The Tuesday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
SPC has placed much of Alabama under a slight risk of severe storms for the rest of the afternoon... they even issued a MCD (mesoscale convective discussion) for us and mentioned the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch.
I simply disagree. The 500 mb trough and the coldest air aloft is well to the east of us. Sure, maybe one or two isolated showers (we have a couple of them now around Smith Lake as I write this), that should be it.
The big story is the summer-like heat. We are still talking highs in the 86 to 89 degree range tomorrow and Thursday. I am sure we will hear from some people claiming they had a high of 95, but those folks are measuring the temperature of the thermometer and not the air! To measure temperature properly, you need to have the thermometer about six feet off the ground, in a good instrument shelter painted white, and over grass. One way or another the weather will be very warm, and what most will call hot over the next several days.
Guess you can't totally eliminate the chance of isolated afternoon showers each day, but warm air aloft and the upper ridge should crush most of the cumulus towers before they develop into storms.
THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS still suggests the best chance of showers and storms will come from about 4:00 Saturday afternoon through 11:00 Sunday morning. This timing will probably change as we get closer to the weekend. But, sure looks like we have a decent chance of getting a cold front all the way through, with drier and slightly cooler air by Monday of next week.
Enjoyed the visit with the 4th grade at Kitty Stone Elementary in Jacksonville today... they will be on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!
Bring On The Heat
May 10, 2005, 3:03 pmActive Weather Elsewhere
May 10, 2005, 11:20 am
It's a long stretch to say that the Spring severe weather season is completely over, but the weather pattern over North America sure does send a message that Alabama will not see too much active weather in the short-term. That doesn't mean no rain or storms, but the action will be relatively limited around here for the next few days.
Through this afternoon, there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the eastern half of the state. As of 11:15 this morning, the view from eastern Alabama on Towerlink 33/40 showed some cumulus clouds building upward over Calhoun County, but the radar was quiet except for some showers in northwest Georgia.
While the weather is calm around here, other parts of the nation are getting more active. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Nebraska and Iowa as well as the Texas Panhandle under a slight risk of severe weather. A storm chase team led by Ryan and Gina Wade from the University of South Alabama's Meteorology Program is in the Midwest today watching the developing weather situation in that part of the country. They will be out in the Great Plains for the next two weeks chasing storms and teaching their students with some real-world experience. If you would like to follow along with the USA chasers, they have a website that will be updated every day with pictures and a chase log at www.usouthal.edu/stormchasing
Through this afternoon, there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the eastern half of the state. As of 11:15 this morning, the view from eastern Alabama on Towerlink 33/40 showed some cumulus clouds building upward over Calhoun County, but the radar was quiet except for some showers in northwest Georgia.
While the weather is calm around here, other parts of the nation are getting more active. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Nebraska and Iowa as well as the Texas Panhandle under a slight risk of severe weather. A storm chase team led by Ryan and Gina Wade from the University of South Alabama's Meteorology Program is in the Midwest today watching the developing weather situation in that part of the country. They will be out in the Great Plains for the next two weeks chasing storms and teaching their students with some real-world experience. If you would like to follow along with the USA chasers, they have a website that will be updated every day with pictures and a chase log at www.usouthal.edu/stormchasing
Summer Arrives Early
May 10, 2005, 5:38 am
The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Guess we might see a few showers forming later today near the Georgia border, but it sure looks like most places will stay dry today as the weak upper trough moves on to the east. Most places did not get enough rain to measure last night; Birmingham's total was a whopping 0.01". That is now the rain total for the month of May, and don't look for any rain through Friday.
The big story is we are expecting the warmest weather so far this year tomorrow and Thursday, with highs in the 86 to 89 degree range. For tomorrow afternoon, the NGM is spitting out 89, while the GFS has 87. The ETA is running way too cool with highs only in the low 80s. The upper ridge and warm air aloft means little chance of rain.
WEEKEND: The next storm system once again will bypass Alabama to the north, but the trailing cold front will pass through here at some point Sunday. The latest run of the GFS in hand has the front zipping through Sunday morning. In advance of this, there should be a fairly decent chance of showers and storms beginning Saturday afternoon lasting through at least part of the day Sunday. Severe weather is doubtful with the best support to the north, but hopefully some places will get a half inch of rain or so. We sure need it...
THE LONG RANGE: The GFS not really consistent in the longer range. The 00Z run develops a big 5880 circle on the 500 mb chart over parts of West Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and New Mexico in the May 19-20 time frame (can you say HOT
, with a trough over the northeast. Bottom line is that it still looks like no serious severe weather threat or heavy rain episode is showing up at this time.
Headed over to Jacksonville today to see the fourth graders at Kitty Stone Elementary school... one of my May traditions. I always enjoy the visit.. when I see those kids I know the summer break is almost here!
Will be back in the office for the afternoon update later today.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Guess we might see a few showers forming later today near the Georgia border, but it sure looks like most places will stay dry today as the weak upper trough moves on to the east. Most places did not get enough rain to measure last night; Birmingham's total was a whopping 0.01". That is now the rain total for the month of May, and don't look for any rain through Friday.
The big story is we are expecting the warmest weather so far this year tomorrow and Thursday, with highs in the 86 to 89 degree range. For tomorrow afternoon, the NGM is spitting out 89, while the GFS has 87. The ETA is running way too cool with highs only in the low 80s. The upper ridge and warm air aloft means little chance of rain.
WEEKEND: The next storm system once again will bypass Alabama to the north, but the trailing cold front will pass through here at some point Sunday. The latest run of the GFS in hand has the front zipping through Sunday morning. In advance of this, there should be a fairly decent chance of showers and storms beginning Saturday afternoon lasting through at least part of the day Sunday. Severe weather is doubtful with the best support to the north, but hopefully some places will get a half inch of rain or so. We sure need it...
THE LONG RANGE: The GFS not really consistent in the longer range. The 00Z run develops a big 5880 circle on the 500 mb chart over parts of West Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and New Mexico in the May 19-20 time frame (can you say HOT
, with a trough over the northeast. Bottom line is that it still looks like no serious severe weather threat or heavy rain episode is showing up at this time.Headed over to Jacksonville today to see the fourth graders at Kitty Stone Elementary school... one of my May traditions. I always enjoy the visit.. when I see those kids I know the summer break is almost here!
Will be back in the office for the afternoon update later today.
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