You can see the hostile environment in which Tropical Depression Number One is embedded tonight.

The center of the disorganized system has been relocated north into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. The center was some 440 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida on the 10 p.m. advisory.

The storm is moving north northwest at 9 mph. It is expected to continue this motion through the overnight, with a gradual turn to the north and northeast occurring on Sunday.

The depression is very near tropical storm strength and any amount of organization and intensification will result in the storm being upgraded to Tropical Storm Alberto. This will likely happen on Sunday.

So, what should be Tropical Storm Alberto will likely make landfall on the Florida Coast north of Tampa Monday evening. Top winds should be 50 mph.

The storm will cross the Florida Peninsula and it will emerge into the Atlantic after midnight Tuesday. It will actualy intensify over the Atlantic, but it will be as a non-tropical system. It should skim the Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coasts as it accelerates northeast.

Impacts on the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast will be minimal. Some clouds and rain might impact the Panama City area late on Sunday into Monday, but areas west of Panama City should remain dry. It will become breezy along the Northwest Florida coast on Sunday into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between the developing low presure and higher pressure surrounding it.

Up to thirty inches of rain is expected over the mountains of western Cuba, which will cause massive flooding and mudslides.

Two reconnaissance missions are planned into the depression on Sunday. The first, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is expected to be in position at 7 a.m. The second, a NOAA aircraft is expected to fly a high altitude mission above 40,000 feet to sample the upper level environment around the storm tomorrow evening.

On this date back in 2001, the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison was moving into Southeast Louisiana. From the 5th through the 11th, Allison’s remnants dumped very heavy rainfall over the Atchafalaya and Vermillion River basins, causing serious flooding. 27.55 inches of rain fell during the period at Salt Point in St. Mary Parish. The amazing thing was that Allison redeveloped over land on the 11th, reforming an eye-like circulation center. The storm that had caused catastrophic flooding in the Houston area would move over the Southeast U.S. and up the East Coast causing flooding all the way from Texas to New England. Allison would become the costliest tropical storm in United States history. Not the costliest hurricane, but the costliest named tropical storm.

After the storm reached the Texas coast on the 6th, five people drowned and dozens had to be rescued from rough Gulf of Mexico waters during a two day period of rip currents along the Northwest Florida coast. The rip currents were caused by strong onshore winds that resulted from the combined effects of powerful swells and the gradient between strong high pressure and the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison.. Conditions became so bad that storm warning sirens were sounded at Pensacola Beach Victims included a 46 year old Tennessee man who went into the water to rescue his daughters and 48 year old man who was swimming with his son. If you are heading to the beach today, tomorrow or Tuesday, keep this in mind as rip currents could be possible with a tropical storm in the Gulf.

Tropical depression number one remains poorly organized over the northwestern Caribbean this afternoon.

An Air Force reconnaissance flight has really been unable to determine a defined center.

The depression is in an environment that hostile for intensification. It is still expected to become a tropical storm overnight. It now appears that the peak intensity may be closer to 50 mph than the 60 mph as was earlier thought.

But, having said that, forecasting intensity changes is the hardest part of tropical meteorology.

The models are still a little scattered in their solutions for the track. The GFDL/GFS solutions both take the storm into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then turn it northeast, crossing the coast north of Tampa early Tuesday morning.

The storm will cross the Peninsula and emerge into the open Atlantic, where it will intensify, but as a non-tropical low as it accelerates out to the northeast.

As for impact along the Gulf Coast, the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida should remain rain free for the most part during this situation. The only exception might be over toward Panama City where some showers may sneak in late tomorrow and Monday.

Rip currents will be a problem aong the Gulf Coast if the system strengthens into a tropical storm. Heavier than normal surf can cause deadly undertows a large distance from the storm center. During Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, several people lost their lives on the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast despite the fact that the tropical storm was making landfall near Houston.

The main danger from TD number one for now is heavy rains over Cuba and the Caymans.

No map discussion video today... Brian is on vacation this weekend.

The 12Z NAM is complete; the model remains an outlier, taking TD1 northward into southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi coast Tuesday evening. The Florida State MM5 is similar, taking the system into the northern Gulf very slowly.

I have no change in the thinking outlined here in recent days; the GFDL/GFS solution sure looks good; it takes the system northeast to a point near Cedar Key, Florida (north of Tampa), with landfall Monday as a tropical storm. This a favored track for June tropical cyclones (with origins in the region of TD1) based on climatology.

Some degree of shearing and marginal water temperatures should keep the intensity from getting out of hand; heavy rain and rough surf will be the big issue. The heaviest rain will be along and south of I-4, although the weather, of course, will be showery and breezy as far north as Tallahassee and Jacksonville.

The system will keep moving northeast, parallel to the Atlantic coast of the U.S.

