That is a 1042 mb high over eastern Nebraska. This continues to confirm our forecast of highs only in the 30s next week!
This Is What I Am Talking About
December 1, 2005, 6:01 pm
This output from the European says it all. The map is valid for Wednesday night of next week:
That is a 1042 mb high over eastern Nebraska. This continues to confirm our forecast of highs only in the 30s next week!
That is a 1042 mb high over eastern Nebraska. This continues to confirm our forecast of highs only in the 30s next week!
Into The Deep Freeze Next Week
December 1, 2005, 3:52 pm
The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The deep south goes into the deep freeze next week.... that continues to be the big story.
TODAY: That vort max actually brought rain down to the surface... something I didn't expect. We actually had 0.01" here at our studio in Riverchase. Amazing rain drops reached the ground considering the dry air at the surface. That disturbance is long gone, and we will be clear and cold tonight. The GFS is showing a warm bias again... looks like we will have mid 20s for most places, with low 20s for the colder valleys.
WEEKEND RAIN: How about the new QPF guidance... it really goes crazy showing 4 inches of rain this weekend in northwest Alabama, with 2 to 4 inches elsewhere over north Alabama. Seems a little overdone to me... I think amounts of 1 inch are closer to being correct. Guess it depends on the strength of a wave that should form on the surface front on Sunday.
I do note that SPC has part of central and west Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms for day 3, or Saturday. Will do more research on this for tomorrow morning's video... at first glance the air seems too stable and severe parameters too low for any big problems.
COLD COLD COLD: Forget the GFS MOS... those numbers stink. We will forecast temperatures falling into the 30s Monday, with highs in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yes, maybe a few flurries Monday night or Tuesday morning, but they should not amount to anything if they come. The cold is the story.
I am beginning to think clouds could hang around into Wednesday... and accordingly I have bumped up low temperature forecasts due to this. If we do go clear early Wednesday, we go into the teens. If we are cloudy, we will be in the 20 to 25 degree range. The clouds are the result of a southwest flow aloft coming from a developing storm system over the southwest U.S. HMMMM Very cold air at the surface; storm system in the southwest U.S. If this were January, I would really be concerned about the potential for an ice storm. But, this is December.
It will be very, very interesting to see what happens with the storm system at the end of next week. The latest GFS (12Z) runs the low from near Shreveport to Indianapolis, with a strip of 6 to 12 inches of snow from Dallas to St. Louis. Mostly rain here in Alabama if that scenario is correct.
The more I study this, I do see a window of opportunity for some icing problems Thursday of next week. The GFS shows a 1032 mb Arctic high over Kentucky, and rain moving into Alabama from the west. The thickness and 850 mb temperature profile suggest some risk of freezing rain over north Alabama if the precipitation makes it that far north. I AM NOT FORECASTING THIS NOW, but just saying it is a possibility. We are more than seven days away from the event. Remember, freezing rain is liquid precipitation that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder, and can coat everything with ice.
LONG RANGE: We might have a nice moderating trend over the latter half of the month if the GFS is correct, but even then I think temperatures will remain below normal.
50s/30s GUYS: I get lots of e-mail from people telling me about agencies or weather companies forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s next week. This is probably based on automated forecasting using the GFS MOS products, which as I said at the top of this discussion, stink in the longer ranges during temperatures anomalies in the cold weather season.
Check out this paragraph from J.B.'s discussion over on the seven day page this afternoon:
"INTERESTING UPCOMING WEATHER: A huge high pressure system as strong as 1046 milibars will be settling down over the northern states during the next few days. Look for some increasingly cold temperatures with this system. A 1046 high is very strong, more akin to mid-winter. This morning the temperature drooped to 16 below zero at Mud Lake and 22 below at the Point 6 Radar Site--both in Montana. It was 12 below in Browning. McCarthy, Alaska had 38 below."
No way we have 50s and 30s next week.
