My blog post yesterday about unjest weather triggered quite a bit of response. I am glad it did. Some people feel that politics and weather do not mix. In certain cases, I agree wholeheartedly.. I am afraid many people on both sides of the global warming debate are solely politically motivated. When Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania tried to pass legislation limiting the mission of the National Weather Service, I felt like that was a very bad thing. Unfortunately, weather and politics are inexorably intertwined because funding for the National Weather Service and emergency management comes from politicians. In fact, when I met Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center, he told me that he was more a politician than a meteorologist. While that is sad, it is reality.

Without question, response to any disaster, be it 9-11 or Hurricane Katrina or the Pacific tsunami requires leadership. I found that to be sorely lacking during Katrina at all levels. The scope of the disaster was so overwhelming that response was difficult, true enough. But I still can find very little evidence of a plan being in place, despite the fact that this was openly regarded to be the single most devastating weather catastrophe waiting in the wings for the U.S. While it was widely discussed, it seems nothing was done to get ready for the eventual calamity. ?

I don’t know about Ray Nagin’s eventual opponent, but it seemed there were several good candidates in the primaries. People with plans for New Orleans. I hope that the newly re-elected Mayor Nagin learns from his mistakes. Someone said that dependency on government was a huge part of the problem. Without doubt. But I think that it is incumbent on us as the world’s greatest civilized nation to be able to provide basicsupport in the face of a pending disaster. In Florida in the hurricanes of 2004, public transportation was available during the evacuation phase in major metro areas like Miami. Pumping stations in Orleans Parish were abandoned at the order of the Parish President on Sunday night before Katrina. They might not have done anything in the face of the onslaught of Katrina, but still, it is rather unthinkable that they were not even operating. Shouldn’t they have been made storm proof?

I agree that the failure of the levees and floodwalls was at the root of the disaster. Remember, Katrina was only a strong category three hurricane at landfall. It was not the big one. How could the Dutch have built the incredible Deltaworks system to keep out the floods of the North sea. It took a deadly disaster in the 1950s to spur action. I hope and pray that similar consideration is being paid now to the flood protection systems in the Crescent City.

Showers and thunderstorms continue over Northeast and West Central Alabama this evening...

Storms cover parts of Jackson and DeKalb Counties...but they are not severe and do not appear to be getting stronger.

Over West Central Alabama, activity over Pickens County seems to have peaked in intensity. A nice little storm is just southwest of Eutaw.

Activity over Northwest Alabama has diminished.

But over in Mississippi...strong storms are over North Central Mississippi in the Tupelo aera. Other strong storms are in the Oxford area. Severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect earlier for Lee and Pontotoc Counties (Tupelo/Pontotoc areas.)

Other strong storms are over southern Tennessee.

All of this activity should gradually diminish in activity as we go through the nighttime hours. But storms are possible overnight, given the proximity of the surface trough and cold front to our west.

Showers and storms will be widespread and heavy on Friday in advance of the front, especially during the afternoon hours.

Showers and storms continue in two main concentrations tonight.

One is over Northwest Alabama into the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall seems to be getting heavier over Franklin County. Earlier, a Flash Flood Warning was in effect for that county. Radar estimates indicate that as much as six inches of rain may have fallen over a small area of northeastern Fayette County with a larger area of 1.5 to 5 inch rain over the eastern half of the county. More rain is falling in that area now. I would not be surprised to see another Flash Flood Warning.

Scattered showers are over West Central Alabama from Fayette back to southwest of Carrollton. This activity seems to have expanded slightly in areal coverage in the past hour. The storm passing just west of Aliceville probably has some good lightning, gusty winds and maybe some small hail. These cells seem to be slowly moving to the east or northeast.

A couple of storms are pulsing their way across western Etowah and DeKalb counties. The cell west of Fort Payne might trigger a Severe Thunderstorm Warning from Huntsville if it keeps getting stronger. It is about to cross I-59, heading southeastward.

More showers and storms are possible through the overnight hours thanks to a surface trough over Alabama. Showers and storms will be wideapread and some will be heavy on Friday across the area as a cold front approaches the area.

A surface trough of low pressure is clearly evident in observations across North and Central Alabama this afternoon.

Showers and storms continue in a couple of distinct southwest to northeast lines.

The first extendes from Marion County across Franklin and Lawrence Counties.

The second extends from Pickens and Tuscaloosa Counties northeastward across Fayette, Walker, Winston and Cullman Counties.

Both lines are weakening slowly, except for the southern end of the second line, where thunderstorms seem to be percolating over West Central Alabama.

A severe thunderstorm warning was in effect until 7 p.m. CDT for Franklin County, but there are now no warnings in effect now.

