Thanks to the gang here for allowing me a little down time. I will write about a few of the week's highlights later... but it has been great spending time with family over the past seven days.

Trying to get a good briefing this afternoon... the two big issues involve the risk of severe weather tomorrow night and Monday, and a big change to cold weather in about 6 days.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Looks like we will have our main threat of severe weather from about midnight tomorrow night through 8:00 a.m. Monday. Can't rule out an isolated tornado, but large hail and strong straight line winds would seem to be the main threat here. These storms will be ahead of a pre-frontal trough. The actual front comes in early Monday afternoon, and I guess some additional development is possible on the front; we will have to watch for that.

Best chance of organized severe storms during the pre-dawn hours Monday seems to be north of I-85 and east of I-65.

We note the new 18Z NAM only shows 0.07" of rain for Birmingham.

COLD WEATHER RETURNS: I am sure this will generate some nasty e-mail, but I just can't see how we have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s at the end of the week. Even my old nemesis, the GFS MOS, has a high of 39 degrees in Birmingham on Friday. I can't disagree with that. The cold will be especially stinging after the recent mild snap. For the 50s/30s lovers, hold off on the hate mail until a week from now... we will see who is right then!

COVERAGE: What a clash... a severe weather threat on the biggest football day of the year. ABC 33/40 is pretty much wall to wall football Monday, including the Auburn game at noon. Thankfully, it looks like the severe weather threat will be well to the east of here by football time. If by chance something does come up during the afternoon, we will be using our new live Internet stream plus the "dot twos"... 33.2 and 40.2 on the digital side. If we have tornado warnings we will have a small box open on the main signal. We will take the weather coverage full screen if we indeed have a real tornado emergency. But, with today's technology we can air both football and severe weather coverage at the same time.

And, once again, it is very unlikely we will have a conflict anyway if our current thinking is correct.

RADAR: Our radar system atop Double Oak mountain developed a problem last week... I am not sure we can have the problem resolved in time for the storms tomorrow night. With the holiday/vacation situation we are running on a skeleton staff on the engineering side. So... the static images on the web site are not available right now. However, you can use our new live stream to watch the NEXRAD images anytime. There is a big link on the front page of the ABC 33/40 site:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/

When you bring up the video window, you can move your mouse over the video and see two icons which give you the option to bring up the video in a Real Player window, which allows you to size the video anyway you want, or a full screen "theatre" option.

We will have plenty of updates here as the event gets closer... the 00Z model data will be very interesting to review tonight....

The Saturday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Dense fog this morning across Central Alabama with the temperature/dewpoint spread at zero. Fog should burn of toward mid-morning. Cold front came through during the early morning hours much as was forecast.

With no real change to the air mass, temperatures should be around 60 degrees today. A warm front should move northward on Sunday with a small chance for a shower and a few clouds but temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 60s. Some locations south of Birmingham area likely to push the 70-degree mark. With the return of southerly flow, moisture will climb, too, setting the stage for a severe weather outbreak on Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked Georgia and a small sliver of eastern Alabama for a moderate risk of severe weather for Monday. A capping inversion is likely to limit severe weather development early Monday until the trough gets a bit closer and can assist with some greater upward ascent. Wind profiles also suggest the possibility of long lived supercells with hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Timing of the event will be the key to whether we experience severe weather in Central Alabama or the severe weather develops a bit further east. Definitely a stay tuned situation.

That weather system moves east of us Tuesday but again no major change in the air mass for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the lower 60s. That changes toward the end of the week as the east coast trough sharpens up and we should see a return to colder conditions. Temperatures by the end of the week are likely to be back below normal. The front on Wednesday will probably come through dry for most of us.

Hope you have a great weekend and enjoy this unusually warm end to December and 2005.

-Brian-

David Wilhelm, the 12 year old son of Mike Wilhelm asks a very interesting question:

"What if they run out of names on the Greek Alphabet?"

Well, David, I think we can pretty much issue a "money-back-guarantee" that will never happen. But I was the one that said we would never have a named storm around Christmas! (Take note Chuck)

There are 18 more names after Zeta. If all those were used I would think it was the end of the world. (And, I am not trying to be funny)

And, I would head for the hills.

Can you imagine a tropical storm or hurricane with some of these names?

Eta...the next one...pronounced "Ay-tay"
Mu...pronounced "Mew"
Nu...pronounced "New"
Phi...pronounced "figh-or-fie"
Chi...pronounced "Kigh"
Psi...pronounced "Sigh"

Shall we send out a plane and do some cloud seeding on Zeta and end this for good? That was tried once and it backfired.

Great to see 12-year old David have a healthy interest in weather. Credit his dad for that!

