Stop whatever you are doing in Central Alabama. Run outside.
It is 9:40 p.m. and a beautiful moon high in the sky is surrounded by the most perfect halo I have ever seen.
A halo is caused by light bending through ice crystals at very high altitudes. They indicate that bad weather is to come. Not necessarily severe weather, although that is possible tomorrow.
Some folklore associated with haloes...
The moon with a circle
brings water in her beak
The bigger the ring
the nearer the wet
It's pretty close tonight.
Go check it out....
-Bill
Stop! Run Outside!
January 12, 2006, 10:43 pm
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
First Warnings and Watch in New Storm System
January 12, 2006, 8:40 pm
The NWS, Tulsa, has issued several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings early tonight--the first warnings of the same storm system that will affect Alabama tomorrow.
The warnings were for several Southeast Oklahoma counties as a line of intense thunderstorms was moving through the area. Hail the size of quarters was suspected.
The first Tornado Watch has also been posted. It goes until 2 am CST for:
Extreme Southeast Oklahoma
Extreme Northeast Texas
Northwest corner of Louisiana
Western 2/3 of Arkansas
The warnings were for several Southeast Oklahoma counties as a line of intense thunderstorms was moving through the area. Hail the size of quarters was suspected.
The first Tornado Watch has also been posted. It goes until 2 am CST for:
Extreme Southeast Oklahoma
Extreme Northeast Texas
Northwest corner of Louisiana
Western 2/3 of Arkansas
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
Interesting Weather System Ahead
January 12, 2006, 3:46 pm
The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
As noted below... SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to "moderate" for the southern two-thirds of Alabama tomorrow. As pointed out in that earlier post, the dynamics will be impressive tomorrow, but the thermodynamics will be very marginal for severe weather. Hard to get excited about a severe weather outbreak with relatively stable air in place. The chance of severe storms will be much higher over Southeast Alabama and South Georgia.
Most of the model output now shows rainfall amounts here between 1/2 and 1 inch tomorrow; the NAM extraction shows 0.58" for Birmingham. Looks like the best chance of showers and storms will come from about 6:00 a.m. through 2:00 p.m. I still think temperatures in Northwest Alabama will fall tomorrow afternoon as much colder air spills into the state.
Generally speaking, the models are colder for tomorrow night and Saturday. We will need to bring back the chance of snow flurries from about 10:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Saturday. A few flakes might be found as far south as I-20.
LIKE SNOW? Head to the Great Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely there... for places like Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge. Higher elevations might see 6 to 8 inches tomorrow night and Saturday morning. A winter storm watch is in effect...
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be a chilly day with a brisk northwest wind. We will forecast clearing, but don't be shocked if clouds hang tough much of the day. Looks like we go down into the mid to upper 20 Sunday morning... and then a warming trend begins Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic storm system comes in here late Monday night and Tuesday of next week. Looks alot like the one coming in here tomorrow. Excellent dynamics, marginal thermodynamics. We will get wet one way or another. And, another shot of cold air moves into the state for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
LONG RANGE: The pattern seems colder over the nation, generally speaking, toward the end of the month. A big ridge begins to rise over western Canada... we have to wonder if that might mark the beginning of a pattern change. We will have to wait and see... but I fully expect at least one blocked pattern/negative NAO cycle before we get to mid-March.
Great ride up to Piedmont today... I saw the 6th graders at Piedmont Middle School. They were a great audience and will be featured on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next map discussion video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... I will try to write about the ride into northeast Alabama tonight here.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
As noted below... SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to "moderate" for the southern two-thirds of Alabama tomorrow. As pointed out in that earlier post, the dynamics will be impressive tomorrow, but the thermodynamics will be very marginal for severe weather. Hard to get excited about a severe weather outbreak with relatively stable air in place. The chance of severe storms will be much higher over Southeast Alabama and South Georgia.
Most of the model output now shows rainfall amounts here between 1/2 and 1 inch tomorrow; the NAM extraction shows 0.58" for Birmingham. Looks like the best chance of showers and storms will come from about 6:00 a.m. through 2:00 p.m. I still think temperatures in Northwest Alabama will fall tomorrow afternoon as much colder air spills into the state.
