For these Extreme South Alabama counties:

BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE

A steady, cold rain across Alabama.

Temperatures getting a bit scary in NE Alabama.

Rain covera almost 100% of Alabama

All of Mississippi

Includes line of thunderstorms from South Mississippi, across Southeast Louisiana into the North Gulf of Mexico.

Lots of lightning in that line.

Wind damage 5 miles NW of Lettsworth, La., mobile home damaged, powerlines down.

SPOT REPORTS AT 9 PM CST
40 with moderate rain in Huntsville
46, light rain in Tuscaloosa
43 with steady moderate rain in Birmingham
47, light rain, Montgomery
40 light rain in Anniston
34 moderate rain at Fort Payne Airport
33 at Anniston (private weather station, elevation 1201 feet)
33 atop Mt. Cheaha
31 in Mentone (elevation 1765 feet)
32 in Mentone (elevation 1841 feet)
34 in Collinsville
27 in Fort payne (on the mountain, elevation 1280 feet)
36 at Black Creek (NE Etowah County) (down 6 degrees in 2 hours)

32 with freezing rain in Atlanta

That's what happening across Alabama tonight.

Never mind that it is not officially winter yet.

And, I don't know what a New Fashioned Winter Rain is.

The rain is extensive across the state early this evening. It's going to be an all-nighter. It is a cold rain, too. 7 pm temperatures:

37 in Fort Payne
46 in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa
39 was the high in DeSoto State Park

Now raining most of Alabama
Extensive rain across Mississippi and Louisiana spreading east toward Alabama
Heaviest rain over Southwest Mississippi and South Louisiana

REGIONAL WEATHER PROBLEMS
Tornado touchdown 3 miles south of Katy, Tex. (west of Houston)
3 reports of tornado on ground in Colorado County of Southeast Texas
5.56 inches of rain in Houston today, a record for December 14

ICE STORM WARNING
NWS, Atlanta issued it for Northeast Georgia this evening.
It includes the cities of Dahlonega, Cleveland and Gainesville
Conditions will worsen overnight
Elsewhere in North Georgia, a Winter Weather Advisory
This includes Atlanta but problems are expected to be minimal.
Ice Storm Warning also for the west part of the carolinas

A few spot reports at 7 pm, CST

35 in Atlanta
33 in Athens
36 with snow flurries in Marietta

Scattered mostly light rain across Alabama late this afternoon, a little steadier over the western sections.

Rain more widespread but still not real heavy across Mississippi.

Louisiana covered almost entirely with rain and moderate to heavy in places. This is especially true over the SW part of Louisiana where a line of showers and thunderstorms was moving eastward.

In Alabama, the wedge is at work. Only 42 degrees in Fort Payne but 62 in Mobile.

The rain will gradually get heavier tonight with fewer breaks.

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Three storm systems ahead... number one, Al, is getting his act together right now. We have a 1005 mb surface low near Galveston, with a large mass of rain and storms ahead of it. There is a risk of severe storms for the entire Gulf coast, all the way from Galveston to Apalachicola. The warm sector of the system is surging inland, and all of you along and south of I-10 will have to watch for severe weather tonight.

Around here, a cold, soaking rain is ahead tonight. One to two inches of rain with temperatures holding rock steady in the 40s. The 12Z NAM extraction shows 1.79" for Birmingham. Not a bad little rain event.

The WEDGE is alive and well as expected. Right now Fort Payne has 41 and Atlanta reports 39 (that is down from 40 degrees in Atlanta last hour). This thing looks pretty ugly in the wedge, with freezing rain and ice accumulation from the northeast tip of Georgia up into Pennsylvania.

The rain should end tomorrow morning from west to east, and we might even drop a few degrees during the day as CAA kicks in (cold air advection). Friday should be cool and dry.

BOB: The 12Z run of the GFS is a tad warmer in its thermal fields. Really I don't see anything to make us change the forecast. A cold rain for most of Alabama late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a wintry mix possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield over the northern quarter of Alabama, mostly north of U.S. 278. In that region, the precipitation should be light, and temperatures should generally be above freezing, so no travel problems are really expected.

Many people are hitting the road this weekend as the Christmas holiday gets close. I really don't think "Bob" will be a major trouble maker for travel... the precipitation should mostly stay south of Tennessee, where the cold air will be deeper. Maybe a little light snow over East Tennessee Saturday night. Most of Georgia should see only a cold rain from this, and any wintry precipitation north of Atlanta should be light, much like Alabama.

But, you know my routine... lets get Al out of the way and we can be really specific with Bob tomorrow. But for now, we just don't expect any serious issues over the weekend.

HOPE: Now the fun begins. Cold air deepens next week, and the next short wave rolls in from the west at mid-week on Tuesday or Wednesday. Hope continues to show up nicely on all models, but the moisture, placement of surface features, and upper air support are all changing from run to run, as you expect with a system a week out. The 12Z run of the GFS seems too far south and east with the surface low. The 12Z European is much more supportive of a significant storm here.

Based on my sitting in a weather office staring at this stuff for 27 years, and the current teleconnections setup, I still think the idea of a significant winter storm has great merit. Now understand, from the beginning and today I am not saying it will snow in Alabama. I am saying there is a risk of a significant winter storm for parts of the deep south, or the southeast U.S. Best shot at a pre-Christmas snow event for the southern states in a number of years. I just don't know who has the best shot... nobody does at this stage of the game. Maybe Alabama, maybe not. But we have a shot.

BE SURE and scroll down and read Jason's post called "Climate vs Weather", and my post from last night called "Consensus and Accuracy". Both really go hand in hand, and explain why our forecasts sometimes don't match what you might read on other web sites or see on other TV stations.

I will have the next map discussion video and long post here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... notes this evening and tonight as AL unfolds!

Be sure and read Jason Simpson's excellent post on Climate vs. Weather below this one. Good stuff.

Just posted the new seven day forecast over on that page... I wrote the afternoon package today for J.B. Elliott who is taking the day off. He will be "back in service" later this evening.

Al, our first storm of the big three, is quite a system. The surface low shows up on the upper Texas coast.

New Orleans has surged to 75 degrees, and severe storms are possible this evening along the upper Texas and Louisiana coast. Severe storms could move to the coastal counties of Mississippi and Alabama later tonight in the warm sector.

Al will bring a soaking rain here... one to two inches are likely. Might even hear some thunder here tonight.

And, the wedge has set up just as forecast... Fort Payne is holding at 39 up in DeKalb county in the wedge... Athens, GA is at 36 and Asheville, NC reports 28. A pretty nasty ice storm is ahead tonight in the general area from the northeast tip of Georgia all the way to Pennsylvania.

I will now shift duties to the blog here and will have the new discussion on AL, BOB, and HOPE along with a new map discussion video ready by 3:30....

What’s in a number? Well, actually, a lot can be stated or summarized in a single number! Sometimes, way too much can be stated in a single summary so that you lose the details of how you arrived at that point. That’s how climatology works. Too many times, we say “the average high” or the “average low” for a particular day is this or that. For example, today’s averages at the Birmingham International Airport are 56 for a high temperature, 35 for a low temperature, and according to the books, we should see, on average 0.14” today. The actual weather that we experience will most likely be significantly different than the averages.

Sometimes we call those average highs, lows, and rainfall amounts the climatology data for a certain city on a certain day. It’s useful because it gives us a meter stick to measure extremes by, but that’s about it. Climate data is measured over 30 years, so if you took every single high temperature and low temperature for today and averaged them together, December 14, you would come up with 56 and 35. All rainfall measured is averaged too, and it comes to 0.14.” Yesterday’s weather compared to that meter stick was “below normal” with a high of 52, low of 28, and no rain at all. It was close enough to the average, though, to say it was “a typical December day,” and it reinforces the flawed idea that all forecasts should trend toward climatology.

As meteorologists, sometimes we (or at least I) have a tendency to be conservative with a forecast because I focus too much on the meter stick and not on the entire picture. That’s a dangerous place to live because there are going to be extreme events that get “evened out” when everything gets averaged up. That record high of 77 set back in 1971 and the record low of 14 in 1917 don’t really stand out in the 56 and 35, but they are there! The big Blizzard of ’93 doesn’t show up well in the averages for mid-March, but it is in there. Hurricane Ivan’s rain doesn’t show up well in the September rain averages either! The point is simply this, just because the books say that Birmingham’s average high for today is 56 does not mean we will always be close to it.

If we always stay with climatology and averages, then there is no way we will ever get an idea that something extreme could happen. The atmosphere is a complex ocean of air with many currents moving air around in all directions. Forecast models do an o.k. job of guiding us toward a forecast down the road, but those models are very near-sighted. After 72 hours, they really start moving toward climatology and away from extreme ideas. You can bet your bottom dollar that no forecast model seven days in advance forecasted a low of 2 above zero in Birmingham on the morning of March 14, 1993 after 13 inches of snow had fallen in the two days prior. Climate data is great. We need a good climatology of an area, but to get the full picture of how the weather really is for a region, state, or city, sometimes you have to go beyond just a simple number.

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

If you didn't read our blog posts from yesterday... you can scroll down and see that I have named the three storm systems on the board for the next 7 to 8 days. Al, Bob, and Hope. I like short names that are easy to pronounce. And, understand I like to deal with them one at a time. So, the nit-picking details on Bob and Hope will have to wait, but they are both very challenging systems.

AL: Nice batch of rain shows up early this morning as I write this. This is in association with the upper air part of the storm, positioned well to the north of us. During the day, a surface low will form in the coastal waters south of Louisiana, and should result in an expanding rain shield to the southwest of Alabama, which will move in here later today and tonight.

We still expect a soaking rain tonight with one to two inches likely. Some thunder is also possible mainly over the southern half of Alabama. We also note SPC has defined a slight of severe thunderstorms for the coastal counties/parishes of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

To the northeast, Al will bring some nasty icing tonight to parts of the western Carolinas on up into Pennsylvania.

The rain here will wind down early tomorrow, and Friday should be dry and cool.

BOB: Along comes Bob for the weekend. Another coastal low, but the air will be a little colder this time, setting up a problematic forecast for the northern third of the state. No doubt the deeper moisture will be over south Alabama, but there might be a little "sweet spot" where snow flakes or ice pellets will fall.

We note the 850 mb (5,000 feet) freeze line is near I-20. Surface temperatures will probably be a little above freezing, so if we do see snow flakes or sleet it should not pose any serious problems. The best chance of precipitation from Bob will be mainly Saturday night....

Lets get Al out of the way and we can really focus on Bob tomorrow. But, for the moment I think you almost have to at least mention a wintry mix for areas north of I-20 Saturday night. But, once again, major travel issues are not likely.

A nice shot of cold air rolls in here following Bob for the first part of next week.

HOPE: This is our mid-week storm next week, most likely in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. EVERY run of the GFS shows Hope nicely, but they differ in the moisture, strength, and surface reflection. The GFS will flip and flop multiple times, and I see no reason to change the logic of a significant storm in this period for the deep south.

Yes, with the deeper cold air I still think SOME part of the deep south will have the first significant winter storm threat of the season with Hope. I don't know exactly where.... nobody does. But the threat is there, and the system is on the board.

Yesterday's 18Z run of the GFS went nuts with the system with a major surface low and serious snow potential. The latest run (06Z) looks fairly dry. The solution is probably somwhere between.

Bottom line is that a very cold airmass will be in place early next week, and a storm system will be rolling through the southern states. Getting those two elements to dance together nicely has been the age old problem for snow lovers in Alabama, and there is no way to know if it will happen so far in advance. But, I am simply saying the threat is there for now.

I encourage you to scroll down and read my post on "Consensus vs Accuracy" below. This describes how I forecast the weather, and how I try to run my life. Sometimes you have to take a stand.

TODAY: J.B. Elliott is taking the morning off and I will be writing the afternoon forecast package for him today. On a normal weekday, I write the morning package you see over on the seven day forecast page on the ABC 33/40 web site, and J.B. handles the afternoon forecast. Bill Murray covers weekends.

I won't have a "Miss Molly" story... those will return tomorrow!

The blog discussion and map discussion video will be posted on time, by 3:30...