Weather Brains episode SEVEN (our weekly 30 minute podcast) is on the server:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
In this week's show:
- Alabama's March 13th severe weather event...
- How good of a job do radio stations do covering severe weather?
- The inside scoop on the Brian Peters blowout!
- The role amateur radio operators played during the December 16, 2000 tornado in Tuscaloosa...
- A Hurricane Katrina success story: Alabama ham radio operator Greg Sarratt tells of the work he and fellow hams did in Katrina's aftermath...
- Rebuilding after Katrina: Bill Murray shares his experiences revisiting the Mississippi coast...
- JB Elliott comes clean about doughnuts, Buffalo Rock and coffee...
WeatherBrains Episode Seven
March 16, 2006, 4:27 pmCooler Air Slips In Here Tomorrow
March 16, 2006, 4:20 pm
The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We continue to watch a few sprinkles on the radar this afternoon, mostly south of U.S. 80. Most places around here won't see any rain tonight. And, a new surge of cool and dry air rolls in tonight. Tomorrow should be a sunny day with cooler temperatures.
THE WEEKEND: Clouds will slowly increase on Saturday, and rain should begin Saturday night. That will begin a very wet period, with 2 to 4 inches of rain likely here from Saturday night through Tuesday morning of next week. Sunday promises to be a chilly and wet day, with long periods of rain and temperatures in the 50 to 55 degree range. Not exactly "Chamber of Commerce" weather.
NEXT WEEK: Rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday. I am still doubtful that we see any severe weather around here due to marginal instability in the warm sector of the storm. And, I am not convinced we actually get in the warm sector. But, elevated thunderstorms are likely, and flash flooding could become an issue during the day.
The rain should taper off Monday night, but the 12Z GFS suggests the possibility of some light rain into Tuesday morning in the wrap around moisture on the back side of the system. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday, and there might even be some snow flurries up in Tennessee.
Wednesday and Thursday of next week should be cool and dry. Looks like a light freeze is a good possibility early Wednesday morning.
MORE RAIN: Another wet weather system should impact Alabama at the end of next week (around Friday March 24). The GFS looks different every run, but there could be some snow on the northern periphery of the system over Tennessee. And, yet another shot of chilly air moves in over the following weekend.
BOTTOM LINE: Forget those low 80s for a while. They might not return until the middle of April!
WEATHER BRAINS: David Black has finished putting this week's Weather Brains podcast together; I will have it shortly on iTunes, RSS, and on the web. I will post the link when I get it finished.
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We continue to watch a few sprinkles on the radar this afternoon, mostly south of U.S. 80. Most places around here won't see any rain tonight. And, a new surge of cool and dry air rolls in tonight. Tomorrow should be a sunny day with cooler temperatures.
THE WEEKEND: Clouds will slowly increase on Saturday, and rain should begin Saturday night. That will begin a very wet period, with 2 to 4 inches of rain likely here from Saturday night through Tuesday morning of next week. Sunday promises to be a chilly and wet day, with long periods of rain and temperatures in the 50 to 55 degree range. Not exactly "Chamber of Commerce" weather.
NEXT WEEK: Rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday. I am still doubtful that we see any severe weather around here due to marginal instability in the warm sector of the storm. And, I am not convinced we actually get in the warm sector. But, elevated thunderstorms are likely, and flash flooding could become an issue during the day.
The rain should taper off Monday night, but the 12Z GFS suggests the possibility of some light rain into Tuesday morning in the wrap around moisture on the back side of the system. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday, and there might even be some snow flurries up in Tennessee.
Wednesday and Thursday of next week should be cool and dry. Looks like a light freeze is a good possibility early Wednesday morning.
MORE RAIN: Another wet weather system should impact Alabama at the end of next week (around Friday March 24). The GFS looks different every run, but there could be some snow on the northern periphery of the system over Tennessee. And, yet another shot of chilly air moves in over the following weekend.
BOTTOM LINE: Forget those low 80s for a while. They might not return until the middle of April!
WEATHER BRAINS: David Black has finished putting this week's Weather Brains podcast together; I will have it shortly on iTunes, RSS, and on the web. I will post the link when I get it finished.
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
Fun At Gaylesville School
March 16, 2006, 11:38 am
The kids at Gaylesville School up in Cherokee County sure did a great job with hospitality yesterday! Check it out...
by James Spann
in On The Road
WEATHER BY THE NUMBERS + Other Stuff
March 16, 2006, 11:31 am
* 1 is the number of blowouts that Brian Peters has experienced while driving. Unfortunately it happened while storm chasing with the 33/40 weather van late Monday near Winfield. Fortunately, it was a rear tire and Brian brought it under control easily.
* 18 inches is how much snow has fallen at Layton, Utah in a week-long series of three storms. Matt Marshall, who lives there and frequently reads our material, said his commute from Layton to Salt Lake took two hours. That is only a 20-mile trip straight down I-15. Matt also happens to be a neighbor of my sister-in-law and her family.
* 3 is the dew point in Canadian, Texas in the Panhandle with brisk, dry NW winds. (Extremely, extremely dry) The wildfires (grass and brush fires) in the Texas Panhandle, are of grave concern. A number of towns may have to evacuate. Canadian is located on the Canadian River, which is often just a dry riverbed.
* 3 to 5 is the number of inches of snow expected in downtown Chicago this afternoon and evening with 4 to 8 inches a little further north closer to the Wisconsin border.
* 133 is the number of inches of snow on the ground at Alta, Utah this morning after about 15 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. Alta is a ski area in the Wasatch Mountains.
* 40 is my estimate of how many basketball games Jason Simpson will watch on TV during March Madness.
* 71 is the percent of the earth's surface that is covered by water.
* 29 is the percent covered by land.
* 29,208 feet is the highest elevation on earth. (Mt. Everest)
* 1,312 feet BELOW SEA LEVEL is the lowest elevation on earth. (Dead Sea)
* 2,407 feeet is the highest elevation in Alabama. (Mt. Cheaha)
* 5 is the number of cups of coffee I have had today. The last one was cinnamon flavored. (semi-yuck
. Forecast: Will probably pour the entire pot down the drain shortly.
* 88 is the number of people per square mile in Alabama. (population density)
* 5 is the number for Wyoming.
* 1 is the number for Alaska. That means Alabama has about 88 times more people per square mile than Alaska.
* 2 to 3 inches is the possible amount of rain Central Alabama will get, mainly during Sunday and Monday.
* 40 below zero was the low in Alaska this morning at Northway.
* 5 below was the low in Craig, Colorado, coldest in the lower 4 dozen.
* 85 was the warm spot yesterday in Ft. Myers, Florida.
* 0 is the number of times I have played with Little Miss Molly this morning and she does not like it in the least.
* 18 inches is how much snow has fallen at Layton, Utah in a week-long series of three storms. Matt Marshall, who lives there and frequently reads our material, said his commute from Layton to Salt Lake took two hours. That is only a 20-mile trip straight down I-15. Matt also happens to be a neighbor of my sister-in-law and her family.
* 3 is the dew point in Canadian, Texas in the Panhandle with brisk, dry NW winds. (Extremely, extremely dry) The wildfires (grass and brush fires) in the Texas Panhandle, are of grave concern. A number of towns may have to evacuate. Canadian is located on the Canadian River, which is often just a dry riverbed.
* 3 to 5 is the number of inches of snow expected in downtown Chicago this afternoon and evening with 4 to 8 inches a little further north closer to the Wisconsin border.
* 133 is the number of inches of snow on the ground at Alta, Utah this morning after about 15 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. Alta is a ski area in the Wasatch Mountains.
* 40 is my estimate of how many basketball games Jason Simpson will watch on TV during March Madness.
* 71 is the percent of the earth's surface that is covered by water.
* 29 is the percent covered by land.
* 29,208 feet is the highest elevation on earth. (Mt. Everest)
* 1,312 feet BELOW SEA LEVEL is the lowest elevation on earth. (Dead Sea)
* 2,407 feeet is the highest elevation in Alabama. (Mt. Cheaha)
* 5 is the number of cups of coffee I have had today. The last one was cinnamon flavored. (semi-yuck
. Forecast: Will probably pour the entire pot down the drain shortly. * 88 is the number of people per square mile in Alabama. (population density)
* 5 is the number for Wyoming.
* 1 is the number for Alaska. That means Alabama has about 88 times more people per square mile than Alaska.
* 2 to 3 inches is the possible amount of rain Central Alabama will get, mainly during Sunday and Monday.
* 40 below zero was the low in Alaska this morning at Northway.
* 5 below was the low in Craig, Colorado, coldest in the lower 4 dozen.
* 85 was the warm spot yesterday in Ft. Myers, Florida.
* 0 is the number of times I have played with Little Miss Molly this morning and she does not like it in the least.
SKYWARN Training Today
March 16, 2006, 8:12 am
Getting caught up on important notes!
SKYWARN training is today in Marion County:
http://www.marioncert.org/
If you live somewhere around Hamilton and want to learn how to spot severe storms, you need to be there! We always need more trained spotters!
SKYWARN training is today in Marion County:
http://www.marioncert.org/
If you live somewhere around Hamilton and want to learn how to spot severe storms, you need to be there! We always need more trained spotters!
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Storm Survey Reports
March 16, 2006, 7:46 am
I dont think this has been posted here so far... this is the survey report from the NWS team looking at Monday's damage:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006
...TWO SUPERCELLS PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
TWO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MOVED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...FROM APPROXIMATELY 3:30 PM UNTIL 9:00 PM. SUPERCELLS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND CONTAIN PERSISTENT
ROTATION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TYPICALLY THE MOST DAMAGING AND
CAN PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BEHIND THESE SUPERCELLS...BUT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED MAINLY PEA SIZED HAIL AND A BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOUR. SUPERCELL 1 STARTED IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE IT
PRODUCED AT LEAST FOUR TORNADOES IN MONTGOMERY...WEBSTER...AND CLAY
COUNTIES. THE STORM THEN ENTERED LAMAR COUNTY NEAR SULLIGENT...AND
DISSIPATED IN ETOWAH COUNTY NEAR RAINBOW CITY. SUPERCELL 2 FORMED IN
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ENTERED LAMAR COUNTY NEAR MILLPORT AND
DISSIPATED IN ST. CLAIR COUNTY NEAR MOODY.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AT 2:05 PM AND WAS VALID UNTIL 8:00
PM. A SECOND TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA FROM
5:55 PM AND WAS VALID UNTIL 11:00 PM. ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WERE INCLUDED IN A TORNADO WATCH AT SOME POINT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS PERFORMED GROUND AND AERIAL
SURVEYS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. GENERALLY MINOR DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTIES. NO MAJOR DAMAGE OR
INJURIES OCCURRED WITH THESE STORMS.
FAYETTE COUNTY...SUPERCELL 1 MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN FAYETTE
COUNTY. AT 4:54 PM...AN F1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
EAST OF GLEN ALLEN IN FAR NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY. THE TORNADO
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD WHERE IN UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES ALONG ITS
PATH. THE TORNADO CROSSED COUNTY ROAD 65 AND COUNTY ROAD 53 BEFORE
ENDING NEAR ELDRIDGE ROAD AT 4:57 PM. THE TORNADO DAMAGE PATH WAS 1.5
MILES LONG AND 50 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
WALKER COUNTY...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE RECEIVED AS
SUPERCELL 1 MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY. AT 5:39 PM...AN F1
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 1.5 MILES EAST OF THE CURRY
COMMUNITY ALONG BURROWS CROSSING ROAD. THE TORNADO COMPLETELY
DESTROYED ONE BARN AND SHEET METAL WAS STREWN DOWNSTREAM OVER 300
YARDS. ONE OTHER BARN WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED AND A FEW TREES WERE
BLOWN DOWN. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED IN LESS THAN ONE MINUTE. THE
TORNADO DAMAGE PATH WAS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE LONG AND 25
YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...SUPERCELL 2 MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY NEAR THE FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTY LINES. AT APPROXIMATELY
5:54 PM...AN FO TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN RURAL NORTHERN
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY JUST EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 43. THIS LOCATION IS 9.5
MILES NORTH OF SAMANTHA. THE TORNADO PRODUCED LITTLE TO NO DAMAGE. A
STORM SPOTTER CAPTURED IMAGES OF THE TORNADO. THE TORNADO DAMAGE
PATH WAS 0.1 MILES LONG AND 20 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
THE SURVEYS AND EVALUATIONS ARE STILL ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE RELEASED WHEN COMPLETE.
FOR ADDITIONAL STORM SURVEY OR PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...VISIT THE
BIRMINGHAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX.
DAMAGE PHOTOS AND RADAR IMAGES WILL BE ADDED AS TIME PERMITS.
And... this is from the NWS in Hiuntsville concerning the Cullman County damage:
The initial touch down was along county road 501 about 13 miles south-southwest of Cullman, just east of I-65, about 2 miles east-southeast of the I-65 291 exit. The tornado initially knocked down a few trees in this area and had a path length of 75 yards and a 50 yard path width. Winds were at 70 mph, making it a F-0 tornado. The tornado lifted and then touched down briefly again along county road 504, (attached image) about 11 miles south of Cullman. The path length of the F-0 tornado with winds topping out at 60 mph was at 20 yards in length and 20 yard width. The tornado again quickly lifted and then touched down again about 4 miles northeast of the previous touch down, along the north end of county road 506, about 9 miles southeast of Cullman. The path length was again around 20 yards and path width at 20 yards. Again, the tornado was an F-0 with max speeds at 60 mph.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006
...TWO SUPERCELLS PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
TWO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MOVED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...FROM APPROXIMATELY 3:30 PM UNTIL 9:00 PM. SUPERCELLS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND CONTAIN PERSISTENT
ROTATION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TYPICALLY THE MOST DAMAGING AND
CAN PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BEHIND THESE SUPERCELLS...BUT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED MAINLY PEA SIZED HAIL AND A BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOUR. SUPERCELL 1 STARTED IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE IT
PRODUCED AT LEAST FOUR TORNADOES IN MONTGOMERY...WEBSTER...AND CLAY
COUNTIES. THE STORM THEN ENTERED LAMAR COUNTY NEAR SULLIGENT...AND
DISSIPATED IN ETOWAH COUNTY NEAR RAINBOW CITY. SUPERCELL 2 FORMED IN
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ENTERED LAMAR COUNTY NEAR MILLPORT AND
DISSIPATED IN ST. CLAIR COUNTY NEAR MOODY.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AT 2:05 PM AND WAS VALID UNTIL 8:00
PM. A SECOND TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA FROM
5:55 PM AND WAS VALID UNTIL 11:00 PM. ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WERE INCLUDED IN A TORNADO WATCH AT SOME POINT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS PERFORMED GROUND AND AERIAL
SURVEYS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. GENERALLY MINOR DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTIES. NO MAJOR DAMAGE OR
INJURIES OCCURRED WITH THESE STORMS.
FAYETTE COUNTY...SUPERCELL 1 MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN FAYETTE
COUNTY. AT 4:54 PM...AN F1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
EAST OF GLEN ALLEN IN FAR NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY. THE TORNADO
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD WHERE IN UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES ALONG ITS
PATH. THE TORNADO CROSSED COUNTY ROAD 65 AND COUNTY ROAD 53 BEFORE
ENDING NEAR ELDRIDGE ROAD AT 4:57 PM. THE TORNADO DAMAGE PATH WAS 1.5
MILES LONG AND 50 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
WALKER COUNTY...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE RECEIVED AS
SUPERCELL 1 MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY. AT 5:39 PM...AN F1
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 1.5 MILES EAST OF THE CURRY
COMMUNITY ALONG BURROWS CROSSING ROAD. THE TORNADO COMPLETELY
DESTROYED ONE BARN AND SHEET METAL WAS STREWN DOWNSTREAM OVER 300
YARDS. ONE OTHER BARN WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED AND A FEW TREES WERE
BLOWN DOWN. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED IN LESS THAN ONE MINUTE. THE
TORNADO DAMAGE PATH WAS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE LONG AND 25
YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...SUPERCELL 2 MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY NEAR THE FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTY LINES. AT APPROXIMATELY
5:54 PM...AN FO TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN RURAL NORTHERN
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY JUST EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 43. THIS LOCATION IS 9.5
MILES NORTH OF SAMANTHA. THE TORNADO PRODUCED LITTLE TO NO DAMAGE. A
STORM SPOTTER CAPTURED IMAGES OF THE TORNADO. THE TORNADO DAMAGE
PATH WAS 0.1 MILES LONG AND 20 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
THE SURVEYS AND EVALUATIONS ARE STILL ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE RELEASED WHEN COMPLETE.
FOR ADDITIONAL STORM SURVEY OR PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...VISIT THE
BIRMINGHAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX.
DAMAGE PHOTOS AND RADAR IMAGES WILL BE ADDED AS TIME PERMITS.
And... this is from the NWS in Hiuntsville concerning the Cullman County damage:
The initial touch down was along county road 501 about 13 miles south-southwest of Cullman, just east of I-65, about 2 miles east-southeast of the I-65 291 exit. The tornado initially knocked down a few trees in this area and had a path length of 75 yards and a 50 yard path width. Winds were at 70 mph, making it a F-0 tornado. The tornado lifted and then touched down briefly again along county road 504, (attached image) about 11 miles south of Cullman. The path length of the F-0 tornado with winds topping out at 60 mph was at 20 yards in length and 20 yard width. The tornado again quickly lifted and then touched down again about 4 miles northeast of the previous touch down, along the north end of county road 506, about 9 miles southeast of Cullman. The path length was again around 20 yards and path width at 20 yards. Again, the tornado was an F-0 with max speeds at 60 mph.
by James Spann
in Severe Weather
Clouds, But Not Much Rain Today
March 16, 2006, 7:27 am
The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
As March weather systems go, the one passing through today is pretty much a wimp. Clouds, maybe a few sprinkles, and that is about it.
A fresh surge of cooler and drier air rolls in here late tonight, and tomorrow should be a mostly sunny but cool day for Alabama.
But, interesting times are ahead....
THE WEEKEND: Clouds roll in here on Saturday, and some rain should reach the state Saturday night as a major late winter storm continues to develop and strengthen over the southwest U.S. Sunday looks very cool, and very wet. Rain should fall much of the day with temperatures holding in the low 50s. Looks like a great afternoon for a long Sunday nap.
Not much doubt Monday will be wet. Probably very wet. But, will we have any risk of severe storms? A close call on us breaking into the warm sector. The 06Z GFS runs the surface low from Tyler, Texas to Tupelo, which could keep the warm sector mainly over the southern half of the state. And, even down in South Alabama the quality of the warm sector is very much in question; I just don't know if we can get mid 60 dewpoints in here. For now we will mention a good chance of rain and thunderstorms... we can adjust the severe weather threat as we get closer.
We might have an issue with flash flooding before the rain ends late Monday night; amounts of 2 to 4 inches sure look possible over the northern half of the state from Saturday night through Monday night.
MIDDLE OF SPRING BREAK WEEK: This period, Tuesday through Thursday, should be dry but cool.
END OF SPRING BREAK WEEK: We get wet again. This time, a storm system will move through the northern Gulf of Mexico, with rain Friday into Saturday. And yes, there continue to be hints of snow on the northern periphery of this system. Late March snow flakes over North Alabama? Stranger things have happened... but lets wait before we jump on that idea.
LONG RANGE: The 06Z GFS shows a very cold upper trough over the eastern U.S. at the first of April. I doubt if we see low 80s again until sometime in mid-April. This past weekend was just a tease... temperatures should be cooler than normal here on an average basis for the next three weeks.
I will be back on a somewhat normal schedule today; I have a big midday meeting, and will be in the office in plenty of time to get everything updated by 3:30 as usual. Yesterday was one of those long days...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
As March weather systems go, the one passing through today is pretty much a wimp. Clouds, maybe a few sprinkles, and that is about it.
A fresh surge of cooler and drier air rolls in here late tonight, and tomorrow should be a mostly sunny but cool day for Alabama.
But, interesting times are ahead....
THE WEEKEND: Clouds roll in here on Saturday, and some rain should reach the state Saturday night as a major late winter storm continues to develop and strengthen over the southwest U.S. Sunday looks very cool, and very wet. Rain should fall much of the day with temperatures holding in the low 50s. Looks like a great afternoon for a long Sunday nap.
Not much doubt Monday will be wet. Probably very wet. But, will we have any risk of severe storms? A close call on us breaking into the warm sector. The 06Z GFS runs the surface low from Tyler, Texas to Tupelo, which could keep the warm sector mainly over the southern half of the state. And, even down in South Alabama the quality of the warm sector is very much in question; I just don't know if we can get mid 60 dewpoints in here. For now we will mention a good chance of rain and thunderstorms... we can adjust the severe weather threat as we get closer.
We might have an issue with flash flooding before the rain ends late Monday night; amounts of 2 to 4 inches sure look possible over the northern half of the state from Saturday night through Monday night.
MIDDLE OF SPRING BREAK WEEK: This period, Tuesday through Thursday, should be dry but cool.
END OF SPRING BREAK WEEK: We get wet again. This time, a storm system will move through the northern Gulf of Mexico, with rain Friday into Saturday. And yes, there continue to be hints of snow on the northern periphery of this system. Late March snow flakes over North Alabama? Stranger things have happened... but lets wait before we jump on that idea.
LONG RANGE: The 06Z GFS shows a very cold upper trough over the eastern U.S. at the first of April. I doubt if we see low 80s again until sometime in mid-April. This past weekend was just a tease... temperatures should be cooler than normal here on an average basis for the next three weeks.
I will be back on a somewhat normal schedule today; I have a big midday meeting, and will be in the office in plenty of time to get everything updated by 3:30 as usual. Yesterday was one of those long days...
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