The weather will be the talk of the town next week. You know the deal; rumors of snow storms and a white Christmas are flying through grocery stores, beauty shops, and school hallways across the northern half of Alabama.

Our focus will be on a storm system that is projected to form in the mid to late part of next week, in the December 22-24 time frame. Seems like the last several model runs have hinted this will be a mostly rain event for Alabama, with a possible change to snow on the back side of the storm. These kind of events usually don’t amount to much when it comes to getting snow on the ground. However, let me stress that the GFS might not understand the depth of the cold air that will blow in here Sunday and Monday, and the surface low in the middle of next week could form more to the south, in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which would be more favorable for an all-snow event here. Give me another 24 hours and I will go ahead and make an initial call on this storm system here tomorrow morning.

Down the road, not a whole lot of confidence in a storm system that some model runs have shown in the December 26-28 time frame. If one does indeed form in the northern Gulf then, it could very well be cold enough for some snow around here, but we have to get through the first storm before we really worry about it.

And, snow fans, don’t forget the flurries coming Sunday. Sometimes this pattern can produce enough snow to make the ground white up on Lookout Mountain in extreme northeast Alabama. I know the operators of the Cloudmont Ski Resort up in Mentone have to love this weather pattern! I hear some of the slopes are already open at Alabama’s only snow ski resort.

Need about 30 hours today to get everything done.

The afternoon video update is posted:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Highlights:

*Sunday looks really cold. We could stay below freezing all day with occasional flurries. Maybe enough to get the ground white on the mountains in northeast Alabama. Places like Mentone. The big deal down here will be the cold air. Teens are likely by Monday morning.

*Two storms to deal week the week of Christmas. Storm number one comes up in the December 22-23 time frame, and the next one in the December 25-26 time frame. Both have the POTENTIAL for snow or ice here. But, it could be just a cold rain. Or, the storms could be far enough south to keep all significant precipitation south of here. Gut feeling says at least one of them will bring some significant snow to Alabama, but it is simply too early to call.

I will probably be ready to make a specific forecast on at least the first storm by Friday morning.

Thanks to Brian Peters for covering the 5:00 and 6:00 weather on ABC 33/40 this evening; I am headed to Hunter Street for the Candlelight Service this evening... our seven year old is part of a choir that is involved. I will be back n the studio for the 10:00.

Also thanks to Jim, Rufus, Tammy Sue, Jon, and the gang at WTDR-FM, Thunder 92-7, in Anniston for letting me drop by today and be a part of their annual "Bake A Christmas" fund raiser for those in need in east Alabama. Great fun as always...

Here is a look at this morning's very cold low temperatures. First, the national lows: It was 10 below in Saranac Lake, in Upstate New York with some freezing fog in the area. It was 42 below at Nuiqsut, Alaska. The wind chill at Deadhorse, Alaska has been running as low as -62 this morning!

ALABAMA
13 in Collinsville
14 in Valley Head
17 at Black Creek (NE Etowah County) and Rainbow City
18 in Pinson, Center Point, Cottondale, Desoto State Park, Crossville and
at Vinemont School in North Cullman County
19 in Decatur, Auburn, Fort Payne and Meridianville
20 in Birmingham, Huntsville, Weaver, Glencoe and Alabaster and
Russleville
21 in Hackleburg
22 in Muscle Shoals, Troy, Trussville at Greystone Farms (North Shelby)
23 in Oxford and Tuscaloosa
24 in Anniston and Evergreen
25 in Mobile and at the Shelby County Airport
27 in Montgomery

SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK and WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
22 in Gatlinburg with no measurable snow on the ground
7 on Newfound Gap with 8 inches of snow
0 atop Mt. Leconte with 20 inches of snow (4 more inches last 24 hours)
The "high" on Mt. Leconte yesterday was only 11.
6 at Beech Mountain, N. C., with 6 inches of snow
6 on Grandfather Mountain with 2 inches of snow
3 on Mt. Mitchell with 9 inches of snow. (Tuesday high only 10

GEORGIA
19 in Augusta
20 in Cummings
21 in Gainsville
23 in Athens and Atlanta

MISSISSIPPI
19 in Columbus
20 in Greenwood
21 in Tupelo
24 in Meridian, Jackson and Pascagoula
25 in Hattiesburg

Morning video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

As of this post the lowest temperature at the Birmingham Airport has been 20 degrees. Still time to slip into the upper teens. J.B. Elliott as always will gather low temperature reports from around the state and post them on here shortly.

Watch the video for details... but here are some highlights:

*GFS goes nuts with temperature forecasts on Monday, forecasting a high of 33 and a low of 10 degees in Birmingham! Maybe it read my rant about always forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s in the longer ranges in Arctic air. We don't buy into that yet; in the current forecast package I have a high of 39 and a low of 24 for Monday. We will adjust later today as needed.

*The confidence in a Gulf of Mexico storm in the December 22-24 time frame is growing. Snow fans are getting their hopes up big time, but I am not ready to make a call yet. And, I probably won't make a specific call until Friday morning. Might be rain, might be snow, the whole thing might be too far south for any significant precipitation here. Just too early to call.

*The weather still looks cold through the rest of December, but some suggestion the pattern might let up temporarily toward the end of the month with a warming trend as the upper air amplitude lessens.