A historic event occurred on Friday, September 16, 2005….

NOAA flew its first unmanned aircraft, or Aerosonde, into Hurricane Ophelia while it was moving along the East Coast of the United States. At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the Aerosonde was released from a ground based transport vehicle and lifted off for a ten hour successful mission. Researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami were overjoyed at the results of the flight. They hope that the missions will become routine events in the near future. Currently, flights must occur within flying range of the Wallops Island facility, which limits the range of use.

The information provided by Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is invaluable to forecasters. But the aircraft are unable to fly at low levels because of the turbulent conditions located there. Flying at altitudes as low as five hundred feet, the Aerosonde allows continuous real time sampling of the near-surface environment, which is increasingly believed to be critical in understanding intensification processes, needless to say how strong winds are at the surface. Observations of temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed were measured every half second and transmitted back to the National Hurricane Center and AOML by satellite. An infrared sensor also measured sea surface temperatures.

Currently, reconnaissance crews take flight level observations, from which surface winds must be estimated using a formula. Often, the estimates are not accurate. They also make visual observations of the sea state and estimate winds from those observations. The Aerosondes will allow for more accurate low level wind measurements.

The air-sea interface appears to be important in understanding intensification, because this is where energy is transferred from the ocean to the storm through evaporation. This could help forecasters to make better intensity change forecasts. The Aerosondes have a flight level ceiling of 2500 feet when manned aircraft are in the area. The Aerosondes will be permitted to spiral all the way to 10,000 feet in the eye at the end of each mission for a special sounding if no aircraft are in the area.

The Aerosonde returned in pristine condition at 5:30 p.m. EDT to its launch site at the NASA Wallops Island Flight Facility in southeastern Virginia. Hopefully, this will be the start of something big,

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

While we enjoy a dry and warm weekend, we will be watching the storm system in the northern U.S. closely. Lots of snow likely for the mountains in Montana, Wyoming, and northern Utah, and strong to severe storms developing in the warm sector southeast of the surface low.

It still looks like our primary window for rain and storms will come from around noon Monday through noon Tuesday. Many Alabama communities will receive one to two inches of rain, and we will have a chance of strong to severe storms along the front. While the main upper support will be a little north of here, the latest GFS suggests the wind fields will be rather strong, and there will be some helicity involved. The amount of surface instability is very much in question; that will really determine the actual severe weather threat.

SPC has about the western half of Alabama in a severe weather risk for Monday and Monday night.

The rain will end from west to east Tuesday morning, followed by much cooler air. Looks like we will have highs only in the mid 70s on Tuesday thanks to lingering clouds and cold air advection. Sunshine returns Wednesday with very pleasant temperatures; highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Some of the cooler spots might even reach the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

Going to have to keep this one short today; we just finished another ABC 33/40 10th Birthday celebration (for employees only), and I am way behind schedule today. Brian Peters will have the map discussion videos over the weekend, and my next one will by posted Monday morning (it will be coming to you from Dallas, where I will be spending a couple of days in the Lone Star State).

Keep an eye on the blog this weekend; we will keep you updated on the threat of strong to severe storms Monday. Have a great weekend, share some laughs, and spend some time with your family...

Many places in Alabama had low temperatures this morning that were close to those yesterday morning. But there were some variations and the valleys were the coolest. For example:

61 atop Mt. Cheaha (33/40 Skycam) but
56 at Anniston Airport

Here we go...

ALABAMA
50 at Cullman Airport, Valley Head, Black Creek (49.6 at BC)
51 in Crossville
53 in Wedowee
54 at Desoto State Park, Fort Payne, Muscle Shoals, Pinson, Jasper, Talladega, Ashville, Heflin and Cullman Agricultural Station
55 at Courtland, Huntsville, Alabaster*, Centreville, Dearmanville
56 in Anniston, Evergreen, Alexander City
57 in Albertville, Decatur, Meridianville, Troy, Heflin
58 in Alabaster*, Clanton, Wadley
59 in Auburn
60 in Montgomery
61 in Birmingham, Calera, Rock Mills, Mt. Cheaha
62 in Selma and Tuscaloosa
63 in Mobile and Prattville
64 in Dothan
71 in Gulf Shores (33/40 Skycam)

* We get two reports from Alabaster a couple of miles apart

OTHERS JUST FOR THE FUN OF IT
48 in Maggie Valley, N.C
21 in Deadman Valley, NW Canada (private weather station)
40 atop Mt. Leconte, in Smoky Mountains
50 in Gatlinburg and Cades Cove
42 in Boone, N.C., and atop Mt. Mitchell
106 below zero at Vostok, Antarticia
1 above zero at Summit Greenland (on the ice cap) (waning days of Summer)

A WEATHER (HYDROLOGY FACT)
When rain seeps down through the soil because of gravity, it eventually reaches an area where the pores in rocks and sediments are saturated. This zone is called the "water table" It is the area where saturated and unsaturated zones meet. The water table fluctuates from season to season and from year to year. The table is not flat like a kitchen table. It is important to people who drill or dig wells to know about how far down the water table is.

AND FINALLY THIS JUST TO COOL YOU MORE
------------------------------------------
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREAT FALLS...STANFORD...LEWISTOWN
437 AM MDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET
WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING FROM NEAR 5000 FEET OVER
CASCADE COUNTY TO NEAR 7000 FEET OVER FERGUS COUNTY WILL LOWER TO
NEAR THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
SATURDAY COULD CAUSE LOCAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

DRY WEEKEND: Still no change in our thinking for today and the weekend. Dry weather with a warming trend; we will be in the upper 80s tomorrow and close to 90 by Sunday afternoon. Nights will remain pleasant.

While we enjoy the nice weather here, we will watch the big storm over the northwest U.S. bring the first big snow of the season to the northern Rocky Mountain region; some of the high terrain locations could see up to one foot of snow over the weekend. The GFS is trending deeper on that storm, and it maintains a vigorous system near the U.S./Canadian border early next week.

That system will swing a cold front down into Alabama, and with the better dynamics we will now have to look at mentioning some risk of strong to severe storms, and locally heavy rain. Looks like our best chance of rain and storms will come from about midday Monday through midday Tuesday, and SPC has now included the western part of the state in a severe weather risk (that risk for Monday runs from about Houston to Huntsville; see the video for more). Rainfall amounts of one to two inches can be expected as well. The key to the severe weather risk will be the surface based instability; if we can get some sunshine Monday then the weather could be pretty active here by the late afternoon and nighttime hours.

Keep an eye on the blog over the weekend and we will keep you posted about this threat.

Drier and cooler air will flow in here following the stormy weather, and by Wednesday of next week the GFS MOS is suggesting a high of 78 and a low of 56 for Birmingham with a clear sky. Sure sounds good to me; I think the cooler spots in North Alabama have a great chance of reaching the 40s early Wednesday morning.

TROPICS: Gordon and Helene will remain far from land in the open Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are still very calm this morning. In the eastern Pacific, tropical storm Lane is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast. We will watch to watch the moisture associated with this system; that might be headed for New Mexico or Texas next week some a risk of flooding rains.

I had a number of e-mails asking for pictures of J.B. Elliott at our 10th birthday party last night (ABC 33/40 turned 10 this month, in case you haven't heard)... it is always something to watch him work a buffett line... but unfortunately he had some circumstances come up and couldn't make it.

It was great seeing many old friends and former employees last night; and a number of folks from Allbritton Communications were down as well including our Chairman, Robert Allbritton. What a great guy; he is the one to thank for the long form severe weather coverage. He gave me the green light to do this way before anyone else in the market even considered the idea. Robert has given us the freedom to build the weather operation our way, and we have blazed many new trails. I appreciate his leadership in allowing us to think outside the box in a big way.

WEATHER PARTY: Speaking of a big party, there is always one going on at our sister site:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

That is a great source of late breaking weather news, and if you register you can submit and vote on links to determine what is "published" on the front page. Be sure and bookmark that one.

I will have the next afternoon map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!