Generally speaking, the models are colder for tomorrow night and Saturday. We will need to bring back the chance of snow flurries from about 10:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Saturday. A few flakes might be found as far south as I-20.
LIKE SNOW? Head to the Great Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely there... for places like Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge. Higher elevations might see 6 to 8 inches tomorrow night and Saturday morning. A winter storm watch is in effect...
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be a chilly day with a brisk northwest wind. We will forecast clearing, but don't be shocked if clouds hang tough much of the day. Looks like we go down into the mid to upper 20 Sunday morning... and then a warming trend begins Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic storm system comes in here late Monday night and Tuesday of next week. Looks alot like the one coming in here tomorrow. Excellent dynamics, marginal thermodynamics. We will get wet one way or another. And, another shot of cold air moves into the state for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
LONG RANGE: The pattern seems colder over the nation, generally speaking, toward the end of the month. A big ridge begins to rise over western Canada... we have to wonder if that might mark the beginning of a pattern change. We will have to wait and see... but I fully expect at least one blocked pattern/negative NAO cycle before we get to mid-March.
Great ride up to Piedmont today... I saw the 6th graders at Piedmont Middle School. They were a great audience and will be featured on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next map discussion video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... I will try to write about the ride into northeast Alabama tonight here.
SPC Moderate Risk For Tomorrow
January 12, 2006, 1:56 pm
Just back into the office from Piedmont...
Note that SPC has upgraded our severe weather risk tomorrow... a moderate risk covers about the southern two-thirds of Alabama, with a slight risk over north Alabama and northward into Kentucky.
Bottom line is that the dynamics are pretty good, but the thermodynamics are marginal for severe weather tomorrow. Quick glace at the new numbers from the 12Z NAM... valid for 6:00 a.m. tomorrow:
CAPE: 621
Lifted Index: -1.5
SWEAT Index: 178
Total Totals: 42
850 mb wind speed: 33 knots (it does ramp up to 51 knots at noon)
500 mb wind speed: 42 knots (ramps up to 74 knots at noon)
Seems like there is a window between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. with peak dynamic potential, but the instability is simply not there.
The 12Z runs also look colder... might have to bring in snow flurries tomorrow night and early Saturday morning again.
Give me a little time to look through a ton of data and I will have the video and discussion here ready by 3:00 or so...
Note that SPC has upgraded our severe weather risk tomorrow... a moderate risk covers about the southern two-thirds of Alabama, with a slight risk over north Alabama and northward into Kentucky.
Bottom line is that the dynamics are pretty good, but the thermodynamics are marginal for severe weather tomorrow. Quick glace at the new numbers from the 12Z NAM... valid for 6:00 a.m. tomorrow:
CAPE: 621
Lifted Index: -1.5
SWEAT Index: 178
Total Totals: 42
850 mb wind speed: 33 knots (it does ramp up to 51 knots at noon)
500 mb wind speed: 42 knots (ramps up to 74 knots at noon)
Seems like there is a window between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. with peak dynamic potential, but the instability is simply not there.
The 12Z runs also look colder... might have to bring in snow flurries tomorrow night and early Saturday morning again.
Give me a little time to look through a ton of data and I will have the video and discussion here ready by 3:00 or so...
by James Spann
in Severe Weather
Colder Than We Thought--and My Fault
January 12, 2006, 11:54 am
Colder across Alabama this morning than we had forecast.
Not a near miss, but, in some places, a significant one.
And, it is my fault, even though James accepted the blame.
I had originally put down 38 for the expected Birmingham low for this morning. Even that would not have been low enough. That was my gut feeling. Wish I had stuck with that.
But I did about a five-hour sample of late morning and early after dew points upstream to try to determine what kind of dew point profile we would have overnight. Places like Memphis, Tupelo, Shreveport, Jackson, etc. That, plus thinking the wind would kick up just a bit, plus the models caused me to switch it back to 42. The lesson from all this:
+ Sometimes a gut feeling is better than the models.
+ Occasionally, Mother Nature steps in and reminds us that she really is The Boss.
Anyway, not trying to make excuses, so here are some morning lows. See the note at the end about a major temperature inversion this morning also.
26 in Hamilton
27 in Rainbow City and Black Creek (both in Etowah County)
28 in Fort Payne and at Gadsden Airport
29 at Jasper and in Desoto State Park
30 in Pinson, Alabaster, Addison and Fayette
31 in Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Ashland, Livingston
32 in Oneonta
33 in Wedowee
36 at the airports in Anniston and Birmingham
37 in Helena
38 in Montgomery
ANOTHER BIG TEMPERATURE INVERSION
It was in Northeast Alabama. The low at Fort Payne Airport this morning was 28. Up on the mountain, not far away and at an elevation of 1765 feet, it was 47 in Mentone.
A difference of 19 degrees!
Another weather station at an elevation of 1841 feet in Mentone had a low of 45.
And...scan down to read the account of the major 1982 ice storm in Alabama by James Spann.
Not a near miss, but, in some places, a significant one.
And, it is my fault, even though James accepted the blame.
I had originally put down 38 for the expected Birmingham low for this morning. Even that would not have been low enough. That was my gut feeling. Wish I had stuck with that.
But I did about a five-hour sample of late morning and early after dew points upstream to try to determine what kind of dew point profile we would have overnight. Places like Memphis, Tupelo, Shreveport, Jackson, etc. That, plus thinking the wind would kick up just a bit, plus the models caused me to switch it back to 42. The lesson from all this:
+ Sometimes a gut feeling is better than the models.
+ Occasionally, Mother Nature steps in and reminds us that she really is The Boss.
Anyway, not trying to make excuses, so here are some morning lows. See the note at the end about a major temperature inversion this morning also.
26 in Hamilton
27 in Rainbow City and Black Creek (both in Etowah County)
28 in Fort Payne and at Gadsden Airport
29 at Jasper and in Desoto State Park
30 in Pinson, Alabaster, Addison and Fayette
31 in Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Ashland, Livingston
32 in Oneonta
33 in Wedowee
36 at the airports in Anniston and Birmingham
37 in Helena
38 in Montgomery
ANOTHER BIG TEMPERATURE INVERSION
It was in Northeast Alabama. The low at Fort Payne Airport this morning was 28. Up on the mountain, not far away and at an elevation of 1765 feet, it was 47 in Mentone.
A difference of 19 degrees!
Another weather station at an elevation of 1841 feet in Mentone had a low of 45.
And...scan down to read the account of the major 1982 ice storm in Alabama by James Spann.
A Weather Smorgasbord
January 12, 2006, 7:03 am
The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I sure didn't do a good job with forecasting minimum temps this morning. Our forecast package used 42... here are some 5:00 a.m. observations:
Gadsden 30
Tuscaloosa 31
Birmingham 36
Anniston 37
Nothing like a good BUST every once in a while to bring you down. BAD BAD BAD. Remind me next time the models have a WARM bias on radiation cooling nights in Alabama in winter. They just don't understand... but we should!
TODAY: Even with the morning chill, I still think we warm into the low 70s today in many spots. Dry air can indeed heat effectively this time of the year with full sunshine.
STORMY FRIDAY: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for almost all of Alabama tomorrow. I still just can't excited about severe weather with hardly any surface instability available. Here are some severe weather parameters valid for 12 noon tomorrow (for Birmingham):
CAPE: 279
0 to 3 km Helicity: 106
SWEAT Index: 175
Total totals: 46
Temp/Dewpoint: 58/55
850 mb wind speed: 34 knots
500 mb wind speed: 73 knots
About the only parameter that really sticks out is the 500 mb wind speed... 73 knots is pretty impressive. Otherwise, most other parameters are far below "trigger" levels for severe weather around here. We will review the 12Z model output and refresh those numbers later today. Of course, I always remind people to "expect the unexpected" when it comes to thunderstorms.
