Had an interesting note from John Brasher... who was at the NWS radar site near Centreville on May 27, 1973 when a powerful tornado rolled through. Thought you might like to read his story:

Hey James,
As a photographer/reporter from the Centreville Press, I was at Centreville radar when the May 27, 1973 storm struck that facility. When the roof went, the two NWS guys and I jumped beside a desk in an office adjacent to the radar room. The radar dish was blown from its tower, landing about 20 feet or so away from the room we dove into.

No one at the radar site took refuge in a ditch Just wanted to mention that.

Shortly after first identifying the echo near Greenesboro, Dale Black, who was radar operator that day until being literally knocked off the "air", plotted the tornado's projected path. I remember vividly Dale looking up from the scope and saying if the tornado didn't break up, it would pass right over us. The echo was very large and well defined. I also remember the three of us walking outside shortly after tornado warnings were posted and about 30 minutes before the storm hit us. Comments were made about how the steady wind from the southwest felt like it was coming from a "blast furnace". And the "sweet" smell of fresh cut hay or something similar. I have never forgotten the feel of the air in advance of that tornado.

The prospects of a beneficial rain event this weekend are looking smaller and smaller. There will be showers tomorrow night thanks to a passing cold front, but amounts of only a quarter inch are expected. The moisture will be rather limited, and the best upper dynamics will pass well to the north of Alabama. Much of next week looks dry, so our rain deficit for the year will only grow larger over the next seven days (right now we need about five and a half inches to get back to normal). Birmingham’s total rain for the month of May is a paltry 0.01”. In a “normal” May, we get 4.83” of rain here.

The recent dry spell combined with the increasing amount of sunshine means the soil moisture is being depleted, and that could be a big player in summer temperatures here in Alabama. When soil moisture is deep and plentiful, a pretty good bit of the sun’s energy is required to evaporate that moisture, and not as much solar energy is available to heat the ground, which in turns heats the low level air. On the other hand, when we have dry soil that can set the stage for some very hot summer weather. During heat waves when temperatures reach the triple digits here, the lack of soil moisture is one key ingredient.

Let me say clearly it is too early to call a excessively hot summer. Even with limited soil moisture, some upper air conditions can lead to cooler than normal weather here during the summer months. But, I sure would like to see a good, all-day type soaking for Alabama before we get into June, July, and August. Unfortunately, the computer models don’t offer much hope for such a set-up over the next couple of weeks. The other hope we have is for some kind of early season tropical wave or depression to move in here and bring some decent amounts of rain. That can happen as early as June.

Heat waves and droughts are my least favorite kind of weather to deal with; I sure hope I don't have to forecast those kind of conditions this summer.

The Thursday afternoon video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We need rain, but it sure looks dry here for the next two weeks.

Tomorrow the heat begins to back off a bit, with highs in the mid 80s, as the upper ridge begins to flatten a bit and the heights are a little lower.

Over the weekend the long awaited cold front will pass through sometime early Sunday morning, and we will have a band of showers with the front Saturday night. With each model run, the amount of rain expected here looks smaller and smaller. We are down to about a quarter of an inch from about 7:00 p.m. Saturday through 6:00 a.m. Sunday. I am not even sure there will be much thunder and lightning.

We will get a break from the heat and humidity Sunday and Monday; we are forecasting low 50s early Monday, and some spots might reach the upper 40s. We won't have many more of those mornings until fall.

THE LONG RANGE: I still don't see any real evidence of any big rain event here for the next 15 days or so. There are signs that temperatures might be below normal for the last two weeks of May, but unfortunately I just don't see any big rain event at this time. Hopefully this will change.

Going into the summer with hardly any soil moisture could mean some very hot weather by the time we get to July and August... I will write more about this on a post late tonight.

Thanks to the 3rd graders at Cherokee Bend Elementary today... another great audience!

The Thursday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not sure when to quit using "very warm" and using "hot" in the forecast, but I think today qualifies as "hot" for me. Highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, with a few spots possibly reaching the low 90s. Like yesterday, one or two isolated showers could pop up during the heat of the day, but 98 percent of the state should be dry.

The heat backs off just slightly tomorrow as the upper ridge begins to break down a bit.

WEEKEND RAIN: I am not very encouraged about us getting any beneficial rain this weekend. Model QPF keeps getting smaller and smaller, and it is beginning to look like rain totals will be in the 1/4 inch range for most places with a narrow band of showers Saturday night. There could be a little thunder and lightning, but no severe weather with the main dynamic support so far to the north. Birmingham's rain total for the month is only 0.01", and the deficit for the year is well over five inches now.

No rain for much of next week... as dry air moves in following the front that passes through early Sunday.

That drier air should give us a nice cool morning early Monday, with low 50s. Maybe even some upper 40s in the colder spots over north and central Alabama.

THE LONG RANGE: The GFS is showing a clear trend toward lowered heights over the eastern U.S. during the last half of May, which could very well mean cooler than normal temperatures for us. I don't think anybody will find that bad news. I am not convinced we will have any big rain events during the change, but maybe we will have at least one good chance for showers and storms as the eastern U.S. trough sets up. I don't like to see these dry conditions as we head into summer.

Headed out to Cherokee Bend Elementary in Mountain Brook today for a weather program... not many of those left before summer vacation!