Still no problem thunderstorms in progress for North and Central Alabama at 10:15 pm. Big storms in extreme south.

Tornado Watch continues for 21 counties in South and Southeast Alabama until midnight, CST. Generally from Montgomery southward.

We are in constant contact with the NWS through a unique IM conference setup. Here is their latest thinking on the unfolding severe weather threat:

Danger for West Alabama 3 am or 4 am.

Birmingham around 6 am

Montgomery area around 6 am toward early afternoon.

These times are not sealed in stone, of course.

The Storm Prediction Center will probably extend the moderate risk area westward to cover more of Alabama...possibly to include the Birmingham area...or even more.

Not good news.

The latest post on that had the moderate risk for Georgia and the east ege of Alabama.

We will be up all night...watching and waiting...and taking in coffee intraveneously...

Stay tuned...

Only scattered mostly light showers at 9:45 pm over a big percentage of North and Central Alabama. Strong thunderstorms limited to Extreme South and Southeast Alabama.

The Tornado Watch continues for 21 counties in South and Southeast Alabama until midnight, CST.

Still looking like a past-midnight event for the north half of the state...maybe even as late as daylight Monday morning.

Development beginning to take shape to the west. A line developing over North and West Mississippi but so far not strong at all.

A troubling thought...the NWS (Storm Prediction Center) is thinking of extending the moderate risk area westward to cover more of Alabama Monday.

As it stands now, the moderate risk area covers Georgia but only the east edge of Alabama.

Stay tuned...

Very little going on over the north 80% of Alabama at this time. Just some widely spaced mostly light showers.

You have to go deep into South Alabama to find strong thunderstorms.

Generally from about Brewton over toward Dothan.

Movement is toward the ENE.

For North Central and North Alabama, looking more and more like a very late night and Monday morning event.

More on that a little later.

The Tornado Watch continues for Southeast Alabama until midnight, CST.

Here is an update on Alabama's weather at 7:35 p.m.

No warnings are in effect for any part of Alabama at this hour. Tornado Watch Number One continues for Southeast Alabama until 12 midnight.

An upper level disturbance is moving across Central Alabam tonight. This disturbance combined with the very warm and moist airmass over South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to produce strong to severe thunderstorms. So far there have been reports of tornadoes in Alabama. There were reports of nickel sized hail at Red Level in Covington County and Bayou La Batre in Mobile County.

A warm front is advancing northward over North Alabama. Dwpoints have risen into the lower 60s across Central Alabama, including 61F at Birmingham International Airport. Some drier air is working its way down to the midlevels over South Alabama on the underside of the disturbance.

Southerly surface winds will continue to funnel moist air into Alabama overnight. As a large upper trough begins to overspread the area later tonight, instability will increase and thunderstorms are expected to form over the northern half of the state.

These storms should become severe, with the possibility for large hail, damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes overnight. The activity should shift east during the pre-dawn hours.

Showers were beginning to break out along the Mississippi River at 7:30 p.m. This is the initial development of the activity that will affect Alabama later tonight.

Intense thunderstorm activity is over extreme South Alabama tonight, where instability levels are highest. The activity has weakened a bit in the past couple of hours. A tornado watch continues until 12 midnight for Southeast Alabama and adjacent areas of the Florida Panhandle and western Georgia.

Moisture levels continue to increase over Alabama tonight behind a warm front that is pushing into the Tennessee Valley tonight.

Dewpoints at Alexander City and Tuscaloosa have risen to 61F and at Birmingham Airport they have risen to 59F. Moisture levels should continue to slowly increase overnight, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s across the areas by midnight. Dew points will jump some 30 degrees since this morning at Birmingham. The dewpoint at Gadsden was 50F.

All of this moisture will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop later tonight over North Alabama when cooler air aloft assocated with an upper trough that will be moving over the state overspreads the wamr, moist air near the surface.

Indications are that there will be sifficient deep layer shear for organized thunderstorms to develop later tonight, most likely after midnight. Supercell thunderstorms will produced large hail and damaging winds, and low level shear may be sufficient for a few tornadoes to form overnight. These storms will work their way east during the morning hours. The environment over extreme East Alabama may be even more conducive to severe weather tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center has extreme East Alabama in a rare Moderate Risk area on the Day Two Outlook. This Moderate Risk area covers much of Georgia and extends into South Carolina... eastern Tennessee... eastern Kentucky... western North Carolina... southwestern Virginia... West Virginia and Ohio. We expect a significant outbreak of severe weather tomorrow when this activity moves into these areas.

