that fall has arrived, and the colder winds will soon follow, along the the holidays. The best time of the year...

Have a wonderful weekend.

A nice crisp morning across Alabama, although not much of the cool air reached the extreme south. Here is a list of morning lows 60 degrees or lower. (Updated at 10:45 am to include 14 additional Alabama reports)

45 in Belle Mina
46 in Valley Head, Florence and Meridianville
47 in Hartselle and at Russell Cave National Monument
48 in Desoto State Park, Hamilton and Huntsville Airport
49 in Decatur, Belgreen, Moulton, Hytop and Athens
50 in Russellville, Hazel Green, Cullman, Fort Payne, Muscle Shoals, Madison, Hackleburg, Hamilton
51 in Bankhead National Forest
52 in Section and Albertville
53 in Parrish, Jasper and Fayette
54 in Mentone, Collinsville and Gadsden Airport
55 in Pinson, Huntsville (atop Monte Sano) and Shoal Creek (el. 908 ft., east of Anniston)
56 in Leeds, Reform, Northport and Crossville
57 at Birmingham Airport, Wedowee, Helena, Talladega
58 at Tuscaloosa, Anniston (at elevation of 1201 feet) Trussville, Rainbow City and Centreville
59 at Livingston, Alexander City, Eutaw and atop Mt. Cheaha
60 at Anniston Airport, Clanton and Valley

OUTSIDE ALABAMA
37 in Jefferson, North Carolina
39 at Beech Mountain and on Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina
14 at Bondurant, Wyoming (USA Lower 48 states coldest)
25 at Barrow, coldest in Alaska

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Coolest temperature I have seen so far this morning is 49 up at Decatur... J.B. will run a full list of morning lows here a little later. Really feels good out there. But, the cool air won't last long as temperatures and humidity values will increase over the weekend.

I still think most places will be dry over the weekend. We have a slight risk of a shower in the forecast package for tomorrow and Sunday, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten. The impressive vort max on satellite images this morning over the southwest U.S. will move well north of Alabama as it dampens out.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday should be warm and dry. The GFS now shows moisture moving in here from the east on Wednesday, which would mean increasing clouds and maybe some rain if the model is correct. Then, a front moves in here on Thursday which might bring a shower, and then some cooler air by Friday. The GFS shows the front stalling near Montgomery... which means that cool air shot probably won't last long either. But then again shots of cool air are not supposed to last long around here in October. The season is very young.

TROPICS: We have a new hurricane over in the eastern Pacific... hurricane OTIS. All I can do is think of Andy, Barney, and that jail cell. Actually some moisture from Otis could bring the risk of heavy rain to the southwest U.S. by early next week.

Our wave in the Caribbean is still having a hard time getting its act together. I still think this one becomes tropical storm Stan, and the models have shifted northward. The GFS takes it toward Brownsville, Texas early next week so we will need to keep an eye on it.

Will have the next video update ready by 3:30 today.... enjoy your Friday!

The final numbers are in from Sunday’s tornado outbreak in Alabama, associated with the remnant circulation of former hurricane Rita. National Weather Service survey teams confirmed a total of eleven tornadoes: 8 of them in Tuscaloosa county, 2 in Winston county, and the other one in west Alabama’s Sumter county. Three of the tornadoes were rated F1 on the Fujita intensity scale, while the other eight were rated F0.

The most memorable tornado for us was the one captured live on the air during our “wall to wall” coverage Sunday, which lasted for about seven hours. This F1 tornado was seen live on ABC 33/40 for about 15 minutes as it moved across the western part of Tuscaloosa county. That same tornado was responsible for two injuries at a trailer park in Buhl. We made that video available on the Internet, and it has been downloaded thousands of times by people all over the world.

Our tower camera in Tuscaloosa has an amazing view of the western sky, and also captured the December 16, 2000 F4 tornado which killed 11 people in the southern part of Tuscaloosa county. That camera is located about 400 feet up on the old WCFT-TV tower, which is right by I-59/20 in the eastern part of Tuscaloosa at the old Channel 33 studio site. That is where I started my television career way back in 1978. Channel 33’s signal now is transmitted from a huge 2,000 foot tower in the northeast part of Tuscaloosa county east of Windham Springs, but that old tower has served us well with that camera being up there.

While September tornado events are relatively rare, we must remember we are coming up on our fall tornado season, in November and early December. Hopefully Sunday’s event will get us thinking about tornado safety!

I ran across a couple of items that I thought you might find interesting concerning NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency to the National Weather Service. NOAA and the NWS have been tasked in recent weeks with many facilities and employees affected by the storms. These items are just a couple of thousands of efforts by the folks who staff these agencies.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director, Max Mayfield, was named ABC’s person of the week this past week! Max and his team have clearly done an exemplary job and they are very deserving of this recognition. Max and NHC Deputy Director Ed Rappaport hosted Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff at NHC this week and provided a briefing on hurricanes and tropical storm prediction. David L. Johnson, Director of the NWS, also briefed Secretary Chertoff on NOAA’s response and recovery efforts for Katrina and Rita.

