The National Weather Service Office in Birmingham, located at the Shelby County Airport between Alabaster and Calera, will host an open house this Saturday and Sunday, September 17 and 18, in conjunction with the Wings and Wheels Air and Auto Show at the airport. NWS meteorologists will be on hand each day from 10 AM to 5 PM to showcase how forecasts, watches, and warnings are created and to answer any and all weather questions. Come and see where and how Hurricane Katrina was tracked as it made its way across the Gulf of Mexico into Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. There will also be a charity bake sale held in conjunction with the NWS open house, with proceeds going toward the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina victims’ relief fund.
The NWS facility at the Shelby County Airport was opened in late 1993, and is across I-65 from the NEXRAD Doppler Radar site, which went into service in late spring 1994. You can see the big white radome on top of the radar tower as you drive along the interstate; to many it looks like a big “golf ball”. The radome protects the parabolic radar antenna inside the dome which is constantly spinning in all directions. The ABC 33/40 Doppler Radar site is also in Shelby county, but about 15 miles east of the NEXRAD site, on top of Double Oak Mountain. You can see our radome from U.S. 280 at the entrance to Highland Lakes.
Prior to moving to Shelby county, the Birmingham NWS operated from the 4th floor of the “11 West Oxmoor Road” building from 1971 to 1993. I have many fond memories of dropping by that office between the 6:00 and the 10:00 newscasts when I worked for Channel 13 back in the 1980s. My favorite visits came when the legendary J.B. Elliott was working the night shift; those “Hardee Parties” were something special. You would not believe the amount of food consumed!
NWS Open House This Weekend
September 14, 2005, 8:24 pm
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
A Late Look at Ophelia
September 14, 2005, 8:22 pm
Around 9:30 tonight, CDT, the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was about 30 miles south of Cape Lookout, N.C. The eye will pass over or very near Cape Lookout. The north eyewall will continue to pass over Coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks tonight and much of Thursday.
Some late notes:
* Significant flooding in Wilmington
* Wind gusts 70 mph on Cedar Island at 9:10 pm
* Seven-foot storm surge (soundside) at Salter Path with three feet of water in the Crab Shack Restaurant
* Four-foot storm surge at Morehood City
* Six-foot storm surge at Beaufort with four feet of water on Front Street
* At one point, Cape Lookout had sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts to 92
SPOT REPORTS
Cape Hatteras...light rain, wind NE 32, gusts 41
Wilmington...cloudy, wind NW 30, gusts 43
Cape Lookout...wind east 60, gusts 67
Diamond Shoals...wind SE 47 with 17 foot waves
Some late notes:
* Significant flooding in Wilmington
* Wind gusts 70 mph on Cedar Island at 9:10 pm
* Seven-foot storm surge (soundside) at Salter Path with three feet of water in the Crab Shack Restaurant
* Four-foot storm surge at Morehood City
* Six-foot storm surge at Beaufort with four feet of water on Front Street
* At one point, Cape Lookout had sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts to 92
SPOT REPORTS
Cape Hatteras...light rain, wind NE 32, gusts 41
Wilmington...cloudy, wind NW 30, gusts 43
Cape Lookout...wind east 60, gusts 67
Diamond Shoals...wind SE 47 with 17 foot waves
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Ophelia Spins and Spins
September 14, 2005, 2:46 pm
Instead of us repeating all of the hurricane advisories and discussions here, please check in on the 3340 tropical weather page. It will show you all the latest advisories, discussions, tracking map, radar links, you name it. This link will take you quickly and directly to it:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
(Also please scan down to earlier posts)
SOME LATE NOTES
* Hurricane Ophelia continues to spin off the North carolina Coast. She is swinging spiral bands inland producing much rain and high winds.
* Burgaw, N.C., in Pender County, has received 6.65 inches of rain in less than three hours with a storm total of 8.85 inches.
* In Wilmingtion, the warehouse doors of the state port were blown off with observed wind gusts to 80 mph. The wind instruments there are at 60 feet.
* Lots of flash-flooding Wilmington area.
* NWS Forecast Office at Newport/Wakefield lost commercial power and their backup generator failed. At least four weather radio transmitters in the storm area off the air.