I sure enjoyed speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... I am so thankful for their service to our nation. The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The deep south goes into the deep freeze next week.... that continues to be the big story.
TODAY: That vort max actually brought rain down to the surface... something I didn't expect. We actually had 0.01" here at our studio in Riverchase. Amazing rain drops reached the ground considering the dry air at the surface. That disturbance is long gone, and we will be clear and cold tonight. The GFS is showing a warm bias again... looks like we will have mid 20s for most places, with low 20s for the colder valleys.
WEEKEND RAIN: How about the new QPF guidance... it really goes crazy showing 4 inches of rain this weekend in northwest Alabama, with 2 to 4 inches elsewhere over north Alabama. Seems a little overdone to me... I think amounts of 1 inch are closer to being correct. Guess it depends on the strength of a wave that should form on the surface front on Sunday.
I do note that SPC has part of central and west Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms for day 3, or Saturday. Will do more research on this for tomorrow morning's video... at first glance the air seems too stable and severe parameters too low for any big problems.
COLD COLD COLD: Forget the GFS MOS... those numbers stink. We will forecast temperatures falling into the 30s Monday, with highs in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yes, maybe a few flurries Monday night or Tuesday morning, but they should not amount to anything if they come. The cold is the story.
I am beginning to think clouds could hang around into Wednesday... and accordingly I have bumped up low temperature forecasts due to this. If we do go clear early Wednesday, we go into the teens. If we are cloudy, we will be in the 20 to 25 degree range. The clouds are the result of a southwest flow aloft coming from a developing storm system over the southwest U.S. HMMMM Very cold air at the surface; storm system in the southwest U.S. If this were January, I would really be concerned about the potential for an ice storm. But, this is December.
It will be very, very interesting to see what happens with the storm system at the end of next week. The latest GFS (12Z) runs the low from near Shreveport to Indianapolis, with a strip of 6 to 12 inches of snow from Dallas to St. Louis. Mostly rain here in Alabama if that scenario is correct.
The more I study this, I do see a window of opportunity for some icing problems Thursday of next week. The GFS shows a 1032 mb Arctic high over Kentucky, and rain moving into Alabama from the west. The thickness and 850 mb temperature profile suggest some risk of freezing rain over north Alabama if the precipitation makes it that far north. I AM NOT FORECASTING THIS NOW, but just saying it is a possibility. We are more than seven days away from the event. Remember, freezing rain is liquid precipitation that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder, and can coat everything with ice.
LONG RANGE: We might have a nice moderating trend over the latter half of the month if the GFS is correct, but even then I think temperatures will remain below normal.
50s/30s GUYS: I get lots of e-mail from people telling me about agencies or weather companies forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s next week. This is probably based on automated forecasting using the GFS MOS products, which as I said at the top of this discussion, stink in the longer ranges during temperatures anomalies in the cold weather season.
Check out this paragraph from J.B.'s discussion over on the seven day page this afternoon:
"INTERESTING UPCOMING WEATHER: A huge high pressure system as strong as 1046 milibars will be settling down over the northern states during the next few days. Look for some increasingly cold temperatures with this system. A 1046 high is very strong, more akin to mid-winter. This morning the temperature drooped to 16 below zero at Mud Lake and 22 below at the Point 6 Radar Site--both in Montana. It was 12 below in Browning. McCarthy, Alaska had 38 below."
No way we have 50s and 30s next week.
I sure enjoyed speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... I am so thankful for their service to our nation. The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.....
Radar Note
December 1, 2005, 11:29 am
Just got a note from Gary Watkins, our operations manager here... a crew from Denver will be in town for the next four to five days, and will be installing a big hardware upgrade on our Doppler Radar system atop Double Oak Mountain in Shelby county. So... we will be pulling our radar images off the web later today.
The radar system has been up on top of that mountain for 9 years keeping an eye on the sky for us; it was time for a major overhaul. We will let you know when it goes back in service...
Just swinging by the office on the way to the midday speech at Inverness. Enjoyed seeing a big crowd at the Habitat for Humanity ground breaking this morning at Irondale...
And, yes, it rained on me coming to the station. Rain drops that were NOT in the forecast. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. That is a good example, however, of how you don't need to fall into the trap of using model MOS guidance blindly. If the lower atmosphere would have been a little colder we could be having snowflakes now.
And yes, I did peek at the 12Z GFS... still looks COLD next week. It shows a big 1044 mb high over Montana in the core of the cold air with rising pressure. Details coming up on here a little later... stay tuned...
The radar system has been up on top of that mountain for 9 years keeping an eye on the sky for us; it was time for a major overhaul. We will let you know when it goes back in service...
Just swinging by the office on the way to the midday speech at Inverness. Enjoyed seeing a big crowd at the Habitat for Humanity ground breaking this morning at Irondale...
And, yes, it rained on me coming to the station. Rain drops that were NOT in the forecast. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. That is a good example, however, of how you don't need to fall into the trap of using model MOS guidance blindly. If the lower atmosphere would have been a little colder we could be having snowflakes now.
And yes, I did peek at the 12Z GFS... still looks COLD next week. It shows a big 1044 mb high over Montana in the core of the cold air with rising pressure. Details coming up on here a little later... stay tuned...
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
A Bit of Light Rain
December 1, 2005, 10:38 am
An approaching cold front has created some cloud cover over North and Central Alabama.
Radar also shows a band of rain moveing across the area. Most of this rain is evaporating before reaching the ground.
However, a little light rain has been reported at the surface in Cullman, Tuscaloosa, Columbus, Miss., and we have had a few sprinkles in Northeast Trussville.
Radar also shows a band of rain moveing across the area. Most of this rain is evaporating before reaching the ground.
However, a little light rain has been reported at the surface in Cullman, Tuscaloosa, Columbus, Miss., and we have had a few sprinkles in Northeast Trussville.
Next Week Looks Very Cold
December 1, 2005, 7:16 am
The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The big story continues to be cold weather next week. Still looks like the coldest air so far this season, and a chance we reach the teens by the middle of next week, especially Wednesday morning. Nailing details will be hard to do, but cold is the big word.
SHORT TERM: A nice little snow storm is passing north of us this morning... the trailing front will bring scattered clouds and a fresh surge of cool air tonight and tomorrow. The snow cover continues to increase up north, meaning air from the Arctic/Polar region will not modify much by the time it reaches us when the "back door" is open next week.
WEEKEND: Rain will fall on Alabama this weekend. QPF still in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range here; the most significant rain will probably come on Sunday. A thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday, but severe weather looks very unlikely. Still no sign of a big organized low in the Gulf...
HERE COMES THE COLD: I still think temperatures will on Monday, possibly reaching the 30s by afternoon. Then, on Tuesday highs in the 30s seem likely as the "Gates To The Yukon" will be open. Yeah, the 00Z and the 06Z runs are not as cold for us, but once again I totally distrust MOS products, and the thickness values on the runs. The 12Z run yesterday seemed to hit the nail on the head. Look at these CURRENT temperatures as I write this:
Glennallen, Alaska -27
Havre, Montana -9
Great Falls, Montana -6
Hettinger, North Dakota -6
I looked back on GFS MOS products for some of these nothern cities several days ago, and the GFS MOS was in some cases 20 degrees too warm! It really struggles with extreme variations from climatology in the cold season days in advance.
Back to next week, seems like Wednesday will be the coldest morning with the potential for teens across north Alabama. Snow flurries will be possible Monday night, possibly Tuesday, but once again the chance of any accumulating snow looks really small if we see snow flakes at all. The big story is the cold.
JUST FOR FUN: A storm system will come along in the December 8-10 time frame. The GFS shows thickness values warm enough for all rain. Remember, snow is very rare here in December, so trying to get a snow event this time of the year is hard. But again, the players will be on the field. You have the players, you can get the touchdown.
