The Tampa area is one of the greatest weather disasters waiting to happen in the United States according to preparedness officials. The area has not suffered a direct hit by a hurricane since 1944. In the sixty two years since that hurricane, millions of people have moved into the area. On this date two years ago, nearly two million residents were evacuating West Florida in advance of Hurricane Charley.

I did some research on past hurricanes that have affected the Tampa Bay area.

1985 - Elena: Elena drifted east to within 80 miles of Tampa before turning back to the west. Even though the storm never came closer than 80 miles from the coast, it pushed a storm surge into Tampa Bay that rose to seven feet. Significant flooding resulted around the bay area.

1960 - Donna: The last major hurricane to affect the West Coast of Florida directly. Donna passed through the Florida Keys and then curved sharply around to strike the Fort Myers area. At the time of landfall in the Keys, the storm had a central pressure of 930mb and top winds of 140 mph. Donna did not strike the Tampa area directly.

1944 - October Hurricane: This storm made landfall just south of Sarasota on October 19, 1944. It passed up the east side of Tampa Bay. A pressure of 967 millibars was measured at Tampa (28.56 inches.) Interestingly, the tide in Tampa was only 3.1 feet above normal because the winds were actually blowing water out of the way since the hurricane landed east of the bay. Tides at Jacksonville were over 12 feet above normal, all the way on the other side of the state as easterly winds piled water against the East Coast.

1921 - October Hurricane: This storm had a pressure of 975mb (28.81 inches) at Tampa. It passed inland just north of Tampa near Tarpon Springs on October 25, 1921. The lowest barometer reading at Tarpon Springs was 952 millibars (28.12 inches.) It produced a storm surge that was 10.5 feet above normal in Tampa Bay. 1848 - Tampa Hurricane: This hurricane produced the greatest storm surge in the history of the Tampa Bay area. The surge measured 15 feet at Fort Brooke, the predecessor of present day Tampa. The fort was destroyed.

Hurricane Charley: Charley did not strike the Tampa Bay area directly, curving inland over Charlotte Harbor, about 90 miles south of Tampa Bay on Friday afternoon the 13th. The storm intensified rapidly in the three hours before landfall and reached the coast with top winds of 145 mph and a central pressure of 941 millibars, making it a category four storm.

The strongest thunderstorms at 8:20 tonight were along the Dallas/Wilcox County line. Still producing very heavy rain and lots of dangerous lightning.

When the big thunderstorm, loaded with lightning, moved through the Montgomery area earlier this evening, David Baxley, Meteorologist with WAKA-TV described the lightning as the "worst he has seen"

These rainfall amounts for the last 12 hours, since 6 oclock this morning:
1.81 inches in Alexander City
1.86 in Jemison
0.74 in North Auburn
0.49 in Clanton
0.87 at Horseshoe bend
0.49 at Sylacauga
0.75 at Holt Dam (east side of Tuscaloosa)
0.66 at Vincent
0.35 at Jordan Dam

The line of thunderstorms at 6:20 extended from North Marengo County in West Alabama, eastward to between marion and Selma and then to the Montgomery area.

The storms moving toward the ESE still dumping very heavy rain and, in a few cases, hail.

These reports:

+ Hail 3/4ths inch in diameter at Millbrook, Elmore County

+ Nickle size hail at Prattville, Autauga County

Both occurrences around 6 pm

Lots of water in Chilton Couny today... thanks to ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Justin Gentry for this picture of water in his back yard thanks to an afternoon downpour. Justin's rain total was 1.86"...

These additional Alabama counties have been removed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect until 7 pm, CDT:

Autauga, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Greene, Hale, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Marengo, Montgomery, Perry, Pike, Russell, Sumter, Tallapoosa.

However, the NWS, Birmingham, issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 6:15 for Autauga, Elmore and Montgomery County.

Late this afternoon, the National Weather Service, Birmingham, cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for these counties:

Clay, Jefferson, Pickens, Randolph, Shelby, Talladega, Tuscaloosa

The watch remains in effect for counties to the SE of those areas.

However, overall, the thunderstorms are not as strong, except:

Autauga and Elmore where very strong thunderstorms continue.

Thunderstorms today produced this rainfall:

1.60 inches in Alexander City
1.86 in Jemison (Chilton County)

Severe Thunderstorm watch still out there until 7 for much of East Central and SE Alabama including areas as far north as Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

However, the storms have avoided and stayed south of Jefferson County all afternoon.