People were not the only ones stranded by recent hurricanes! On Monday a wild bottlenose dolphin was found swimming in a ditch in Cameron, LA. The dolphin had apparently washed ashore in the storm surge from Rita. NOAA Fisheries Service organized a rescue team from the Texas marine mammal stranding network, which was able to successfully reach the dolphin on Wednesday, and release it into the Gulf of Mexico. With help from the Coast Guard the dolphin was hoisted into a stretcher and moved to a nearby beach, where it was released into the Gulf. NOAA Fisheries Service marine mammal biologists reported the dolphin appeared healthy and alert, and the capture and release operation went very well.

-Brian-

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The cold front has come on through. The dewpoint in Muscle Shoals is down to 51, and Birmingham's dewpoint at this time is 64 and dropping.

Most places will be in the 50s by daybreak tomorrow. Not exactly sweater or jacket weather, but it is a start for fall weather fans. Model guidance is up a little... showing mostly upper 50s. Most places should be between 55 and 59, with cooler valleys closer to 50. I fully expect a few spots to dip their toe into the upper 40s.

Nice day tomorrow with ample sunshine and low humidity. The high should be in the low 80s.

Unfortunately this "cool snap" won't last long.

WEEKEND: A slight risk of a shower is in order for Saturday with a short wave passing to the north of the state, but showers should be very isolated if they form. I think Sunday is dry based on the latest model output. Afternoons will be warm, with mid 80s on both days.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week should be warm and dry. An approaching cold front should trigger a few showers by Thursday and Friday... not sure that front will have enough southward push to make it all the way through Alabama.

LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to advertise a nice eastern U.S. trough in the October 12-14 time frame; that looks like a good cool-down for much of the deep south. Maybe that one will get us down in the 40s.

TROPICS: No tropical depression in the caribbean yet... read Brian's post below. If something does develop there (and I still think it happens), it seems to be headed for the Yucatan and then on to the Mexican Gulf coast. No problem for the central Gulf coast.

Great audience today at Bluff Park Elementary School... sure enjoyed the visit and the fun time in the lunch room. Have to run to a 3:00 meeting for which I am 7 minutes late!

Here is the latest results from data collected during a Hurricane Hunter flight into the disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

-Brian-

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT FORMED. A LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
...OR 29.80 INCHES... WAS DETECTED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. HOWEVER... THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COLLOCATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

I don't know about you, but I kind of like JB's idea of a cold front warning! But I guess we have so many different weather warnings and alerts nowadays, that we really don't need a new one like that. But it is fun to pretend.

The cold front coming through today is really one of the first good cold fronts of the late summer and early fall time. I'm a relative newcomer to Alabama having only lived here 16+ years, but I've noticed that nature is pretty good about giving us a good cold front in mid to late August or early September as kind of a hint to the fact that Fall is not far away. But we didn't really have one this year. Several weak fronts came into the area and washed out and brought us a bit drier air, but no real good front.

Good front - what does that mean? At this time of year or even for the last month or so, I consider a good front as one that brings dry air and noticably cooler temperatures to central Alabama. In the Wnter and Spring, good cold fronts bring an air mass change with drier, colder air and often these fronts are accompanied by a line of showers or thunderstorms along or just ahead of the boundary between cold-dry air and warm-moist air.

Also, it's important to recognize that a front, whether it be a warm front or a cold front, is not really a thin line as we often see depicted on weather maps. A front is really a transition zone, a boundary, separating two air masses with different characteristics. The front we have today is certainly a good representation of a zone. The wind shift associated with a front is usually along the leading edge of the zone as we see today. I noticed that the wind shifted to the northwest at the Birmingham observation recorded at 7:53 am but there was not a significant dip in the dewpoint reading until 11:53 am. And I suspect we'll see an additional drop in the dewpoint at the 1 pm observation. My readings in Helena have done something similar just offset in time a trifle since I'm south of the Birmingham airport.

So the front marches across Alabama today, and as I look upstream I see lower 39 dewpoints in Missouri. The cool, drier air will be welcome - think I'll try to open up the house tonight and tomorrow - but as is often the case with early season cold fronts, the impact will not last long as temperatures climb back into the 60s for lows and 80s for high over the weekend.

But it really is fun to watch the weather in action like today. Life - and the weather - goes on!

-Brian-

Well, there is no such thing as a Cold Front Warning.

And, I am being a bit silly.

But let us "make up" a Cold Front Warning just for this morning.

Not really cold, but noticeably cooler and much lower humidity.

That's much better than a Tornado Warning or Hurricane Warning!

The front is now very close to Gadsden, Birmingham and Tuscaloosa.

Dew Point is 70 in Birmingham, but only 59 in Cullman, 58 in Huntsville and 54 in Muscle Shoals. Translation: It will feel much less humid.

At mid-morning, temperature was only 59 in Nashville and dew point 54

Temperature only 48 in Columbia, Missouri.

Low this morning in Chicago was 43.

Several inches of snow in the high country of Colorado.

Look at this change in Dallas-Fort Worth...
High yesterday was a sweltering 104
High today will only be 77
Low of 58 for tonight

Lows across North half of Alabama will be in the 50s tonight with some 40s in the cooler valleys.

A welcome committie is in order...maybe a parade

Life goes on...and so does the seasons...