The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
There are times when I do believe you can look at too much data when putting a forecast together. It can make your head spin, give you heartburn, and make you want to slap your sister. This might be one of those days for us in the weather office. Model madness continues...
But, our job here is to sort through the madness and tell you what we think will happen. So... here goes:
TOMORROW: Wet weather returns with a round of showers and thnderstorms statewide. The new day 2 convective outlook has a slight risk of severe storms along the Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida Gulf coast. No severe weather is expected here, but rain amounts from 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely thanks to a small but rather robust upper short wave.
FRIDAY: Much of the day should be dry. The sun might shine at times, and there is just an outside risk of an afternoon shower.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: The GFS and NAM are about as different as day and night. We lean toward the NAM, which develops a surface low near Mobile (18Z run of the NAM) Friday night, then moving it to near Athens, Georgia by Saturday afternoon as it deepens. The NAM spreads a large mass of precipitation into Alabama with this feature, and we will mention a chance of rain Friday night (mostly light rain; no severe weather).
Much colder air rolls into the state on Saturday, and it looks like temperatures will fall through the day. And, if the NAM is correct, that light rain could change to light snow Saturday before ending. We don't expect any accumulation due to the warm ground. An icy northwest wind will make temperatures feel colder; we will probably fall from the mid 40s into the 30s.
We need to note the GFS shows no surface low around here; it develops a weaker low closer to the Atlantic coast later in the weekend.
One way or another, Saturday will be blustery and cold. Clouds will probably hang tough all day. We will be hoping for better model agreement in the days to come, but it is a very, very interesting forecast.
SUNDAY: We should be well down in the 20s as the day begins with a clear sky; some of the colder valleys might even reach the upper teens. The day will be mostly sunny but chilly with highs in the 45 to 49 degree range.
MONDAY: A fast moving wave could bring a little light rain late Monday and Monday night, but it does not look like a major rain producer. Any snow should be north of I-40 up in Tennessee/Kentucky.
BIG TIME COLD: The pattern is changing in a big way... and the weekend event signals the beginning. Much colder air is about 7 to 8 days away... if the GFS is correct we are talking highs in the 30s and lows in the teens by the end of next week, with several other "Arctic dumps" ahead for mid-month.
And, yes, waves on the Arctic front will bring winter storm THREATS to parts of the Deep South along the way. Cold weather/snow fans should like the wsy the maps are looking. Nobody will like their utility bill come March... it will be very ugly. Be ready now for a very cold February.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are putting the finishing touches on the production elements for the weather tour today... we kick it off tomorrow night in Hamilton at 7:00 at Bevill State. I sure get the idea the place will be packed... you might want to show up by 6:00 to get a seat. We hope to see you there...
The next video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
Who Ya Gonna Believe?
February 1, 2006, 3:57 pmWeather By The Numbers--Wednesday Edition
February 1, 2006, 10:58 am
* 30 is the number of years in a row that residents of St. Paul Island, Alaska did not hear thunder or see lightning. When it finally happened, a lot of people were scared especially those 30 or younger who had never seen or heard a thunderstorm
* 0 is the chance of thunder there today. Their low this morning was 6 with 16 inches of snow
* 11.51 is the number of inches of rain in Seattle this January, well over twice normal
* 105 is the number of days with not a drop of rain in Phoenix as of yesterday--most ever
* 0 is the chance of rain in Phoenix for the next 7 days (official NWS forecast)
* -51 is the coldest in Fairbanks during January (very, very cold even for them)
* -47 was the coldest in Alaska this morning at Point Lay
* 3 pm until 7 pm is when more than half of all USA tornadoes occur.
* 43 was the lowest soil temperature at the standard 4-inch depth in Oneonta during January
* 19 is how many days it was 60 degrees or warmer in Oneonta in January. Amazing (from the Alabama Mesonet)
* 61.19 was the average high for Birmingham during January
* 40.23 was the average low.