More showers and storms may form overnight in the vicinity of the low pressure trough over North and Central Alabama. Then, showers and storms will be likely tomorrow across the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some of the storms could be strong to severe again tomorrow.

It is for North Central Marion County in NW Alabama.

The severe thunderstorm was near Hackleburg or some 10 miles NE of Hamilton. It was moving NE at 10 mph and should remain mostly over rural areas.

May have nickle size hail and gusts to 60.

Strong thunderstorms continue over several parts of North Alabama. There have been several Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. One Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues until 5:45 for Cullman County in North-Central Alabama. The storm was located west of Good Hope and moving NE slowly. Good Hope was generally in the path of the storm.

Good Hope is just south of the city of Cullman and just west of I-65.

Parts of the Birmingham area got a decent amount of rain this afternoon, but most areas stayed dry.

We will try to post a list of rainfall amounts as they become available after 7:00 p.m.

Here is a list of some of the stronger thunderstorms at 5:25 pm:

* NW of Jasper in Walker County
* Near Hamilton
* Just SW of Cullman
* Near and south of Huntsville
* East Franklin County down across NW Marion County
* Along the Dekalb-Jackson County in the NE corner of the state

These storms are moving very slowly, in fact they act like they are wandering around at times. This gives them time to dump lots of rain.

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms have developed once again in the heat of the afternoon across the Tennessee Valley. These storms have prompted some Severe Thunderstorm Warnigs as well as some Flash Flood Warnings. If you can look at an animation of the radar, you'll see why the flash flooding is occurring - these storms are simply not moving much. Any movement you see is probably from propagation and re-development of storms and not from actual movement of individual storms,

The computer guidance from the GFS continues to show a cold front moving through Alabama on Friday and early Saturday. The front does not seem to be making much headway today, so we'll just have to see how well the model position holds up tomorrow. I think there is certainly the potential for nearly everyone to see some rain. Amounts, however, may only range from a third to a half an inch unless you are under one of the stronger thunderstorms.

And please take these storms seriously. There are NO lightning warnigns. Don't risk you life when thunderstorms do develop. If you hear thunder, lightning is present so stay inside and be safe. Lightning is often referred to as the underrated killer because we don't take it seriously.

The front is expected to be esiting the state by mid-day on Saturday with cooler and drier air filtering into Central Alabama on a north to northwesterly flow pattern that will remain with us well into the next week. This means that temperatures should moderate and with lower humidity, we should see some nice days on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

No early morning events in my life tomorrow, so I'll try to have the Friday morning web map discussion on the server no later than 8 am.

Stay cool - and safe - out there!

-Brian-

It is pouring over parts of Northwest Alabama.

It is due to very slow-moving thunderstorms, almost stationary at times.

Flash Flood Warning for East Franklin County until 5:30. Main danger of flooding is inthe Newburg area of Northeast Franklin County and north of highway 24. Doppler radar estimates of 3 to 6 inches of rain.

Flash Flood Warning also continues for Limestone County until 4:15.

A strong thunderstorm has developed over North Lamar County in West Alabama.

A small but strong thunderstorm was moving west across South Jefferson County.

This is not all the storms...just the main ones.

Several strong storms have developed over North Alabama, mainly near the Tennessee River.

The NWS, Huntsville, issued a Flash Flood Warning for Limestone County until 4:15. They also issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the same county until 3:00 p.m. The storm could produce wind gusts over 70 mph.

It was located near Athens and practically stationary.

Other showers and thunderstorms have developed in East Alabama from Sylacauga NE to Centre and a few others spotted over Jefferson, Walker and Fayette Counties.

The hot weather continues across Central Alabama. A quick peek at the latest visible satellite images shows a nice CU field (field of cumulus clouds) across much of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Southeast Alabama while the northwest and central portions of the state are almost cloud free.

A few small showers were detected on radar across the western portion of the Tennessee Valley. Another patch of showers was visible just east of Gadsden. There was little movement on any of the showers so far.

Temperature-wise it is hot out there. Temperatures at 1 pm were in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Discounted the observaton at Tuscaloosa where the temperature was reported to be 97 degrees with a wind at 113 miles an hour. Something just tells me that the equipment there needs some attention - just a hunch, you know.

Looking at the bigger picture, a weak and somewhat diffuse stationary front was located from Western Pennsylvania into a low pressure system over Central Missouri. From there, a cold front extended west-southwest into Texas and the Big Bend Country. The latest computer model guidance still brings the front through Alabama on Friday and early Saturday. It should usher in some drier and cooler air - perhaps 8 to 10 degrees cooler - with dewpoints falling back to around 60 degrees. I know I'm ready for a break in the hot weather.

More on the web video map discussion later this afternoon.

-Brian-