HIGH TEMPERATURES OF INTEREST TODAY (WEDNESDAY)
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
78 in Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Evergreen
76 in Decatur, Dothan, Mobile, Muscle Shoals
77 in Pinson
75 at Birmingham Airport and Shelby County Airport
80 in Jackson
81 in Meridian
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
98 in Wichita Falls and Mineral Wells, Tex.
95 in Abilene, Fort Worth, San Angelo, Laredo and Denton, Tex., and Lawton, Okla.
92 in Stillwater and Oklahoma City
93 at DFW (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport) Tulsa and Muskogee, Okla. (Remember the song, "An Okie From Muskogee?"
ALASKA
32 below zero at Barrow
The low in Alaska today was 51 below at Chandalar Lake
Soaking Up The Warmth
March 1, 2006, 10:06 pmMid-Month Looking Very Interesting
March 1, 2006, 4:02 pm
The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Some pretty fascinating possibilities are ahead for mid-month... but first short term weather...
TODAY: Nobody complaining about this weather. As advertised, temperatures are in the 70s this afternoon. Montgomery leading the way as I write this with 76 degrees. Not bad for the first day of March. The radar is quiet as a mouse.
TOMORROW: Another nice day; low 70s look likely. A front will slip in here tomorrow evening, but rain showers on the front should be widely spaced, and many places will remain dry.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Cool and dry. Temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degees, with highs close to 60. The new guidance is coming in pretty cold for Saturday morning now with low 30s as far south as Birmingham. So, be aware a light freeze seems likely early Saturday. In fact, that is now beginning to look like the coldest morning of the next seven days.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: A clipper type system will bring only isolated showers Sunday night and Monday. And, the bulk of the cold air following that system looks like it will be shunted well to the east of Alabama, so we will be revising our forecast temperatures upward for the first few days of next week.
MARCH MADNESS: The 12Z GFS shows all kinds of wild weather for mid-month. But, remember, this is in VOODOO land and all of this could change. No forecast here, just model output. But, it sure is possible....
March 9-10: A robust severe weather threat is shown for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This system lifts northward, and the band of storms moves into Alabama with a much lesser severe weather threat.
March 12-13: A phased, cold upper trough forms over the nation's mid-section. This could set the stage for a severe weather threat here in Alabama along with some heavy rain.
March 14-15: The upper trough axis is still west of the state, and a surface low runs from the northern Gulf to near Savannah. Cold air is entrained in the northwest part of the circulation, and there sure is some hint of a mid-March snow storm for parts of the Deep South. Before you get excited, this feature will probably be gone on the next model output. But we just throw it out there as a possibility. After all, we sure have dealt with mid-March snow storms before (anyone remember March 1993??
March 16-17: A big late season cold snap following the storm, with cold air dropping deep into the Gulf of Merxico.
Very, very interesting. I sure get the idea this is going to be a wild month in the weather office.
WEATHER BRAINS: What a great show by David Black, J.B. Elliott, and Bill Murray. I vote the "TV guys" stay off the show and let these three handle it from now on. This fifth episode of Weather Brains, our weekly 30 minute podcast, is available (free, of course) via iTunes, RSS, or here:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
The guys discuss TV severe weather coverage, the upcoming spring tornado season, and much more. Once again, a great show.
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Some pretty fascinating possibilities are ahead for mid-month... but first short term weather...
TODAY: Nobody complaining about this weather. As advertised, temperatures are in the 70s this afternoon. Montgomery leading the way as I write this with 76 degrees. Not bad for the first day of March. The radar is quiet as a mouse.
TOMORROW: Another nice day; low 70s look likely. A front will slip in here tomorrow evening, but rain showers on the front should be widely spaced, and many places will remain dry.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Cool and dry. Temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degees, with highs close to 60. The new guidance is coming in pretty cold for Saturday morning now with low 30s as far south as Birmingham. So, be aware a light freeze seems likely early Saturday. In fact, that is now beginning to look like the coldest morning of the next seven days.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: A clipper type system will bring only isolated showers Sunday night and Monday. And, the bulk of the cold air following that system looks like it will be shunted well to the east of Alabama, so we will be revising our forecast temperatures upward for the first few days of next week.
MARCH MADNESS: The 12Z GFS shows all kinds of wild weather for mid-month. But, remember, this is in VOODOO land and all of this could change. No forecast here, just model output. But, it sure is possible....
