Looking back at Dennis one more time…

I am beginning to realize that we broke lots of new ground in relaying weather information to the masses. We had not one, but two meteorologists “blogging” from the Alabama Gulf coast with laptops and wireless Internet access.

My associates Brian Peters and Bill Murray posted to this blog before, during, and after the arrival of Hurricane Dennis. And, the blog reached more people than some TV stations during the event! The number of people reading the ABC 33/40 weather blog here peaked at 71,342 last Friday, followed by 67,394 Saturday and 55,333 on Sunday. Just a year or so ago most people around here never heard of a blog (short for web log). Astounding.

Then, our television coverage this past Saturday night was split apart from our main ABC 33/40 signal for the first time ever. We went with a three and a half hour special on our digital signals 33.2 and 40.2. With the new digital transmission we have, we have one high definition signal and three standard definition signals that means you will never have to miss your favorite program again next time we have to go into severe weather coverage. Of course, a relatively small percentage of people have digital TV sets now, but everyone will have one within a few years as the old analog signals will go away. Charter cable systems across north and central Alabama picked up our digital signal and put it on Channel 99, so cable viewers in Birmingham and across the state could watch, even with no digital TV. There were some initial technical problems with the Charter feed, but it was cleared up by 8:00.

The response was overwhelmingly positive, and the only thing missing was live streaming on the Internet. And, don’t worry, we hope to have that in place for the next tropical system or tornado warning.

The times, they are a changin’…..

Storms have now moved on over into St. Clair and Etowah County.

We may be in for an unusually beautiful sunset.

I'm headed outside to check the western sky.

Bet James will capture it on Towercam for the 10 o'clock news.

8:10 PM followup...
Sorry, sunset was a dud from where I am located.

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Our pal Dennis brought a vast supply of tropical moisture from the Gulf and the Caribbean into Alabama. The 12Z sounding from the Shelby County Airport shows precipitatible water of 1.94"... about as high as it gets.

A band of storms over east Alabama prompted the NWS in Birmingham to issue a flash flood warning for a number of counties early this afternoon.

Our weather won't change much through Friday; lots of clouds each day, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While most of them will come in the afternoon, in this kind of airmass you can't rule out a shower at night or during the morning. The showers and storms should become more widely scattered late this weekend and early next week as heights rise, but an approaching surface boundary will bring an increase of showers and storms again toward the middle of next week.

I still see absolutely no sign of excessive heat (mid 90s or hotter) here for the next 15 days... in fact the GFS develops a big trough over the eastern U.S. toward the end of the month.

EMILY: The system is really moving quickly; at 20 mph. Until it slows down a bit I am not sure it can deepen explosively. The latest GFDL run still ramps this thing up to 126 knots in a couple of days. The NHC position has Emily just south of Cuba Sunday morning, very close to the position of Dennis when it was moving into Cuba.

The 12Z GFS takes Emily almost due west, across the Yucatan peninsula, into the Bay of Campeche, and into the far southern coast of Mexico. Everyone in Mobile, Gulf Shores, and Pensacola would celebrate this, but I sure would not trust the GFS on a tropical system so far in advance. The GFS might be right, but it might be wrong.

Check out the video and see the sea surface temperatures... very, very warm in the western Gulf. There has indeed been upwelling in the central and eastern Gulf from Cindy and Dennis, and waters are a little cooler. If something gets into the western Gulf, Galveston, Corpus Cristi, and Brownville need to be watching very, very closely. Something could really explode over there.

My gut feeling says Emily goes into far southern Texas or Mexico; with the mid-latitude trough in the westerlies too far noth to bring a northward motion early next week. But, as I have said here many many times, you don't forecast the weather and run your life based on FEELINGS. They will lie and get you in trouble!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLANTON
SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBIANA
CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST END-COBB TOWN...PIEDMONT...
OXFORD...ANNISTON
CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HEFLIN
COOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ROCKFORD
TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...LINCOLN...
CHILDERSBURG

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 1254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
EDWARDSVILLE TO 10 MILES WEST OF JEMISON...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF HEFLIN TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTEVALLO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BORDEN SPRINGS...MAPLESVILLE...THORSBY...WEOGUFKA AND VERBENA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

They are moving up from the SW and approaching the Birmingham Metro area.