SPOT REPORTS AT 4 PM EDT
Fayetteville...light rain, wind north 21, gusts 30 mph
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind east 28, gusts 43
Cherry Point...heavy rain, wind east 28, gusts 41
Beaufort...driving rain, wind east at 30, gusts 47
Frying Pan Shoals...wind west at 57, gusts 67
Wilmington...cloudy, wind north 37, gusts 48...one hour ago they had gusts to 68 mph.
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
(Also please scan down to earlier posts)
SOME LATE NOTES
* Hurricane Ophelia continues to spin off the North carolina Coast. She is swinging spiral bands inland producing much rain and high winds.
* Burgaw, N.C., in Pender County, has received 6.65 inches of rain in less than three hours with a storm total of 8.85 inches.
* In Wilmingtion, the warehouse doors of the state port were blown off with observed wind gusts to 80 mph. The wind instruments there are at 60 feet.
* Lots of flash-flooding Wilmington area.
* NWS Forecast Office at Newport/Wakefield lost commercial power and their backup generator failed. At least four weather radio transmitters in the storm area off the air.
SPOT REPORTS AT 4 PM EDT
Fayetteville...light rain, wind north 21, gusts 30 mph
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind east 28, gusts 43
Cherry Point...heavy rain, wind east 28, gusts 41
Beaufort...driving rain, wind east at 30, gusts 47
Frying Pan Shoals...wind west at 57, gusts 67
Wilmington...cloudy, wind north 37, gusts 48...one hour ago they had gusts to 68 mph.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Watching Developments To The West AND East
September 14, 2005, 2:12 pm
The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Even though we are in the 15th day of a long dry spell, we have plenty to discuss today.
Check out the video for an update on major solar activity that might set the stage for a big display of the northern lights tonight... with this intense activity we might even see something as far south as north Alabama. Learn more on http://www.spaceweather.com
We actually have a little lightning showing up on the lightning network over central Mississipi as I write this, and a tornado watch is coming out for parts of Texas and Oklahoma where a moderate risk of severe weather is in place. Surely we will see a little rain with all of this action to the west.
The expected MCS (mesoscale convective system) that will form this afternoon around Wichita Falls should move to the east, and might try to reach the northwest corner of Alabama late tonight. I doubt if we see anything from this, and we will maintain a dry forecast tonight.
Another MCS should form tomorrow to the west, and again the best chance of significant rain will stay north of here. For now we will mention just an outside risk of any one spot getting wet tomorrow.
It could be that Friday will offer the best chance of scattered showers and storms as the front comes through. The model extraction from the 12Z runs includes a rain total of 0.10 from the NAM, and 0.12" from the GFS. Hopefully a few spots will have the dust settled for a brief time.
WEEKEND: A surge of dry air moves in for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like the cooler spots have a great chance of reaching the 55 to 59 degree range both Saturday and Sunday morning, with lows in the 60 to 64 degree range for most other places. Highs will be in the 80s, and the humidity will be low. Very comfortable conditions both Saturday and Sunday.
The dry weather should hold through much of next week.
THE LONG RANGE: We are still watching the GFS closely at the end of the month. Looks like we will have a high amplitude pattern, but the model changes the position of the trough on just about every run. The latest run (12Z) has the trough over the eastern U.S... with little rain here with the cold front. Quite a change from the 00Z run (see the morning discussion). One way or another the coldest air of the season so far will invade the northern U.S. Fun to see those low thickness values... a sign of the times. Maybe some of that chilly air will reach us by early October.
OPHELIA: See the posts below from J.B. on the latest with the hurricane nearing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Lots of wind and rain.
PHILLIPE? Looks like the wave around 9N/42W is getting better organized, and that might become tropical storm Phillipe down the road. It has a chance of getting into the Caribbean, but for now the models are all over the road. See the video for the latest....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Even though we are in the 15th day of a long dry spell, we have plenty to discuss today.
Check out the video for an update on major solar activity that might set the stage for a big display of the northern lights tonight... with this intense activity we might even see something as far south as north Alabama. Learn more on http://www.spaceweather.com
We actually have a little lightning showing up on the lightning network over central Mississipi as I write this, and a tornado watch is coming out for parts of Texas and Oklahoma where a moderate risk of severe weather is in place. Surely we will see a little rain with all of this action to the west.