March 9-10: A robust severe weather threat is shown for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This system lifts northward, and the band of storms moves into Alabama with a much lesser severe weather threat.
March 12-13: A phased, cold upper trough forms over the nation's mid-section. This could set the stage for a severe weather threat here in Alabama along with some heavy rain.
March 14-15: The upper trough axis is still west of the state, and a surface low runs from the northern Gulf to near Savannah. Cold air is entrained in the northwest part of the circulation, and there sure is some hint of a mid-March snow storm for parts of the Deep South. Before you get excited, this feature will probably be gone on the next model output. But we just throw it out there as a possibility. After all, we sure have dealt with mid-March snow storms before (anyone remember March 1993??
March 16-17: A big late season cold snap following the storm, with cold air dropping deep into the Gulf of Merxico.
Very, very interesting. I sure get the idea this is going to be a wild month in the weather office.
WEATHER BRAINS: What a great show by David Black, J.B. Elliott, and Bill Murray. I vote the "TV guys" stay off the show and let these three handle it from now on. This fifth episode of Weather Brains, our weekly 30 minute podcast, is available (free, of course) via iTunes, RSS, or here:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
The guys discuss TV severe weather coverage, the upcoming spring tornado season, and much more. Once again, a great show.
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
HOT DRY WINDS IN THE PLAINS
March 1, 2006, 2:46 pm
Unbelievable heat in the Plains this afternoon somewhat akin to mid-summer. Look at these numbers from 1:00 pm observations:
96 degrees at Wichita Falls, Texas with 30 mph wind gusts
93 at Abilene (Dyess Air Force Base)
93 at Graham, Texas
91 at Vernon, Texas with winds gusting to 35 mph
91 in Lawton, Stillwater, and Norman, Oklahoma
90 in Oklahoma with 24 mph winds
In contrast, colder air was moving down from the NW. In Cheyenne it was 44 degrees with winds gusting to 56 mph.
Ah, the month of March!
96 degrees at Wichita Falls, Texas with 30 mph wind gusts
93 at Abilene (Dyess Air Force Base)
93 at Graham, Texas
91 at Vernon, Texas with winds gusting to 35 mph
91 in Lawton, Stillwater, and Norman, Oklahoma
90 in Oklahoma with 24 mph winds
In contrast, colder air was moving down from the NW. In Cheyenne it was 44 degrees with winds gusting to 56 mph.
Ah, the month of March!
WEATHER BY THE NUMBERS--Wednesday, 3/1/06
March 1, 2006, 10:43 am
* 54.5 was the average daily high in Birmingham during February, about 4 degrees colder than normal
* 35.4 was the average low, which is exactly normal
* 14 is how many nights the temperature fell to 32 or lower
* 13 is the number of days with measurable rain in Birmingham during February, including 3.42 inches on February 6
* 8.71 inches was the total for the month--about double normal
* 2.49 inches was the Huntsville rainfall for February--only about one-half normal
* 11 is the number of rain days in Alabaster during February
* 1 is how many doughnuts I am going to eat at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University, Starkville, this weekend, because...
* 36 pounds is how much weight I will lose this year--about 3 pounds a month
* 3 years is how long it will take me to look like Jason Simpson, except for the hair. I am going to approach John Oldshue to see what he would charge me to do a hair transplant
* 92 was the high in Childress and Wink, Texas Tuesday, the nation's high
* 13 below was the low this morning in the lower 48 at Caribou and Presque Isle, Maine
* 44 below was the coldest in Alaska at Bettles where there is 28 inches of snow on the ground
* 63 below zero is the wind chill in Bettles
* 76 is our forecast high for Birmingham today, which will be 120 degrees warmer than the low in Bettles. Tell me, had you rather be in B or B (Bettles or Birmingham)?
* 79 was the high in Brewton yesterday, Alabama's warmest
* 62 below zero is the wind chill in good old Deadhorse, Alaska. I have no idea why I am so fascinated about that place
* 74 mph was the wind gust at Cape Romanzof, Alaska this morning where it was 18 degrees. How would you like to be there?
* 6.82 inches is how much rain fell at Lodgepole, California in Tulare County yesterday
* 50 inches is how much new snow fell in the higher elevations of Fresno County from this latest storm
* 18th of October was the last time it rained in Phoenix
* 133 days with not a trace of rain is how long they have been dry
* 101 is the previous record for rainless days occurring in 1999
* 4 months in a row with not a drop of rain in Phoenix and that has never happened before in recorded history
* 0 is the number of ski areas in New Mexico operating on natural snow at this time. That, of course, is due to their severe drought which also means the snow drought
* 916 is the number of places left on Bill Murray's list of 1,000 places that he must visit
* 1/2 century is how old one of the guys in our weather crew will be later this year (he shall remain nameless)
* 2 is the number of messages I have received in the last few days complaining about Weather By The Numbers. Both wanted me to mention ONLY Alabama material. I respect their opinions but I disagree. We have people from all 50 states that read our blog + numerous countries from around the world. In a recent week, for example, we had 212 logons from Wisconsin, 4,485 from Georgia, 194 from Pennsylvania, 185 from Michigan, 56 from Utah, 516 from California, 803 from Illinois, 5 from France and Brazil, 91 from Canada, 13 from China (just to name a few)
* 35.4 was the average low, which is exactly normal
* 14 is how many nights the temperature fell to 32 or lower
* 13 is the number of days with measurable rain in Birmingham during February, including 3.42 inches on February 6
* 8.71 inches was the total for the month--about double normal
* 2.49 inches was the Huntsville rainfall for February--only about one-half normal
* 11 is the number of rain days in Alabaster during February
* 1 is how many doughnuts I am going to eat at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University, Starkville, this weekend, because...
* 36 pounds is how much weight I will lose this year--about 3 pounds a month
* 3 years is how long it will take me to look like Jason Simpson, except for the hair. I am going to approach John Oldshue to see what he would charge me to do a hair transplant
* 92 was the high in Childress and Wink, Texas Tuesday, the nation's high
* 13 below was the low this morning in the lower 48 at Caribou and Presque Isle, Maine
* 44 below was the coldest in Alaska at Bettles where there is 28 inches of snow on the ground
* 63 below zero is the wind chill in Bettles
* 76 is our forecast high for Birmingham today, which will be 120 degrees warmer than the low in Bettles. Tell me, had you rather be in B or B (Bettles or Birmingham)?
* 79 was the high in Brewton yesterday, Alabama's warmest
* 62 below zero is the wind chill in good old Deadhorse, Alaska. I have no idea why I am so fascinated about that place
* 74 mph was the wind gust at Cape Romanzof, Alaska this morning where it was 18 degrees. How would you like to be there?
* 6.82 inches is how much rain fell at Lodgepole, California in Tulare County yesterday
* 50 inches is how much new snow fell in the higher elevations of Fresno County from this latest storm
* 18th of October was the last time it rained in Phoenix
* 133 days with not a trace of rain is how long they have been dry
* 101 is the previous record for rainless days occurring in 1999
* 4 months in a row with not a drop of rain in Phoenix and that has never happened before in recorded history
* 0 is the number of ski areas in New Mexico operating on natural snow at this time. That, of course, is due to their severe drought which also means the snow drought
* 916 is the number of places left on Bill Murray's list of 1,000 places that he must visit
* 1/2 century is how old one of the guys in our weather crew will be later this year (he shall remain nameless)
* 2 is the number of messages I have received in the last few days complaining about Weather By The Numbers. Both wanted me to mention ONLY Alabama material. I respect their opinions but I disagree. We have people from all 50 states that read our blog + numerous countries from around the world. In a recent week, for example, we had 212 logons from Wisconsin, 4,485 from Georgia, 194 from Pennsylvania, 185 from Michigan, 56 from Utah, 516 from California, 803 from Illinois, 5 from France and Brazil, 91 from Canada, 13 from China (just to name a few)
The Warmth Of The Sun
March 1, 2006, 6:57 am
The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Anyone remember this Beach Boys song?
"I’ll dreams of her arms
And though they’re not real
Just like she’s still there
The way that I feel
I loved like the warmth of the sun
(warmth of the sun)
It won’t ever die
(it won’t ever die)"
Not one of their biggest hits... but I think we will all anjoy the warmth of the sun today. The GFS has a high of 73 today, the NAM 74, and the great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott is forecasting 76. You go, J.B. That 76 sure sounds good to me. No rain today with a partly sunny sky and a nice southwest breeze.
COLD FRONT AHEAD: A cold front slips in here tomorrow evening. The chance of significant rain with that front sure looks small; many Alabama communities won't see a drop. But, it will bring temperatures down a good 10 degrees on Friday and Saturday. In fact, the models are a little more robust on the cooling; looks like highs on Friday/Saturday will be somewhere in the 58 to 62 degree range, and a chance we go down in the mid 30s Saturday morning.
WEEKEND PEEK: The weekend should be mostly dry. Another front moves in here Sunday evening, but like the one come in here late tomorrow rain should be light and spotty. Another shot of colder air moves in here early next week; the 00Z GFS backs off on the degree of cooling, but I think for now we need to leave our forecast along with 20s possible by early Tuesday morning. We will take a look at the 12Z runs and adjust as possible.
ACTIVE PATTERN: Mid-March looks active. One wave bring a chance of rain and storms to the state around March 10. Maybe some strong to severe storms with that feature. But, the second wave coming at us around March 12 looks stronger and could bring the first significant severe weather threat to the Deep South this season. You have to wonder if our 8 year string of quiet spring tornado seasons will come to an end this year.
The GFS has backed off on the idea of a flood of very cold air over the eastern U.S. March 15-16, but that will probably flip and flop again. Way out there in voodoo land.
THANKS: Another packed house last night for the Storm Alert tour in Northport. Thanks to Mayor Harvey Fretwell and the City of Northport for being great hosts, and to YOU for coming. We have met thousands of Alabamians this year on the tour. If you missed the show, we will be doing a prime time special on Sunday March 26 (at 6:00 p.m.) that will feature all of the video elements we used this year.
WEATHER BRAINS: This week's episode of Weather Brains is on the server and available by RSS:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
David Black, J.B. Elliott, and Bill Murray have the show this week since we were at the Storm Alert show last night when it was taped. It is probably the best episode ever! I will be listening this morning on my iPod.
I will have the next map discussion video and discussion ready by 3:30 today... enjoy the first day of March!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Anyone remember this Beach Boys song?
"I’ll dreams of her arms
And though they’re not real
Just like she’s still there
The way that I feel
I loved like the warmth of the sun
(warmth of the sun)
It won’t ever die
(it won’t ever die)"
Not one of their biggest hits... but I think we will all anjoy the warmth of the sun today. The GFS has a high of 73 today, the NAM 74, and the great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott is forecasting 76. You go, J.B. That 76 sure sounds good to me. No rain today with a partly sunny sky and a nice southwest breeze.
COLD FRONT AHEAD: A cold front slips in here tomorrow evening. The chance of significant rain with that front sure looks small; many Alabama communities won't see a drop. But, it will bring temperatures down a good 10 degrees on Friday and Saturday. In fact, the models are a little more robust on the cooling; looks like highs on Friday/Saturday will be somewhere in the 58 to 62 degree range, and a chance we go down in the mid 30s Saturday morning.
WEEKEND PEEK: The weekend should be mostly dry. Another front moves in here Sunday evening, but like the one come in here late tomorrow rain should be light and spotty. Another shot of colder air moves in here early next week; the 00Z GFS backs off on the degree of cooling, but I think for now we need to leave our forecast along with 20s possible by early Tuesday morning. We will take a look at the 12Z runs and adjust as possible.
ACTIVE PATTERN: Mid-March looks active. One wave bring a chance of rain and storms to the state around March 10. Maybe some strong to severe storms with that feature. But, the second wave coming at us around March 12 looks stronger and could bring the first significant severe weather threat to the Deep South this season. You have to wonder if our 8 year string of quiet spring tornado seasons will come to an end this year.
The GFS has backed off on the idea of a flood of very cold air over the eastern U.S. March 15-16, but that will probably flip and flop again. Way out there in voodoo land.
THANKS: Another packed house last night for the Storm Alert tour in Northport. Thanks to Mayor Harvey Fretwell and the City of Northport for being great hosts, and to YOU for coming. We have met thousands of Alabamians this year on the tour. If you missed the show, we will be doing a prime time special on Sunday March 26 (at 6:00 p.m.) that will feature all of the video elements we used this year.
WEATHER BRAINS: This week's episode of Weather Brains is on the server and available by RSS:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
David Black, J.B. Elliott, and Bill Murray have the show this week since we were at the Storm Alert show last night when it was taped. It is probably the best episode ever! I will be listening this morning on my iPod.
I will have the next map discussion video and discussion ready by 3:30 today... enjoy the first day of March!
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