On the road…

Yesterday was a beautiful day for a drive into deep East Alabama to speak to the fourth graders at Kitty Stone Elementary School in Jacksonville. From my place in northern Shelby County, it east on county highway 41 to the community of Dunnavant, and then south on Alabama 25, which takes you over the top of Coosa Mountain and offers a spectacular view of the Coosa Valley.

From the mountain peak, it was down into the valley and into the community of Vandiver, where it was left onto county highway 55, a pretty drive which takes you into St. Clair County, and through the Wolf Creek community. That road dead ends at Cogswell Avenue in Pell City. After a couple of turns, I was on U.S. 231 heading north our of Pell City. Then, at Wattsville it was left onto Alabama 144, which takes you right past National Cement and into downtown Ragland.

Signs in Ragland remind you the community is the home of Rudy York, a Major League Baseball first baseman who played for the Detroit Tigers (1934, 1937-45), Boston Red Sox (1946-47), Chicago White Sox (1947) and Philadelphia Athletics (194.

Once past Ragland, you drive right on top of the Neely Henry Dam on the Coosa River, and into Calhoun County and the community of Ohatchee. We did a Storm Alert show in Ohatchee a couple of years ago and the people were simply great. Alabama 144 winds up at Alexandria, where you turn left onto U.S. 431, and then right onto Alabama 204, the “Rudy Abbott” Highway, in honor of the former Jacksonville State baseball coach. Highway 204 leads you into the heart of Jacksonville and the campus of Jacksonville State. The kids at Kitty Stone Elementary were fun and great listeners. I have had the honor of speaking to the 4th grade at that school in May for many years. It is a great tradition.

The drive back didn't feature the "roads less traveled"; time was a factor and I came back through Gadsden and down I-59. Interstates are nice when you need them!

NOUS44 KBMX 111921
PNSBMX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
215 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006

...F1 TORNADO IN MARENGO COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE
LOCATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME
IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT AN F1 TORNADO OCCURRED IN MARENGO COUNTY
FROM NEAR JEFFERSON STATION TO NEAR LINDEN ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 28.
THE TORNADO PATH WAS 1.4 MILES LONG AND WAS 150 YARDS WIDE. THIS
TORNADO OCCURRED AROUND 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY MAY 10TH AND DOWNED
NUMEROUS TREES ALONG ITS PATH. TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 335 WAS IN EFFECT
FROM 145 PM THROUGH 9 PM CDT. A TORNADO WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FOR
MARENGO COUNTY FROM 223 PM THROUGH 3 PM AND RE-ISSUED AT 255 PM
THROUGH 330 PM.


$$
KSL

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

SKYCAM NETWORK UPDATE: Our new SKYCAM network camera in Demopolis is on the web:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamsdemopolis.html

What a beautiful view of the Tombigbee River... the camera is on the roof of the Demopolis Civic Center. This will give a great view into Sumter County to the west. Note the river is really muddy and very high due to the rain of the past couple of days. More cameras will be coming online in the next few weeks. Stay tuned!

WINTER IN MAY: Check out this observation...

LAND O LAKES LGT SNOW 32 32 100 N25G35 29.65F WCI 19

That is Land O' Lakes, Wisconsin. At mid-afternoon as I write this update they have 32 degrees, a wind chill of 19, and light snow falling!

THE ALABAMA STORY: A cool night is ahead; most spots should reach the 40s by daybreak tomorrow with a clear sky. The GFS MOS has 47 degrees for Birmingham, and that sounds about right to me. Tomorrow should be a bright sunny day with highs in the low 70s... amazingly pleasant for mid-May.

THE WEEKEND: Ahead of a new surge of cool air, a few showers will likely develop here Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The latest model data is really suggesting the best chance of a shower will come Saturday night. No severe weather; probably very few thunderstorms. Mainly light rain showers, and rain totals should be under a quarter of an inch for most places.

Temperatures Saturday afternoon should reach the mid to upper 70s, but Sunday should be much cooler, with highs only in the 60s. By Sunday the best chance of showers will be down over the southern half of the state.

NEXT WEEK: A very strong upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. next week, keeping temperatures here below normal. Lobes rotating through the trough will bring a few cloudy periods on Monday and Tuesday, and maybe some scattered light rain. The best chance of that light rain seems to be north of Birmingham, especially across the Tennessee Valley. Highs will remain in the 60s.

Late in the week, showers will increase by Thursday night and Friday with another front approaching. The 12Z run of the GFS is hinting that that rain could linger into the day on Saturday (May 20). But remember, there is very little skill in any kind of specific forecast beyond seven days.

The 12z GFS shows the upper trough over the eastern U.S. finally lifting out by May 25-27, with warmer temperatures by then.

Sure enjoyed the drive over to Jacksonville today... I shared the science of meteorology with the fouth grade... look for them on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00! I will probably write about the trip here on the blog tonight.

The next map discussion video will be posted bright and early tomorrow morning, by 7:00 a.m. And, don't forget all of our video and audio products are now available on iTunes!

Time of lighten up a bit after a long pressure-packed Wednesday. I don't get uptight during weather events like yesterday but I do get tired after going at it almost 15 hours. But I was not the only one in our weather group that had long sleepless hours. Goes with the occupation...

* 10 hours is how much sleep I got last night in two parts. That is too much. I don't know how to handle 10 hours of sleep. My planned 30-minute power nap in my (er...Molly's) recliner early in the evening turned into a 4-hour passing out. Little Miss Molly was curled up sound asleep on the foot-rest against my feet the entire time.

* 6 more hours of sleep in the big bed between 11 pm and 5 am. So, I feel great today, although feeling a little guilty.

* 5 inches is the heaviest rainfall amount I found in the last 24 hours in Alabama. It occurred at the R.F. Henry Lock and Dam on the Alabama River. Many other locations received over two inches. (See the list at the end of this report)

* 0 is how many times I played with Little Miss Molly yesterday. When she got up this mornig, I was headed from the kitchen back to my office with cup of coffee no. 3 and a snack. She grabbed one of her new balls that we just bought for her and blocked my path. She gave me the longest, cold stare I have ever seen from her. A wave of guilt swept over me, so I put down the coffee and snack and had a quick game with her. Never seen her so excited. I believe that little girl keeps a time-card on me with a list of how many times I play.

* 112 was the USA high in Laredo yesterday. South Texas is still dry.

* 103 was the high in Corpus Christi. Drought and heat are first cousins. They go hand-in-hand. Corpus has only received 1.72 inches of rain this year. The normal by now is well over 8 inches.

* 17 was the lowest in the Lower 48 this morning at Big Piney, in Western Wyoming.

* 3 inches is the average amount of snow expected tonight through Friday near the shore of Lake Superior in Upper Michigan. The high today will only be about 38 with winds gusting as high as 50 mph at times.

* 100 below zero is the lowest temperature I could find in the whole wide world today. At Vostok, Antarctica. Winter is still over a month away.

* 79 was the water temperature at a floating data buoy in the Gulf of Mexico some 200 land miles south of the Louisiana Coast this morning. Have an idea the Gulf of Mexico is going to be watched more closely than anytime in history this summer. A good part of the GOM has water temperatures 80 and slightly above already.

Here is a more complete list of Alabama rainfall in the last 24 hours. Remember, the total for the last two days is a lot higher in some areas:

5.00 inches at R.F. Henry Lock & Dam on the Alabama River
0.98 at Birmingham Airport
1.05 at Anniston Airport
1.66 at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
0.58 at Cullman Airport (Vinemont)
0.75 at Huntsville Airport
0.58 at Mobile (they still have a big deficit for the year)
2.01 atMontgomery
1.42 at Tuscaloosa Airport
1.01 in Pinson
2.30 in Selma
1.40 in Ashland
1.70 in Alexander City
1.44 at Smith Dam
1.15 at Ashville
1.76 in North Auburn
1.22 at Logan Martin Dam
1.44 in Blountsville
1.72 at Bankhead Lock and Dam
1.73 at Blount Springs
1.35 at Childersburg
1.56 at Clanton
1.77 at Lay Dam
0.92 at Collisville
1.21 at Cordova
1.56 at Carbon Hill
2.22 at Yates Dam
1.72 at Gaylesville
1.59 at Horseshoe Bend
2.66 at Haleyville (several streets closed/flash-flooding)
1.59 at Jasper
1.38 in Oneonta
1.65 at Sayre
1.32 at Sylacauga
1.71 at Holt (East edge of Tuscaloosa)
2.37 at Martin Dam
2.47 at Mitchell Dam
2.66 at Jordan Dam
2.69 at Atmore
2.83 on Dauphin Island
3.31 in Thomasville
2.40 at Livingston
2.30 in Selma
2.12 at Oliver Dam (Tuscaloosa)

If you find any TYPOS, please overlook--too much sleep...but life goes on...

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Don't forget you can watch that video, along with all of the video and audio products we produce, on your video iPod. Go to iTunes and search ABC 33/40 and you can subscribe from there.

Let me say up front it looks like temperatures here will be below normal for the next two weeks as a blocking pattern develops over North America. That is like a traffic jam, meaning weather features don't move much, and this block features an anomalous upper trough over the eastern half of the nation.

TODAY/TOMORROW: We expect a partly sunny sky today, with a brisk northwest wind ushering in much cooler and drier air. By tomorrow morning, we should be in the upper 40s over the northern half of the state. Tomorrow will be a sunny and pleasant day.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Another cold front should bring showers to the state Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Probably nothing too heavy, and nothing severe. By Sunday, the 00Z GFS suggests the best chance of showers will shift down into South Alabama.

Sunday will be a cool day with highs only in the 60s. The 12Z run of the GFS yesterday was hinting at a chance of upper 30s over the colder valleys of North Alabama by early Monday morning, which is record territory for this time of the year. The 00Z GFS is not as cold, and is closer to being correct in our opinion. But, still we should be down in the 40s.

NEXT WEEK: A deep upper low north of Alabama just sits and spins all week. Lobes rotating around this will mean cloudy periods, and maybe a little scattered light rain on Monday and Tuesday for the northern third of the state. Highs will stay in the cool 60s.

Another front is expected to bring a chance of rain to the state by Thursday (one week from today).

LONG RANGE: The GFS keeps the deep upper trough over the eastern half of the nation all the way through May 26, which means temperatures should remain below normal, and occasional rain opportunities. But, severe weather in this setup is unlikely. We would normally be in the low 80s in mid to late May, sure looks like we will have a hard time getting there for quite a while if models are correct.

Yet another busy today... I will be headed over to Kitty Stone Elementary School in Jacksonville for a weather program for the 4th graders. I have been doing weather programs for the fourth grade over there in May for many years, when I get there that is just another sign the school year is almost over and the summer is closer. I should be back in the office in time to get the afternoon video out by 3:30.

Be sure and scroll down and read the post called "TV Market Madness"... this helps explain why we don't promise long form tornado coverage for some of the counties on the far edge of our coverage area, and what you can do to help get your county in the Birmingham market!

Heading to bed ladies and gentlemen...

Fortunately...another moderate risk non-event. We continue to be very fortunate here in Alabama overall in terms of spring severe weather.

JB and James will be up with the chickens to update you tomorrow morning.

But for now, we can all go to sleep and rest easy overnight.

Bill

Our cold front is approaching the northwest corner of Alabama at 11 p.m.

The front is squeezing out a very narrow line of showers that is moving east at about 40 mph. No lightning is currently being indicated with the line.

Winds will be brisk out of the northwest averaging some 10-20 mph for several hours after the front passes during the overnight.

Moderate rain covers much of South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Stronger storms continue to move eastward out of extreme South Mississippi into Southwest Alabama.

However, all tornado watches have expired for Alabama and Mississippi.

Currently, there are no tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings in effect in Alabama or Mississippi.

There are several severe thunderstorm warning west of Tallahassee in the Florida Panhandle.

A tornado watch is in effect for much of Ohio, but no warnings are curretnly in effect there.