The expected MCS (mesoscale convective system) that will form this afternoon around Wichita Falls should move to the east, and might try to reach the northwest corner of Alabama late tonight. I doubt if we see anything from this, and we will maintain a dry forecast tonight.
Another MCS should form tomorrow to the west, and again the best chance of significant rain will stay north of here. For now we will mention just an outside risk of any one spot getting wet tomorrow.
It could be that Friday will offer the best chance of scattered showers and storms as the front comes through. The model extraction from the 12Z runs includes a rain total of 0.10 from the NAM, and 0.12" from the GFS. Hopefully a few spots will have the dust settled for a brief time.
WEEKEND: A surge of dry air moves in for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like the cooler spots have a great chance of reaching the 55 to 59 degree range both Saturday and Sunday morning, with lows in the 60 to 64 degree range for most other places. Highs will be in the 80s, and the humidity will be low. Very comfortable conditions both Saturday and Sunday.
The dry weather should hold through much of next week.
THE LONG RANGE: We are still watching the GFS closely at the end of the month. Looks like we will have a high amplitude pattern, but the model changes the position of the trough on just about every run. The latest run (12Z) has the trough over the eastern U.S... with little rain here with the cold front. Quite a change from the 00Z run (see the morning discussion). One way or another the coldest air of the season so far will invade the northern U.S. Fun to see those low thickness values... a sign of the times. Maybe some of that chilly air will reach us by early October.
OPHELIA: See the posts below from J.B. on the latest with the hurricane nearing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Lots of wind and rain.
PHILLIPE? Looks like the wave around 9N/42W is getting better organized, and that might become tropical storm Phillipe down the road. It has a chance of getting into the Caribbean, but for now the models are all over the road. See the video for the latest....
HURRICANE OPHELIA--Early Afternoon Look
September 14, 2005, 12:24 pm
Instead of us repeating all of the hurricane advisories and discussions here, please check in on the 3340 tropical weather page. It will show you all the latest advisories, discussions, tracking map, you name it. This link will take you quickly and directly to it:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
(Also please scan down to earlier posts)
LATE NOTES
* In the last 15 minutes or so, numerous trees have been uprooted in the Wilmington area as wind gusts increased to over 70 mph in the general area. Lots of power lines down.
* Official observation from Wilmington Airport at 2 PM, EDT, had a peak gust of 67 mph.
* Wilmington Airport closed and will remain closed until at least 10 tomorrow morning
* Lots of power outages in SE North Carolina and roads washed out also.
* 5 to 9 inches of rain common so far today
SPOT REPORTS AT 2 PM EDT
Frying Pan Shoals...wind west 58, gusts 74
Cape Lookout, N.C.,...wind SE 47, gusts 54
Cape Hatteras...light rain, wind east at 30, gusts 38
Wilmington...light snow, wind north 40, gusts 67 mph (2.38 inches of rain last 6 hours)
NOTE...that light snow reported from Wilmington is in error of course. The automated observation equipment may think that blowing spray is snow. Not sure.
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
(Also please scan down to earlier posts)
LATE NOTES
* In the last 15 minutes or so, numerous trees have been uprooted in the Wilmington area as wind gusts increased to over 70 mph in the general area. Lots of power lines down.
* Official observation from Wilmington Airport at 2 PM, EDT, had a peak gust of 67 mph.
* Wilmington Airport closed and will remain closed until at least 10 tomorrow morning
* Lots of power outages in SE North Carolina and roads washed out also.
* 5 to 9 inches of rain common so far today
SPOT REPORTS AT 2 PM EDT
Frying Pan Shoals...wind west 58, gusts 74
Cape Lookout, N.C.,...wind SE 47, gusts 54
Cape Hatteras...light rain, wind east at 30, gusts 38
Wilmington...light snow, wind north 40, gusts 67 mph (2.38 inches of rain last 6 hours)
NOTE...that light snow reported from Wilmington is in error of course. The automated observation equipment may think that blowing spray is snow. Not sure.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Enhanced Severe Weather Risk
September 14, 2005, 11:56 am
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005
VALID 141640Z - 150045Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005
VALID 141640Z - 150045Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
Mid-day Look at Hurricane Ophelia--Updated at 11:30 am, CDT
September 14, 2005, 10:03 am
Instead of us repeating all of the hurricane advisories and discussions here, please check in on the 3340 tropical weather page. It will show you all the latest advisories, discussions, tracking map, you name it. This link will take you quickly and directly to it:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
(Also please scan down to earlier posts)
LATE REPORTS
* The Wilmington Morning Star reports that 25,231 customers are without power in Hanover County--mainly along the coast.
