Kudos to Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University for speaking the truth in an interview with Discover magazine. This guy has it nailed, and the media sure doesn't want to hear it:

http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-05/departments/discover-dialogue/

Here are some highlights:

A few years ago, you almost called it quits because you'd lost so much funding. What made you continue?

I don't have the budget that I had, so I have cut my project work way back. I am in retirement. I'm still working every day, but I don't teach and I don't have as many graduate students and as much financial need. I've got a little money from Lexington Insurance out of Boston, an I have some National Science Foundation money. For years, I haven't had any NOAA, NASA, or Navy money. But I'm having more fun. Right now I'm trying to work on this human-induced global-warming thing that I think is grossly exaggerated.

You don't believe global warming is causing climate change?

No. If it is, it is causing such a small part that it is negligible. I'm not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930's and '40, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle '40s to the early '70s. And there has been warming since the middle '70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced.

That must be a controversial position among hurricane researchers.

Nearly all of my colleagues who have been around 40 or 50 years are skeptical as hell about this whole global-warming thing. But no one asks us. If you don't know anything about how the atmosphere functions you will of course say, "Look, greenhouse gases are going up, the globe is warming, they must be related." Well, just because there are two associations, changing with the same sign, doesn't mean that one is causing the other.

With last year's hurricane season so active and this year's looking like it will be, won't people say it's evidence of global warming?

The Atlantic has had more of these storms in the last 10 years or so, but in other ocean basins, activity is slightly down. Why would that be so if this is climate change? The Atlantic is a special basin? The number of major storms in the Atlantic also went way down from the middle 1960s to the middle '90s, when greenhouse gases were going up.

Why is there scientific support for the idea?

So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing--all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more. Now that the cold war is over, we have to generate a common enemy to support science, and what better common enemy for the globe than greenhouse gases?

Are your funding problems due in part to your views?

I can't be sure, but I think that's a lot of the reason. I have been around 50 years, so my views on this are well known. I had NOAA money for 30 some years, and then when the Clinton administration came in and Gore started directing some of the environmental stuff, I was cut off. I couldn't get any NOAA money. They turned down 13 straight proposals from me.

Check out the scene now from Beech Mountain, NC:

http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_BeechSports.htm

Thanks to Josh Johnson at WTOK for the tip!

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

First off, for the snow lovers hoping and praying for a winter storm in about a week, it is way too early to focus on run to run changes with the GFS. It is struggling with the overall pattern... once again we need to get past this mid-week storm then we can focus on details of the situation this weekend and beyond.

MID-WEEK SYSTEM: Still looks cold and wet. The NAM shows 1.33" for Birmingham in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame with temperatures mostly in the 40s. And, yes, we will still be dealing with cold air damming over east and northeast Alabama.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be all over the road; highs over the eastern counties near the Georgia border (Cherokee, Cleburne, etc) will probably be in the upper 30s, while west Alabama near the Mississippi border could reach the mid 50s. Rain should be come widespread by Wednesday afternoon, continuing Wednesday night before tapering off Thursday morning.

The greatest chance of a significant freezing rain/ice event will come from northeast Georgia, through the western Carolinas and into western Virginia.

FRIDAY: Should be a cool and dry day as we really begin to work on figuring out the weather for...

THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND: As you might expect, the 12Z GFS comes in with a totally different solution, and we basically reject that for now. Watch the video for the details; it brings an impulse through the northern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Saturday night, and lowers thickness values enough for a strip of snow along U.S. 80 through central Alabama. We don't buy this; we think the cold air holds off until early next week, more like the European model suggests. Yes, we will have a chance of at some rain over the southern two-thirds of the state over the weekend, but for now we are thinking all liquid.

The 12Z run of the GFS does bring very cold air in here next week, but with the big storm remaining well to the south of us, over the open Gulf of Mexico. Once again, we reject that idea for now.

We think a shot of very cold, Arctic air dives into Texas this weekend, and sets the stage for a wave to form on the old front in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This, in combination with a strong short wave approaching from the northwest, will bring a rapidly deepening storm system through southern Georgia Monday night or early Tuesday, and could set up a winter storm threat for parts of the deep south.

Quite frankly, just about anyone from Texas (even deep south Texas) across the Gulf coast states to Alabama could be facing the threat of a winter storm early next week. We have the elements in place, we just don't know this far in advance how it all comes together. So, for now, once again we simply defining a winter storm threat for the deep south.

