Sunday night The Weather Channel will present the first in a series of shows called, “It Could Happen Tomorrow.” Incidents such as another San Francisco Earthquake or an F5 tornado striking Dallas will be profiled in the series. We have discussed in this forum what would happen if a swarm of tornadoes raked the Dallas area. The death toll could be in the hundreds or even thousands.

Tonight’s episode will be about what would happen if a Category Three hurricane struck New York City. Unthinkable, you say? Well, the 1938 Long Island Express begs to differ. The hurricane brought tremendous devastation to Long Island and parts of Rhode Island and Connecticut in September 1938. If the same storm struck less than 100 miles to the west today, the devastation would be catastrophic.

Another devastating hurricane struck in and around the general New York City area in 1788. If the same hurricane struck just west of the city today, tremendous damage would result. In 1893, a hurricane struck the area where Kennedy Airport is located with top winds of 90 mph. This same storm today would be devastating.

The Weather Channel series was ready for airing last summer. The initial episode was shelved. It’s subject: the vulnerability of New Orleans to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Katrina turned theory into fact on August 29th. Producers say the show is designed to stimulate preparation. New Orleans has had on the job training now.

The Saturday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Chilly start to the day as clouds have cleared all but the northern and northeast sections and a part of east central Alabama early this morning. Today is one of those days that will be deceptive as a sunny sky will make you think it is nice outside but once you step into that cold air it will hit you if you are not dressed for it. Also with a good stiff wind it will feel even colder.

With clear skies tonight we should have good radiational cooling with lows Sunday morning in the 20s for just about everyone. But the warmup begins Sunday as we climb an additional 10 to 15 degrees reaching the upper 50s and then into the 60s for the start of the work week.

Our next system will bring a stormy start to the week with good chances for storms Monday night and Tuesday. This next system is somewhat stronger and a bit further south than the one yesterday, so severe weather will once again be a threat. There are still a number of uncertainities including how fast the Gulf atmosphere can modify and recover from yesterday's system. But it will be something to watch.

The deep upper trough does not get completely passed us until late Wednesday so there will continue to be rain chances for the first half of Wednesday.

And the progressive pattern remains well entrenched for us, so look for another round of storms on Saturday. However, the GFS forecast did not seem to be as strong with the Saturday system. Not much change in the longer range as we continue to see a series of upper level storm systems come by every two to three days. GFS is advertising the possibility of a change toward the end of the month with a deep trough - possibly becoming cut-off off the southwest coast of the US.

Hope you have a great weekend. Stay warm.

-Brian-