* 7,000 of 73,000 customers are without power in Southport, Oak Island, Leland, Belville and Holden Beach
* Wilmington Airport is now closed and will remain close until at least 10 am tomorrow (Thursday)
* NHC has just updated sustained winds to 85 mph.
* Thousands now without power in the SE part of North Carolina
* Roads also washed out in some areas
* North Carolina State Port North gate flooded with 8-12 inches of water.
* Intersection of Greenwich Road and Waltmoor in Wilmington impassable due to high water.
* Oak Island, N.C., trees down. (They had also received 9 inches of rain by mid-morning)
* 6.50 inches of rain in the community of Supply, N.C.
SPOT REPORTS
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind NE, gusts 35
New Bern, N.C.,...heavy rain, wind east 22, gusts 32
Wilmington...wind north 39, gusts 58 (visibility only one-half mile)
Fayetteville...steady rain, wind NE 23, gusts 30
Cape Lookout, N.C.,...wind SE 46, gusts 51
Diamond Shoals...wind SE 30, gusts 38 (11-foot waves)
SNOW
The automated weather station at Wilmington was reporting visibility only 1/2 mile in snow. I am sure the sensor is being fooled by possibly blowing spray and thinking it is snow.
* The very slow movement of Ophelia means that some communities will have hurricane force winds for a number of hours increasing the chance of damage and flooding.
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
(Also please scan down to earlier posts)
LATE REPORTS
* The Wilmington Morning Star reports that 25,231 customers are without power in Hanover County--mainly along the coast.
* 7,000 of 73,000 customers are without power in Southport, Oak Island, Leland, Belville and Holden Beach
* Wilmington Airport is now closed and will remain close until at least 10 am tomorrow (Thursday)
* NHC has just updated sustained winds to 85 mph.
* Thousands now without power in the SE part of North Carolina
* Roads also washed out in some areas
* North Carolina State Port North gate flooded with 8-12 inches of water.
* Intersection of Greenwich Road and Waltmoor in Wilmington impassable due to high water.
* Oak Island, N.C., trees down. (They had also received 9 inches of rain by mid-morning)
* 6.50 inches of rain in the community of Supply, N.C.
SPOT REPORTS
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind NE, gusts 35
New Bern, N.C.,...heavy rain, wind east 22, gusts 32
Wilmington...wind north 39, gusts 58 (visibility only one-half mile)
Fayetteville...steady rain, wind NE 23, gusts 30
Cape Lookout, N.C.,...wind SE 46, gusts 51
Diamond Shoals...wind SE 30, gusts 38 (11-foot waves)
SNOW
The automated weather station at Wilmington was reporting visibility only 1/2 mile in snow. I am sure the sensor is being fooled by possibly blowing spray and thinking it is snow.
* The very slow movement of Ophelia means that some communities will have hurricane force winds for a number of hours increasing the chance of damage and flooding.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Extra Notes and Spot Reports--HURRICANE OPHELIA
September 14, 2005, 8:39 am
PLEASE NOTE: Instead of us reposting all of the advisories and discussions here today, please check in on the 3340 tropical weather page. It will show you all the latest advisories, discussions, tracking map, you name it. This link will take you quickly and directly to it:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
Here on the blog, we will try to post additional spot reports and other notes that are not normally included in the advisories. We have a lot of people from the Carolinas that read this material.
(Also, scan down for earlier posts including the map and video discussion from James)
* Oak Island, N.C., has accumulated over 9 inches of rain so far from Ophelia.
* Based on a radar check from Wilmington Doppler Radar at 9:30 am CDT, Ophelia appears to be moving a bit more northward...but the NHC pointed out that she would have erratic movements. The outer edge of the eye is very near the SE North Carolina Coast and some of the stronger feeder bands are swirling onshore especially near Wilmington.
SPOT REPORTS AT 10 AM EDT (9 AM ALABAMA TIME)
Norfolk...partly sunny, wind SE 9, gusts 18
Virginia Beach...partly sunny, wind east 15
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind NE 26, gusts 32
Wilmington...driving rain, wind NE 40, gusts 56
Fayetteville, N.C.,...steady rain, wind NE 22, gusts 28
Myrtle Beach, S.C.,...rain, wind NW 23, gusts 37 (pressure rising)
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
Here on the blog, we will try to post additional spot reports and other notes that are not normally included in the advisories. We have a lot of people from the Carolinas that read this material.
(Also, scan down for earlier posts including the map and video discussion from James)
* Oak Island, N.C., has accumulated over 9 inches of rain so far from Ophelia.
* Based on a radar check from Wilmington Doppler Radar at 9:30 am CDT, Ophelia appears to be moving a bit more northward...but the NHC pointed out that she would have erratic movements. The outer edge of the eye is very near the SE North Carolina Coast and some of the stronger feeder bands are swirling onshore especially near Wilmington.
SPOT REPORTS AT 10 AM EDT (9 AM ALABAMA TIME)
Norfolk...partly sunny, wind SE 9, gusts 18
Virginia Beach...partly sunny, wind east 15
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind NE 26, gusts 32
Wilmington...driving rain, wind NE 40, gusts 56
Fayetteville, N.C.,...steady rain, wind NE 22, gusts 28
Myrtle Beach, S.C.,...rain, wind NW 23, gusts 37 (pressure rising)
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Supplementary Information, HURRICANE OPHELIA
September 14, 2005, 7:45 am
PLEASE NOTE: Instead of us reposting all of the advisories and discussions here today, please check in on the 3340 tropical weather page. It will show you all the latest advisories, discussions, tracking map, you name it. This link will take you quickly and directly to it:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
Here on the blog, we will try to post additional spot reports and other notes that are not normally included in the advisories. We have a lot of people from the Carolinas that read this material.
LATE NOTES:
* Gusts to 51 mph on Greenville Loop Road in Wilmington
* Oak Island, N.C., reports 5 inches of additional rain since midnight for a storm total of 9 inches so far.
* Southport, N.C., several large oak trees uprooted.
* At Carolina Beach, metal canopy over gas pump island at a service station blown off.
SPOT REPORTS AT 9 AM EDT
Virgina Beach...partly sunny, wind east 15
Kill Devil Hills, N.C.,...partly sunny, wind east 12, gusts 18
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind NE 26 sustained
Wilmington...driving rain, wind NE 36, gusts 52
Fayetteville, N.C.,...light rain, wind NE 15
Cape Lookout, N.C.,...wind ESE 41, gusts 47
Diamond Shoals, N.C.,...wind SE 28, gusts 34 (10-foot waves)
Beaufort, N.C.,...driving rain, wind SE 25, gusts 40
Cherry Point...wind east 22, gusts 28
All wind speeds in MPH
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html
Here on the blog, we will try to post additional spot reports and other notes that are not normally included in the advisories. We have a lot of people from the Carolinas that read this material.
LATE NOTES:
* Gusts to 51 mph on Greenville Loop Road in Wilmington
* Oak Island, N.C., reports 5 inches of additional rain since midnight for a storm total of 9 inches so far.
* Southport, N.C., several large oak trees uprooted.
* At Carolina Beach, metal canopy over gas pump island at a service station blown off.
SPOT REPORTS AT 9 AM EDT
Virgina Beach...partly sunny, wind east 15
Kill Devil Hills, N.C.,...partly sunny, wind east 12, gusts 18
Cape Hatteras...partly sunny, wind NE 26 sustained
Wilmington...driving rain, wind NE 36, gusts 52
Fayetteville, N.C.,...light rain, wind NE 15
Cape Lookout, N.C.,...wind ESE 41, gusts 47
Diamond Shoals, N.C.,...wind SE 28, gusts 34 (10-foot waves)
Beaufort, N.C.,...driving rain, wind SE 25, gusts 40
Cherry Point...wind east 22, gusts 28
All wind speeds in MPH
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Active Weather To The West
September 14, 2005, 4:53 am
The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
SPC has parts of west Texas and west Oklahoma under a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms today, with a slight risk extended eastward to western Tennessee and the northwest corner of Alabama. HMMM... is this April or September?
