This year’s Storm Alert 2005 tour will end tonight with our annual Birmingham metro show. This year we will be at Mountaintop Church in Vestavia, which is not far off U.S. 31. The church building is large and comfortable, and great for multi-media shows like ours. The show begins art 7:00 but we encourage you to get down there early to get a good seat and a free t-shirt. You can meet our entire weather team, including the “new guy” Jason Simpson. In fact, one of our video features this year is on Jason and his childhood up in Holly Pond in Cullman county.

Our Storm Alert tour is designed to get Alabamians prepared for the spring tornado season, which is getting underway now. We can be thankful that cold and stable air means no thunderstorms for the next 10 days or so, but we all know the storms of spring will come sooner or later. The prime tornado season runs through March, April, and May, with another big season in late fall in November and December. Some of the most violent tornadoes in the world have touched down here, and we must be prepared.

Our last major spring tornado was the horrible F5 twister that killed 32 people in Jefferson county in the Birmingham area on April 8, 1998. Since then, most of our significant tornadoes have come during the fall season.

During tonight’s Storm Alert show, you will see some great Alabama storm stories, including Hurricane Ivan, the east Alabama ice storm, and the severe weather and flooding just before Thanksgiving last November. And, at the end of the show, we will give some lucky people a chance to test their weather knowledge and win some cool prizes. Once again, this is your last chance to see the show, so we hope to see you tonight at Mountaintop Church in Vestavia at 7:00!

The Tuesday afternoon video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wonder where that guy is who called me a nit-wit last week for forecasting a big late season cold snap? I might be a nit-wit, but it is going to be very cold tonight after a blustery day complete with snow flurries. He is probably complaining about something else; there are plenty of negative people in this world. Chronic negativity is a cancer that can really spread... I always like to be around positive people.

Tricky, tricky, tricky forecast. Highlights:

*FREEZE TONIGHT: That is the easy part. Most places go into the 22 to 27 degree range; colder valleys closer to 20. Maybe even some upper teens.

*THURSDAY STORM: The new system in the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain into south Alabama on Thursday, and the 12Z GFS continues to hint at the possibility of a few snowflakes here early Thursday morning. Critical thickness value are over Birmingham at 6:00 a.m. Thursday, but surface temperatures should be above freezing and I don't think we will have any serious issues. The only potential problem would be evaporative cooling with low wet bulb temperatures, and we will have to watch for that. Otherwise, just some light rain at times Thursday morning. The WRF and NAM suggest no snow here.

*SATURDAY COLD FRONT: A strong clipper system will push a cold front in here Saturday night. There could be enough moisture with this system for some light rain Saturday afternoon or Saturday night, with some snow north of us over Tennessee and Kentucky. Not much moisture, and not much rain is expected here.

*ANOTHER STORM NEXT TUESDAY MARCH 8: The GFS shows a deep surface low over Montgomery next Tuesday, while the European shows nothing. The potential involves another storm forming out in the southwest, south of Phoenix, this weekend. Those are almost always a low confidence forecast issue... the GFS tries to push another shot of cold in here late next week following the passage of the system.

Don't forget the Storm Alert 2005 show tomorrow night at Mountaintop Community Church at 7:00. Also, I hope to see many of you at the Southeast Severe Storm Symposium this weekend at Mississippi State University. I will be speaking in the broadcast workshop on Friday, and our own Bill Murray speaks on Saturday. It will be a great weekend!

You may or may not be interested in all of these snow reports, but we have found that people log on and read this material from all parts of the nation. So, let's do a roundup of Tuesday morning snow depths on a state-by-state basis.

ALABAMA
At 10 this morning, snow flurries were reported in extreme NE Jefferson County at Clay and at Springville in St. Clair County. At Meridianville, north of Huntsville...visibility at 10 was 4 miles in a nice snow shower....the AP reports a light dusting in parts of Franklin County and 1/4 inch accumulation at Bridgeport in extreme NE Alabama's jackson County...in the Tennessee Valley, temperatures were barely above freezing with winds gusting as high as 30 MPH...Fort Payne Airport had gusts to near 30 which means up on Lookout Mountain at places like Mentone and Desoto State Park...it is really windy...Jason Simpson's dad reported from Holly Pond that there was a dusting on grassy areas. Holly Pond is located in East Cullman County on US-278. Undoubtedly, there is no other town in the USA that size that has produced so many meteorologists...also in Cullman County, Mike Wilhelm, the 33/40 weather watcher who lives on a ridge top in Vinemont, reported a dusting on cars this morning. There was another nice snow shower at 7:30 a.m. Mike said it made a great birthday present for his 9-year-old son--and for Mike himself. Flurries were also reported at Cullman Airport at 1:00 a.m., at Black Creek in NE Etowah County and a few as far south as Trussville.