The 384 hour output of the 06Z GFS does show a nice snowstorm here (December 15), but only fools and strangers forecast storms of the 384 run of the GFS. But it does show what is just a possibility if you get the players on the field.
My friends Josh Johnson (chief meteorologist at WTOK-TV in Meridian, MS) and Brian Peters of our staff are putting together an interesting study on the correlation of snow events in Alabama and the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Seems like it snows much more often in December during these "warm" phases of the AMO (and we are in a warm phase now). I will post their findings when complete. But again, even in those warm phases snow events in December just don't happen on a frequent basis.
NOTES: Wow... thanks for all the supporting comments on the post below this one. Didn't mean to throw a pity party, I was just trying to show our level of commitment to the people of east Alabama. I have been getting nasty notes for the last 27 years, that is just part of this business. If you don't have a thick skin this is not a job for you! Thanks for the support... I really do appreciate it. An encourging word goes a long way.
I will be speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... and will be back in the office for the next video and discussion by 3:30 p.m.!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The big story continues to be cold weather next week. Still looks like the coldest air so far this season, and a chance we reach the teens by the middle of next week, especially Wednesday morning. Nailing details will be hard to do, but cold is the big word.
SHORT TERM: A nice little snow storm is passing north of us this morning... the trailing front will bring scattered clouds and a fresh surge of cool air tonight and tomorrow. The snow cover continues to increase up north, meaning air from the Arctic/Polar region will not modify much by the time it reaches us when the "back door" is open next week.
WEEKEND: Rain will fall on Alabama this weekend. QPF still in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range here; the most significant rain will probably come on Sunday. A thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday, but severe weather looks very unlikely. Still no sign of a big organized low in the Gulf...
HERE COMES THE COLD: I still think temperatures will on Monday, possibly reaching the 30s by afternoon. Then, on Tuesday highs in the 30s seem likely as the "Gates To The Yukon" will be open. Yeah, the 00Z and the 06Z runs are not as cold for us, but once again I totally distrust MOS products, and the thickness values on the runs. The 12Z run yesterday seemed to hit the nail on the head. Look at these CURRENT temperatures as I write this:
Glennallen, Alaska -27
Havre, Montana -9
Great Falls, Montana -6
Hettinger, North Dakota -6
I looked back on GFS MOS products for some of these nothern cities several days ago, and the GFS MOS was in some cases 20 degrees too warm! It really struggles with extreme variations from climatology in the cold season days in advance.
Back to next week, seems like Wednesday will be the coldest morning with the potential for teens across north Alabama. Snow flurries will be possible Monday night, possibly Tuesday, but once again the chance of any accumulating snow looks really small if we see snow flakes at all. The big story is the cold.
JUST FOR FUN: A storm system will come along in the December 8-10 time frame. The GFS shows thickness values warm enough for all rain. Remember, snow is very rare here in December, so trying to get a snow event this time of the year is hard. But again, the players will be on the field. You have the players, you can get the touchdown.
The 384 hour output of the 06Z GFS does show a nice snowstorm here (December 15), but only fools and strangers forecast storms of the 384 run of the GFS. But it does show what is just a possibility if you get the players on the field.
My friends Josh Johnson (chief meteorologist at WTOK-TV in Meridian, MS) and Brian Peters of our staff are putting together an interesting study on the correlation of snow events in Alabama and the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Seems like it snows much more often in December during these "warm" phases of the AMO (and we are in a warm phase now). I will post their findings when complete. But again, even in those warm phases snow events in December just don't happen on a frequent basis.
NOTES: Wow... thanks for all the supporting comments on the post below this one. Didn't mean to throw a pity party, I was just trying to show our level of commitment to the people of east Alabama. I have been getting nasty notes for the last 27 years, that is just part of this business. If you don't have a thick skin this is not a job for you! Thanks for the support... I really do appreciate it. An encourging word goes a long way.
I will be speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... and will be back in the office for the next video and discussion by 3:30 p.m.!
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