At 4:15, the main band of thunderstorms extended from the Pickens-Green County line over on the west side of my favorite state...eastward along the Tuscaloosa-Hale County line...then across Bibb, Chilton and the SE corner of Shelby County. Thunderstorms over east Alabama, in Tallapoosa and Chambers County now much weaker.

The boomers were moving generally east but the whole line was sliding off to the ESE further away from Birmingham.

Reports from 33/40 Skywatchers:

0.24 rainfall in Northport
0.40 (estimated) at Lake Tuscaloosa Dam
1.37 at Jemison (Chilton County)

BLACK CREEK IN A TEMPORARY DESERT
33/40 Weather Watcher Vic Bell has been amazed how the rain avoids him--just like it does Kim Langston in Winfield. Vic reports only 0.28 in recent showers and a mere 5.92 for the last three months. That is less than two inches per month, less than one-half normal. Black Creek is in NE Etowah County, NE of Gadsden.

SARANAC LAKE
Nice to see Bonnie Jackson in Upstate New York posting in the comment section of the blog. She is also an E-forecast subscriber. A Frost Advisory is posted for that area tonight!

Tuscaloosa has been missing out on many of the good rains lately.

Not this afternoon.

It was raining heavily across the Tuscaloosa-Northport area at 3:30. A 33/40 Skywatcher in the Flatwoods area north of Northport reports a good soaking.

A band of thunderstorms extends west to east all the way across Central Alabama. From Pickens and Tuscaloosa on the west side...eastward across Bibb, Chilton to tallapoosa. Some of the heavier storms have occurred over Tallapoosa County.

A comment on the blog from Alexander City said it was raining "sideways" and it is the first really good rain all week.

Severe Thunderstorm watch still in effect until 7 this evening including areas as far north as Tuscaloosa and Birmingham and southward.

Most of the thunderstorms were roaming across Central Alabama this afternoon. Some new thunderstorms formed in West Central Alabama and were spreading eastward across Central Alabama.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was already in effect for a number of counties in Central Alabama until 7. Now, due to storms forming futher north, the NWS has extended the watch northward to include these additional counties until 7 pm:

extends area of Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Bibb, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Marengo, Perry, Pickens, Shelby, Sumter, Tuscaloosa till 7:00 PM CDT

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Just click on the link above to get the map discussion video in either the .wmv format (Windows Media), or the .mov format (Quicktime). We will offer the video in both formats, and of course you can also subscribe and see it in iTunes at no cost.

MORE STORMS: Within the past few minutes the severe thunderstorm watch has been expanded to include places like Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. Storms are redeveloping over Tuscaloosa and Jefferson Counties as I write this. Storms that fire up this afternoon can produce very heavy rain and lots of dangerous lightning. There is potential for some wet microbursts (small scale areas of damaging straight line winds) in the stronger storms. J.B. will keep you up to date on the short term weather situation for the rest of the afternoon and into the nighttime hours here on the blog.

THE WEEKEND: The 12Z models have come in a little wetter for tomorrow. A surface front will remain just to the north, and we will need to mention scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially tomorrow afternoon. Drier air should begin to move in by Sunday, and the showers and storms will become widely scattered, with the most numerous ones over the southern half of the state. Both the NAM and the GFS keep us in the 80s tomorrow, but we should see low 90s by Sunday with an increasing amount of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: Fairly routine summer weather is likely for much of next week as the upper air ridge rebuilds across the Deep South. A weak front will approach on Wednesday, which might give us a little increase in the number of showers and storms during the mid-week period.

TROPICS: Nice and quiet across the Atlantic basin this afternoon. What a difference a year can make, but this hurricane season is really just beginning. I somehow doubt it stays quiet down there in September.

Be sure and scroll down for all the blog posts today... I am amazed at the quality of information here (not counting my rambling stuff). Also, we invite you to bookmark WeatherParty.com:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

That is the site where you submit the links, vote on links and determine what is published to the front page. A social-networking weather site. Pretty cool.

Brian Peters will be handling the map discussion video updates over the weekend, I don't think he can render the Windows Media files (wmv), but he will have that capacity soon. We plan on producing the map video in .wmv, .mov, and .m4v formats until further notice so everyone should be happy. Have a great weekend... my next map discussion video will posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m.!