On August 2, 1978, I was about to be a junior at Huffman High School. I woke up early that morning to go to get my driver’s license. I know that because my license expires today.. Of course, my first activity each day was to listen to NOAA Weather Radio. Remember, these were the days before The Weather Channel and the Internet. It was a bonus when J.B. was on duty. And he was on this morning. J.B. was reading some dramatic flash flood warning bulletins from the National Weather Service in San Antonio. I sat mesmerized as J.B. transported his listeners to the stricken Hill Country Region of South Texas. I remember his first hand account of water so high that it was over a bridge over the Guadalupe River, I believe. It was probably a place that he had visited personally on one of his trips to the West. He brought the emergency to life.

Tropical Storm Amelia never had winds above 50 mph. It crossed into South Texas on July 30th after only a few hours as a named storm. It moved to a position northwest of San Antonio. Heavy rains started falling on the evening of August 1st, enhanced by the diurnal cycle that decaying tropical cyclones often make after landfall. Heating from the sun warms the atmosphere during the daytime, and shower activity diminishes. As nighttime cooling occurs, the atmosphere destabilizes, and showers and storms increase. By the morning of August 2nd, disastrous flooding was occurring on the Guadalupe River. The official NWS cooperative observer at Medina measured 32 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending at 7 a.m. on August 2nd. Rainfall rates exceeded 4 inches per hour at times. Mr. Roland Manatt, near Medina, started measuring the rain in a tin can. He had to move to a fruit jar as the excessive rains continued. Emptying it each time it became full, Manatt measured forty eight inches of rain in a fifty two hour period. He stayed awake for two straight days, dumping his makeshift rain gauge as the rains continued.

Disastrous flooding occurred on several rivers in Central Texas, but the worst was along the Guadalupe River. The Guadalupe River crested at 46.62 feet at Bandera. This was an amazing nineteen feet above the Highway 173 bridge in Bandera. Twenty seven people drowned in the Hill County as a result of the flooding.

Not many showers or storms around Alabama early this evening.

One over north Shelby County south of Birmingham was diminishing in strength. It was near Chelsea and Oak Mountain State Park and moving NW toward Vestavia and Hoover. Considerable lightning with it earlier, but that has decreased.

Another smaller one in Bibb County between Centreville and West Blocton.

And one over North Dallas County. In Extreme NE Alabama, one was in progress over Jackson County.

To our east, a big thunderstorms with unlimited lightning was west and NW of Atlanta.

All the storms in Alabama would not cover even one percent of the land area.

Thanks to Emily Spanfellner, who took these pictures of a summer storm in Fayette County July 31 from around 5:30 to 6:30pm!

With a hurricane reconnaissance aircraft in Chris, the National Hurricane Center posted an updated advisory at 4:05 pm CDT.

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Chris seems to have begun a history of not cooperating with forecasters since this intensity was not expected. Let's hope the forecasts will have a good handle on the motion of the storm.

-Brian-

At 4:05 PM, the National Hurricane Center issued a special update on Tropical Storm Chris indicating that Air Force Recon had found a much strong storm than had been estimated using satellite techniques:

WTNT63 KNHC 012106
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

We'll be watching Chris intently this week and even over the weekend. If he continues on a west-northwest track, he'll likely end up in the Gulf where water temperatures are between 83 and 89 degrees F on average. A hurricane only needs 78 F water to sustain itself.

CLOSER TO HOME...

A few isolated heavy downpours are showing up on radar around Alabama at 4:25 PM. Most of them were in eastern Alabama over DeKalb County, but one heavy downpour was on US 278 between Piedmont and Hokes Bluff in Calhoun/Etowah Counties.

Other showers were less intense over Coosa County. Those showers are along an outflow boundary that could produce a few more t-storms in Chilton or Talladega Counties shortly.

If you aren't seeing rain, which most of us are NOT, then it's hot out there! Four o'clock temperatures ranged from 88 at Alexander City to 95 in Gadsden, where the high so far has been 97, and the heat index is between 103 and 107!

Still have been unable to clear up the issues I have with creating a QuickTime movie, so there will not be a video map discussion this afternoon. Bear with me as the software should be here tomorrow and once I get it loaded and become able enough to create a video, I will.

Typing this afternoon from the Press Box overlooking the Hoove Met, home of the Birmingham Barons. The Barons are playing the Biscuits tonight, that's the team from Montgomery. Weather will be good for a game but the heat will be here so shed the suit for shorts and a t-shirt and come out for the game.

Funny how I can't do a video but there really isn't much to show you. Tropically, Chris is churning away as he approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The storm seems to have gained a bit more strength today with peak wind estimated to be 40 knots based on a flight level wind of 53 knots from the first reconnaissance plane to sample Chris. The offical NHC track plods Chris west-northwest on a course that could bring it into the southern Bahamas this weekend. At that time, Chris could be a threat to southern Florida and the Florida Keys.

Back home, the coverage of showers is way down from yesterday. Radar showed a few showers over Dekalb and Cherokee counties in northwest Alabama and southwest of Demopolis. Satellite imagery showed just some puffy cumulus clouds which should fade away with sunset or slightly before. Along the coast, a few showers had developed along the seabreeze but even there the shower coverage seemed down some.

The latest GFS model run keeps Alabama and the Southeast under high pressure at the surface and aloft. The upper level high weakens a bit on Thursday with a slight troughiness over the east coast which will not tip far enough south to have a serious impact on our weather. By Sunday, the ridge builds back in with a venegance. The 594 contour line will cover much of the southeastern quarter of the Nation by the first of next week.

So the bottom line is the heat continues with isolated showers possible every afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon were in the lower 90s with some of the coolest spots in South Alabama where a few showers had dropped temperatures into the lower 80s. During the next seven days, morning lows should be in the lower and mid 70s and afternoon highs sticking close to the mid 90s. A few spots will probably push the upper 90s.

Stay cool out there. Will have a Blog post here tomorrow morning 7:30 ish with some video soon, I hope. Thanks for your patience as I work through the transition while filling in for James.

-Brian-

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is not on the server.

I've tried to bring the size of the QuickTime movie down a bit, but that takes a lot of experimentation, so please bear with me. James is using his Mac, but I don't have the same software yet. I'm hoping UPS delivers today or tomorrow. Also, please forgive me for not getting it posted correctly yesterday. I put the file in the old location but realized it later in the evening and corrected it.

JB, unfortunately I DO remember Burma Shave signs along the road. I remember as a kid keeping my eyes posted for the first one so I could read the whole saying. They were also fun to find and cute while really getting their point across. I wouldn't mid seeing them make a comeback, but we have enough roadside advertising now!

Welcome to August and good morning to Chris. Tropical Storm Chris was named this morning by the National Hurricane Center after starting life as a tropical depression late last night. Chris looks to be a real challenge to hurricane forecasters, so this is surely a "stay tuned" storm. Climatologically, storms in that area in August usually do one of two things: head toward Florida and re-curve up the east coast or take a slightly more southerly track across the Caribbean and come into the Gulf of Mexico. Chris is poised right in the middle between those two paths, so it will be interesting to watch what the future will bring for Chris. National Hurricane Center tracks currently favor a track toward Florida, but the various model tracks are clustered over Hispaniola and Cuba or south of the current official track. If this southern track does prevail, Chris will have a tough life with atmospheric conditions that are not the best plus the obstacles of the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba to deal with. Stay tuned on this one.

Meanwhile, across Alabama we have little weather to talk about. The upper level high is forecast to stay with us all week and into next week with subtle changes in strength and some wavering to the center position. Bottom line is it looks like the heat will stay with us with the ever present posibility of showers. Shower coverage is expected to remain isolated each day. Morning lows should be in the lower 70s while the afternoon highs will be in the middle 90s perhaps flirting with upper 90s. You'll be lucky if you find yourself under one of those showers getting some rain and brief heat relief.

