ABC 33/40's annual severe weather awareness tour is coming in February! Storm Alert 2006 is the original Alabama weather tour, which features some amazing Alabama weather stories, prizes, and your change to meet the ABC 33/40 team of meteorologists in person! This is our ninth year to bring the tour to Alabama. Here are some of the stories we are featuring this year:
*Alabama's greatest tornado disaster: March 21, 1932. Meet a man who survived the disater in Chilton County at the age of four, but he lost his parents and five brothers and sisters. This is an amazing story of survival. The great Alabama weather legend and historian J.B. Elliott will share details of the event.
*Global warming. Fact, or myth? What does it mean for Alabama? Brian Peters will explore the controversial subject.
*The amazing 2005 hurricane season. What is ahead for 2006? Jason Simpson talks with Alabama's top hurricane expert, and one of the best in the world.
As always, we will feature some very useful information you can use as we approach the 2006 spring tornado season. Pick up a free copy of our new Storm Alert brochure, which contains great safety information for your family. And, you can meet James Spann, John Oldshue, Jason Simpson, and Brian Peters.
We begin the tour on February 2 in Hamilton at the Bevill State Auditorium… then we will be in Homewood on February 10 at the Homewood High auditorium, in Talladega on February 17 at the Ritz Theater, in Gadsden on February 24 at the Convention Hall, and in Northport on February 28 at the Northport Civic Center. All shows begin at 7:00, get there early for a good seat!
Storm Alert 2006 Gets Closer
January 16, 2006, 10:45 pm
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
9:30 pm Progress Report on Rain
January 16, 2006, 10:41 pm
Most of Central and South Alabama getting very little rain at this time. Mostly scattered light drizzle. A steady rain is falling over Northwest and Extreme North Alabama generally north of a line from Fayette to Cullman to Boaz.
Generally light but a bit heavier over the Extreme Northwest.
Off to the west...a zone of moderate to heavy rain from near Memphis down across Northwest Mississippi, Southeast Arkansas, North and West Louisiana into Southeast Texas. This heavier rain will be affecting Alabama long past midnight and Tuesday.
At 9:30 pm, lightning was restricted to North Louisiana down into Southeast Texas.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for one parrish in West Central Louisiana this evening.
Storm prediction Center (SPC) has posted a slight risk of severe weather for about the south half of Alabama tomorrow (Tuesday)
Look for a new forecast and discussion over on the 7-day discussion by James Spann shortly.
Generally light but a bit heavier over the Extreme Northwest.
Off to the west...a zone of moderate to heavy rain from near Memphis down across Northwest Mississippi, Southeast Arkansas, North and West Louisiana into Southeast Texas. This heavier rain will be affecting Alabama long past midnight and Tuesday.
At 9:30 pm, lightning was restricted to North Louisiana down into Southeast Texas.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for one parrish in West Central Louisiana this evening.
Storm prediction Center (SPC) has posted a slight risk of severe weather for about the south half of Alabama tomorrow (Tuesday)
Look for a new forecast and discussion over on the 7-day discussion by James Spann shortly.
A Good Soaking Ahead
January 16, 2006, 4:30 pm
The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Get set for a good soaking. Most models are hinting at about two inches of rain for most spots; the WRF is suggesting some neighborhoods might even be closer to three inches, especially over the northwest counties of Alabama. While light rain will continue at times tonight, the heaviest rain should come from about 4:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon tomorrow. There will be some thunder, but with no surface based instability the chance of severe weather up this way is tiny. Any strong to severe thunderstorms should be limited to the coastal counties of Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida panhandle.
Looks like we hold in the 50s tomorrow morning, and then fall through the 40s tomorrow afternoon as cold air moves in following the surface front.
THE S WORD? We will continue to mention the chance of a few flurries tomorrow night as cold air deepens across the state. The 12Z model data actually shows a scenario less favorable for any light snow, but with such a cold and strong upper trough, you just about have to mention a chance of flurries.
With a fast moving pattern, we will forecast the return on sunshine on Wednesday, but a chilly breeze will continue. And, it still looks like we reach the 20s by early Thursday morning.
NEXT SYSTEM: The 12Z GFS suggests the best chance of showers and storms with our next system will come from about midnight Friday night through noon on Saturday. This system doesn't look quite as robust, but some one inch rain amounts will be possible. Sunday now looks dry.
LONG RANGE: Still no big change through the rest of January. A rain producing system is likely about every three to four days, followed by a quick shot of cold air. No blocking, no negative NAO. Don't be surprised, however, if that ole NAO wants to trend negative sometime in February.
Will have the next map discussion on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... and updates tonight as needed!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Get set for a good soaking. Most models are hinting at about two inches of rain for most spots; the WRF is suggesting some neighborhoods might even be closer to three inches, especially over the northwest counties of Alabama. While light rain will continue at times tonight, the heaviest rain should come from about 4:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon tomorrow. There will be some thunder, but with no surface based instability the chance of severe weather up this way is tiny. Any strong to severe thunderstorms should be limited to the coastal counties of Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida panhandle.
Looks like we hold in the 50s tomorrow morning, and then fall through the 40s tomorrow afternoon as cold air moves in following the surface front.
THE S WORD? We will continue to mention the chance of a few flurries tomorrow night as cold air deepens across the state. The 12Z model data actually shows a scenario less favorable for any light snow, but with such a cold and strong upper trough, you just about have to mention a chance of flurries.
With a fast moving pattern, we will forecast the return on sunshine on Wednesday, but a chilly breeze will continue. And, it still looks like we reach the 20s by early Thursday morning.
NEXT SYSTEM: The 12Z GFS suggests the best chance of showers and storms with our next system will come from about midnight Friday night through noon on Saturday. This system doesn't look quite as robust, but some one inch rain amounts will be possible. Sunday now looks dry.
LONG RANGE: Still no big change through the rest of January. A rain producing system is likely about every three to four days, followed by a quick shot of cold air. No blocking, no negative NAO. Don't be surprised, however, if that ole NAO wants to trend negative sometime in February.
Will have the next map discussion on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... and updates tonight as needed!
Smoky Mountain Snow
January 16, 2006, 11:19 am
Was not as much as originally expected over the weekend. Very little down low in such places as Gatlinburg, Cades Cove, Pigeon Forge. These amounts from the high country as of this morning:
6 inches on Newfound Gap with a low of 25.
9 inches atop Mt. Leconte with a low of 15
2 to 4 inches in and around Mountain City in Extreme Northeast Tennessee
2 inches at Beech Mountain in Western North Carolina
6 inches on Newfound Gap with a low of 25.
9 inches atop Mt. Leconte with a low of 15
2 to 4 inches in and around Mountain City in Extreme Northeast Tennessee
2 inches at Beech Mountain in Western North Carolina
by J.B. Elliott
in Winter Weather
Another Dynamic Storm System Ahead
January 16, 2006, 7:25 am
The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
If you missed the posts yesterday; we had to change to an "image verification" comment method to prevent SPAM bots from putting nasty comments on this blog. Some people with very bad ethics have way too much time on their hands. Thanks for your understanding...
We won't mind criticism on the blog, but we don't allow personal attacks, profanity, SPAM bots, etc...
Another dynamic storm system is ahead. Like the storm system last Friday, great dynamics, very little in the way of thermodynamics for severe weather. There is simply no surface based instability around here, so we don't have any real concern for organized severe weather for the northern half of the state. Here is the projected sequence of events:
TODAY: Just a few scattered showers, and the low levels remain quite dry so anything on radar probably won't touch the ground this morning.
TONIGHT: Rain and storms should become more widespread... esepcially after midnight.
TOMORROW: A morning soaking is likely with rain and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely; most spots should be closed to 2 inches. The NAM extraction for Birmingham shows 1.63". I think the gretest windown for heavy rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. until 12 noon. Then, temperatures should begin to fall tomorrow afternoon as colder air sweeps into the state. Many communities will be in the 30s by tomorrow evening with a strong northwest wind.
TOMORROW NIGHT: As the colder moves in, we might have a brief period of light snow. Now don't get too excited; soil temperatures are warm and we don't expect any accumulation, but the NAM shows about a three hour window where a little light snow could fall. The WRF, on the other hand, shows the moisture long gone before the cold air is deep enough for snow. We will mention a little light snow tomorrow night with no accumulation.
WEDNESDAY: A brisk and chilly day, but it looks like the sky will clear as the upper trough moves on to the east. We should be in the 20s by Thursday morning.
NEXT SYSTEM: The 06Z GFS is a little slower than the 12Z GFS on the weekend system, but another fast moving round of showers and storms is likely at some point Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, or Sunday morning. That system doesn't look as robust as the previous two.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of a negative NAO or blocking in the upper air pattern. So, the weather will remain very changeable through the end of January. Don't be surprised, however, if we do see the NAO going negative in February.
I will have the next map discussion video ready by 3:30 this afternoon... no school today and some have the day off. Enjoy!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
If you missed the posts yesterday; we had to change to an "image verification" comment method to prevent SPAM bots from putting nasty comments on this blog. Some people with very bad ethics have way too much time on their hands. Thanks for your understanding...
We won't mind criticism on the blog, but we don't allow personal attacks, profanity, SPAM bots, etc...
Another dynamic storm system is ahead. Like the storm system last Friday, great dynamics, very little in the way of thermodynamics for severe weather. There is simply no surface based instability around here, so we don't have any real concern for organized severe weather for the northern half of the state. Here is the projected sequence of events:
TODAY: Just a few scattered showers, and the low levels remain quite dry so anything on radar probably won't touch the ground this morning.
TONIGHT: Rain and storms should become more widespread... esepcially after midnight.
TOMORROW: A morning soaking is likely with rain and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely; most spots should be closed to 2 inches. The NAM extraction for Birmingham shows 1.63". I think the gretest windown for heavy rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. until 12 noon. Then, temperatures should begin to fall tomorrow afternoon as colder air sweeps into the state. Many communities will be in the 30s by tomorrow evening with a strong northwest wind.
TOMORROW NIGHT: As the colder moves in, we might have a brief period of light snow. Now don't get too excited; soil temperatures are warm and we don't expect any accumulation, but the NAM shows about a three hour window where a little light snow could fall. The WRF, on the other hand, shows the moisture long gone before the cold air is deep enough for snow. We will mention a little light snow tomorrow night with no accumulation.
WEDNESDAY: A brisk and chilly day, but it looks like the sky will clear as the upper trough moves on to the east. We should be in the 20s by Thursday morning.
NEXT SYSTEM: The 06Z GFS is a little slower than the 12Z GFS on the weekend system, but another fast moving round of showers and storms is likely at some point Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, or Sunday morning. That system doesn't look as robust as the previous two.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of a negative NAO or blocking in the upper air pattern. So, the weather will remain very changeable through the end of January. Don't be surprised, however, if we do see the NAO going negative in February.
I will have the next map discussion video ready by 3:30 this afternoon... no school today and some have the day off. Enjoy!
Most at Risk U.S. Cities for Tornadoes
January 16, 2006, 12:09 amAccording to the book Extreme Weather by Christopher C. Burt, the following are the large cities that are most at risk from tornadoes:
1. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma—112 tornadoes since 1893.
2. Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas—Increasing population makes the Metropolis a disaster in the making.
3.. Lubbock, Texas—Scene of a major F5 tornado on May 11, 1970
4. Kansas City, Missouri-
5. Indianapolis, Indiana
6. St. Louis, Missouri
7. Jackson, Mississippi/Birmingham, Alabama
8. Little Rock, Arkansas
9. Omaha, Nebraska
10. Chicago, Illinois
If you get a chance to grab this book, do it. It is a fascinating and colorful read.
- Bill Murray
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
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