TENNESSEE / WEST VIRGINIA
At the highest town in Tennessee (Mountain City, elevation 2,499 feet), it was 20 degrees and snowing this morning with a wind chill of 8. Johnson County schools are closed today as a heavy snow warning is in effect until 4:00 p.m. As much as 3-6 inches may fall in upslope areas. This is in the NE corner of Tennessee...further up the Appalachian Mountains, Snowshoe, West Virignia got 10 inches of new snow bringing their total for this winter to 97 inches! The average base on the ski slopes is 50-72 inches.

EAST TENNESSEE / WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
14 inches atop Mt. Mitchell with a temperature of 7
9 inches at Jefferson and Beech Mountain
8 inches at Boone
5 inches at Spruce Pine
10 inches atop Mt. LeConte (inside Smoky Mountain National Park)
There are probably several inches on the ground at Newfound Gap, however, their report was missing.

NEW YORK
8 inches at Lockport (Niagara County)
8 inches in New York City at the Central Park Zoo
7 inches at New York's La Guardia Airport
5 inches at JFK Airport
6 inches at Upton (That's where the New York City NWS office is located.)
11 inches at Canastota (Madison County)

NEW JERSEY
8 inches at Lodi
9 inches at Newark
7 inches at Jersey City
9 inches at West Milford

CONNECTICUT
8 inches at New Fairfield
7 inches at Danbury
6 inches at Winsor Lock
As much as 9 inches fell in Newport and Washington Counties.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Generally 4-6 inches across the state.

MASSACHUSETTS
11 inches at Barnstable, Randolph, Taunton and Beverly
12 inches at East Raynham
10 inches at Norton, Sumerset and Brockton
9 inches at Gloucester
8 inches at Foxborough
13 inches at Plymouth
2 inches out on Nantucket
8.5 inches at Boston (Back Bay)
8.5 inches also at Boston's Logan Airport
6 inches at Worcester Airport

The Tuesday morning web update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

March arrives with an icy wind and temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. A widespread freeze is likely tomorrow morning, with most places going into the 22 to 27 degree range. The coldest valleys might even see upper teens.

LAST NIGHT: Lots of reports of snow flurries over north Alabama in the 11:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. time frame... see the comments under J.B.'s post below this one. Most folks slept through it, however.

THURSDAY STORM: I have to wonder if we poo-pooed the Thursday storm too quickly. The 06Z run of the GFS is pretty wet, spitting out a 71 percent POP (probability of precipitation) for Birmingham at 6:00 Thursday morning. The critical thickness values are pretty low; the 1000-500 mb thickness sits at 5400 meters at Birmingham, and the freeze line at 850 mb runs from about Columbus, Mississippi to Clanton to Auburn. And, wet bulb temperatures are forecast to be below freezing, which means evaporative cooling might come into play. Still, the heaviest precipitation should be south of here, but lets watch the 12Z models runs and see what happens. If the 06Z GFS trend does continue, we might have to carry over a chance of light snow into Thursday morning.

By the way, the NAM is very dry Thursday morning, in direct contrast to the GFS.

WEEKEND: The strong clipper system could bring some snow to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky on Saturday, but that should stay north of us. I rarely get excited about clipper systems due to the lack of moisture, and the fact they usually stay north of us.

NEXT WEEK: I think you throw out the 60s and 40s advertised by the GFS next week. We should be in the cool 50s and 30s, and maybe even colder than that. The mean eastern U.S. trough is going nowhere. And, the 06Z GFS hints at one or two waves with a decent amount of moisture along the way. Temperatures should remain well below normal through next week.

MID-MONTH: As the NAO goes to neutral territory, we get into a warmer pattern over the latter half of March, and probably a stormy pattern as well, which is what we expect around here this time of the year.

STORM ALERT 2005: Don't forget out last show is tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. at Mountaintop Community Church. I know lots of folks go to church on Wednesday night around here, but keep in mind this show will take the place of the Wednesday night worship at Mountaintop, and I know pastor Bill Elder will want to share a few words after the show is over for those that want to stick around. The facility is beautiful and very comfortable. For directions, go here:

http://www.mountaintopchurch.com/directions/index.htm

Will try to post some notes this morning as the 12Z model runs arrive... I will be in town today (for once.