Just think, Spring starts in about two weeks.

Well, not really, officially it starts about the third week of March. However, forever and ever weather people have considered March, April and May as Spring and December, January and February as Winter.

How have we done so far?

A fairly cold December followed by an amazingly warm January. February so far is running fairly close to normal. But the most unusual thing is that the temperature has not been below 23 the entire winter. In January it did not even get below 28. That is amazing. It is most unusual for Birmingham to go through the entire winter without at least getting down into the teens.

Yesterday temperatures soared into the 70s all across Alabama and as warm as 78 in Montgomery. Now we have an intrusion of much colder air starting today and staying with us through most of the weekend. Even so, we don’t expect any temperatures anywhere near the teens.

What does all of this mean for the rest of the year? We don’t know what the summer will be like or even the spring. But unless we can get some very cold temperatures during the last half of February or early March, we will probably be “bugged” to death this summer. We really need some temperatures around 10, 15 or 18 several times during the winter to kill back the bugs and all the other varmints, such as spiders, gnats—you name it.

At this time, we don’t see any real cold weather like that and during this weekend we will be more concerned about the possibility of some frozen precipitation than we will the low temperatures.

-J.B. Elliott

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms extended from Northern Indiana down across Southern Illinois into Southeast Missouri and Northwest Arkansas. Considerable lightning.

The thunderstorms were along a strong cold front that continues to push toward the southeast.

At 7 pm, the front was near Little Rock. While it was a balmy 69 degrees in Little Rock at 7 it was 33 in Northwest Arkansas at Fayetteville with a wind chill of 23.

In Fayetteville this afternoon there was a record high of 76. So their temperature has plunged 43 degrees already.

A Tornado Watch continues until very late tonight (1 am, CST) for parts of West Kentucky, Extreme West Tennessee, East Arkansas and Extreme Northwest Mississippi including the Memphis area.

Ironically, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for some of those same areas.

There were no showers in Alabama as of 7:25 pm.

The cold front that we are all interested in was pushing across Arkansas late this afternoon approaching Little Rock.

It was a warm 74 in Little Rock while Fayetteville had 54. It was in the mid 20s over Northern Kansas.

Interesting that parts of Arkansas are under both a Tornado Watch and a Winter Storm Watch. Slgnificant ice accumulations possible late Friday/Saturday.

Hail has been reported in several Arkansas communities this afternoon, up to one inch in diameter.

Some wind damage...uprooted trees...at Clarkridge.

**NO afternoon video today due to the travel schedule to Talladega tonight for Storm Alert 2005**

Boy do we have a lot going on here...

*Tornado watches have been posted for the general area from the northeast tip of Texas to Central Illinois. Strong convection is firing along the Arctic boundary. At first glace I would suggest severe weather should not be a big threat down here, but a few thunderstorms could acompany the front during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning.

*As noted below, the 12Z models are coming in colder, which is increasing the risk of a significant ice situation for parts of North Alabama and Tennessee. Lets take this one day at a time:

TOMORROW: I think temperatures will fall through the 40s during the day, and we should be in the 30s by tomorrow evening as the very cold seeps in from the north. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm are likely along the front early in the morning. No travel problems during the day.

SATURDAY: Periods of rain are likely during the day. I think Birmingham will hold in the mid 30s much of the day, but along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden temperatures should be at or below freezing. This means freezing rain and sleet, and the chance of ice accumulation on exposed surfaces and bridges. Icy travel is likely over the northern third of the state, and the ice accumulation could be heavy enough for some power outages.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Temperatures drop below freezing along the I-20 corridor, and icy travel could become an issue for Tuscaloosa/Birmingham/Anniston between about 6:00 p.m. Saturday and 10:00 a.m. Sunday. The precipitation should be tapering off during the night, but even some light drizzle could mean bridge icing.

SUNDAY: Yet another wave moves along the Arctic front, and rain should increase again Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures could be cold enough for more ice over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. At this point it looks like temperatures will be above freezing down this way.

BOTTOM LINE: Anyone traveling north this weekend needs to understand that travel could be very difficult to a layer of ice on bridges. And, some bridge icing is very possible as far south as Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Winter storm watches or advisories will be required for parts of the Deep South for the weekend....

STORM ALERT 2006: We begin tonight at 7:00 at the Ritz Theatre in downtown Talladega... come early, get a good seat, and join us. The first 500 get a free t-shirt.

I will be leaving here around 3:30... might make one more post on this developing situation before I head out the door...

At midday, the cold front had pushed into Northern Oklahoma and across Central Missouri.

There will be huge contrasts in temperature as this front fights it way southward.

Now freezing rain in Kasnas City but a mild 67 at Spirit of St. Louis Airport

In Oklahoma, below freezing in the Panhandle but a springlike 76 in Lawton.

Oklahoma City, in the middle, has experenced frontal passage and now down to 44

* 1/2 of 1% is the amount of water on earth that is available fresh

* 97% percent is sea water

* 2% of the worlds fresh water is locked in glaciers and ice-caps

* 58 degrees is the contrast in temperature across Alabama in the last two days--from 16 Tuesday morning in Hamilton to 74 yesterday in Jackson (Clarke County)

* 60 mph is how fast the wind is blowing on Monarch Pass, Colo., wuith a blizzard in progress and the temperature 4 below zero

* 54 mph is how fast the wind is blowing on Wolf Creek Pass, Colo., with 1 above zero. I sincerely believe that we came close to leaving this old world late one night trying to cross over the pass in a new 1957 Chevy at the onset of a blizzard, and with NO chains

* 38 below zero was the temperature late this morning at Lynn Lake, Manitoba

* 31 below zero is the coldest reported so far today in the USA, at Embarrass, Minnesota

* 91 was the high in Laredo Texas Wednesday. That is the normal high temperature for Central Alabama in July

* 6 to 10 inches os how much snow fell in the Salt lake area and North Utah in the last 24 hours.

* 200+ is the number of automobile and truck accidents because of that snow. Which proves once more that driving on snow is not easy ANYWHERE

* 0 is how many times I have been to New Orleans in my life

* 4 is the corrected number of times I have been to Atlanta. Forgot about changing planes at Atlanta Airport once

* 2 is the number of times I have been to Kennebunkport, Maine. I love the rocky Maine Coast. No, we were not guests of President and Barbara Bush, however we drove out to where we would see Walker's Point and saw Mrs. Bush walking the dog at a distance

Not surprising; the 12Z model runs are coming in colder.

The new NAM MOS has us holding in the mid 30s all day Saturday, in line with our forecasts. I also must point out that MOS product has us dropping to 29 degrees early Sunday with some light freezing rain.

There is growing concern here about ice accumulation on exposed objects over the northern quarter of the state during the day Saturday, north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden.

I will have a full post around by 2:30 p.m....

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

In the short term, we will get a great preview of spring today as the mercury headed toward the low 70s in many areas. But, like we have warned here for days, don't get used to it. Brutally cold air continues to drop southward into the U.S.

A few choice current observations as I write this:

Big Trout Lake, Ontario -42
Geraldton, Ontario -35
International Falls, Minnesota -26
Waskish, Minnesota -22
Hallock, Minnesota -20
Grand Forks, North Dakota -15

Yikes.

The Arctic front will move in during the day tomorrow, making for a very difficult temperature forecast. I am beginning to think we begin the day in the mid 50s, but drop into the 40s during the day. The Tennessee Valley should be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon. A few showers will accompany the front.

COLD, WET WEEKEND: The front will come to a halt most likely south of Montgomery over the weekend. The high in Huntsville on Saturday should be close to 35; the high in Mobile should be close to 75.

Warm, moist air will be lifted over the top of the shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Once again, the cold air will be only 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep. This will mean clouds and periods of rain on Saturday. To the north, a nasty ice storm is likely over parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.

The biggest ice in my opinion will come between U.S. 72 and I-40. Yes, that does mean the chance of some ice down into extreme North Alabama, but Tennessee will probably take the hardest hit. There could be enough ice for serious travel issues and power outages. Be aware of this if you are driving to the north. And, for the many readers we have in that part of the Deep South it might be worth buying some batteries and extra supplies just in case. Winter storm watches will be required for much of Tennessee later today.

For the Birmingham metro, we should hold in the 36 to 39 degree range much of the day. The bashers were out in full force earlier this week, absolutely fuming mad that we were forecasting temperatures in the 30s on Saturday, while "The Weather Channel" and most all other weather web sites had a high close to 60 for Birmingham. I suggest the bashers peek at those other products now. I don't have time to do that, but I would imagine they are on the same page as we are now.

I have always wondered why those who don't like us and our forecasts even take the time to read this. Life is too short to spend being angry all the time.

Enough of chasing that rabbit....

I do think we go into the low 30s here late Saturday night and early Sunday, just below freezing. However, the GFS shows a nice break in the rain while the mercury goes this low, and that might save us from having bridge icing problems. Just be aware that some light bridge icing is very possible as far south as Birmingham Saturday night and Sunday morning in the event rain does fall.

The GFS continues to suggest that much of the day Sunday will be dry, but clouds will linger and we stay cold. I am not totally comfortable taking rain out of the forecast Sunday due to the overrunning situation.

NEXT WEEK: Looks pretty wet. It won't rain every day; the 00Z GFS has rain on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, with dry weather on Tuesday and Thursday. I don't think anyone knows on which days the rain will fall... with the stalled front around and ripples moving along the front, any dry weather won't last long. The cold air will slowly modify, and I don't expect any ice issues down here next week, although we probably won't be as warm as those GFS MOS numbers. Remember, the GFS MOS was forecasting 60 for Saturday here in Birmingham just a few days ago. That will be WRONG by 20 degrees. Use the numbers with caution.

LONGER RANGE: The pattern won't change all that much into early March. Looks like we will be sitting on the southern edge of very cold air that covers much of the U.S. Frequent wet periods look likely, and from time to time some of the cold air will probably nose down in here. Like the 00Z GFS suggests around February 28. Trying to time specific rain events and cold snaps is simply impossible this far ahead.

STORM ALERT 2006: I doubt if I can produce an afternoon map discussion video due to the travel schedule; we will be in Talladega tonight for Storm Alert 2006. We begin at the Ritz Theatre at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a seat. If you live in Anniston/Oxford/Pell City/Sylacauga/Lincoln, or places like that, this is the closest show for you this year.

I will have a little time to crank out an afternoon blog discussion even if I can't get the video done... so ttay tuned!