* 8.1 is how much above normal January was (very warm month)
* 19 days had highs 60 or above
* 9 days were 65 degrees or higher
* 5 days had 70 or higher. All this means that if we dont have some very cold temperatures in February, we will get "bugged" this coming summer. A zillion varmints
* 15 is how many degrees Billings, Mont., was above normal during January making it the warmest January on record
* 20 degrees is how far above normal it will be in parts of Nebraska and South Dakota today
* 24 was the lowest temperature recorded at Black Creek, in NE Etowah County this January. Vic Bell, the 3340 Weather Watcher has been keeping records there six years. in the six previous Januarys, lows included 11 last January, 14 in 2004, 6 in 2003, 13 in 2002 and 11 in 2001
* 1 was the lowest in the Lower 48 this morning, Gunnison, Colo., but that may change when later reports come in
* 26 was one of the coldest in Alabama this morning at Desoto State Park
OTHER SELECTED ALABAMA LOWS
27 in Jasper, Gadsden and Fort Payne
28 in Alabaster and Pinson
31 in Anniston and Huntsville
32 in Cullman
33 in Mentone
34 in Birmingham, Selma and at Shelby County Airport
35 atop Mt. Cheaha
40 in Clay (near Deerfoot parkway) at an elevation of 1032 feet
* 0 is the chance of thunder there today. Their low this morning was 6 with 16 inches of snow
* 11.51 is the number of inches of rain in Seattle this January, well over twice normal
* 105 is the number of days with not a drop of rain in Phoenix as of yesterday--most ever
* 0 is the chance of rain in Phoenix for the next 7 days (official NWS forecast)
* -51 is the coldest in Fairbanks during January (very, very cold even for them)
* -47 was the coldest in Alaska this morning at Point Lay
* 3 pm until 7 pm is when more than half of all USA tornadoes occur.
* 43 was the lowest soil temperature at the standard 4-inch depth in Oneonta during January
* 19 is how many days it was 60 degrees or warmer in Oneonta in January. Amazing (from the Alabama Mesonet)
* 61.19 was the average high for Birmingham during January
* 40.23 was the average low.
* 8.1 is how much above normal January was (very warm month)
* 19 days had highs 60 or above
* 9 days were 65 degrees or higher
* 5 days had 70 or higher. All this means that if we dont have some very cold temperatures in February, we will get "bugged" this coming summer. A zillion varmints
* 15 is how many degrees Billings, Mont., was above normal during January making it the warmest January on record
* 20 degrees is how far above normal it will be in parts of Nebraska and South Dakota today
* 24 was the lowest temperature recorded at Black Creek, in NE Etowah County this January. Vic Bell, the 3340 Weather Watcher has been keeping records there six years. in the six previous Januarys, lows included 11 last January, 14 in 2004, 6 in 2003, 13 in 2002 and 11 in 2001
* 1 was the lowest in the Lower 48 this morning, Gunnison, Colo., but that may change when later reports come in
* 26 was one of the coldest in Alabama this morning at Desoto State Park
OTHER SELECTED ALABAMA LOWS
27 in Jasper, Gadsden and Fort Payne
28 in Alabaster and Pinson
31 in Anniston and Huntsville
32 in Cullman
33 in Mentone
34 in Birmingham, Selma and at Shelby County Airport
35 atop Mt. Cheaha
40 in Clay (near Deerfoot parkway) at an elevation of 1032 feet
Weather Brains Episode One
February 1, 2006, 9:02 am
The FIRST edition of the new Weather Brains podcast is online and available by RSS....
Go here to listen or get the feed:
http://www.weatherbrains.com
David Black did a great job of creating some order out of our comments. The first show is really just on the concept and the people involved; we will get into some pretty hot subjects in coming weeks...
We are using Skype for the show since all of us are rarely at the same place at the same time.
Let us know what you think!
Go here to listen or get the feed:
http://www.weatherbrains.com
David Black did a great job of creating some order out of our comments. The first show is really just on the concept and the people involved; we will get into some pretty hot subjects in coming weeks...
We are using Skype for the show since all of us are rarely at the same place at the same time.
Let us know what you think!
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Model Madness
February 1, 2006, 6:59 am
The Wednesday morning map discussion is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking at the various computer model output in recent days is enough to make your head spin. The madness continues this morning, although there is somewhat better agreement. The screaming message is that this weekend marks a major pattern change, and February looks like a very cold month for the eastern half of the U.S. This includes the southern U.S.
We are a low latitude state; very cold means different things to different people. No, we won't have highs in the teens and lows below zero through the month. But, the weather will be much, much colder than January. And a few shots of extreme cold are certainly possible down here during the next five weeks.
TODAY: Dry with a nice daytime warm-up. A decent amount of sun through high clouds.
TOMORROW: A strong vort max rolls through with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather; rainfall around one-half inch for most spots.
FRIDAY: The Thursday system will leave the atmosphere around here in a state of confusion, and the Friday night upper trough/cold front is beginning to look drier and drier. I think we can rule out any severe storms. In fact, we might not have much rain at all. We will continue to mention a chance of showers late Friday and Friday night, but amounts should be pretty light.
SATURDAY: We will have to sort through all kinds of model disarray here. The latest run of the GFS (06Z) now develops a surface low near Panama City, and spreads a band of rain into South Alabama, and some snow into North Alabama on Saturday. While you can't rule this out, I don't think that is exactly correct. The NAM on the other hand has the developing surface low over North Carolina. Hey, whats a difference of 300 miles between friends!
I expect Saturday to be windy and much colder with temperatures steady or falling... somewhere in the 35 to 45 degree range. Icy northwest winds will make those temps feel much colder. Clouds will hang tough much of the day, and I do think we need to mention a chance of some light rain or light snow.
Snow fans, don't get too excited; if any flakes do fall I don't hold much hope for any accumulation. Moisture will be limited, the ground is warm, etc. You know the problems in this kind of situation.
We should go well down in the 20s early Sunday morning as the sky becomes clear and the wind dies down. I totally reject the GFS MOS products. I will warn you they will stink much of the month of February, most likely.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: Moisture sure looks limited for the feature moving north of the state on Monday. We have some light rain in our ongoing forecast; I guess we can leave that in for now. But it doesn't look very impressive.
COLD COLD FEBRUARY: Watch the video for the graphics out to mid-month. Check out that western Canada ridge.. 500 mb heights rise to 5820 meters by the middle of next week over British Columbia. Amazing. The eastern half of the U.S. will be in the deep freeze. I have great concern over this... utility bills will be sky high and quite a shock to some. And yep, with a southern stream undercutting the cold air I expect at least one or two decent winter storm THREATS during the month here. Strap in and hang on.
WEATHER BRAINS: Hey... we recorded our first long form podcast last night. The show is called Weather Brains. Not because we are smart, but we plan on having smart people as guests on the show. Weather Brains runs 30 minutes or so, and is hosted by David Black of The Weather Company. All of the knuckleheads who post here on the blog are on the first show... I will have details posted shortly on how you can listen and get the RSS feed...
STORM ALERT 2006: Yep, opening night is tomorrow night in Hamilton... scroll down for more info.
I will have the afternoon map discussion video on the server by 3:30 today... as the model madness continues!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking at the various computer model output in recent days is enough to make your head spin. The madness continues this morning, although there is somewhat better agreement. The screaming message is that this weekend marks a major pattern change, and February looks like a very cold month for the eastern half of the U.S. This includes the southern U.S.
We are a low latitude state; very cold means different things to different people. No, we won't have highs in the teens and lows below zero through the month. But, the weather will be much, much colder than January. And a few shots of extreme cold are certainly possible down here during the next five weeks.
TODAY: Dry with a nice daytime warm-up. A decent amount of sun through high clouds.
TOMORROW: A strong vort max rolls through with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather; rainfall around one-half inch for most spots.
FRIDAY: The Thursday system will leave the atmosphere around here in a state of confusion, and the Friday night upper trough/cold front is beginning to look drier and drier. I think we can rule out any severe storms. In fact, we might not have much rain at all. We will continue to mention a chance of showers late Friday and Friday night, but amounts should be pretty light.
SATURDAY: We will have to sort through all kinds of model disarray here. The latest run of the GFS (06Z) now develops a surface low near Panama City, and spreads a band of rain into South Alabama, and some snow into North Alabama on Saturday. While you can't rule this out, I don't think that is exactly correct. The NAM on the other hand has the developing surface low over North Carolina. Hey, whats a difference of 300 miles between friends!
I expect Saturday to be windy and much colder with temperatures steady or falling... somewhere in the 35 to 45 degree range. Icy northwest winds will make those temps feel much colder. Clouds will hang tough much of the day, and I do think we need to mention a chance of some light rain or light snow.
Snow fans, don't get too excited; if any flakes do fall I don't hold much hope for any accumulation. Moisture will be limited, the ground is warm, etc. You know the problems in this kind of situation.
We should go well down in the 20s early Sunday morning as the sky becomes clear and the wind dies down. I totally reject the GFS MOS products. I will warn you they will stink much of the month of February, most likely.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: Moisture sure looks limited for the feature moving north of the state on Monday. We have some light rain in our ongoing forecast; I guess we can leave that in for now. But it doesn't look very impressive.
COLD COLD FEBRUARY: Watch the video for the graphics out to mid-month. Check out that western Canada ridge.. 500 mb heights rise to 5820 meters by the middle of next week over British Columbia. Amazing. The eastern half of the U.S. will be in the deep freeze. I have great concern over this... utility bills will be sky high and quite a shock to some. And yep, with a southern stream undercutting the cold air I expect at least one or two decent winter storm THREATS during the month here. Strap in and hang on.
WEATHER BRAINS: Hey... we recorded our first long form podcast last night. The show is called Weather Brains. Not because we are smart, but we plan on having smart people as guests on the show. Weather Brains runs 30 minutes or so, and is hosted by David Black of The Weather Company. All of the knuckleheads who post here on the blog are on the first show... I will have details posted shortly on how you can listen and get the RSS feed...
STORM ALERT 2006: Yep, opening night is tomorrow night in Hamilton... scroll down for more info.
I will have the afternoon map discussion video on the server by 3:30 today... as the model madness continues!
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