Looking at the output of longer range computer model data, we are beginning to get the idea we might get pretty cold around here around the middle of this month. Needless to say, we aren’t comfortable projecting exactly when it will happen, and how low the mercury goes. But there is a very real chance some true Arctic air will flood much of the nation in about 10 to 15 days.

And, of course, everyone will want to know if we are going to see snow. I won’t even go there right now! But, it does bring to mind I probably need to share some winter weather tips since we are now into meteorological winter.

*Don’t get your weather information from the person next to you in the supermarket line reading the “Weekly World News”. Rumors are wild, out of control, and mostly wrong during winter weather events in Alabama. There is a good chance if you are reading this, you are reading our forecast discussions as well. But it is important to get weather information from a reliable source, and we make every effort to be as detailed as possible on our forecast panels and discussion products.

*Remember, “winter storm” doesn’t necessarily mean snow. Our worst winter weather events involve a long duration of freezing rain, which is simply rain that falls when the temperature is colder than 32 degrees. This puts a layer of ice on trees, power lines, bridges, and even general road surfaces if the ground is cold enough. Our last serious ice storm in Birmingham was way back in 1982, so we are statistically overdue for one.

*During any winter weather event, conditions can vary greatly from one part of town to another. You might have a cold rain, while other folks are getting lots of ice and snow. So, don't judge an entire event by what you see out your window an any one point in time.

*Why buy milk and bread before a snow scare? How about some Yoo-Hoos and Twinkies? Seriously, nobody needs to stock up on anything for the usual one or two inches of snow here. But, if we are talking about an ice storm, that is an entirely different ball game. And, you need lots more than milk and bread to be ready for an ice storm.

This is actually winter weather awareness week in Alabama, you can read more here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/aware/wwaw2004/index.html

Let the snow rumors begin.

The afternoon video update is posted:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The models are still suggesting some really cold air diving down into the U.S. at mid-December. Exactly how cold and how far south remains up in the air, but the weight of that air alone should mean the coldest temperatures so far this season for Alabama in 12 to 15 days.

Various model runs also show a few possibilities for storms to form on the southern flank of the cold air. Will be very interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks.

Nice to see the sun back; love the chill in that northwest breeze.

For some reason the early morning video update did not post properly; we loaded the file again and are are in busines now:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Will be very interesting to see how the mid-month "big chill" takes shape. A big blast of very cold air is almost certain for the northern states, the big question surrounds how much of that will reach Alabama. The model runs yesterday hinted at a big plunge southward, but today the latest GFS in hand backs off on that idea, and only allows a little bit of it to slip down here.

Also, this weekend we might have to hit the rain a little harder on Sunday.