We're all getting a bit groggy, but let's take a quick late night look at what's going on.

Arlene has slowed a little as she turns more toward the NW.

A HURRICANE WARNING was posted for part of the North-Central Gulf Coast at 10:00 p.m. from Pascagoula, Mississippi eastward to Destin, Florida. This, of course, includes all of the Alabama coast.

A HURRICANE WARNING means that hurricane conditions are expected generally within 24 hours.

A HURRICANE WATCH and TROPICAL STORM WARNING remain in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula, Mississippi and also from east of Destin, Florida eastward to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Arlene was about 245 miles SSE of Pensacola at 10:00 tonight moving NW at 16. She should continue in this general direction with some fluctuation in forward speed until landfall. The center should approach the Northern Gulf Coast Saturday afternoon or evening. Highest sustained winds are now about 70 mph with higher gusts mainly north and east of the center. She could become a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday.

The newest official track forecast chart looks like this:

landfall Saturday afternoon in the general vicinity of Gulf Shores, Fairhope and Daphne, then moving up the extreme west side of Alabama to near Livingston and into Pickens County by daybreak Sunday. Then continuing north to near Hamilton, Russellville and into West Tennessee.

She is a big one with a broad circulation.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of Alabama except extreme north.

Could be a few spinoff tornadoes, especially down south. The southern part of the state is under a slight risk area by the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow.

Arlene expected to produce total rain amounts of 4-8 inches along and east of this projected track across NW Florida and up through West Alabama. As much as 12 inches may fall along the Eastern Gulf Coast.

A FEW SPOT REPORTS AS OF 10:00 P.M.

BUOY 42039 115 miles SE of Pensacola
wind ENE, 37, gusts to 43 mph, 14-foot waves

WEST FLORIDA BUOY 106 miles WNW of Tampa
wind gusts 40 mph with 11-foot waves

MOBILE SOUTH BUOY located 64 miles south of Dauphin Island
wind ENE gusts to 34, 11-foot waves

Remember, these distances are in nautical miles.

Great to have Jason Simpson down on the coast, not only doing live TV cut-ins, but also posting on the 33/40 weather blog. That may be a first.

We just finished eating at the Gulf Breeze restaurant here in Gulf Shores, and we are preparing for the 10 PM news updates. Not much has changed over the last few hours, though. JB Elliot posted some good information about wind/sea reports just below here.

Winds here in Gulf Shores are still between 15 and 25 miles per hour, and we will likely see an increase in wind speed, possibly up to tropical storm force (39 MPH) by morning. Life is still going on at a fairly normal pace here along the Alabama Gulf Coast tonight even though Arlene is less than 24 hours away!

The Gulf is being churned up by Arlene, a storm that is inching closer and closer to Category 1 Hurricane status. The new advisory will be out by 10 PM, and we'll have a live update on ABC 33/40 News at 10!

8 PM SPOT REPORTS
(Except the reports from data buoys 7 pm)

Mobile Airport, Partly cloudy, wind east 8 mph, no rain
Pensacola, cloudy, wind east 8, no rain
Destin, Mostly cloudy, wind NE 12
Fort Walton (Hurlburt Field, Mary Ester) wind east 14, no rain
Panama City (Tyndall AFB) showers, wind NE 10
Key West, Light rain, wind SE sustained at 33
Flamingo (South Florida) wind SE, gusts 37

Mobile South Buoy #42040 64NM south of Dauphin Island, wind ENE 31 mph with 8.5 foot waves

Dauphin Island Buoy, wind ENE gusts to 29

Pensacola South Buoy, 115nm ESE Pensacola, wind east 36, gusts 45 with 10 foot waves.

No really heavy rain across Alabama at this hour.

A band of rain and showers across the NE part moving NW.

Widespread mostly light rain over the East Central secitions.

Lots of rain over Central and South Georgia spreading NW.

The latest on Arlene: http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

In a nutshell:

.....She has grown stronger.
.....Located about 295 miles SSE of Pensacola
.....Moving NNW 18 mph.
.....Highest sustained winds now up to 70 mph, mainly north and east of the center, close to hurricane strength
.....She may become a hurricane later tonight or Saturday.
.....projected path is onshore near the Alabama-NW Florida border Saturday, could be Pensacola or Orange Beach
.....Then northward through West Alabama.
.....Flash Flood Watch all of Alabama except the Extreme North
.....Always a chance of some spinoff tornadoes with landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes.
.....South Alabama outlooked for that possibility tomorrow

Be sure and watch for Jason Simpson's blog posts from the coast. They will make very interesting reading.

