Arlene is only a depression late tonight as she moves north through West Alabama.
At 10 pm, the center, rather broad, was about 75 miles south of Tuscaloosa and moving north at 17 mph. By daybreak, the center will be way up in NW Alabama and by nightfall Sunday near Evansville, Indiana!
So, for Alabama, this means the weather will settle down.
There is still the chance for a couple inches of additional rain for the rest of tonight and Sunday mainly west of Interstate 65. Late tonight, the NWS pulled back the Flash Flood Watch to only those counties along and west of I-65. The watch expires at 7 am Sunday.
West Alabama locations such as Linden, Aliceville to Jasper have received 3 to 4 inches of rain in the last two days so any additional rain for the remainder of tonight will be runoff.
In the big picture, Alabama fared very well in her encounter with Arlene.
Arlene Will Soon Be History
June 11, 2005, 10:49 pm
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
New Hurricane Hunter Planes
June 11, 2005, 9:44 pm
Ten years ago there was a move afoot to eliminate Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flights in the Atlantic. They had already been eliminated several years before in the eastern Pacific. There was a howl of concern from forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and rightfully so. Proponents of cutting out the flights pointed to recent advancements in satellite systems that provide much more accurate data on storm intensity, but the NHC knew recon was a key tool.
Nearly every year, forecasters can point to several cases when the reconnaissance flights are invaluable in forecasting and saving lives. Just last year, Hurricane Charley intensified rapidly to a Category Four storm in a short time just before landfall. The report from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft let forecasters know the storm had become much more dangerous and they were able to pass this information on to the public, the media and emergency management. The report doubtlessly saved some lives.
I have to applaud Congress in this case. Instead of having to fight to keep the program in place, the Air Force Reserve unit is actually receiving new planes. The older C130-H planes are older than many of the 125 crew members that fly in them. A total of ten new planes will arrive during the hurricane season this year. The new planes can stay in the air longer and fly further. They also feature new radar technology that will allow for more accurate measurement of surface winds from the planes.
Nearly every year, forecasters can point to several cases when the reconnaissance flights are invaluable in forecasting and saving lives. Just last year, Hurricane Charley intensified rapidly to a Category Four storm in a short time just before landfall. The report from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft let forecasters know the storm had become much more dangerous and they were able to pass this information on to the public, the media and emergency management. The report doubtlessly saved some lives.
I have to applaud Congress in this case. Instead of having to fight to keep the program in place, the Air Force Reserve unit is actually receiving new planes. The older C130-H planes are older than many of the 125 crew members that fly in them. A total of ten new planes will arrive during the hurricane season this year. The new planes can stay in the air longer and fly further. They also feature new radar technology that will allow for more accurate measurement of surface winds from the planes.
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
Arlene Rainfall
June 11, 2005, 8:35 pm
Here are some selected rainfall amounts as a result of Miss Arlene. Some of the heavier rain today has been over the West Central and SW counties where some areas received between 2 and 3 inches.
Actual amounts since 6 o'clock this morning:
0.93 at Bankhead Dam
0.41 at Ashland
0.93 at Gaylesville (Cherokee County)
0.36 in Oneonta
0.78 at Holt Dam (east edge of Tuscaloosa
For the last 24 hours
0.45 at Anniston Airport
0.43 in Auburn
0.37 at Birmingham Airport
0.38 at Shelby County Airport
1.48 in Dothan
2.34 in Evergreen
4.52 at Mobile Airport
0.91 at Montgomery's Dannelly Field
0.77 in Muscle Shoals
0.91 in Troy
0.83 at Tuscaloosa Airport
0.20 in Pinson
0.69 at Crossville
0.23 at Cullman Airport (Vinemont)
0.27 in Huntsville
0.53 at Black Creek (Etowah County
0.63 at Nauvoo
0.44 in Hueytown
Actual amounts since 6 o'clock this morning:
0.93 at Bankhead Dam
0.41 at Ashland
0.93 at Gaylesville (Cherokee County)
0.36 in Oneonta
0.78 at Holt Dam (east edge of Tuscaloosa
For the last 24 hours
0.45 at Anniston Airport
0.43 in Auburn
0.37 at Birmingham Airport
0.38 at Shelby County Airport
1.48 in Dothan
2.34 in Evergreen
4.52 at Mobile Airport
0.91 at Montgomery's Dannelly Field
0.77 in Muscle Shoals
0.91 in Troy
0.83 at Tuscaloosa Airport
0.20 in Pinson
0.69 at Crossville
0.23 at Cullman Airport (Vinemont)
0.27 in Huntsville
0.53 at Black Creek (Etowah County
0.63 at Nauvoo
0.44 in Hueytown
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
ARLENE GOING DOWNHILL
June 11, 2005, 7:21 pm
Well, Arlene did not remain a tropical storm very long after making landfall at midafternoon near Pensacola.
In the 7:00 o'clock advisory tonight, the National Hurricane Center downgraded her to a Tropical Depression over SW Alabama.
BASIC FACTS:
Location...the Depression was centered near latitude 31.4N, longitude 87.6W which placed it near Barlow Bend, Alabama, which is about 15 miles east of Jackson, Alabama.
Movement...She was moving north at 15. This motion is expected to continue for 12-24 hour6s with a gradual turn to the NNE on Sunday.
Maximum Winds...The sustained winds are down to 35 mph with some higher gusts, mainly north and NE of the center. She should contiue to weaken in the next 24 hours.
Minimum Pressure...The pressure is rising, now 29.35 inches, or 994 mbs.
OTHER FACTS:
Arlene is still expected to produce rainfall of 2-4 inches, primarily to the north and just to the west of the storm track. So, that means places like Camden, Greensboro, Tuscaloosa, Fayette and Hamilton will get more rainfall than places like Birmingham eastward.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH:
The National Weather Service, Birmingham, continues a FLASH FLOOD WATCH until midday Sunday for numerous counties in Central and North Alabama. The NWS, Huntsville also has a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for extreme North Alabama including the Tennessee Valley.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST:
The center should continue northward from its present position near Barlow Bend, moving north to about Moundville soon after midnight, then northward through Tuscaloosa, Fayette and Moulton to near Nashville by midday tomorrow.
Later this evening, we will post a round up of rainfall amounts so far in the last 24 hours.
In the 7:00 o'clock advisory tonight, the National Hurricane Center downgraded her to a Tropical Depression over SW Alabama.
BASIC FACTS:
Location...the Depression was centered near latitude 31.4N, longitude 87.6W which placed it near Barlow Bend, Alabama, which is about 15 miles east of Jackson, Alabama.
Movement...She was moving north at 15. This motion is expected to continue for 12-24 hour6s with a gradual turn to the NNE on Sunday.
Maximum Winds...The sustained winds are down to 35 mph with some higher gusts, mainly north and NE of the center. She should contiue to weaken in the next 24 hours.
Minimum Pressure...The pressure is rising, now 29.35 inches, or 994 mbs.
OTHER FACTS:
Arlene is still expected to produce rainfall of 2-4 inches, primarily to the north and just to the west of the storm track. So, that means places like Camden, Greensboro, Tuscaloosa, Fayette and Hamilton will get more rainfall than places like Birmingham eastward.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH:
The National Weather Service, Birmingham, continues a FLASH FLOOD WATCH until midday Sunday for numerous counties in Central and North Alabama. The NWS, Huntsville also has a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for extreme North Alabama including the Tennessee Valley.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST:
The center should continue northward from its present position near Barlow Bend, moving north to about Moundville soon after midnight, then northward through Tuscaloosa, Fayette and Moulton to near Nashville by midday tomorrow.
Later this evening, we will post a round up of rainfall amounts so far in the last 24 hours.
by J.B. Elliott
in Weather History
ARLENE DOWNGRADED!
June 11, 2005, 7:12 pm
Good news on the tropical weather front. Tropical Storm Arlene was downgraded to a depression at 7:00 p.m. The center was near Barlow Bend, Alabama about 15 miles east of Jackson, Alabama.
Details in a few minutes.
Details in a few minutes.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
6 PM ESTIMATED ARLENE POSITION
June 11, 2005, 6:16 pm
Over the south edge of Monroe County about 10 miles south of Monroeville.
Moving north.
Some of the heavier rain at 6 o'clock was over North Monroe and South Wilcox County.
A rainfall report: Since midnight, only 0.51 at Greystone Cove in North Shelby County.
Moving north.
Some of the heavier rain at 6 o'clock was over North Monroe and South Wilcox County.
A rainfall report: Since midnight, only 0.51 at Greystone Cove in North Shelby County.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Coast Calming Down
June 11, 2005, 5:38 pm
It's still breezy, it's still cloudy, and it's still wet with scattered showers, but the weather is improving drastically from what we had here earlier! No, the weather was never extreme when compared with last Fall's Hurricane Ivan, but Arlene as a strong tropical storm packed enough of a punch to slow things down in Gulf Shores.
The highest wind speed here got to between 40 and 50 miles per hour, and while that is considerably less than the 70 MPH winds that the National Hurricane Center estimated before landfall, you have to keep in mind that over the open water, the wind does get much stronger than over land. In Gulf Shores, we were in the western "eye wall" if you can call it that, so our winds stayed from the east to northeast through landfall. Since the frictional effects of the land (the technical term is "drag" ) on the wind is about 30%, NHC may not have been too far off with the estimate (30% of 70 is 21, subtract 21 from 70 and that gives you a wind of 49 MPH which is tropical storm strength).
Right now, winds are still up to around 20 MPH at times, and the seas are still around 4-8 feet. It's not the best Saturday night I've ever seen on the Gulf Coast, but given the lack of significant storm-related problems, you can bet coastal residents are happy to see it this way!
We'll have a live update coming up on ABC 33/40 News at 6:00!
The highest wind speed here got to between 40 and 50 miles per hour, and while that is considerably less than the 70 MPH winds that the National Hurricane Center estimated before landfall, you have to keep in mind that over the open water, the wind does get much stronger than over land. In Gulf Shores, we were in the western "eye wall" if you can call it that, so our winds stayed from the east to northeast through landfall. Since the frictional effects of the land (the technical term is "drag" ) on the wind is about 30%, NHC may not have been too far off with the estimate (30% of 70 is 21, subtract 21 from 70 and that gives you a wind of 49 MPH which is tropical storm strength).
Right now, winds are still up to around 20 MPH at times, and the seas are still around 4-8 feet. It's not the best Saturday night I've ever seen on the Gulf Coast, but given the lack of significant storm-related problems, you can bet coastal residents are happy to see it this way!
We'll have a live update coming up on ABC 33/40 News at 6:00!
5 PM POSITION ESTIMATE
June 11, 2005, 5:14 pm
At 5 pm, Arlene appears to be centered over the extreme west edge of Alabama's Escambia County near the Baldwin County line. This is near or just west of Atmore.
NOTE: This is not an official estimate from the NHC. It is our own estimate. We will try to give you hourly position reports tonight.
Scan down for a lot of extra information that is still valid.
NOTE: This is not an official estimate from the NHC. It is our own estimate. We will try to give you hourly position reports tonight.
Scan down for a lot of extra information that is still valid.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Arlene 4 PM Advisory Notes
June 11, 2005, 4:18 pm
Just a few notes to bring you up to speed on Arlene based on the 4 pm official advisory from the National Hurricane Center: Basic facts:
LOCATION: The center was inland near latitude 30.7N and longitude 87.4W or about 20 miles north of Pensacola.
STRENGTH: Maximum sustained winds now down to near 50 mph mainly on the SE side of the center and over water.
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 29.26 inches or 991 millibars.
COASTAL WARNINGS: Only warning that remains is a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama Coast east to Panama City. This, of course, includes all of the AlabamaCoast. But no more Hurricane Watches or Warnings. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet with large and dangerous battering waves will continue for a while east of where the center made landfall. Should gradually diminish for the next several hours.
RAINFALL: National Hurricane Center now estimates rainfall will total 2 to 4 inches mainly north and NW of the storm track. Isolated amounts to 6 inches.
SPINOFF TORNADOES: The Storm Prediction Center decided not to extend a Tornado Watch northward into Central Alabama. A watch was in effect for extreme South Alabama today.
The National Weather Service, Birmingham is dropping the "Inland Tropical Storm Warning and replacing it with a "Wind Advisory.
BOTTOM LINE: Unless serious flooding occurrs or a spinoff tornado forms, overall, Alabama has come through Arlene in good shape. Too early to cheer, however.
Scan down for a lot of extra information...
LOCATION: The center was inland near latitude 30.7N and longitude 87.4W or about 20 miles north of Pensacola.
STRENGTH: Maximum sustained winds now down to near 50 mph mainly on the SE side of the center and over water.
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 29.26 inches or 991 millibars.
COASTAL WARNINGS: Only warning that remains is a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama Coast east to Panama City. This, of course, includes all of the AlabamaCoast. But no more Hurricane Watches or Warnings. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet with large and dangerous battering waves will continue for a while east of where the center made landfall. Should gradually diminish for the next several hours.
RAINFALL: National Hurricane Center now estimates rainfall will total 2 to 4 inches mainly north and NW of the storm track. Isolated amounts to 6 inches.
SPINOFF TORNADOES: The Storm Prediction Center decided not to extend a Tornado Watch northward into Central Alabama. A watch was in effect for extreme South Alabama today.
The National Weather Service, Birmingham is dropping the "Inland Tropical Storm Warning and replacing it with a "Wind Advisory.
BOTTOM LINE: Unless serious flooding occurrs or a spinoff tornado forms, overall, Alabama has come through Arlene in good shape. Too early to cheer, however.
Scan down for a lot of extra information...
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Wind Gust Observations to 3 pm
June 11, 2005, 3:58 pm
Was just looking over the observations from NW Florida, so thought I'd list the highest gust at the hourly reporting stations across that area and south Alabama.
Dothan 33 mph
Valparaiso 49 mph
Destin 45 mph
Panama City 32 mph
Tyndall AFB 35 mph
Crestview 32 mph
Marianna 35 mph
Evergreen 28 mph
Ozark 30 mph
Mobile 28 mph
Mobile Downtown 31 mph
Biloxi 29 mph
Pensacola Regional 43 mph
Montgomery 32 mph
Birmingham 23 mph
Tuscaloosa 25 mph
Those are just from the observations. Peak gusts may be higher than the hourly observations.
-Brian-
Dothan 33 mph
Valparaiso 49 mph
Destin 45 mph
Panama City 32 mph
Tyndall AFB 35 mph
Crestview 32 mph
Marianna 35 mph
Evergreen 28 mph
Ozark 30 mph
Mobile 28 mph
Mobile Downtown 31 mph
Biloxi 29 mph
Pensacola Regional 43 mph
Montgomery 32 mph
Birmingham 23 mph
Tuscaloosa 25 mph
Those are just from the observations. Peak gusts may be higher than the hourly observations.
-Brian-
by Brian Peters
in General Thoughts