This scenario keeps Alabama high and dry.

And, the weather for the central Gulf coast (Gulf Shores eastward to Panama City) should be fine, but rough surf and rip currents will be a problem for swimmers.

We have the latest NHC advisories and other data available, as always, on our tropical page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

More posts throughout the weekend... stay tuned...

Tropical depression number one has formed over the northwestern Caribbean according to the National hurricane Center.

Forecast is rather uncertain. Two of the main forecasting models carry it northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend area north of Tampa late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. It should be a moderate tropical storm when it does.

Remember, tropical systems are fickle and must be watched.

People planning trips to the beach this week will want to monitor the storm. Don't change any plans, just monitor the storm. Looks like Panama City, Destin and Gulf Shores will stay on the dry western side of the storm, so rain should not be a problem, although it might get a little breezy.

Heads up also. A tropical storm in the Gulf will probably produce rough surf all along the coast, and rip currents could be a problem.

Here is the partial text of Special Advisory Number One...


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

There is no video map discussion this morning because my wife and I and Dakota are taking a mini-vacation at Wind Creek State Park just southeast of Alexander City in Tallapoosa County. I have my cell phone card in the laptop, so I have some connectivity. But it is not enough connectivity to be able to send video. I was checking my speeds yesterday, and it would probably take me 8 or 10 hours to send a video file. So I'm afraid that you'll have to do with a word description this weekend.

Weather enthusiasts have turned their attention to the tropics where an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has begun to show signs of development. You can keep up with the latest information from the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. The center of the system this morning was located about 100 miles south of the western tip of Cuba. While the system had changed little overnight, satellite imagery was more impressive to me this morning than what I saw yesterday. The system could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. From what I see, it will be necessary to deploy a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the area in order to get the best information on what is happening with the system.

The future of the system is even more problematic. The various plots of the hurricane models along with the larger models still suggest a northward track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a fairly sharp turn across North Florida. One model, however, the NAM, has suggested on the latest run that the system may head toward Texas. That model is an outlier at the moment, but it underscores the need to keep up with the latest information. Weak systems in a relatively weak environment, and who knows where it might go.

James mentioned in his post yesterday that early season storms do not usually become major hurricanes, and I think that will be the case with this one. I was reviewing sea surface temperatures yesterday evening, and the water in the western Caribbean was running about 82 to 84 degrees, or about 2 degrees above normal. Temperatures in the eastern Gulf, though, were in the range of 80 to 82 degrees and very close to normal. This would certainly support some slow intensification but does not suggest a good reason for any rapid strengthening.

Current forecast track would bring rainfall in the range of 5 to 10 inches to the Florida peninsula, but would keep Alabama and Georgia on the drier side of the storm.

The GFS develops another trough over the eastern half of the country as we head into Monday. This certainly supports the movement of the future Alberto into the North Florida area. As the trough deepens, the tropical system will get caught up in the southwest flow east of the trough and head northeastward along the US east coast.

In the meantime, Alabama remains dry but we should have another cool down with a good northwesterly flow aloft. I don't think we'll see widespread lows back into the 50s, but it should mean below normal lows and highs with readings in the lower 60s and highs in the mid 80s. Okay by me since my ideal year is to have below normal temperatures in the summer and above normal temperatures in the winter.

By the end of next week, we should be back into a pattern with isolated afternoon and evening showers along with afternoon highs around 90 or so.

It was certainly enjoyable to sit out on the banks of Lake Martin last night. The lake helped to moderate temperatures a bit, so my wife and I guarded admirably by our dog, Dakota, enjoyed a wonderful sunset. I read and my wife, Jane, worked on a craft project while Dakota kept a vigilant eye on anything that moved - like nothing with a very still evening - but she was ready.

I'll try to have another map discussion post tomorrow morning - maybe sooner if I get in several naps - hey, what's camping for?

-Brian-

The National Hurricane Center is still concerned that a tropical depression or even a tropical storm could develop in the next 12 to 24 hours. They are concerned about the broad low pressure area located this morning about 100 miles south of the west end of Cuba.

It is moving northward and should enter the SE Gulf of Mexico later today. The NHC advises that a Tropical Storm Watch or Tropical Storm Warning may be needed for part of Western Cuba. All interests in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico should closely watch what could become Tropical Storm Alberto.

The NHC may send a reconnaissance plane into the area this afternoon.

It is still very early in the game (early in the first quarter) but the most favored track will be up through the East Gulf of Mexico into the NE Gulf. Possible landfall in the Big Bend area (Cedar Key, for example) Monday morning, then exiting into the Atlantic and passing east of Jacksonville-Savannah Tuesday morning.

That is based on the GFS model. The NAM brings it into the West Gulf of Mexico east or ESE of the south tip of Texas by Tuesday morning.

Watch this blog over the weekend for late developments.