A long, slow moving cold front is near the Tennessee/Kentucky border late this evening.

Scattered showers and storms have formed ahead of the front over Tennessee and are moving south toward North Alabama. A couple of them looking fairly strong on radar, but no warnings were in effect as of this writing. Eastern Kentucky is under a severe thunderstorm watch.

The storms will slowly sink down into North Alabama overnight. I think they will hold together through the overnight hours, but they should not pose much of a problem. I would not be surprised to see a warning or two, but the chance looks remote.

As the front sinks down into Alabama Monday morning, it will be accompanied by a few storms up until frontal passage. Again, a couple of them could be strong again, but significant severe weather is not expected.

Now on to Alberto...

At 10 p.m., the little storm that could is centered over the South Central Gulf of Mexico about 355 SSW of Apalachicola Florida. It is turning to the NNE as expected and is expected to make the full turn to the northeast on Monday. It should reach the Florida Big Bend area north of Tampa early on Tuesday morning.

Tropical storm watches are currently in effect and will be upgraded to warnings in the morning.

The storm has top winds of 45 mph and the reconnaissance plane reported a central pressure of 1004 mb. Alberto is very disorganized, being basically ripped apart by strong southwesterly winds aloft. Storms are not able to form around the center.

The shear is now expected to weaken somewhat later on Monday and modest intensification may occur. Alberto should make landfall as a tropical storm with winds in the 50-60 mph category.

There should be little impact from Alberto west of Apalachicola. A few clouds will be evident along the coast as far west as Pensacola in association with the storm circulation. A few showers and storms may encroach as far west as Panama City. A fresh breeze will pickup out of the northeast and north as the storm slides to the south and southeast of the Panhandle. There could be an increase in rip currents, but not as much as if the storm were west of the area.

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee.

The warnings don't indicate that the storm is strengthening. In fact, it may be weakening. It is just that the strongest winds are so far removed from the center that they may affect the affect the coast well before the center approaches.

The center is 400 miles SSW of Apalachicola FL. Movement is N at 7 mph.

Top winds are 45 mph. No significant strengthening is expected.

The question now becomes whether Alberto will hold together long enough to make landfall. The official forecast is for landfall to occur Tuesday afternoon in the Florida Big Bend area.

The leading edge of the large rain sheild from Alberti extends over Southwest and South Florida this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center warns that 5-10 inches of rainfall could occur over the Florida Peninsula and Keys with the storm.

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Hey, weather enthusiasts, don't expect much. I tried a little experiment and it worked reasonably well. Just don't expect the smoothest video or audio. Without a video camera, I managed to record the audio for the map discussion though it had some crackles in it. Need to upgrade my laptop and get a bit more horsepower.

Anyway, coming to you from the shores of Lake Martin and Wind Creek State Park. Wonderful place and we have our travel trailer parked right on the shore of a small inlet - great scene right out the window. Jane, my wife, and Dakota are sitting in the shade enjoying a beautiful view over the inlet out into the lake. Only thing that could make it better would be to knock about 15 degrees off the temperature - not likely in June.

Alberto has formed but he is struggling. The environment is strongly sheared, so the thunderstorms are well northeast, east, and southeast of the center which is readily visible on the latest satellite image. I would not expect to see Alberto gain much strength. He is going to be a nuisance to the Florida peninsula with lots of rain headed their way. Unfortunately for Alabama and Georgia, we'll be on the dry side of the storm, so I would not expect to see much more influence from Alberto than a little breeziness. Of course, that could change IF the track of the storm changed, but I think the current models have a pretty good handle on it. I do remember, though, Elena, which connected and then disconnected from a trough moving across the east central United States back in 1985. I don't expect that to happen with Alberto, however, it is not completely out of the question. So the bottom line of advice, stay tuned to the latest in case something changes.

Other than that, another upper trough develops over the eastern third of the nation on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing Alabama back under northwesterly flow. We should see temperatures fall back below normal for a day or so - right now Wednesday looks the coolest - before another warm-up with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s by City Stages weekend.

I appreciate your understanding on the video/audio quality of today's map discussion. I guess a scratchy, limited video is better than none - or maybe not. I had fun giving it a stab. Now if I can just get some signal when we head up to Mt. Cheaha.

-Brian-

Tropical depression upgraded to Tropical Storm Alberto on 10 a.m. advisory based on Air Force reconnaisance...

Top winds 45 mph...

Still very disorganized...shear expected to increase further...so significant intensifcation is not expected.

Located 445 miles SSW of Apalachicola...moving NW 9.

Tropical storm watches will be issued later today for the coast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico...but future track is still uncertain. A weak, highly sheared system may not respond to the approaching trough, which could strand a weakening Alberto over the Gulf.

No change in expected impacts to Alabama/Northwest Florida coasts...just a little bit of a breeze and the increase threat of rip currents. A few clouds from the circulation were rotating over the FLorida Panhandle this morning. A few showers could affect eastern sections of the Panhandle later today through tomorrow.

Tropical depression number one is over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

It is the textbook example of a sheared tropical system. The center is clearly exposed out from under the main convection. The thunderstorms that would have to be located around the center are being blown off to the northeast by strong southwesterly winds.

In this situation, the depression will have a significant struggle to intensify. This is good news. It also has an impact on where the depression might go.

Convection is trying to fire around the northern side of the well-defined circulation center this morning. It will remain to be seen if this convection can hold together against the strong shear.

The official forecast still calls for a landfall in the Florida Big Bend area tomorrow evening as a tropical storm. However, we may end up with a weakening exposed circulatoin meandering around the Gulf for a day or two. Only time will tell.

Air Force Reconnaissance is enroute to the depression as I write this.

More throughout the day.