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My degree in Broadcast Meteorology is one of the tracks students in Geoscience can take. This major involves courses in science and communication. The classes challenge you to effectively educate the general public through knowledge of the science and developed television skills. Many classes involve practicing weather forecasts for actual television shows. All of this prepares students for on-air meteorology. The degree can lead to jobs at local television stations, national networks, or even radio. Mississippi State and the University of South Alabama offer Broadcast Meteorology. Another option is to first obtain a degree in meteorology and then master in communication.

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As of 6:50 PM, the weather on the immediate Alabama Gulf Coast is relatively quiet. Just looking outside here along Beach Boulevard in Gulf Shores, you really would not know that a potent Tropical Storm Arlene had her sights set on this section of beach if not for the red flag flying!

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Mobile and Baldwin Counties here in Alabama, and a Hurricane Watch is also in effect. At her current strength, Arlene could cause some serious problems with flooding and tree & power line damage in coastal Alabama, but if she does strengthen into a full-fledged hurricane, the problems could be more significant.

Most of the roads in Gulf Shores are busy with tourists going about normal business, but with a stiff 20 MPH wind at times and a darkening sky to the south, people are starting to take notice of what is lurking out over the Gulf. In the distance, I can see the old state pier still in tatters and there are long pipes where sand is moved up and down the newly-reconstructed beaches. The Gulf is very choppy; seas have increased to 3-5 feet and there are white caps as far out into the open waters as I can see.

Be sure to tune into ABC 33/40 News at 10:00 for a live update from our crew stationed here in Gulf Shores!

Line of showers over North and West Alabama extends from Huntsville to Jasper to Vernon. Moving NW. Weaker now with light to moderate rain.

Large mass of rain over North Florida and Central and South Georgia spreading NW into SE Alabama.

Not much going on along the Alabama/NW Florida Coast, rainwise.

Strongest winds over land are down the Florida Peninsula. Many areas reporting gusts to 30.

Strongest winds along the NW Florida-Alabama Coast 30 or less.

Good to see Jason Simpson now in place on the Alabama Coast and posting on the blog. Will be interesting to read his material over the weekend.

Flash Flood Watch for all of Central Alabama through Sunday Afternoon. In fact, only part of Alabama not under a Flash Flood Watch is the extreme north.

Again, check this link to get a wealth of tropical storm information, including the latest advisories and local statements.

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

We just arrived on the Alabama Gulf Coast a few minutes ago, and so far, it's business as usual in southern Baldwin County. Coming up at 6:00 we will have a live report from the coast just west of the "T" of Gulf Shores Parkway and Beach Boulevard.

ABC 33/40's Chris Tatum and I met a fairly heavy volume of traffic headed northbound from the coast; however, it looks at least right now like most of the vacationers and locals are hanging around for a little while longer! The water is choppy, the sky is dark, and we'll be here until Arlene shows what hand she will deal the northern Gulf Coast!

Lots of showers across Alabama.

At 4:15, a line of heavy showers was near the Tuscaloosa-Demopolis-Livingston line moving NW.

Changes in the latest Hurricane Advisory. The 4 pm advisory shifts the track eastward a bit and the forward speed of Arlene has increased. In a nutshell:

Landfall Orange Beach-Pensacola area Saturday. Arlene moving almost due north at 17 mph. She could possibly be hurricane strength at landfall.

After landfall, northward through West Alabama. (Earlier track had it through East Mississippi) Latest track is to near York, Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Russellville. Then to near Nashville by early Sunday afternoon.

This will shift the threat of heavy rain further eastward in Alabama.

Again, check the 3340 tropical page often for complete advisories, track forecasts, local statements, you name it.

Here is the link:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

Flash Flood Watch for a big part of Alabama. Here in Central Alabama it continues from the present time through Sunday afternoon.

Numerous showers across Alabama this afternoon, moving NW. Some were heavy.

At 3 pm, it was pouring across parts of Walker County, especially near Jasper. Also heavy rain over Wilcox County.

The NWS has all of Central Alabama already under a Flash Flood Watch through Sunday Afternoon. Places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Talladega, Montgomery just to name a few.

The NWS estimates storm total rainfall 4 to 8 inches West Alabama and 2 to 5 in the east. If the storm moves faster, less rainfall.

Scan down to see James Spann's afternoon discussion and his estimated storm totals.

Also be sure to check the 3340 tropical weather page for a wealth of information about Arlene. The extra posts that we will be doing on this blog is mainly for late reports and other supplementary information that should be useful.

Here is the link:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb