Thanks to blog reader Larry Mason for these pictures... Larry says:

"Just got back this afternoon…it started snowing late Friday night and was still snowing this morning. Total storm total where I stayed was about 10”. I looked at the smoky reports..they showed 7” at Sugarland (I’ve noticed in the past that their ruler must be broken). It was a fantastic trip."

This weekend we don’t have the “Battle of the Bands”, but the “Battle of the Airmasses” across the Deep South.

The coldest air so far this season will be rolling into the northern half of the nation in coming days, and the leading edge of that air should slip into Alabama late Friday or Friday night. It is beginning to look like the front will stall somewhere near U.S. 80, or over Central Alabama. This will probably mean a huge temperature contrast; on Saturday the mercury in Mobile might reach 70, while the high in Huntsville will be closer to 35. The cold air over North Alabama will also be very shallow, perhaps only two or three thousand feet deep. And, that brings concern of freezing rain as a wave forms on the front.

Freezing rain is simply rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder, and a long period of freezing rain can lead to an ice storm. Those are basically no fun, and can be extremely disruptive thanks to power outages and ice covered roads. The last extremely serious ice storm for the Birmingham metro area was way back in 1982.

So, who gets the ice this weekend? Really hard to say now since global computer models don’t really have the resolution to handle cold air that is only 2,000 feet deep. At first glance, it looks like our friends to the north will have the best chance of ice; extreme North Alabama and Tennessee. A stalled Arctic front with very cold air that is very shallow to the north means a big forecast challenge. Quite frankly, a broad area from Texas through the Deep South into the Carolinas could be a target for some ice accumulation from Friday night through the weekend. We will fine tune this forecast in coming days, but the main message is not to get used to the warmer temperatures we will enjoy through mid-week!

Thanks to Bill McMillan for sharing these pictures from Mountain City, Tennessee, where the total accumulation was 10 inches:

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Yes, we do have a battle ahead this weekend, and someone might wind up with lots of ice across the Deep South. But first...

WE WARM UP: After another freeze tonight, look for upper 50s tomorrow and low 60s on Wednesday as a nice warming trend kicks in. Moisture will begin to return on Wednesday, but for now we won't mention any chance of rain in our formal forecast despite clouds on the increase.

WE GET WET: A cold front approaching on Friday will bring a good chance of showers. The front marks the leading edge of the coldest air seen so far this season over the "lower 48"; many locations up north should go well below zedro. Where that front stops will determine our weekend weather.

THE WEEKEND BATTLE: The frigid air to the north will battle the tropical air to the south. Thankfully, this is no set up for severe weather. But, north of the Arctic front a nasty ice storm might be brewing. Warm, moist air will be riding up and over a shallow layer of very cold air near the surface (overrunning). The cold air will probably only be a few thousand feet thick just behind the front, a very good setup for freezing rain (rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees (F) or colder).

The GFS wants to hang the front up near the Tennessee border, which would mean most of the ice problems would remain up over Tennessee.

However, the JMA and the NOGAPS push the front down to near Montgomery, which could mean a chance of ice for parts of North Alabama Friday night or Saturday.

One important point: the global models really don't have the resolution to understand very cold air only two to three thousand deep near the surface. Your usual thickness values and the 850 temps won't reflect this anyway.

SO WHAT HAPPENS? I think we have to at least mention a chance of freezing rain Friday night or Saturday for the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. We will mention only a cold rain for the I-20 corridor, but watch for forecast changes. These situations are very difficult to handle, and I do have great concern somebody will be slammed with lots of ice across the Deep South. Most likely, extreme North Alabama, North Georgia, and Tennessee. But, maybe more to the south. Stay tuned...

LONG RANGE: That stalled Arctic front should drift northward by early next week meaning mostly rain around here. The latter half of the month sure looks wet as we will be on the southern edge of the westerlies as the battle continues between very, very cold air to the north and the tropical ridge to the south.

STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our annual severe weather awareness tour comes to Talladega this Thursday... we will begin at 7:00 p.m. at the Ritz Theatre on the square downtown. Come early to get a t-shirt and a good seat!

