On the morning of Wednesday, September 12, 1979, preparations were underway along the Central Gulf Coast for extremely dangerous Hurricane Frederic. At 5 a.m. CDT, the hurricane was 250 miles southeast of New Orleans with top winds of 130mph. Frederic was approaching category four status. The central pressure as measured by Air Force reconnaissance was 948 millibars. Intensification had leveled off, but some slight strengthening was expected during the day. In fact, a 943 millibars central pressure measurement would be recorded at 6:57 a.m.

SPLASH model runs (used for predicting storm surge heights) indicated a storm surge of 11.5 feet for a 940 millibar storm moving north northwest at 11 knots making landfall just west of Mobile Bay. Advisories warned that there would be a 10-15 foot storm surge near and up to fifty miles east of the center at landfall. Interestingly, SPLASH runs indicated that the same storm making landfall just east of New Orleans would have resulted in a maximum storm surge of 19 feet at Bay St. Louis, Mississippi.

The storm was moving northwest at 12 mph, but was still expected to make a turn to a more northerly course. I can remember listening to WWL early that morning and hearing Norman Robinette say that the turn had already begun. In fact, WWL television meteorologist Nash Roberts would get in hot water with the National Weather Service. Roberts had gone on the air the night before and told residents of New Orleans not to prepare since the hurricane was going to turn. This was in direct contradiction to advice being issued by the local NWS office in New Orleans.

During the day, a total of 350,000 people evacuated low lying areas along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Northwest Florida. Memories of Hurricane Camille were still fresh in the minds of Mississippians, who heeded the evacuation advices of local officials. Local statements from the NWS Mobile were very specific with evacuation advices for coastal Alabama and Mississippi, stating that the preparations should be completed by noon.

Frederic made the expected slight turn to the north northwest, making landfall at about 10 p.m. CDT, passing over Dauphin Island and crossed the coastline near the Alabama/Mississippi border. A wind gust of 145 miles per hour was measured on equipment atop the Dauphin Island Bridge. The bridge was destroyed. A wind gust of 139 mph was measured at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab before the equipment failed. A storm surge of 12 feet was observed in Gulf Shores. Nearly all structures within 200 yards of the Alabama coast were destroyed. There were only two fatalities as a direct result of Frederic. Total damages were 2.3 billion dollars, making Frederic the most expensive hurricane ever to strike the United States up to that point.

Twenty six years ago today...Alabamians were carefully monitoring Hurricane Frederic in the Gulf of Mexico. J.B. Elliott was working at the National Weather Service. James Spann had just arrived on the Birmingham television weather scene.

For many of us, J.B. was a weather life line with his informative and interesting NOAA Weatheradio broadcasts. I used to record those transmissions (wish I still had them) and transcribe the significant information. I found these copies of the morning and afternoon Alabama Weather Summaries that J.B. wrote.


ALABAMA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 1979

…ALL EYES ON HURRICANE FREDERIC…

ITS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC BUT PERSONS PLANNING TO TRAVEL TO THE ALABAMA…NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST SHOULD KEEP CLOSELY INFORMAED ON HURRICANE FREDERIC.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN GROWING STRONGER ALL MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE HURRICANE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA…ALABAMA COASTAL AREA…ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A SPECIFIC FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SMALL CRAFT..HOWEVER...HAVE BEN ADVISED TO STAY IN PORT ALL THE WAY FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PRONOUNCED EFFECT ON ALABAMA WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON…HOWEVER…RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH ALABAMA WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

MEANWHILE…FOR NORTH ALABAMA…IT SHOULD BE FAIR THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ALABAMA…THURSDAY WILL BE OVERALL THE WORST DAY FOR HURRICANE FREDERIC.

REPEATING…ALABAMA RESIDENTS…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST…SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO GROWING HURRICANE FREDERIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS…MAINLY 60S NORTH AND 70S SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND 80S IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAST NIGHTS LOWS WERE IN THE 50S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH MAINLY 60S IN THE SOUTH.




ALABAMA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 1979

…FREDERIC IS NO LADY…ALABAMA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP POSTED…

ALL THAT SUNSHINE…PLEASANT READINGS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON CAN’T LAST MUCH LONGER…THANKS TO THE GROWING THREAT OF HURRICANE FREDERIC.

FREDERIC HAS BEEN GAINING STRENGTH ALL MORNING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHERE FREDERIC MAY EVENTUALLY HIT SHORE. HOWEVER…THE PROJECTED PATH SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTEARLY THURSDAY…POSSIBLY IN THE MOBILE AREA OR TO THE WEST OF MOBILE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPHASIZES THAT THIS IS NOT A SPECIFIC FORECAST AND THE LANDFALL PICTURE MAY COME INTO SHARPER FOCUS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY…ALABAMA RESIDENTS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPING STORM. THE STATE COULD GET VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NOT TO MENTION THE WIND.

SOME SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE MOBILE AREA TONIGHT SPREADING INLAND INTO NORTH ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTH ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AGAIN…ALABAMA RESIDENTS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST ON HURRICANE FREDERIC. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE MUCH MORE SPECIFIC LATER ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT THE PROJECTED TRACK.

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

It's hard to believe that one year ago today I was flying through Hurricane Ivan as it became a Category 5 hurricane in the Carribbean Sea. The Hurricane Hunter flight I was on made four passes through Ivan collecting data and transmitting it to the National Hurricane Center. What a day for a meteorologist to experience one of the most powerful storms on earth!

Our good weather pattern is expected to continue into the first half of the upcoming week. A weak front may be approaching the area near the end of the week bringing small chances for showers - showers we could really use as we enter our 11th day this month with NO RAIN!

Eyes of those of us in the southeastern US are still on Ophelia which is now stationary about 255 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC. Ophelia is a Category 1 hurricane and is now expected to begin moving generally northward and brush across the eastern sections of North Carolina and then along the coastline of the northeastern US. I always find it remarkable that we can have such a big weather feature like Hurricane Ophelia so close and yet the is no real impact on our weather. Only impact is actually positive as we get some sinking motion from all that air rising in the storm.

I'll be filling in for John Oldshue this evening plus I've been asked to emcee a couple of segments of the Katrina benefit concert in Helena at the amphitheater on Buck Creek this afternoon that runs from 1 to 8 pm. Hope you can come down and enjoy some great music and fantastic weather. Have a great week and God bless.

-Brian-