All Alabamians should pay close attention to the latest forecasts, watches and warnings tonight and Monday morning.

The NWS in Jackson reports that a tornado touched down 4 miles ENE of Sandy Hook, MS at 3:35 p.m. CST this afternoon. This is in Marion County along Highway 43, near the Louisiana/Mississippi border.

This will likely be the first official tornado of 2006. I am sure we will have a few more before tonight is over and several more tomorrow.

I thought you might find this excellent report from the NWS Birmingham interesting. It gives a review of Alabama's weather in 2005.

Note that the state observed a record number of tornadoes this year.

NOUS44 KBMX 310432
PNSBMX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1032 PM CST FRI DEC 30 2005

...2005 WEATHER YEAR IN REVIEW...

CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE SINCE THE 21ST CENTURY
STARTED AND THE YEAR 2005 WAS NO EXCEPTION. THE YEAR WAS HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN ICE STORM, 5 TROPICAL SYSTEMS, AND A RECORD NUMBER OF
DOCUMENTED TORNADOES.

THE ACTIVE YEAR WAS CHRISTENED BY AN ICE STORM ON JANUARY 28TH AND
29TH. FREEZING RAIN FELL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA GENERALLY
AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN TO ROCKFORD TO OPELIKA.
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING WAS EXPERIENCED FROM NEAR HEFLIN TO
WEDOWEE TO LAFAYETTE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH WERE OBSERVED.
THE ICE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND CAUSED NUMEROUS TREES
TO BREAK UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE.

THE 2005 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON WAS UNPRECEDENTED IN
NUMBER. THIRTY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN; 27
WERE NAMED STORMS, 13 WERE HURRICANES, AND 7 WERE MAJOR HURRICANES.
FIVE OF THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS DIRECTLY AFFECTED CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ARLENE AFFECTED CENTRAL ALABAMA JUNE 11TH AND 12TH. ARLENE'S AFFECTS
WERE RATHER MINOR AND WAS THE WEAKEST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. ARLENE PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 5
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. ESTIMATED
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WERE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MILES AN HOUR. SEVERAL
TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN AREAWIDE. MINOR LOCAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED.

CINDY AFFECTED CENTRAL ALABAMA ON JULY 6TH. CINDY'S OUTER BANDS
PRODUCED EIGHT TORNADOES; 2 IN AUTAUGA COUNTY, 2 IN MACON COUNTY, 2
IN ELMORE COUNTY, 1 IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY, 1 IN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY, 1
IN CHAMBERS COUNTY, AND 1 IN LEE COUNTY. ALL OF THESE TORNADOES
WERE RATED F0 OR F1 ON THE FUJITA DAMAGE INTENSITY SCALE. THE F1
TORNADO IN MACON COUNTY INJURED ONE MAN WHILE HE WAS WORKING IN HIS
BODY SHOP. ALL OF THE TORNADOES OCCURRED DURING DAY LIGHT HOURS.
NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED OFF AS A RESULT OF THE TORNADOES.

DENNIS AFFECTED CENTRAL ALABAMA ON JULY 10TH. THIS WAS THE SECOND
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WITHIN A WEEK. DENNIS'S LOCAL
AFFECTS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES, THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS AND A FEW HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE. A FEW ROADS AND
BRIDGES WERE WASHED OUT. MINOR RIVER FLOODING ENSUED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WERE 70 TO 80
MILES AN HOUR. THESE POWERFUL WINDS PRODUCED DAMAGE IN ALL 39
COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THOUSANDS OF TREES WEE BLOWN DOWN
AND POWER OUTAGES WERE WIDESPREAD. TWO INJURIES WERE SUSTAINED DUE
TO FALLEN TREES.

KATRINA AFFECTED CENTRAL ALABAMA ON AUGUST 29TH. AFTER THE
CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE ENDURED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IN NEW ORLEANS,
KATRINA MOVED TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL WAS A RATHER MINOR
CONTRIBUTOR, WITH ONLY 1 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65. NO FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED AND ONLY MINOR RIVER
FLOODING WAS PRODUCED. KATRINA PRODUCED 4 TORNADOES WHICH OCCURRED
IN MACON, CALHOUN, BULLOCK, AND TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES. THE BIGGEST
STORY WITH KATRINA WAS THE WIND. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS WERE 80 TO 90
MILES AN HOUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SUMTER, MARENGO, AND GREENE
COUNTIES. MANY THOUSANDS OF TREES WERE DOWNED AREAWIDE AND POWER
OUTAGES WERE WIDESPREAD AND LENGTHY. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN ALL
39 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED BY
THE FALLEN TREES AND MANY MAJOR ROADWAYS WERE BLOCKED FOR HOURS.

RITA AFFECTED CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SEPTEMBER 25TH. THE OUTER BANDS OF
RITA PRODUCED ONE THE THE LARGEST SINGLE DAY TORNADO OUTBREAKS IN
ALABAMA HISTORY. RITA ACCOUNTED FOR 21 TORNADOES IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. TUSCALOOSA COUNTY ENDURED 10 OF THESE
TORNADOES, 3 F1'S AND 7 F0'S. SEVERAL OF THESE TORNADOES AFFECTED
AREAS NEAR ELROD AND BUHL. TWO PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY. OTHER COUNTIES THAT EXPERIENCED MULTIPLE TORNADOES INCLUDE,
GREENE, PICKENS, WINSTON, LAMAR AND FAYETTE. SUMTER AND MARION
OBSERVED ONE TORNADO EACH. MOST OF THESE TORNADOES OCCURRED DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MANY WERE CAPTURED ON FILM OR VIDEO.

DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNT TROPICALLY INDUCED TORNADOES, THE
STATE OF ALABAMA HAS OBSERVED A RECORD NUMBER OF DOCUMENTED TORNADOES
IN A YEAR. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE PRELIMINARY NUMBER OF TORNADOES
STATEWIDE WAS 74. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 55 IN 2001. IN FACT, THE
39 CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVED BY THE BIRMINGHAM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAVE OBSERVED 55 TORNADOES, THE PREVIOUS
RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA COUNTIES WAS 34 TORNADOES IN 2000. BASED ON DATA FROM 1961
THROUGH 2001, THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF TORNADOES IN A YEAR FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS 17. THE YEAR 2005 RECEIVED AN ASTOUNDING 324 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER STATISTICS:
DAYS WITH TORNADOES..........9
DAYS WITH SEVERE WINDS.......36
DAYS WITH SEVERE HAIL........32
DAYS WITH FLASH FLOODING.....20

PRELIMINARY DATA:

HOTTEST DAY
BIRMINGHAM.....97 AUG 21ST
MONTGOMERY.....98 AUG 21ST
ANNISTON.......98 AUG 21ST
TUSCALOOSA.....99 AUG 21ST
CALERA.........95 AUG 21ST
TROY...........96 SEVERAL DAYS

COLDEST DAY
BIRMINGHAM.....18 JAN 24TH
MONTGOMERY.....19 DEC 22ND
ANNISTON.......16 JAN 24TH
TUSCALOOSA.....19 JAN 24TH
CALERA.........20 JAN 24TH
TROY...........18 JAN 24TH

WETTEST DAY
BIRMINGHAM.....2.48" MAY 29TH
MONTGOMERY.....3.65" MAR 27TH
ANNISTON.......1.74" NOV 21ST
TUSCALOOSA.....3.51" SEP 10TH
CALERA.........3.17" JUL 10TH
TROY...........2.66" MAR 27TH

WETTEST MONTH
BIRMINGHAM.....9.50" JUL
MONTGOMERY.....10.35" MAR
ANNISTON.......6.62" JUL
TUSCALOOSA.....7.13" JUN
CALERA.........9.83" JUL
TROY...........9.44" AUG

DAYS GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES:
BIRMINGHAM.....54
MONTGOMERY.....86
ANNISTON.......46
TUSCALOOSA.....84
CALERA.........35
TROY...........50

DAYS GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES:
BIRMINGHAM.....6
MONTGOMERY.....18
ANNISTON.......3
TUSCALOOSA.....18
CALERA.........0
TROY...........3

