Don’t know about you, but I am getting a little tired of this very dry and very warm weather. Fall is my favorite season (longtime readers are well aware of that), and I am truly looking forward to the golden days of October that feature days with a bright, cobalt blue sky and crisp nights that get us well down in the 40s. On those kind of days visibilities are excellent; you get on top of Mt. Cheaha and you think you should be able to see Birmingham to the west and Atlanta to the east.

Autumn officially arrives this year at 5:23 p.m. on Thursday, September 22. That is when the sun is directly over the equator on the journey southward, and we have approximately 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of darkness. The average high here drops to 80 degrees, and the average low 58 degrees, by the end of September. It has been as cold as 37 degrees during September; that was recorded on September 30, 1967.

The average date of the first freeze in Birmingham is November 8, but freezing temperatures have been recorded as early as October 18, 1948.

Looking ahead, the latest computer model runs don’t suggest any really major change to significantly cool temperatures over the next 7 to 10 days. There is some suggestion that a nice batch of cool air might flood the southeast U.S. toward the end of the month, which should get most places well down in the 50s. Maybe even some 40s over north Alabama.

People all the time ask if I think the winter ahead will be cold or mild. My answer is very simple: I don’t know. Long range outlooks are rarely accurate, and for now I don’t see any clues that offer evidence one way or another. I usually have a general opinion by the time we get to late October.

Spaeking of late October, I notice Halloween stuff is up in all of the stores now, so guess fall weather can't be that far away...

At time of last advisory (7 pm, CDT) Ophelia was centered near latitude 32.7N, longitude 78.2W. Translation: That is about 110 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina. She was moving toward the NNW ever so slowly at about 3 mph. A turn to the north is expected on Wednesday but look for some erratic motion.

WINDS AND PRESSURE
Sustained at 75 mph with higher gusts.
Lowest pressure 985 millibars or 29.09 inches
Ophelia is a Catagory One hurricane

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
Hurricane Warning from South Santee River, S.C., to Oregin Inlet, N.C.
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm warning extends north to North Carolina-Virginia border.
Tropical Storm Watch north of the North Carolina-Virginia border to to Cape Charles Light, Virginia.

RAINFALL
6 to 10 inches over Extreme NE South Carolina and Eastern North Carolina
15 inch isolated amounts possible over Eastern North Carolina

TORNADOES
Isolated spinoff tornadoes possible Eastern North Carolina tonight and Wednesday.

FORECAST MOVEMENT
NHC track forecast is for the center to move along the North Carolina Coast later Wednesday and Wednesday night. After passing near Cape Hatteras, center should go over water and remain offshore. Seas of 11 to 17 feet expected North Carolina coastal areas.

RECENT SPOT REPORTS FROM THE AREA
Wilmington...cloudy, wind NE, gusts 29 mph
Frying Pan Shoals...wind east 45, gusts 58 mph
Charleston...cloudy, wind 16, gusts 29 mph
Myrtle Beach...light rain, wind north 23, gusts to 32 mph
Downtown Charleston Coast Guard Station...wind gusts to 44 mph
Arthur Ravenel Bridge...gusts 45 mph
Edisto Buoy No. 41004...wind gusting to 69 mph

WTNT31 KNHC 132123
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

She is still a tropical storm, but a strong one. She could reach minimal hurricane force later.

At 4pm, CDT, she was centered 110 miles east of Charleston and also 110 miles south of Wilmington, N. C.

Movement...a very slow 4 mph toward the NNW. (You can walk that fast)

Highest sustained winds 70 mph.

FORECAST
Latest official NHC track forecast is for Ophelia to move directly along the North Carolina Coast Wednesday. After reaching the Cape Hatteras area, she is expected to go offshore and remain in the Atlantic until passing east of SE Canada Sunday.

RAINFALL
As much as 6 to 10 inches possible over NE South Carolina and Eastern North Carolina. Isolated spinoff tornadoes also possible for those areas.

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

For most Alabama towns, today is the 14th day in a row without a drop of rain. And, yes, we are looking far and wide for rain but not having much luck finding any in the plethora of model output here.

We will continue to mention a few isolated showers on Thursday and Friday as a front slips through, but with very limited moisture and no upper support, most places won't get any beneficial rain.

The weekend ahead will be dry with temperatures cooling slightly; highs in the 85 to 88 degree range, and lows between 60 and 64.

A strong upper trough will develop over eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. in the September 20-22 period (if the 12Z GFS is correct), but the upper ridge holds down here and the latest run shows very little rain.

Then, in the September 25-27 time frame a long wave trough forms over the eastern half of the nation, which has the potential to bring in some very cool air at the end of the month, but unfortunately this run shows little rain with the frontal passage.

Bottom line is that the 12Z GFS offers little hope for a big rain event for the next 15 days around here. Guess we will get a little taste of living in a desert.

TROPICS: Ole Ophelia just keeps hanging around off the coast of the Carolinas. Latest recon data shows 989 mb and max flight level winds of 70 knots as of this writing, so it is just under hurricane force. Models agree nicely now with the NHC track; the system moves over the North Carolina coast tomorrow, and then out to sea later in the week. Lots of wind and rain for the upper South Carolina, and all of the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks during the next 36 to 48 hours.

Elsewhere the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet; I guess the wave to watch is the one near 8N/20W... a long way out there but in a prime position to develop and make the journey all the way across to the Caribbean.

And, the Gulf continues to recharge after Katrina's visit a couple of weeks ago... we notice sea surface temperatures are headed back toward the upper 80s now.

Looking forward to speaking to my friends at the Bagley Jr. High PTA tonight up in the far northwest part of Jefferson county.

Also... need to mention that a code orange air quality alert is in effect for the Birmingham metro tomorrow (Wednesday) for particulate pollution...

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Today should be the 14th day in a row with no rain for most Alabama communities as the long dry spell continues. Highs today should be in the low 90s, about five to eight degrees above normal for this time of the year. Look for similar conditions tomorrow.

We will continue to mention a few isolated showers or storms on Thursday and Friday as a surface front approaches from the north, but with only limited moisture and little upper air support, beneficial or widespread rain is not likely at all. The weekend ahead at this time looks dry.

The GFS is offering a little hope for some rain in the September 22-25 time frame as a long wave trough has shown up over the eastern U.S. I won't buy into that until we see it in future runs. We sure need to get the cobwebs out of the rain buckets across Alabama.

TROPICS: Ophelia continues to spin off the coast of the Carolinas. Latest NHC track takes the system slowly northward across the Outer Banks of North Carolina tomorrow and Thursday as a minimal hurricane, and then slowly out to sea at the end of the week.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is rather quiet at this time... although a nice little wave is coming off the coast of Africa this morning.

You might note from the time of this post I am actually writing this around midnight Monday night as we are back on the Monday Night Football routine through the fall and winter. Nice game tonight with Atlanta holding back Philadelphia 14 to 10...

Will have the next discussion and video update ready by 3:30 today...