But my answer to the original question is "I don't know" I doubt if it has ever been planned for.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING

Dense fog has formed across much of North and Central Alabama this morning in areas where skies have cleared. Use extreme caution if you will be driving through mid-morning. Visibilities will be severely reduced, hampering your ability to drive.

At 6 a.m., visibility was down to 1/4 mile at many reporting stations across the area. At the Birmingham Airport, skies were still mostly cloudy, and fog had not formed.

The fog should burn off and clouds should erode by midmorning across the area, giving way to sunshine. Temperatures will warm into the 60s across the area today.

It now appears that strong to severe thunderstorms will develop late Sunday night across Alabama, and continue into Monday morning. Of course, this time of day is more unfavorable for a major severe weather event. It appears now that this system may be a lot like the one that passed throgh Alabama Wednesday. Hail could be the primary threat early in the event.

As the system moves into East Alabama, the threat for supercells storms and the attendant damaging winds and even tornadoes may increase.

It is interesting to note that the Storm Prediction Center has outooked much of Georgia, South Carolina, eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky and a small sliver of East Alabama for severe weather on Monday. This is their strongest wording on a Day 3 outllok. They indicate that a significant tornado risk exists in the outlook area for Monday, especially during the afternoon and nighttime hours.

This is a developing weather situation, and everyone should pay close attention to forecasts issued throughout the weekend.

Continuing with my series on the top 25 weather stories of 2005:

19. February 27-Rescuers found more than they bargained for as they searched for victims after an F1 tornado ripped through a Palm Bay, Florida neighborhood. In one unroofed home, they found an elaborate indoor marijuana growing setup. The owner of the house, who was not home at the time was charged with possessing and manufacturing cannabis.

18. August 12-Two people were killed, twelve injured when a tornado destroyed fifty mobile homes in the Cottonwood Mobile Home Park in Wright, Wyoming, near Gillette. The tornado cut a path one and one half miles long and one quarter mile wide. They were the first Wyoming tornado fatalities since July 16, 1979. They were also the first tornado fatalities in the U..S. since March 22nd.

17. July 29 -A Boy Scout hike up Mount Whitney in California turned tragic when lightning struck the tarp that had set up in a meadow to shelter them from rain. The scout leader and one scout were killed. The scouts were from Troop 7001 in St. Helena, California. They had been on a nine day hike along the John Muir Trail. Scouts were able to keep one troop member alive by administering CPR for over an hour.

16. July 28-A significant tornado struck Birmingham, England during the afternoon. The tornado, one of the strongest to ever hit Great Britain, injured twenty three people, including three critically. Other tornadoes touched down in Peterborough. On average, thirty three tornadoes occur each year in the United Kingdom. They are generally less destructive than their American cousins. The Birmingham tornado had winds estimated at 130 mph, ranking it as a four on TORRO’s one to ten tornado scale. This corresponds to a strong tornado and makes this twister one of the strongest to ever hit England.

15. October 10-Atlantic tropical cyclone Vince made landfall in a most unusual location: southwestern Spain with top winds of 45 mph. It was the first tropical cyclone in recorded history to make landfall in Spain. The twentieth named storm of the crazy 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season formed on the 9th in the far eastern Atlantic southeast of the Canary Islands. It actually became a hurricane for a few hours. It moved northeastward, reaching land the next day, passing just south of the Portuguese coast and making landfall on the coast of Spain.

14. August 2-Air France Flight 358 , an Airbus A340-300, was on approach to Toronto’s Rearson International Airport during a thunderstorm. . As the plane landed, it overran the end of the runway and broke into pieces in a ravine. All 309 passengers and crew escaped before the plane exploded in flames and burned. Only 43 people were injured.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Afternoon temperatures at 3 pm were generally in the 60s with some upper 50s in the northeast part of the state. As soon as I finish this up, I'm going to take advantage of the beautiful afternoon and head out for a walk around the neighborhood. Hopefully, my dog Dakota will join me to keep me safe!!

And what about the tropics - Tropical Storm Zeta has formed way out in the Atlantic. See the posts below for additional information. The 2005 hurricane season just seems to roll on!!

The approaching cold front was nearing the Mississippi River at mid-afternoon and is expected to blow through here early Saturday morning. Clouds should increase after dark with not a great deal of rain expected. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, less than a quarter of an inch. A few stronger storms with thunder could occur north of Interstate 20.

Clouds should decrease rapidly tomorrow with a good deal of sunshine expected and not much change in temperature with highs around 60 in central Alabama.