Looks like the heavier showers will move across Shelby County--especially the north part of the county.

Be careful with the lightning while you are out. I am chicken when it comes to lightning and road rage!

Atlanta had more serious flash-flooding than Alabama from Dennis rainfall.

Yesterday's midnight to midnight total in Atlanta was 4.69 inches. This brings their total for the first 11 days of July to an impressive 13.01 inches. That's 11.22 above normal and their excess for the year so far is 9.82 inches.

Mobile has been drenched with 10.33 inches in the last 11 days. That's an average of almost one inch per day! Mobile is 12.13 inches ahead of the game so far this year.

But Pensacola takes the cake. Already a whopping 58.32 inches of rain for the year, over 24 inches above normal! This is already 3 or 4 inches more than Birmingham normally gets for an entire year.

Is Pensacola on the way to a 100-inch rainfall total this year?

Will be interesting to watch.

Big blanket of tropical air is smothering Alabama.

Dennis left it here for us as he hightailed it out of town.

In that tropical air a band of showers has developed. At 10 am, the showers, and some thunderstorms, extended from SW of Columbus, Miss., ENE across Alabama's North Pickens, Lamar, Fayette, North Tuscaloosa Counties and across the Jefferson-Blount County line.

Movement is toward the ENE and the entire line is lifting northward.

Not a great deal of lightning so far.

Gotta keep showers and thunderstorms in the daily forecast for the forecastable future because of our rich, moist air.

Keep smiling and perspiring.

Meanwhile, our non-friend, Ex-Dennis was centered over Southern Illinois at 10 am producing widespread rain. One to two inches of rain has fallen over parts of SE and East Illinois in the last 24 hours.

From our associate Bill Murray:

Accoding to my records...

Emily is the earliest E named storm...

The only other E storm to form in July was Ella in 1966...formed on July 27

Prior to storms being amed, there have only been two fifth storms that have originated in July..

1933 unnamed 5th storm formed on 7/28
1933 unnamed 5th storm formed on 7/31

**I think Bill made a typo on the last line; I will get the correct year posted later today!**

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Dennis brought air up into Alabama from the Caribbean, and it will stay in place all week as our old friend slowly fades away up north around Indianapolis. High dewpoints and spokes rotating around Dennis will means scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis through Friday. Each day will feature more clouds than sun, and temperatures will be a little below normal due to the clouds and showers. And, I should mention in this kind of pure tropical air a shower is possible at just about anytime, not just during the afternoon and evening hours.

Heights and temperatures aloft begin to rise late this weekend, meaning the showers should thin out a bit by Sunday and Monday of next week. But, a fairly strong upper trough for summer will swing a surface boundary down this way toward the middle of next week, which will probably enhance the formation of showers and storms again.

EMILY: I am really thankful we can pronounce these names so far this year. Latest track from NHC puts Emily in a position very close to the southern coast of eastern Cuba by just after midnight Saturday night. This is very close to where Dennis moved onto the Cuban coast. The GFDL ramps up Emily to a 131 knot hurricane (151 mph) before it interacts with the mountains.

I am sure there was some upwelling from Dennis with slightly lower SSTs, which might prevent Emily from becoming a major hurricane, but that is not certain. I do believe Emily will be a Gulf of Mexico storm. Will the system move into the Mexican or Texas coast? Or, be a threat to the central Gulf coast again? The latitude will be the key; if the thing gets far enough north it might be influenced by the big mid-latitude trough forecast to be north of us by the middle of next week. Is it simply too early to tell. We will be waiting and watching.