Forecast for Victory

Today, we take seven day forecasts for granted. It takes a lot of technology to make that happen. Satellites, numerical weather prediction models and world-wide weather observations. None of that existed in 1943 as Allied military commanders gathered to plan the invasion of Europe. In fact, a forecast for more than twenty four hours in advance was laughable. But Allied meteorologists, including the famed Sverre Pettersen thought they knew better.

The first decision was what time of year to stage the invasion. Examination of historical weather records indicated that the best odds for favorable conditions would exist in June. A preliminary date of May 31st was chosen by meteorologists in conjunction with military leaders. Weather conditions would determine the actual date for the invasion.

A joint Allied meteorological team consisting of British and American forecasters was established in April 1944 with orders to begin creating trial forecasts for the invasion. On this date, the forecasters made their first official presentation of a five day forecast to the Allied Commanders. A correct weather forecast would be critical to the success of the invasion.

A period of calm weather was what the commanders were looking for. They got it in May, but it was not time. Early June started off stormy. Forecasters saw an opportunity for good weather on June 6th. The recommendation was made to General Eisenhower. He agreed. It turned out to be a perfect forecast.

Thank goodness!


Saturday Tornadoes Across the Nation's Midsection

Tornadoes were reported over parts of the Midwest on Saturday, but fortunately there were no major injuries or fatalities.

At least 18 tornado reports were received yesterday through the overnight hours.

Storm Chaser Shane Adams described the tornado near Beatrice, Nebraska as a large, truncated cone with lots of debris. This was the most significant tornado of the day apparently caused dome damage, but no injuries. Storm Chaser Matt Patterson posted this excellent video of the tornado. See it at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdI71EYVr8c.

It was a scary time for awhile as storms bore down on the Lincoln area where the Nebraska Cornhuskers were playing their Spring Football Game, but fortunately the worst of the storms passed to their south. Storm chasers were frustrated by heavy traffic on the interstate between Lincoln and Omaha.

Tornado touchdowns were reported in Northeast Kansas, but major damage was not reported. A man in Brown County, KS reportedly called the NWS saying that a tornado had passed directly over his house, taking the roof with it.

An amazing supercell skirted the northern part of Kansas City, Missouri around 8 p.m. Severe reports of funnel clouds and tornado touchdowns were noted with this long lived storm. But checks of Kansas City media outlets this morning reveal no significant reports of damage or injuries.

Severe weather is possible over a wide area from eastern Missouri and Iowa across much of Illinois, Inidiana, Kentucky, west Virginia, southern Ohio and then southeastward across Virginia and North Carolina. An upper level trough will be the culprit, turning southeastward around the periphery of a large upper level trough anchored over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

Interesting to see the NWS in Omaha frequently using the call to action in their warnings that people should not use highway overpasses as tornado shelters. They do not provide adequate shelter and can block traffic lanes, turning interstates into deathtraps for others. One place you do not want to be in a tornado is in an automobile.

Another interesting note: a Weather Chanel photo crew was arrested for failing to leave the site where a McMinnville, Tennessee woman died in last Friday's tornado. The victim's family said that they refused to leave after numerous requests. It is unclear if they were actual Weather Chanel staffers or contract photojournalists. Covering the news is important, but sensitivity to victims is paramount, in my humble opinion.


Sunday Morning Notes

With Brian down at the beach... I thought I would post a few quick Sunday morning notes...

*Happy Easter. I am about to head down to Hunter Street (my church); we expect a crowd of 700 today in my worship services (that is 700 KIDS in 1st through 6th grade!). The crowd campus-wide should easliy exceed 5,000. There is plenty of room for YOU if you want to join us!

*The weather still looks very warm through Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s. The weather also should stay dry through Tuesday.

*SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the northern third of the state Wednesday thanks to a passing cold front. Not a classic severe weather setup, but we will be paying close attention as the event gets closer.

*Thursday looks like a very nice day, with ample sunshine and cooler temperatures. No more 80s after Wednesday for a while.

*Some rain is possible at times on Friday and Saturday as moisture returns and a few waves move through the zonal flow overhead.

I will have a map discussion video posted early tomorrow morning by 7:00.... have a great day!


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