Summer Is Almost Here

The “official” arrival of summer in terms of astronomy is Tuesday of next week, June 21, at exactly 1:46 a.m. At that moment the sun will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer, and that will be our longest day in terms of the number of daylight hours. The sun will rise a little after 5:30 a.m., and set shortly after 8:00 p.m. At the North Pole, they will be in the middle of a six month day (daylight lasts 189 days up there!) , and in the southern hemisphere winter begins.

While our weather here certainly heats up in June, the hottest temperatures are usually found in August and September. The lag in air temperature behind the solar intensity peak is due to the use of much of the Spring solar energy to melt snow and ice, heat land surfaces and warm waters from their winter chill. In continental areas such as the Canadian Prairie Provinces and American Plains States, annual temperature cycle peaks from late July to early August, whereas in the Pacific Northwest, the warmest stretch of days annually occurs from late August to early September. That extra month is required to heat the cold Pacific waters offshore.

We consider “meteorological” summer as June, July, and August. But we always caution folks we can indeed have sizzling weather here in September. In fact, Alabama’s hottest temperature was recorded on September 5, 1925, when the mercury soared to 112 degrees at Centreville. Birmingham’s hottest temperature on record is 107 degrees, measured on July 29, 1930.

What will the summer of 2005 bring? The long range computer models still show no sign of any runaway heat in coming weeks; in fact it looks like yesterday and today could very well be the hottest days during June. Best guess now is that both temperatures and rainfall will be near normal. Of course, only time will tell!



3:20 p.m. Update

A quick update to the previous post...

The storm up in Marion county has dropped 0.42" of rain at our weathernet site at WERH radio in Hamilton.

And, the 90s have returned to Birmingham for the first time since August 28 of 2004. At 3:00, the Birmingham Airport reported 91 degrees with a heat index of 96. Must be June in Alabama!




Hot and Muggy

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

While a large percentage of Alabama is hot and dry again today, we are watching thunderstorms over Marion county up in northwest Alabama; a check of a webcam near Hamilton shows heavy rain and 0.08" of rain as of 3:07 p.m. This short line of storms is ahead of the long awaited June front, which will pass through tomorrow morning.

We note on the 12Z sounding from the Shelby County Airport very dry air continuing above 7,500 feet, so storms should remain very isolated this evening, and most Alabama communities will be rain-free through Friday.

Look for the mercury to head back up into the low 90s tomorrow, but the heat backs off a bit on Thursday and Friday, and humidity values will be lower. After a review of the 12Z model output, looks fairly safe to leave rain out of the forecast for Friday and most of the weekend ahead as a very highly amplified upper pattern helps to keep dry air over the deep south.

Toward the middle and end of next week, in the seven to ten day time frame, heights look to be lower and moisture higher, so afternoon thunderstorms should begin to increase at that point.

TROPICS: Still watching the mass of storms over the central Caribbean; seems to be fairly strong winds aloft over the region now which means any development will be slow. And, if something should blow up down there it should ultimately turn north, and then northeast before getting far into the Gulf of Mexico....



ABC 33/40 Afternoon Podcast for June 14 2005

The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Tuesday afternoon, June 14 is now being served by our RSS feed.

Want to subscribe to our free daily podcast audio weather forecast? Use this RSS feed in your podcast receiving program:

feeds.feedburner.com/Weathertalk


June Heat

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

First off, the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean still looks disornagized, but something might be brewing down there. If a depression or storm does indeed form, it will initially move northwest, but should ultimately turn northeast in response to the big upper trough developing along the eastern U.S. coast later this week. Of course, tropical systems can have a mind of their own so we will keep an eye on it.

HEATING UP: Birmingham should reach 90 today for the first time since August 28 of last year. Most places will see low 90s, and we do not have any rain in our formal forecast due to dry air in place. We will watch for storms that try to approach the northwest corner of the state, but I don't think they will make it this far south. A few isolated storms are possible tomorrow with a surface boundary (note I didn't use the words "cold front";) moving through, but coverage should be quite limited and most places will stay dry.

Thursday should be less humid and slightly cooler.

The forecast for Friday and the weekend is a little muddy; I went ahead late last night and bit on the idea of a broad cutoff upper low forming on top of us, but the latest model runs have backed off on the idea and look dry. So... lets just watch the next few runs come in and we can make adjustments as needed.

NEXT WEEK: I still think afternoon storms will be a little more active next week in response to lower heights and tropical moisture. The 00Z run of the GFS tries to move some kind of tropical system into Mobile Bay on Wednesday, but that is probably bogus.

Still no sign of any really runaway heat for the end of June. Today and tomorrow could very well be the hottest days of the month with low 90s around here...

PODCASTS: We normally do two daily audio podcasts here; I must confess I missed the afternoon feed yesterday. Jason Simpson usually posts the morning update by 5:00, and I try to have the afternoon update posted by 2:00. These are simply MP3 files you can play on your computer. It can also be automatically downloaded via RSS onto your computer, and then transferred to your portable MP3 player, like an iPod, when it docks with your computer. That way you can insert the forecast into your music when you want it. Pretty cool stuff. Use this RSS feed in your podcasting program to have it automatically downloaded:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/Weathertalk

Off to Hunter Street shortly; it was great seeing all of those kids yesterday. I am teaching in the summer Bible program called "Summer Quest", which has attracted over 1,000 kids. Amazing stuff...



ABC 33/40 Podcast for Tuesday Morning, June 14, 2005

The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Tuesday, June 14 is now being served by our RSS feed.

Want to subscribe to our free daily podcast audio weather forecast? Use this RSS feed in your podcast receiving program:

feeds.feedburner.com/Weathertalk


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