We need to get through the mid-week system first, and then we can deal with the specifics of events from Saturday through the middle of next week. Even if we do not get a storm, a very sharp change to colder weather is likely in about 7 to 8 days.

Yes, snow events are rare in December, but they have happened before....

Anyone remember the New Years Eve snow on December 31, 1963/January 1, 1964? Huntsville measured 17 inches, while Birmingham reported 8 inches.

A new six inch snow was observed in Birmingham on December 22, 1929.

Who knows... maybe we can add 2005 to the list of December snows.

MORE FROM THE MS COAST: From Scott McClellan:

Thank you for posting those photos on the blog James. I have heard from a few people so far concerning them. If possible, could you PLEASE emphasize the need for FOOD DONATIONS here. Clothing isnt as much a need as food is. We have run out of food here at our distribution center in Ocean Springs MS. If there is any way you can get this word out, it would be IMMENSLEY appreciated. Please let anyone know, if they are interested, that they can contact me here at this email address. Thank you James, ahead of time. Your work for the public and the Kingdom is very uplifting. God bless.

See the pictures on the blog... scroll down to the posts from December 8.

Scott's e-mail address is scott_mcclellan33@yahoo.com if you can help...

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

A few notes at mid-morning...

*Gunnison, CO was the cold spot in the nation this morning with 17 below zero.

*The 12Z NAM is in the house and continues to show a good soaking cold rain event Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and early Thursday. The extraction shows 1.33" of rain for Birmingham, with temperatures hovering in the 42 to 47 degree range here as the rain falls. Still looks like all rain here, with a major ice problem for parts of the western Carolinas.

*Concerning the potential winter storm threat early next week, the GFS puts down 24 inches of snow over the Carolinas with that system. That is TWO FEET. Of course, a specific solution can be trusted right now. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Probably not.

Will have the full discussion and video ready by 3:30...

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I have mentioned here many times in recent weeks I think we will have one, maybe two, winter storm threats before the month is over. Sure looks like that threat is shaping up in about one week. But first...

MID-WEEK STORM: Following dry weather today and tomorrow, a rain event is shaping up for mid-week. Just for fun, cold air damming will be involved. Let me say up from I don't think at this point temperatures will be cold enough for any ice over northeast Alabama Wednesday night. But, it sure looks like a cold rain up there.

Temperature forecasting will be a nightmare Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS shows a high of 45 for Birmingham on Wednesday. Could be a day on which Tuscaloosa has a high of 51, and Centre has a high of 38.

The rain should end early in the day Thursday.

WEEKEND: A little Gulf system passes south of here on Saturday. For the moment it looks like the bulk of the rain with that feature will stay south of I-20.

WINTER STORM THREAT? Now don't go posting on message boards that James Spann is forecasting snow here in a week. I am just saying there could be a THREAT of snow here. And, maybe a pretty good one. You know the deal, lets get through the mid-week system and then we can focus on the winter storm threat. Like a football coach, I like to take storm systems one at a time.

Here are the players on the field:

*A very cold 1043 mb high over Kansas. The 00Z run of the GFS built the pressure to almost 1050 mb over Wyoming. Frigid Arctic air dives deep into Texas Sunday, and begins to come our way early next week. The idea of highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s here early next week (December 19-20) is laughable. We will probably struggle to climb above freezing by Tuesday December 20.

*A strong short wave aloft will move from the southern plains into the deep south. Some runs close off an upper level low over Alabama and Georgia by Tuesday. Thickness values drop like a rock.

*A surface low will form in the northern Gulf of Mexico, moving northeast to a point near the Georgia coast, and then up the eastern seaboard.

We know the players, but we won't know the game plan just yet. But, there is no doubt this could turn into a major winter storm threat for areas all the way from Texas across the deep south, including Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. This one might even bring the risk of a few snow flakes to the southern tip of Texas; our radio affiliate in McAllen is KVMV-FM; last year they had some snow at Christmas as well.

It will be pretty late in the week before the details will be known.... but we will do out best to keep up with the clues we see in coming days.

This thing could wind up being a little rain, a sharp change to colder temperatures, and a few snow flurries for Alabama. But, on the other hand, it could turn out to be a potent winter storm for us. This pre-Christmas winter storm will be the focus of our discussions here for the rest of the week, needless to say.

LONG RANGE: I think the GFS is horrible in the longer range and is rejected. I still think, generally speaking, temperatures remain below normal for the rest of the month.

The next map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon...