Storm Alert 2006!

We are about three weeks away from the 9th annual Storm Alert weather tour across Alabama. We will have five stops this year: Hamilton on February 2 at the Bevill State Auditorium; Homewood on February 9 at the Homewood High School auditorium; Talladega on February 16 at the Ritz Theater on the downtown square, Gadsden on February 23 at the Convention Hall, and Northport on February 28 at the Northport Civic Center. All of the shows will begin at 7:00, and as always we suggest you get there early to get a good seat. We promise to have you on your way by 8:15.

We received dozens of wonderful offers from various communities, churches, and other organizations to host a tour stop. With such a large market area and only five stops on the tour, it will take us many years to get the show to every community. We are delighted to have Storm Alert tour stops in Hamilton and Talladega for the first time this year. The tour has multiple purposes; but we really hope it goes a long way in getting Alabamians ready for the spring severe weather season, which is right around the corner in March, April, and May. Also, you get a chance to meet the “weather guys” here at ABC 33/40, and we have the opportunity to tell some great Alabama weather stories.

This year I will be sharing the story of Alabama’s greatest tornado outbreak, on March 21, 1932. Hundreds were killed, and you will meet one man who survived the storm in Chilton county, but he lost both parents and four siblings. I have been wanting to do this story for years, and I am delighted to have it for you in 2006. Bill Castle is putting the story together now, and he is the best. You will enjoy it if you are interested in weather, or Alabama history.

As always, the Storm Alert tour is completely free. We hope to see you along the way this year!


Rain Progress--8:30 pm Report

Rain continues to spread into Alabama from the west tonight.

At 8:30 pm, the leading eastern edge of the rain was near the Athens-Double Springs-Jasper-Aliceville line. The rain was in no hurry and it may still be around 10 pm before it reaches the immediate Birmingham area.

Although a few sprinkles already in Trussville.

Not much lightning remaining in this broad band of showers. Most of it was along the Mississippi-Alabama border.

You may still hear a bit of thunder as the precipitation moves through later tonight. At this time, in West Alabama, the showers are light to moderate with a few spots heavy. Based on radar estimates, about 0.60 is the most rain in West Alabama so far.

Earlier today, there was thunder and lightning when the showers and storms moved through Mississippi. These two rainfall totals, both from West Mississippi in the Delta Country:

1.07 at Greenwood
0.77 at Greenville

Both of those cities are on U.S. 82.

A FEW ADDITIONAL RANDOM NOTES

+ Another wet day in Seattle with one inch of rain. Salem, Ore., got 1.41 inches and Eugene 1.34

+ Up in West Kentucky, 1.89 inches of rain in the last 24 hours at Paducah.

+ Warmest temperature in the USA this afternoon was 81 in South Florida at Ft. Meyers.

* By far, the most lightning tonight is way down in the Central Gulf of Mexico.

+ Another unseasonably warm day across Alabama. These official highs:

71 at Birmingham Airport and Shelby County Airport
72 in Anniston
73 in Tuscaloosa, Montgomery and Pinson

These temperatures are 20 degrees above normal for early January and are normal for the second week of April.


Here Comes The Rain

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Nice little band of showers and storms to the west on radar this afternoon. Sure looks like our best chance of rain will come from about 8:00 tonight through 3:00 a.m. tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch look likely, but no severe weather. There is a nice little bow echo moving through southern Kentucky, but that will remain well to the north of Alabama.

We clear up quickly tomorrow, and temperatures will only be a little cooler. Thursday should be another beautiful day with ample sunshine and temperatures headed toward 70.

END OF THE WEEK STORM: Don't like the look of the GFS with Friday's system... it is weak and fast now. Both the European and the NAM are slower and stronger,and are preferred at this time. Won't change much; showers and strong storms on Friday, maybe an outside risk of a few severe storms. Then, sharply colder on Saturday with a chance of morning snow flurries and temperatures struggling to reach the low to mid 40s.

We should see a freeze early Sunday, and then yet another warming trend beginning Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: The next storm system will bring showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday, and another quick pop of cold air. Not unlike the last two or three systems that have affected Alabama.

LONG RANGE: The GFS does look a little colder over much of the nation in the 10 to 15 day period, with storms shunted a little more to the south. Some of that cold air building over Canada and Alaska will be seeping in here at that point. If we can get a nice block with an eastern U.S. upper trough (negative NAO) in place, look out for a dose of reality late this month.

This has been a non-stop day... enjoyed the visit to the New Horizons group at UAB this morning, and seeing the kids at Greystone and Crestline Elementary Schools. Crestline will be featured on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 this afternoon!


Big, Big Change in Oklahoma--a Blue Norther?

The temperature soared to 72 Sunday in Oklahoma City, a record for the date and the warmest January 8 in 83 years.

At 7 o'clock this morning, it was 30 degrees with light snow at Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma City.

Out in the Western Oklahoma Panhandle, where the tumbleweeds and jackrabbits roam free, it was 17 degrees at Guyman at 7 am. Gage reported 14. If you haven't experienced huge tumbleweeds bouncing off your automobile, you have not lived a full life.