New York and Boston not the only places buried with snow. Look at these east Tennessee numbers from this morning:

7 inches on the ground at Gatlinburg with a low this morning of 24 degrees
9 inches in Cades Cove
16 inches at Oconaluftee with low of 23
41 inches atop Mt. Leconte, low of 4 above after a high Sunday of 10

In Extreme Northeast Tennessee, Johnson County, the Mountain City Weather Center reports 10 to 15 inches across the county with 1 to 3 inches more expected today. However, the upslope areas in the county may end up with a storm total of 18 to 30 inches.

By the way, Mountain City, the highest town in Tennessee, recorded a low of 32 below zero way back on December 30, 1917.

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

After a wintry weekend, Alabama will enjoy a warm-up this week. But, to the north the coldest air so far this season invades the northern states, and will set the stage for quite a battle this weekend here across the Deep South.

Look for mid 40s today, upper 50s tomorrow, and low 60s on Wednesday as the cold air scoots out of here for the time being. The warm-up will also progress eastward and will help to melt some of the snow from this weekend's historic blizzard.

Moisture begins to creep back northward, and I guess a shower is possible Wednesday and Thursday, but rain chances really begin to increase at the end of the week on Friday.

TO THE NORTH: A monster 1056 millibar high shows up over western Canada, and begins to drop southward into the U.S. this week. Brutally cold air moves into the northern states, and the Arctic front will ultimately become parallel to the upper air flow across the southern states, and the toughest part of the forecast today is figuring out where the front stops late this week. North of the front, a nasty ice storm is possible as warm, moist air rides over a shallow layer of very cold air near the surface.

MODELS SAY: The American GFS model suggests the front comes to a halt somewhere around I-40, up in Tennessee. This would mean rain for Alabama late Friday and Saturday as a wave moves along the front. The ice would be in Tennessee or Kentucky.

However, the NOGAPS and the JMA (Japanese) models suggest the front moves down into North Alabama, which might bring some chance of ice, or at least a wintry mix, to somebody around here on Saturday or Saturday night.

Logic would probably suggest the best chance of ice with this first wave will be north of us, over Tennessee and Kentucky, with rain here Friday into Saturday. But I will say the JMA and the NOGAPS sure pegged this last event way before the GFS even had a clue.

That Arctic front will just hang around into next week with waves moving along it, making for a very difficult forecast pattern down here. North of the front, very cold air and occasional ice threats will rule, while south of the front wet and warmer weather will be the story. Who gets what? Stay tuned.

PIX: I posted a bunch of snow pictures here on the blog over the weekend... scroll down to see them. Thanks to all of the viewers who took the time to send them in.

STORM ALERT 2006: We are coming to Talladega this Thursday night... we will be at the Ritz Theatre and the show begins at 7:00. Come early to meet us and get a good seat!

LONG DISTANCE HATE MAIL: Wow... we received this note over the weekend:

"Last night at 11:30pm your weather team predicted 8 to 12 inches for my area Central New Jersey, well I went outside at 8am and we accumulated 24 inches without any wind gusts and all the other channels are now predicting 5 to 8 more inches in the tri-state area. so how could a prediction of 8 to 12 be so wrong."

The local bashers we have on this blog should be proud of this guy! I actually am not sure what is talking about... I don't recall anyone making providing forecasts for New Jersey on the blog, but thats OK.

I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 3:30 this afternoon...

The only snow showers still in progress over Alabama at 3:30 am were over Clay County in East Central Alabama and over the Extreme NE corner of the state.

They were moving toward the SE.

Scattered snow showers continue very early on this Monday morning. They were mainly over North and East Alabama and moving toward the SE.

Most of the snowflakes are not reaching the ground.

We have heard of no significant problems.

The little batch of snow showers that moved SE across Jefferson County, now fading over Shelby County

Radar shows a better chance of snow showers over Clay, Randolph and Cleburne Counties in East Central Alabama.

Still other snow showers were indicated by radar in North Alabama from about Guntersville and Hartselle northward to the Tennessee border. The "best" snow shower was indicated north of Huntsville.

Everything moving toward the southeast...

11:08 pm...light snow flurries in Crestline Village

11:10 pm...John Oldshue reports flurries "coming down good" at the ABC 3340 Weather Office in Riverchase

A few tiny flakes about the size of gnats in NE Trussville. I feel embarrassed to even mention them

Chuck Biddinger reports a few tiny flakes in Roebuck. "I stayed up for this" he asks