Lets cut to the chase here. Everyone is asking me: “Will it snow at Christmas?”. My answer right now is: I don’t know. Sure, some of the models have shown a nice snowstorm at times right before Christmas, but there is absolutely no consistency, and no reason for us to jump on anything this far in advance. We might have a storm just before Christmas that offers only a cold rain. Or, the storm could stay well down in the Gulf not impacting us al all. But, for you snow lovers, you do have a chance. I should also mention there is some chance of a major blast of true Arctic air in here sometime during the last 7 days of the month if we can get a phased storm system over the eastern states which would allow the upper air winds to develop a true cross-polar connection. This would be the set-up like in 1983 and 1989 we discussed here yesterday. I stick with the line I have been using now for the last ten days or so: I will be very surprised if we do not have at least one threat of snow or ice before the end of December.

Speaking of snow, yesterday was the seventh anniversary of a big surprise snowstorm that impacted much of central Alabama and central Mississippi. On Sunday, December 14, 1997, a cold core upper low moved along the U.S. 80 corridor, and places like Demopolis and York wound up with over six inches of heavy, wet snow on the ground. And, this on a day when those of us in the weather office were forecasting only some light rain. That was a case of “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe”, as the system literally brought its own cold air through dynamic cooling from above, and we really had no clue this was going to happen until the change to snow happened over in Mississippi during the pre-dawn hours. Yet another reminder to expect the unexpected when it comes to winter weather around here. Lets get ready for a very interesting two weeks of weather!

Back in the saddle after a great trip up to Winston county this morning. Saw the entire student body at Lynn School... they were a great audience. Someone shared a picture of me in a local newspaper that was taken over 20 years ago when I visited Lynn School in the early 1980s (when I was at Channel 13). Most of the kids in that picture are now grown with their own kids in Lynn School. Guess I am on my second generation now!

Afternoon video is ready to go:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

How about that GFS accumulated snow chart that shows 4 inches at Montgomery on Christmas, and 2 inches at Birmingham! BUT, that is all voodoo this early in the game. Any specific snow event next week is way, way too early to call. Lets just say the weather will stay cold and unsettled for the rest of December, with at least one good snow threat likely sometime down the line. Maybe more than one.

Will be posting J.B.'s afternoon forecast package in a few minutes over on the seven day discussion and forecast page. I don't expect much change; temperatures this afternoon are right on the money (after a bust this morning by six degrees or so), and most places will wind up somewhere between 15 and 25 tomorrow morning.

Here we go with some wintry weather notes on this Tuesday morning:

...It was 18 degrees with light snow in Mountain City, Tenn., at mid-morning. This is in NE Tennessee at an elevation of 2499 feet.

...Also in NE Tennessee, roads were becoming white at 9 this morning around Johnson City due to heavier snow showers or flurries. Accumulations of 1/2 to one inch were reported across the county.

...Eight inches of snow on the ground now on Newfound Gap in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park.

...Atop Mt. Leconte, an additional three inches of snow fell overnight for a total of 16 inches now on the ground. The high there yesterday was 23 and the low this morning a bitter cold zero!

...There is a trace of snow on the ground at Gatlinburg (Sugarland Center)...Cades Cove...and Oconaluftee. The low was 26 in Gatlinburg.

...In Western North Carolina, Beech Mountain reports 5 inches of snow on the ground with a low of 9 above zero. Mount Mitchell has 7 inches of snow with a low temperature of 5 above.

...A low of 17 this morning at Black Rock Mountain at an elevation of 3464 feet in North Georgia.

Here is a short list of low temperatures this morning. These are usually reported on the 6 AM observations. However, it is possible that some stations got a bit colder after 6 AM (sun does not rise till after 6:40) and we may not get their final low until noon.

23 in Florence (Central Highlands)
26 in Pinson and Hartselle (wind chill 14 in Hartselle)
27 at Greystone Farms (North Shelby County) and in Muscle Shoals
28 at Birmingham, Huntsville and in Desoto State park
30 in Cullman and Black Creek (NE Etowah County)
31 at Tuscaloosa Airport
32 in Selma
33 in Montgomery
34 in Mobile

At 7:30 this morning, a few snow flurries were reported at Harvest, north of Huntsville. Clouds moved toward the SE into extreme NE Alabama this morning. A few snowflakes are possible in places like Scottsboro...Fort Payne...Mentone...Desoto State Park...Centre...Piedmont...Gadsden...just to name a few.

Hitting the road early this morning; going up to Lynn in Winston county to speak to the kids at the elementary school up there. Boy will I be glad when corridor X is finished!

Video is ready to go:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Our forecast low temperature this morning was a bust; we had forecast low 20s, but we only reached the upper 20s. Of course, you really won't feel it since wind chill values are in the teens.

Not sure if we need to change tonight's temperatures; will probably nudge the number up to near 20 or so, but again, we are still talking a hard freeze and most places will be below freezing for 12 hours or more.

Still looks cold for the rest of the month, and snow fans should have at least one decent shot at something happening here before we reach the new year.

Be back this afternoon for the new video update, which will be on the server by 3:30...

As we make an effort to figure out the weather around here for Christmas week, we see some similarities in this years upper air pattern, and that seen in December 1983 and December 1989. In the December 1983 cold wave, the lowest temperature in Birmingham was 2 degrees above zero, recorded on Christmas morning. Another cold air blast followed that arrives at the end of the month, and we reached 9 degrees on December 31, 1983. And, in the 1989 cold wave, Birmingham dropped to one degree above zero on December 23, and 4 degrees on December 24. Many ponds were frozen in both events.

Am I saying it will be that cold here in December 2004? No. I am simply saying there is some similarity in the upper air pattern. We just don’t have any real skill in anything specific beyond seven days, but we can look at trends and patterns, and the pattern favors very cold air reaching the deep south from time to time. And, yes, I would be surprised if we went through the rest of December without a snow or ice threat around here. And, no, I am not saying there will be a white Christmas. But at least there is some hope for those of you dreaming of a white Christmas. We remind you we have never seen a white Christmas here in the classic sense (a blanket of snow on the ground on Christmas morning).

While we are talking cold weather, we are forecasting a low of 18 degrees for tomorrow morning. If we reach that, it will be the second coldest temperature in Birmingham in 2004, surpassed only by a low of 15 degrees measured on January 7. And, if we happen to reach the single digits later this month, it will be the first time that has happened in Birmingham since January 24, 2003 when the mercury here dropped to 7 degrees.