Sure looks like we have seen the last of freezing temperatures until sometime much later this year in the fall. The average date of the last freeze in Birmingham is March 23, but we have seen freezing temperatures as late as April 23. But, looking at the overall upper air pattern, we see no significant chance of morning temperatures near freezing around here for the next five to ten days.

We can have some chilly mornings during the month of May; the coldest on record here during May is 36 degrees recorded on May 4, 1971. But, the big story in May is good summer preview we typically get, with several periods of hot and humid weather. While we have never seen triple digits in May, the mercury did reach 99 degrees in Birmingham on May 28. 1962, and May 29, 1898. We should also point out that May is still considered tornado season in Alabama, although activity tends to slow down somewhat. By the time we get to June, the stronger upper air winds are too far north for tornadoes here across the deep south.

And, as we get into June, we begin watching the tropical waters as hurricane season begins. While the peak of the season comes in August and September, we can see a few decent early season systems in the Gulf of Mexico in June and July.

The summer heat peaks in Alabama in late July and early August, when the average high is 91 and the average low is 70. Of course, triple digit heat is possible at times, and even with highs in the 90s the heat index can easily reach 100 degrees because of the high humidity across Alabama.

Looking ahead to the fall season (my favorite time of the year), the average date of the first freeze here is November 8, but the earliest freeze on record came on October 18, 1948. Fall sure seems like a long way away!

No more "High Risk"
No more "Moderate Risk"
No more even "Slight Risk" ( for most of Alabama)

However, a slight risk continues for the SW part ofAlabama where a Tornado Watch continues until 11 PM, CDT. That watch also affects SE Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi. In Alabama, only Mobile, Baldwin and Washington County included..

As the rain continues to spread into West Alabama, the weather system, overall, weakens.

Not much lightning for North and Central Alabama. The worst lightning continues over SE Mississippi spreading into SW Alabama.

Looks like the weather humans up this way will have "near normal" sleeping hours tonight.

This event has been mostly a hail/flash-flood one in Louisiana and Mississippi. One fatality on Maple Street in the NW part of Jackson late this afternoon when a tree or large limb fell on a man.

A few sample rainfall reports from areas west of Alabama:

4.07 inches in Greenwood, Miss.
2.63 at Greenville, Miss.
1.59 in Jackson
4.01 in Shreveport
3.12 at El Dorado, Ark.

At 5:25 this afternoon, during a period of very heavy rain in the Jackson area, a tree or large tree limb came down on Maple Street in NW Jackson.

It struck a man and killed him.

Showers and some thunderstorms beginning to move into West and NW Alabama early this evening. Not much to it.

The whole system is going downhill as it approaches Alabama where the atmosphere is a lot less nervous,

Not much lightning either. Most of the lightning--and the strongest thunderstorms are over South Mississippi.

A new Tormado Watch that goes until 11 o'clock tonight covers:
SE Louisiana
SE Mississippi
Extreme SW Alabama (only Baldwin, Mobile, Washington counties)

SPC still has a lot of Alabama under a "slight risk overnight" Earlier they had a part of Central Louisiana to West Mississippi under a rare HIGH RISK. They lowered that to "moderate risk" thisd afternoon.

SPC will have an updated DAY-1 outlook around 8 o'clock.

Even in the moderate to high risk areas to our west, tornado activity has been at a minimum. Haven't seen a report of a confirmed tornado touchdown in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Instead, a hail-producing and flash-flood event. Lots of reports of hail. A few sample reports:

.....Flash flooding in parts of the Jackson Metro area.
.....40% of streets flooded at Cleveland, Miss., NW part of state.
.....Large tree limbs down at Cary, Miss.
.....Hail one inch in diameter at Carollton, Miss.
.....3/4 inch diameter hail covered the ground at Vicksburg.
.....Tornado warning for several parrishes in SE La., and for Walthall County in South Miss.

Rember, those are just a few of the reports...been a lot of reports of hail all the way from East Texas into Mississippi.

Here is the latest thinking from National Weather Service/Birmingham:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WELL OFF TO THE WEST. WITH MUCH MORE STABLE
AIR OVER ALABAMA...AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURES WHICH SUPPORTED
STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS MID-MISSISSIPPI EARLIER TODAY...ARE ALSO
WEAKENING. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES...A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ARE JUST NOW EDGING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA FROM THE
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AREA.

ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO STRAY IN TO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS...BUT GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH.

AT THIS TIME...GUT LEVEL THINKING IS THAT ANY THREAT FOR THE AREA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONCERNS OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THREAT AND TRY
TO NAIL DOWN MORE PRECISE TIMING...AND MAGNITUDE...OF ANY THREAT...
HOPEFULLY BETWEEN 930 AND 10 PM.
&&

The Monday afternoon web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I am not convinced we will have a big problem with severe weather in Alabama tonight.

Having said that, the SPC maintains a high risk of severe storms over southwest Mississippi and parts of Louisiana. And, a moderate risk to the Alabama/Mississippi line. And, a slight risk over much of Alabama.

BUT...

It is hard to get worked up about a severe weather threat with a surface dewpoint of only 49 at Montgomery! The 60 degree dewpoint line runs from about Greenville, MS to Meridian to Atmore. There is no surface based instability here, and it sure looks like we won't get much at all during the night. Even in Mississippi CAPE values are pretty low.

This has been the problem with the severe weather threats this season, the poor instability values. We have had a very hard time getting maritime tropical air in here.

The strongest parameter in our opinion is the diffluence at 300 mb... but many other parameters are just not in place for a big event.

A line of storms should pass through the state from about 9:00 p.m. through 6:00 a.m. The WRF has the storms southeast of Birmingham at 6:00 a.m., so the bulk of the day tomorrow could very well be rain-free. A few instability showers might show up tomorrow afternoon over the Tennessee Valley as colder air aloft moves in from the west.

We will mention scattered showers and storms on Wednesday due to the upper low, and some small hail might be involved.

We still expect great weather by Friday and the weekend with ample sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.

We will keep an eye to the sky and J.B. will be posting updates here through the evening...

As J.B. mentioned in his post below, SPC now has a rare high risk in place over parts of Mississippi and Louisiana:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

A moderate risk is in place to the Columbus, MS area, and much of Alabama is in a slight risk for late tonight. And I do mean late... the stronger storms probably won't move in here until after midnight

I will make a complete post when the afternoon video update is loaded in a bit... but not much has changed in my thinking, despite the high risk to the west. Like most events this spring, we are having a hard time getting real high quality unstable air in here.... true maritime tropical air. So, I do expect a threat of strong straight line winds as the storms cross the Alabama border initially, but I also expect those storms to weaken as they move into the more stable air over central and east Alabama.

But, when it comes to thunderstorms...

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.

I am making this post at the tail end of a meeting... will be swinging by Inglenook Elementary at 1:00, and then on to ABC 33/40. Will try to have everything ready by 3:00.

J.B.'s afternoon package will be posted over on the seven day discussion and forecast page by 2:30, and he will be manning the blog for whatever happens tonight.

Seems like this has been a spring with lots of late night/early morning severe weather threats that are somewhat marginal. Doesn't exactly help those of us trying to get a few hours of sleep every now and then!

The Storm Prediction center (SPC) has now posted a rare HIGH RISK of severe weather from Central Louisiana into parts of West Central Mississippi. This includes the possibility of some strong long-lived tornadoes.

Around the "High Risk" area is a "Moderate Risk" that extends eastward to cover most of the rest of Mississippi including the Columbus, Starkville and Meridian areas. A "Slight Risk" extends east to about the Alabama-Georgia border.

The best chance of a significant outbreak, including some strong long-track tornadoes is from Central Louisiana into West Central Mississippi mainly this afternoon. Overnight, the main threat in Alabama could be damaging winds. But we will watch that.

The SPC has also issued a Tornado Watch that extends from Extreme SE Texas northeastward across Central and NE Louisiana into West Central Mississippi until 7 o'clock this evening. This is one of those fairly rare "PDS" watches--meaning a "Particularly Dangerous Situation."

Mississippi has really been under the gun lately.

The Monday morning web video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

SPC has placed parts of Ark-La-Miss region under a moderate risk of severe storms today, including places like Jackson, Vicksburg, Monroe, and Eldorado. A slight risk surrounds the moderate risk, as far east as I-65.

Here is the deal...

A strong, negative tilt upper trough over the plains states will generate thunderstorms during the day today well to the west, and over that moderate risk there could be a few significant tornadoes as all of the parameters will fall into place. By tonight, storms should evolve into a long squall line as the main threat shifts to damaging straight line winds. The storms should be near the Alabama/Mississippi border sometime between midnight and 3:00 a.m.

The storms will sweep through Alabama from about 2:00 a.m. until 11:00 a.m., but the instability, helicity, and wind fields are all rather marginal. The greatest chance of damaging winds will come over the western third of the state, with the threat diminishing over the eastern counties with a drier and more stable airmass in place.

Rain totals of one-half to one inch seem likely, not enough to trigger any flash flooding.

We will continue to mention the chance of isolated showers or storms on Wednesday and Thursday as the upper low passes to the north of us, but widespread rain isn't likely.

The weekend ahead looks dry and pleasant. Two nice weekends in a row... not bad!

THE LONG RANGE: Sure looks like the ole Bermuda ridge will show up over the latter half of the month, which could serve to keep the big storm systems west and north of Alabama. This could lead to a generally drier and warmer pattern for us...

Headed out to Inglenook Elementary today in Birmingham for a meteorology program... be back in the office later today for the afternoon update.