And, look at this!

10 inches of snow on the ground at Lamont, Oklahama, in Grant County
8 inches at Marshall in Logan County
8 inches at Braman

Both lanes of U.S. 60 were closed this morning near the Grant-Kay county line due to an accident involving a fully loaded cattle truck. No doubt snow related.

This snow will help hold down the grass fires. However, the NWS in Oklahoma City (Norman) warns that fire danger will become high again toward the end of the week. Especially south of Interstate 40 where there was not much precipitation with this storm.

An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected over Northeast Oklahoma today possibly including the Tulsa area.

This big change in Oklahoma reminds me of a Blue Norther, although not a classic case. You have never seen that term used as part of a weather warning or forecast. It is not a legitimate forecast term.

It is a regional term.

An ancient legend of the Great Plains.

I will try to write a blog story about Blue Northers in the next day or so. To me, it is one of the most interesting things in weather lore.


Just Like Spring

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I am getting e-mails from people who are telling me that they can never remember winters being this mild, and they wonder if "global warming" means it won't snow ever again here.

HMMM.. we are coming off one the coldest Decembers in our nation's history, with temperatures colder than -40 recorded in the continental U.S. Short memory???

And, our mild weather isn't a good sign of what is going on around our planet:

*NEW DELHI - The Indian capital Sunday saw its first winter frost in 70 years as a cold wave sweeping in from the Himalayas killed more people in northern India overnight, officials said. The capital city of 14 million people ordered schools shut for three days from Monday as the mercury for the first time since 1935 fell to 0.2 degrees Celsius (32.36 Fahrenheit), leaving mounds of ice on parked cars. White-laced streets greeted early risers, but any novelty value brought by the cold soon died as frost on power cables sparked partial power cuts across large swathes of New Delhi, said the privately-run BSES utility provider.

*TSUNAN, Japan, Jan. 7 - After clambering out a second-story window on Saturday, Kimie Kuwahara, 80, stood atop the 10-foot-high wall of snow surrounding her house. She surveyed this region called the snow country - the starkly white mountain range that spread out in the distance behind her, the record snowfall that had blanketed all but the triangle-shaped roofs in her neighborhood. The snow has buried cars and houses and trifled with Japan's famed bullet trains. It has flanked plowed streets with 10-foot-high walls of snow and transformed towns into white labyrinths inside which human beings scurry as if they were mice.

The cold has also been extreme in Europe.

THE ALABAMA STORY: Off the soapbox and back to our situation... looks like the main round of showers and storms with the incoming system will come from about 9:00 tonight through 3:00 a.m. tomorrow. Rainfall amounts from .25 to .50 inch are likely, and once again severe storms do not look likely with marginal wind fields and instability.

Tomorrow will be a little cooler, but not much. The sun should shine much of the day, and Thursday looks great with ample sunshine and temperatures rising to near 70.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM: A stronger system rolls in here on Friday with showers and strong thunderstorms. Lots of model disagreement... but for now we can't rule out a few severe storms Friday afternoon. Lots of questions... we need to get this lead system out of the way then we can focus on this one. We could see rain amounts to one inch Friday.

COLD CHANGE: The GFS has the deep and cold upper trough speeding through here... and if you were to accept that solution we won't be as cold as what we suggest in our Saturday forecast (a high of 42 with clouds and morning snow flurries). But, the European shows a cold core upper low over western Kentucky with very low heights down into Alabama on Saturday, which could support our forecast. We won't change anything for now and will review the 12Z models later this morning.

LONG RANGE: The next system comes in here around Tuesday of next week with yet another round of showers and storms, and another quick pop of cold air. Still no sign of any blocking for the next two weeks, so the weather will remain very changeable. NAO still looks neutral through the end of the month.

STORM ALERT 2006: Here is a quick peek at the dates and locations for our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama:

February 2 - Hamilton (Bevill State)
February 9 - Homewood (Homewood High School)
February 16 - Talladega (Ritz Theatre)
February 23 - Gadsden (Convention Hall)
February 28 - Northport (Civic Center)

We had dozens of offers from wonderful communities and facilities to host the show... we appreciate all of them. With such a vast territory to cover, it takes years to get around to see everyone. We are delighted to have shows in Hamilton and Talladega for the first time.

Our shows feature some incredible Alabama weather stories; severe weather safety information, and we always give away some cool prizes. It is also you chance to meet our weather team face to face. We love the tour every year, and I will have details of the content in coming weeks. Every show will begin at 7:00, and we promise to have you on your way by 8:15 (I know about school nights and getting kids to bed!).

TODAY: A full plate today... I will be speaking at UAB this morning, and have stops later in the day at Greystone Elementary in Hoover and Crestline Elementary in Mountain Brook. The afternoon video might be a tad late this afternoon, but I will do my best to have it posted by 3:30. Don't forget you can see our live streaming radar by clicking on the live stream link on the ABC 33/40 main weather page....


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