We do note a strong short wave coming through the southwest U.S. that is enhancing thunderstorm formation on the long surface front from from near Detroit to the Texas panhandle. There is a real chance some of these storms could reach the northwest corner of Alabama late today or tonight. I doubt if any rain reaches Birmingham before midnight.
If we get some rain, the best chance will come tomorrow or tomorrow night. Still, the WRF and the NAM suggest the best chance of getting wet will be north of I-59, especially over the Tennessee Valley. QPF values for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston are not very high; the NAM spits out 0.11" while the GFS shows 0.12" through 84 hours. But we will take what we can get. I still have concern many communities will miss the showers completely.
By Friday the upper support is long gone, and any showers should be quite isolated. Then, a fresh supply of dry air rolls in here for the weekend. Nights will be cooler; the GFS shows lows between 60 and 65 this weekend, and I expect the cooler spots will reach the 55 to 59 degree range both early Saturday and Sunday morning. The first part of next week looks dry as well.
SEPTEMBER 21-22: A powerful storm system moves across the northern U.S., but the GFS continues to suggest the ridge holds here across the south, and the bulk of the rain should stay north of us.
SEPTEMBER 28-30: The 00Z run of the GFS is showing a new solution, with a major trough developing over the western half of the nation. If this happens to be correct, that would open up the door for a good rain event here. And, the coldest air so far this season floods into the northwest U.S... with the potential for a major snowstorm across the northern Rockies. Now THAT is exciting.
OPHELIA: Lots of wind and rain for eastern North Carolina today and tomorrow as the minimal hurricane very slowly moves through the Outer Banks. The system will finally be swept out to sea late in the week as the westerlies take over.
Two fairly decent waves are seen out in the central and eastern Atlantic, but nothing organized at this point. I caution you the hurricane season is far from over... sea surface temps really don't begin to cool down until late October and November.
I will have the next video posted by 3:30 this afternoon today. Thanks to the Bagley Jr. High PTA for having me out last night... great job by the cheerleaders with that "James Spann" cheer. I need to take them with me on the road as a warm-up act!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
SPC has parts of west Texas and west Oklahoma under a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms today, with a slight risk extended eastward to western Tennessee and the northwest corner of Alabama. HMMM... is this April or September?
We do note a strong short wave coming through the southwest U.S. that is enhancing thunderstorm formation on the long surface front from from near Detroit to the Texas panhandle. There is a real chance some of these storms could reach the northwest corner of Alabama late today or tonight. I doubt if any rain reaches Birmingham before midnight.
If we get some rain, the best chance will come tomorrow or tomorrow night. Still, the WRF and the NAM suggest the best chance of getting wet will be north of I-59, especially over the Tennessee Valley. QPF values for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston are not very high; the NAM spits out 0.11" while the GFS shows 0.12" through 84 hours. But we will take what we can get. I still have concern many communities will miss the showers completely.
By Friday the upper support is long gone, and any showers should be quite isolated. Then, a fresh supply of dry air rolls in here for the weekend. Nights will be cooler; the GFS shows lows between 60 and 65 this weekend, and I expect the cooler spots will reach the 55 to 59 degree range both early Saturday and Sunday morning. The first part of next week looks dry as well.
SEPTEMBER 21-22: A powerful storm system moves across the northern U.S., but the GFS continues to suggest the ridge holds here across the south, and the bulk of the rain should stay north of us.
SEPTEMBER 28-30: The 00Z run of the GFS is showing a new solution, with a major trough developing over the western half of the nation. If this happens to be correct, that would open up the door for a good rain event here. And, the coldest air so far this season floods into the northwest U.S... with the potential for a major snowstorm across the northern Rockies. Now THAT is exciting.
OPHELIA: Lots of wind and rain for eastern North Carolina today and tomorrow as the minimal hurricane very slowly moves through the Outer Banks. The system will finally be swept out to sea late in the week as the westerlies take over.
Two fairly decent waves are seen out in the central and eastern Atlantic, but nothing organized at this point. I caution you the hurricane season is far from over... sea surface temps really don't begin to cool down until late October and November.
I will have the next video posted by 3:30 this afternoon today. Thanks to the Bagley Jr. High PTA for having me out last night... great job by the cheerleaders with that "James Spann" cheer. I need to take them with me on the road as a warm-up act!