I have a meeting downtown this afternoon, so the availability of an afternoon map discussion video is in question. I'll do my best to get the meeting over and get the video posted by 4:30 pm or so. After today, the schedule gets a little looser so I should be able to meet the usual schedule.

Stay cool and be cautious about the heat. Heat effects can sneak up on you so if you are out in the heat for very long, take frequent breaks and drink lots of water to keep hydrated.

-Brian-

Weather Brains episode 27 is now on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.weatherbrains.com

In this week's podcast:

-Scattered weekend storms give parts of central Alabama a thrashing;

-We discuss the Atlantic's newest tropical depression;

- We get an update about area water usage from Charles Lay with the Shelby Co. Water Authority;

-We get a weather lesson about outflow boundaries;

-Revealing news about where Brian Peters spent his honeymoon!

Join J.B. Elliott, Jason Simpson, Brian Peters, Bill Murray and David Black...

Weather Brains is a weekly 30 minute podcast for people who love weather. You can listen to the podcast anywhere on an iPod or any other MP3 player, or on your computer.

To subscribe, go to the iTunes Music Store, and choose "Podcasts". In the search box, enter "Weather Brains". On the next page, on the "Weather Brains" line click on subscribe.

If you use another podcast receiving program, enter this feed address:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/weatherbrains

Covering several items early on this Tuesday morning...

TROPICAL
We have the third named storm of the season. The track forecast brings the center toward the NW passing north of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba and brings it into the Bahamas...then possibly a threat to South Florida. Way too early to be specific.NHC keeps it below hurricane strength into the weekend. All the information you could possibly want is here:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

The next names on the tropical list: Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gorden, Helene.

HEAT
Relentless...but some areas getting a break. Cooler over the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Northern Rockies. Even the far West getting a good break. Hottest inthe USA yesterday was ONLY 112 in Death Valley. They have been having 120 + heat for days on end, even as high as 126. Washington, D.C., is expecting 100 today and 102 tomorrow. New York City 103 tomorrow and Boston 100. No real break this week for Alabama.

CRUNCHING NUMBERS FOR ANNISTON
Just to pick a location to show how hot it was in July. At Anniston Airport, the stubborn ole relentless thermometer soared to 95 or higher on 14 days, including 10 days in a row. The temperature failed to reach 90 on only 8 days. It is difficult to tell the difference between 90 and 91 degrees but you definately tell the difference between 90 and 95 or hotter. Anniston had 100 on July 19. They received only 1/3 inch of rain for the first three weeks but ended the month with 2.56 inches, less than half the normal amount.

RAINFALL RAT RACE
As of this morning, here is the latest box-score on 2006 rainfall around the state:
5.40 inches above normal in Birmingham (stands out like a sore thumb)
12.70 inches below normal in Huntsville
10.12 inches below normal in Montgomery
21.11 inches below normal at Mobile (horrors)

LAST PARAGRAPH
Since this blog can be semi-informal, and even non-weather in nature, I want to close with this thought. Everytime I get out on the interstates, especially in rush-hour (is that now 24 hours) among the lane-changers, non-turn indicator users, speeders, the following too close people, the one-handed drivers talking on their cell phones, I think of this old Burma Shave sign. It says:

Dont lose your head
To gain a minute
You need your head
Your brains are in it

All of you are too young to remember those famous roadside signs except me...

Life goes on...

Here is the latest advisory on the new kid on the block. We also remind you that you can quickly receive a wealth of information on everything going on in the tropis on the ABC 33/40 Tropical Weather Page. This includes the latest advisories and discussions, track forecast chart, model forecasts, satellite pix, you name it. Here is the link:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

--------------------------------------------------
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART