Some quick thoughts tonight...
In scanning the inbox and comment section of the blog this evening... I am always amazed at the people who get so worked up if our forecast mentions just a threat of snow or anything out of the ordinary.
Those people seemingly want us to forecast the "partly cloudy, highs in the 50s, low in the 30s" dribble every day in the extended periods, like you find on many web sites. Yes, that is "normal" for December. But, those are simply averages, and our weather here is rarely "normal" any time of the year, except for summer.
Sure, we could go the safe route and forecast "partly sunny, highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s" in the 3 to 7 day time frame. Nobody would notice, and the product would be pretty much worthless. That is carving a weather forecast down to "consensus".
I love what Margaret Thatcher says about consensus:
"To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects."
If I think highs will be in the 50s and lows in the 30s, I will say it here. If I think we will have a winter storm threat, I will say it here. My job is very simple... to tell you what I think will happen based on science. I refuse to get down to a "consensus" level where everything I believe is tossed out and the forecast is worthless. But, for whatever reason those are the forecasts that never generate nasty e-mail messages. CONSENSUS. No one objects.
Consensus is also the reason so many people are afraid to say "Merry Christmas" this time of the year.
Enough of the soapbox... we are watching the 00Z runs come in this evening. Will have the regularly scheduled post and video by tomorrow morning at 7:00!
Consensus Or Accuracy?
December 13, 2005, 9:54 pmLate Afternoon Note
December 13, 2005, 5:38 pm
The 18Z run of the GFS is in... and HOPE is back in a big way. A major storm Tuesday of next week now is back on the GFS in the northern Gulf with winter storm potential for PARTS of the deep south. Way to early to be specific... but Hope is NOT lost! This is the solution I expect. And, expect more model flips and flops in the days ahead, but we stay the course.
More later...
More later...
A Good Soaking Ahead
December 13, 2005, 3:21 pm
The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Today's discussion is almost like a soap opera, if we use the storm names from the morning post.
Al is the easiest to forecast. Bob will brings a bothersome forecast situation to the northern quarter of the state this weekend, and is Hope lost?
We really do need to get Al through here before we can really deal with Bob and Hope with any super detail...
AL: Storm number one will bring a soaking rain to the state late tomorrow, tomorrow night, and early Thursday. The NAM extraction now shows a whopping 2.17" of rain for Birmingham from this system. A little thunder will be possible over south Alabama tomorrow night as the lifted index goes negative.
The bulk of the rain should come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 7:00 a.m. Thursday.
BOB: Storm number two rolls in here over the weekend. Looks like the deepest moisture will be over south Alabama, but some precipitation is surely possible over the northern counties of the state as well, mainly Saturday night. The 12Z GFS shows the freezing line at 5,000 feet near Birmingham, so we still could see a few snow flakes over the northern part of the state from this system.
Still looks like the best chance of snow flakes will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden Saturday night and early Sunday. Precipitation in this region should be relatively light. We will fine tune all of this once Al is out of the way.
Sunday and Monday should be pretty cold in the wake of the system. We will struggle to get out of the 30s on Monday; the GFS MOS has a high of 41 for Birmingham. And, that usually has a warm bias.
HOPE: You know, in the event the wave that will be Bob and the wave that will be Hope phase up, guess we will be dealing with Bob Hope?
The 12Z European is trending toward the GFS... with a solution that backs off on the idea of a major winter storm for the deep south. However, you can't ignore the strong wave rotating through here on Tuesday. The GFS is pretty dry and really isn't spitting out much precipitation (although the MOS has a POP of 53 percent for Tuesday). I still think the idea of a third wave bring a wintry weather threat to parts of the deep south Tuesday or Wednesday of next week still has some merit. In my opinion, hope is not lost just yet.
Look for the next map discussion video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... and be sure and read J.B.'s posts below about December weather in years past. Amazing stuff...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Today's discussion is almost like a soap opera, if we use the storm names from the morning post.
Al is the easiest to forecast. Bob will brings a bothersome forecast situation to the northern quarter of the state this weekend, and is Hope lost?
We really do need to get Al through here before we can really deal with Bob and Hope with any super detail...
AL: Storm number one will bring a soaking rain to the state late tomorrow, tomorrow night, and early Thursday. The NAM extraction now shows a whopping 2.17" of rain for Birmingham from this system. A little thunder will be possible over south Alabama tomorrow night as the lifted index goes negative.
The bulk of the rain should come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 7:00 a.m. Thursday.
BOB: Storm number two rolls in here over the weekend. Looks like the deepest moisture will be over south Alabama, but some precipitation is surely possible over the northern counties of the state as well, mainly Saturday night. The 12Z GFS shows the freezing line at 5,000 feet near Birmingham, so we still could see a few snow flakes over the northern part of the state from this system.
Still looks like the best chance of snow flakes will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden Saturday night and early Sunday. Precipitation in this region should be relatively light. We will fine tune all of this once Al is out of the way.
Sunday and Monday should be pretty cold in the wake of the system. We will struggle to get out of the 30s on Monday; the GFS MOS has a high of 41 for Birmingham. And, that usually has a warm bias.
HOPE: You know, in the event the wave that will be Bob and the wave that will be Hope phase up, guess we will be dealing with Bob Hope?
The 12Z European is trending toward the GFS... with a solution that backs off on the idea of a major winter storm for the deep south. However, you can't ignore the strong wave rotating through here on Tuesday. The GFS is pretty dry and really isn't spitting out much precipitation (although the MOS has a POP of 53 percent for Tuesday). I still think the idea of a third wave bring a wintry weather threat to parts of the deep south Tuesday or Wednesday of next week still has some merit. In my opinion, hope is not lost just yet.
Look for the next map discussion video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... and be sure and read J.B.'s posts below about December weather in years past. Amazing stuff...
The Great New Year's Eve Alabama Snowstorm
December 13, 2005, 10:53 am
Quite a bit of interest in that event lately. Here is the lowdown:
It happened on December 31, 1963
A low pressure area had formed in the South Gulf of Mexico and moved northeast toward the Florida Peninsula. Naturally, it spread a lot of moist air inland. Meanwhile, cold air was spreading into the Southeast from the north.
That spells snow.
9 inches blanketed New Orleans, their biggest snow of the century.
On the Mississippi Coast, 10.5 inches at Bay St. Louis. In East Central Mississippi, Meridian was smothered under a whopping 15 inches of snow!
It became known as the "New Year's Eve Snowstorm. Actually it spilled over into the early part of New Years Day, 1964.
In Alabama, almost all of the state was covered with snow except the Southeast from about Troy southeastward. Some amounts:
8 inches at Birmingham Airport
14 inches in the Von Dales area of Northeast Birmingham
17 inches at Huntsville
19 inches at Florence
14 inches in West Central Alabama, South Pickens to North Choctaw County
5 inches in North Mobile County
10 inches in East Central Alabama from Talladega to Heflin
Numerous people became stranded at New Year's Eve parties and had to spend the night with their hosts. Lot of people had to sleep on the floor. Some of them became "house guests" for two days or more.
At that time, the U.S. Weather Bureau was at Birmingham Airport. I lived two air miles away in East Lake. The person that was supposed to come in at midnight became stranded. They called me to come to work. I had to drive around numerous stranded automobiles between East Lake and the Airport, but I made it okay.
Later that morning one of the forecasters, who was supposed to come to work at 4:00, tried repeatedly to get out of the hilly terrain in the Von Dale section of NE Birmingham. He reported 14 inches of snow on the ground. His problem was he was driving a Volkswagen beatle. Every time he tired to go forward, the front of his car would plow under the snow.
Up in NW Alabama, about 21 inches of snow fell at Florence, but there was only 19 inches on the ground at one time. Up until that time, it was a record for the entire state.
This snowstorm especially stands out because it happened when so many people were looking forward to the holiday and instead got snowbound.
Anybody else old enough to remember this historic storm except me?
If so, I would love to hear of your experience so I could add it to my file on that great storm. Especially if you became stranded.
While the snow word is flying around, let's look at two other notable North Alabama snowstorms:
FEBRUARY 15, 1958
There was 16 inches of snow on the ground at Haleyville in NW Alabama's Winston County. Up until that time, that was the most recorded in Alabama in a 24-hour period.
FEBRUARY 13-18, 1960
Exactly two years after the 1958 storm, as much as 18 inches of snow was on the ground at one time at Moulton in Lawrence County. That was a statewide record that held until the 19 inches fell at Florence in the New Year's Eve snowstorm of 1963.
It happened on December 31, 1963
A low pressure area had formed in the South Gulf of Mexico and moved northeast toward the Florida Peninsula. Naturally, it spread a lot of moist air inland. Meanwhile, cold air was spreading into the Southeast from the north.
That spells snow.
9 inches blanketed New Orleans, their biggest snow of the century.
On the Mississippi Coast, 10.5 inches at Bay St. Louis. In East Central Mississippi, Meridian was smothered under a whopping 15 inches of snow!
It became known as the "New Year's Eve Snowstorm. Actually it spilled over into the early part of New Years Day, 1964.
In Alabama, almost all of the state was covered with snow except the Southeast from about Troy southeastward. Some amounts:
8 inches at Birmingham Airport
14 inches in the Von Dales area of Northeast Birmingham
17 inches at Huntsville
19 inches at Florence
14 inches in West Central Alabama, South Pickens to North Choctaw County
5 inches in North Mobile County
10 inches in East Central Alabama from Talladega to Heflin
Numerous people became stranded at New Year's Eve parties and had to spend the night with their hosts. Lot of people had to sleep on the floor. Some of them became "house guests" for two days or more.
At that time, the U.S. Weather Bureau was at Birmingham Airport. I lived two air miles away in East Lake. The person that was supposed to come in at midnight became stranded. They called me to come to work. I had to drive around numerous stranded automobiles between East Lake and the Airport, but I made it okay.
Later that morning one of the forecasters, who was supposed to come to work at 4:00, tried repeatedly to get out of the hilly terrain in the Von Dale section of NE Birmingham. He reported 14 inches of snow on the ground. His problem was he was driving a Volkswagen beatle. Every time he tired to go forward, the front of his car would plow under the snow.
Up in NW Alabama, about 21 inches of snow fell at Florence, but there was only 19 inches on the ground at one time. Up until that time, it was a record for the entire state.
This snowstorm especially stands out because it happened when so many people were looking forward to the holiday and instead got snowbound.
Anybody else old enough to remember this historic storm except me?
If so, I would love to hear of your experience so I could add it to my file on that great storm. Especially if you became stranded.
While the snow word is flying around, let's look at two other notable North Alabama snowstorms:
FEBRUARY 15, 1958
There was 16 inches of snow on the ground at Haleyville in NW Alabama's Winston County. Up until that time, that was the most recorded in Alabama in a 24-hour period.
FEBRUARY 13-18, 1960
Exactly two years after the 1958 storm, as much as 18 inches of snow was on the ground at one time at Moulton in Lawrence County. That was a statewide record that held until the 19 inches fell at Florence in the New Year's Eve snowstorm of 1963.
by J.B. Elliott
in Winter Weather
It Can Get Very Cold in December
December 13, 2005, 10:11 am
Did you know that 43 years ago this morning, December 13, 1962, the temperature was sitting on 1 above zero in Birmingham?
The day before, December 12, it was 4 above.
Probably the most interesting thing about that severe cold was the high of only 13 on December 14.
That is the coldest daytime high ever in Birmingham.
The day before, December 12, it was 4 above.
Probably the most interesting thing about that severe cold was the high of only 13 on December 14.
That is the coldest daytime high ever in Birmingham.
by J.B. Elliott
in Winter Weather
A Trio Of Trouble
December 13, 2005, 7:24 am
The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I encourage you to scroll down and read Dr. William Gray's comments... finally a voice of reason in a sea of "global warming" insanity.
And, beware... I am writing this on less than three hours sleep courtesy of a LONG Monday night football game last night on ABC 33/40. It didn't get home until after 1:00 a.m. You might want to use this with caution! But, then again, I rarely get enough sleep anyway....
Three storms, or potential storms, on the horizon. Lets take them one at a time.
STORM NUMBER ONE (lets name the storms this morning... who not... lets call storm number one AL): Al will bring a cold, soaking rain to Alabama tomorrow and Thursday. Yep, a nasty little ice event should unfold for the western Carolinas in the wedge, and there is no doubt the colder air could reach the Alabama/Georgia border, but even for Cherokee and Cleburne counties we don't expect any freezing rain problems.
Temperatures will be very tough to deal with tomorrow; the high in Cedar Bluff might be 39, while Tuscaloosa reaches 55. And, some pretty decent rain totals are likely; models are suggesting amounts between 1.00 and 1.50 inch here. There might even be enough instability over south Alabama for some thunder; the lifted index goes negative down there.
The rain will end early in the day Thursday as yet another coastal low rolls up the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Looks like we stay in the 40s all day Thursday with nice CAA going on (cold air advection).
STORM NUMBER TWO (how about BOB for this one): Bob will arrive this weekend and will bring some headaches for weather forecasters, and drivers over parts of the deep south. You can't ignore cold air seeping in here from the big Arctic high to the north, and critical thickness values over far north Alabama.
Looks like the best chance of snow from Bob will come along and north of U.S. 278 Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. For now, the I-20 corridor will probably deal with a cold rain.
But, longtime readers know the deal. Lets take the storms ONE AT A TIME. We need to get through Al before we really can forecast Bob with any accurate detail.
STORM NUMBER THREE (HMMM... lets use HOPE... need a female name in the mix, and this is what the snow lovers will have when it comes to the system): Hope doesn't even show up on the 06Z run of the GFS... but the European offers great promise for Hope sometime next week in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.
Actually the 06Z GFS does show a strong wave diving down the back side of the trough, but no phasing with the southern stream on the 06Z run. The 00Z run does show a significant winter storm threat for the deep south centered on Wednesday of next week.
We don't want to get hung up on run to run changes so early in the game. I still believe that Hope will indeed bring a wintry weather threat to much of the deep south. The key word is THREAT here. No forecast yet... just too early in the game.
I have some brilliant weather people together on a constant Instant Message (IM) conference... I will pick their brains this morning, take a nap, review the 12Z guidance, and have the next discussion and video here by 3:30 this afternoon....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I encourage you to scroll down and read Dr. William Gray's comments... finally a voice of reason in a sea of "global warming" insanity.
And, beware... I am writing this on less than three hours sleep courtesy of a LONG Monday night football game last night on ABC 33/40. It didn't get home until after 1:00 a.m. You might want to use this with caution! But, then again, I rarely get enough sleep anyway....
Three storms, or potential storms, on the horizon. Lets take them one at a time.
STORM NUMBER ONE (lets name the storms this morning... who not... lets call storm number one AL): Al will bring a cold, soaking rain to Alabama tomorrow and Thursday. Yep, a nasty little ice event should unfold for the western Carolinas in the wedge, and there is no doubt the colder air could reach the Alabama/Georgia border, but even for Cherokee and Cleburne counties we don't expect any freezing rain problems.
Temperatures will be very tough to deal with tomorrow; the high in Cedar Bluff might be 39, while Tuscaloosa reaches 55. And, some pretty decent rain totals are likely; models are suggesting amounts between 1.00 and 1.50 inch here. There might even be enough instability over south Alabama for some thunder; the lifted index goes negative down there.
The rain will end early in the day Thursday as yet another coastal low rolls up the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Looks like we stay in the 40s all day Thursday with nice CAA going on (cold air advection).
STORM NUMBER TWO (how about BOB for this one): Bob will arrive this weekend and will bring some headaches for weather forecasters, and drivers over parts of the deep south. You can't ignore cold air seeping in here from the big Arctic high to the north, and critical thickness values over far north Alabama.
Looks like the best chance of snow from Bob will come along and north of U.S. 278 Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. For now, the I-20 corridor will probably deal with a cold rain.
But, longtime readers know the deal. Lets take the storms ONE AT A TIME. We need to get through Al before we really can forecast Bob with any accurate detail.
STORM NUMBER THREE (HMMM... lets use HOPE... need a female name in the mix, and this is what the snow lovers will have when it comes to the system): Hope doesn't even show up on the 06Z run of the GFS... but the European offers great promise for Hope sometime next week in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.
Actually the 06Z GFS does show a strong wave diving down the back side of the trough, but no phasing with the southern stream on the 06Z run. The 00Z run does show a significant winter storm threat for the deep south centered on Wednesday of next week.
We don't want to get hung up on run to run changes so early in the game. I still believe that Hope will indeed bring a wintry weather threat to much of the deep south. The key word is THREAT here. No forecast yet... just too early in the game.
I have some brilliant weather people together on a constant Instant Message (IM) conference... I will pick their brains this morning, take a nap, review the 12Z guidance, and have the next discussion and video here by 3:30 this afternoon....
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