DAYS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES:
BIRMINGHAM.....36
MONTGOMERY.....34
ANNISTON.......48
TUSCALOOSA.....44
CALERA.........36
TROY...........39

DAYS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20 DEGREES:
BIRMINGHAM.....4
MONTGOMERY.....3
ANNISTON.......4
TUSCALOOSA.....2
CALERA.........1
TROY...........3

ADDITIONAL YEAR END STATISTICS WILL BE ADDED AND UPDATED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY 2006 WHEN ALL THE DATA HAS BEEN COMPILED. THE
DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT SHOULD BE TREATED AS PRELIMINARY.


$$

LINHARES

The first tornado watch of 2006 has been issued. It covers parts of South Alabama and southern Georgia. It goes until 12 midnight. The watch covers Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Elmore, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Montgomery, Pike and Russell counties. This is well south of our area.

For the second straight year, Alabama has been part of the first tornado watch of the year.

A couple of radar notes at 5:25 p.m...

Radar indicates a developing thunderstorm over southeastern Tuscaloosa County about 13 miles ESE of Tuscaloosa and about 36 miles SW of downtown Birmingham. It is moving NE at about 35 mph and could affect the Birmingham area starting before 630 p.m.

Light showers are lined up just ahead of the warm front which is pushing north into the Tennessee Valley.

Additional showers and storms may form in the warm sector this evening before the main show begins later tonight.

Still waiting on the first severe weather watch of 2006. I do not think we will have to wait long. fact, I am kind of surprised we have not seen one for South Alabama. (Late note at 5:12 p.m: we just heard that a tornado watch is being issued for South Alabama, along and 75 miles either side of a line from 15 miles SSW of Evergreen to 50 miles SSE of Macon, GA. It goes until midnight.)

Numerous strong storms are over South Alabama this afternoon. The airmass over that part of the state is very unstable with dew points in the middle and upper 60s and CAPE values over 1000 j/kg over a large area. A tornado warning was is in effect earlier for Pike County, including the Troy area, but it has been cancelled.

The NWS Mobile just issued a Tornado Warning for Escambia County, Florida for a storm about 20 miles north of Pensacola.

The warm front continues to move north, but looks like it might have slowed down a bit. Shower activity along the frontal boundary was diminished a bit, but new showers are forming behind the warm front.

The front separates dew points in the 60s to the south from dewpoints in the 50s to the south. This warm front will continue to meander slowly northward overnight, spreading warm, moist air northward. The warm, moist air will be the fuel when the upper trough starts to swing across the area later tonight. At that time, storms should fire over North Alabama.

At 5p.m., the dewpoint had risen to 57F at the Birmingham Airport. A little light rain was falling with a SE wind at 8 mph.

A few showers had broken out over Hale, southeastern Tuscalosa and Bibb County at 5:10 p.m. Additional showers had formed over northwestern Jefferosn County. This activity could develop further during the next hour. More showers and a few storms will form during the evening hours in the expanding warm sector of the storm system that is enveloping Alabama.

We will deal with a threat of severe weather generally after 10 p.m. in North Alabama with the possibility of large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

Residents of Alabama should pay close attention to watches and warnings issued overnight and have a reliable source for receiving warnings before retiring for the night.

At 4:15 pm, a band of showers all the way across North Central Alabama from Lamar and Fayette County in the west to Clay, Cleburne, Randolph in the east.

Nothing really heavy...most of them are light.

By far, the strongest thunderstorms were over South Alabama where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning continued for Escambia, Baldwin and Mobile County until 4:30 pm.

To show the strength of the storm systems to the west:

Wind gusts to 52 mph, Oklahoma City this afternoon, no storms involved.

Gusts to 64 mph in West Texas at Lubbock (home of Texas Tech University) A very dry wind. Dew point only 9 in Lubbock. Blowing dust.

Gusts to 35 mph at Dallas

The intense low pressure area centered along the Kansas Okhahoma border at 4 pm.

Record high of 81 in Dallas this afternoon, far, far above normal

This last storm in the far west is causing all sorts of hardship. On Mt. Rose, Nev., in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the storm has dumped 60 inches of snow...
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