On this date 12 years ago we were preparing for a storm of historic proportion. In fact, those were the words I used on the air as I did my best to get people prepared for a major late season winter storm. In March 1993, my colleagues were Kevin Selle, who is now in Dallas at the Texas Cable News Network, and Dan Satterfield, who is chief meteorologist at WHNT-TV, Channel 19, in Huntsville. We were all convinced that Birmingham was about to get a significant amount of snow, and we weren’t sure how to convince people we were really serious. On the 10:00 news on Thursday March 11,1993 I mentioned Birmingham getting six to ten inches of snow. Then, on Friday morning March 12th, we did our best using television, radio, and our new weather fax product (not many people used the Internet in 1993) to get the word out concerning this life threatening and very dangerous storm system.

Most of you know the “rest of the story”. Our rather bold predictions of six to ten inches of snow were not bold enough. Birmingham’s official snow total during the Blizzard of 1993 was 13 inches. Some of the southern suburbs, including places right around our current studio in Riverchase (ABC 33/40 didn’t exist in 1993, we were working at WBRC back then), measured over 20 inches. During the peak of the storm, winds gusted to hurricane force at our office on Red Mountain, and convective snow bands produced a rare Alabama display of lightning, thunder, and heavy snow. Life was disrupted for three days, and some people had no power for over a week.

I am sure Bill Murray will write about the Blizzard of 1993 in this space as we hit the 12th anniversary this weekend. It was a once in a lifetime storm that none of us will forget!

The Thursday afternoon web video is online:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I love March Madness. Mississippi State about to play Georgia over in Atlanta... has the chance to meet Winsome Frazier over in Starkville this past weekend. Will be pulling for MSU as usual. Would love to see Bama and Auburn win a few as well.

Another clipper will bring come clouds in here tonight and tomorrow morning, but nothing more than a few sprinkles will fall from those clouds due to the low level dry air. The winds of March will really be blowing, west winds could gust as high as 30 to 35 mph tomorrow. Time to get out the kites.

Saturday should be a nice day, but still an amazing variation in high temperature forecasts from model output. The GFS shows 66 on Saturday, but the NAM and NGM show 51. We will stick with 61 for now.

A weak cold front will then trigger a few showers Sunday night and Monday morning, but once again the moisture will be limited and rain totals should be light.

ST PATRICK'S DAY STORM: This is the next big system to watch. Every model run looks different; the latest 12Z GFS takes the big surface low from the Texas Panhandle, along I-40, to near Nashville. This would suggest the threat of heavy rain, severe weather, or both.

The European has the surface low near Mobile.

One way or another, a major storm will affect Alabama in the March 16-19 time frame. Just too early to tell if we will deal with snow, heavy rain, severe weather, or some kind of combination. This might be the big, bad storm that breaks down the block and gets us in a more progressive and stormy pattern for the latter half of March...

It has been nearly 6 months since Hurricane Ivan slammed the Alabama Gulf Coast, and according to the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau, the recovery is coming along nicely!

This morning the man heading up the Visitors and Convention Bureau, Herb Malone, was a guest on Good Morning Alabama. He says that 51% (6,572 units) of hotel accomodations in Baldwin County are now open, and up to 90% of the rooms should be ready by June!

*73% of attractions are now open
*78% of cruises and charters are open
*100% of golf courses are open and in good shape
*100% of marinas are open
*66% of restaurants are open
*81% of retail areas are open

Herb also says they are building a better beach in Ivan's aftermath. Crews have dumped 6 million cubic yards of sand along the coast, which is the equivalent of 5 dump truck loads per foot of beach!

If you have plans to head down to the Alabama Gulf Coast for Spring Break this year, you can keep up with the progress of the rebuilding/clean-up effort at www.gulfshores.com or www.orangebeach.com !

The Thursday morning video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Good to see J.B. Elliott up and running early this morning with his 5:11 a.m. post. Gotta love his attitude on life. I love reading his material; better than watching the Andy Griffith show!

Lets hit the highlights here:

*TODAY: Cool and dry with intervals of sunshine. We are forecast a high of only 52, which is 13 degrees below normal for March 10.

*TOMORROW: The next clipper system coming down the back side of the eastern trough will bring clouds, but not much rain. Models trends look very dry, and we have only mentioned a few sprinkles tomorrow morning.

*SATURDAY: Should be a nice day with ample sunshine, but the model output statistics are all over the road. The GFS spits out a high of 65; the NAM has a high of 47. Whats up with that??????? We will lean more toward the GFS; for now we have a high of 61 in our forecast package.

*SUNDAY AND BEYOND: Confidence is low due to a wild array of model solutions. I mean things really get muddy out here.

We still have a chance of light showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, but the latest run (06Z) of the GFS keeps us dry on Sunday and brings in some light rain on Monday. For now we will leave the forecast unchanged and wait on the 12Z runs.

And, the latest run of the 06Z GFS pretty much loses our St. Patricks Day storm, the one it has been advertising in the March 16-19 time frame.

Despite this, I would not be shocked to see a major storm developing in that time frame. The 18Z run from yesterday had a huge system roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico, and then rolling up the Atlantic seaboard. If you took that run on face value Memphis would have 5 to 7 inches of snow, we would have a bunch of rain and maybe some thunder as well. The ECMWF is similar to this solution. Like a mini-1993 storm with a track more to the north. Giving credibility to this idea is the fact that most blocking patterns, like the one we are in (that big bad block over Greenland is the reason the Polar vortex has been stuck over eastern Canada giving us the cold air in March) end up with a big bad storm breaking it down. Will we have a big bad storm in the March 16-19 period? Sure possible even though the latest GFS says no. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Will see more pre-schoolers today at Christ Methodist Church on Caldwell Mill Road today. Every school program this week has been with pre-school groups. They are a great reminder that we all take life a little too seriously at times! I think everyone needs to be silly every once in a while and get some good laughs. We had quite a case of this last Saturday night at our annual Little Dooey BBQ dinner in Starkville!

.....Nothing more enjoyable than to awaken at 4:30 and start a new day with a fresh cup of hot coffee...yummy, yummy.

.....Practically all of the overnight precipitation is gone...outta here...about 99.999% of it was rain and drizzle.

.....Maybe we should consider those few big flakes of snow in Clay County last evening as our "Blizzard of '05."

.....By the way, we are only a couple of days away from the 12th anniversary of our famous "Blizzard of 93." Many folks have said that we will never see another winter storm like that in our lifetime. We just don't know. Nature just loves to throw curve-balls at weather forecasters. I remember when I was in the NWS that South Baldwin County went through two "100 Year Floods" just a month or so apart.

.....Will we still see snow this winter? Don't know, but it is not too late. Remember our "surprise" April snowstorm one year when dogwood trees were in full blossom and many flowers were blooming. Trees had a full coat of greenery. An erie sight. Robins were hopping around in the snow with a puzzled look on their face.

.....Temperatures this morning are 2 or 3 degrees higher than we anticipated for your daybreak....mostly in the middle 30s.

Enjoy your day. I certainly will. Life goes on.