COLDER AIR: The storms should move out of Alabama during the afternoon tomorrow, and colder air moves in. I expect the northwest part of the state to see falling temperatures in the wake of the storms. Places like Hamilton, Russellville, and Muscle Shoals could wind up in the 40s tomorrow afternoon with a chilly north wind. Everyone will be well down in the 30s by Saturday morning.
We should clear Saturday morning, and if the sun can indeed break out we should reach the low 50s Saturday afternoon. Then, a light freeze is likely early Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic storm system rolls in here with more showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong storms could be an issue...the amount of instability will be the big question (much like the system tomorrow). Following those storms, Wednesday of next week looks pretty cold. The GFS continues to advertise a very cold upper trough overhead; if that is correct we could be in the 30s all day.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of blocking or a negative NAO. Cold shots will be quick, and storm systems will pass through every three to four days. I can't help but notice the ridge over Florida... if you want some warm winter weather Miami is the place for you. The dreaded 588 circle even shows up over the southeast Bahamas at 384 hours... that is something you normally don't see until April or May down there.
BUT... the air is brutally cold in Siberia and into Northern Canada. Winter is far from over.
Looking forward to a trip today to Piedmont... in far northern Calhoun County... will be speaking to the kids at the middle school there. I think I will come into town from the south, up Alabama 9. What a beautiful drive. Then, I will probably come back through Gadsden. I will have the afternoon map discussion video on the server by 3:30!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I sure didn't do a good job with forecasting minimum temps this morning. Our forecast package used 42... here are some 5:00 a.m. observations:
Gadsden 30
Tuscaloosa 31
Birmingham 36
Anniston 37
Nothing like a good BUST every once in a while to bring you down. BAD BAD BAD. Remind me next time the models have a WARM bias on radiation cooling nights in Alabama in winter. They just don't understand... but we should!
TODAY: Even with the morning chill, I still think we warm into the low 70s today in many spots. Dry air can indeed heat effectively this time of the year with full sunshine.
STORMY FRIDAY: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for almost all of Alabama tomorrow. I still just can't excited about severe weather with hardly any surface instability available. Here are some severe weather parameters valid for 12 noon tomorrow (for Birmingham):
CAPE: 279
0 to 3 km Helicity: 106
SWEAT Index: 175
Total totals: 46
Temp/Dewpoint: 58/55
850 mb wind speed: 34 knots
500 mb wind speed: 73 knots
About the only parameter that really sticks out is the 500 mb wind speed... 73 knots is pretty impressive. Otherwise, most other parameters are far below "trigger" levels for severe weather around here. We will review the 12Z model output and refresh those numbers later today. Of course, I always remind people to "expect the unexpected" when it comes to thunderstorms.
COLDER AIR: The storms should move out of Alabama during the afternoon tomorrow, and colder air moves in. I expect the northwest part of the state to see falling temperatures in the wake of the storms. Places like Hamilton, Russellville, and Muscle Shoals could wind up in the 40s tomorrow afternoon with a chilly north wind. Everyone will be well down in the 30s by Saturday morning.
We should clear Saturday morning, and if the sun can indeed break out we should reach the low 50s Saturday afternoon. Then, a light freeze is likely early Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic storm system rolls in here with more showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong storms could be an issue...the amount of instability will be the big question (much like the system tomorrow). Following those storms, Wednesday of next week looks pretty cold. The GFS continues to advertise a very cold upper trough overhead; if that is correct we could be in the 30s all day.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of blocking or a negative NAO. Cold shots will be quick, and storm systems will pass through every three to four days. I can't help but notice the ridge over Florida... if you want some warm winter weather Miami is the place for you. The dreaded 588 circle even shows up over the southeast Bahamas at 384 hours... that is something you normally don't see until April or May down there.
BUT... the air is brutally cold in Siberia and into Northern Canada. Winter is far from over.
Looking forward to a trip today to Piedmont... in far northern Calhoun County... will be speaking to the kids at the middle school there. I think I will come into town from the south, up Alabama 9. What a beautiful drive. Then, I will probably come back through Gadsden. I will have the afternoon map discussion video on the server by 3:30!
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