Sunday will see a warm front move northward through the state with temperatures pushing the mid and upper 60s - maybe even the 70-degree mark. Dewpoints will be on the climb too ahead of the next short wave and surface cold front. CAPE values are forecast to be around 1000 with lifted indices around -5, so strong to severe storms are possible Monday. A capping inversion could limit development, so we'll have to wait and see how strong that cap might be. Wind profiles are fairly uniform from the surface up, so the main threat would seem to be large hail.

The cold front moves through on Monday with another system close on it's heels. But this next system is expected to be moisture starved so I'm not expecting any serious rain chances. The GFS has been consistent for a couple of runs now at intensifying the amplitude of this mid-week system and bringing much colder air into the southeastern US by the end of the first week of 2006. Assuming this is correct, temperatures will drop back to below normal once again. The NAO remains forecast to be neutral, so we'll just have to see if that does indeed develop. But afterall, it is about to be January.

I've enjoyed filling in for James Spann this week while he enjoys a well deserved week off. He's a tough act to follow, so I hope I've lived up the high standard he has set.

I'll be back Saturday and Sunday with morning updates, and then I get to fill-in for Jason during the first part of the first week of 2006. Have a great weekend.

-Brian-

Here is the full text of the first advisory on Tropical Storm Zeta. This simply blows my shrinking mind:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
--

From ABC 33/40 E-Warn :
WTNT35 KNHC 301710
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM...THE 27TH OF THE YEAR...FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...A
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...25.0 N... 36.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Brings up an interesting question.

If this tropical storm lasts past January 1, will it count for two seasons?

------------------------------------------
WONT41 KNHC 301605
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS IN PREPARATION AND WILL BE ISSUED IN AN HOUR
OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lots of weather features for the next several days. Today should be a very nice late December day with lots of sun and temperatures climbing into the lower 60s. Nice when normal values for this time of year are in the lower 50s. But a quickly moving front will come through tonight and early Saturday probably exiting the state by mid-day so our greatest chances for showers will come from about 9 pm tonight to 6 or 7 am tomorrow. Clouds should dissipate quickly too leading to a mostly sunny afternoon with highs in the 50s.

Sunday will be a transition day with a warm front moving north and temperatures climbing back into the 60s. Monday a vigorous short wave with a slight negative tilt approaches the area with a cold front expected to move through central Alabama at mid-day. I still have concerns about the threat of severe weather and SPC has much of the Southeast US in their 4 to 8 day outlook area for Monday. While the computer models are forecasting a number of the parameters coming together, there are a few doubts creeping into the thinking. Deep moisture could be limited with values only forecast to reach about 1 inch of preciptable water. Also strong southwesterly flow at 850 and 700 millibars suggest a cap on the atmosphere and surface dewpoints may not be as high as what was suggested yesterday. Nevertheless there continues to be concern and it is something that we'll continue to watch.

Tuesday will be another nice day with slightly cooler temperatures. Temperatures recover again on Wednesday before the next system which is looking anemic on moisture but should bring at least small chances for showers.

The upper level flow pattern takes on a higher amplitude on Thursday with the most substantial cool down we've seen in over a week. Temperatures are likely to get back into below normal territory. And the longer range outlooks suggest a brief moderation before another long wave trough develops over the eastern US suggesting more colder than normal weather.

So enjoy this good weather as we get ready to usher out 2005 and welcome in 2006. Hope you have a great day. Next discussion on the server 4-ish this afternoon.

-Brian-

As 2005 slowly slips away from us, it is time to look back on the year in review from a weather perspective. I am sure you already guess the top stories. But here is my list of the top twenty five weather stories of 2005, starting with #25 and going up the list....

25. June 16, 2005: The Goodyear blimp Stars and Stripes crashed during a thunderstorm near Coral Springs, Florida. One of three blimps operated by the company, the accident put a crimp in the schedule of appearances at NFL games.

24. August 8, 2005: Low clouds at the landing site at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida forced mission controllers to wave off the Space Shuttle Discovery on both of its two landing opportunities at the end of its Return to Space mission. The Shuttle would eventually be forced to land at Edwards AFB in California.

23. April 6, 2005: A morning swarm of tornadoes buzzed Mississippi as at least three strong, long track tornadoes moved across the state.

22. September 16, 2005: A historic event occurred as NOAA flew its first unmanned aircraft, or Aerosonde, into Hurricane Ophelia while it was moving along the East Coast.

21. July 19, 2005: The all time record high of 117F at Las Vegas’ McCarran International Airport was tied as a southwestern heat wave continued. The daytime high of 117F, combined with the morning low of 95F, resulted in an average temperature for the date of 106F, breaking the old record of 105F.

20. September 8, 2005: The official nickname of Iowa State University is the cyclones. One struck the University on this date when a small tornado touched down briefly on campus.