Our storms across Central Alabama are winding down this afternoon...except for one...

A nice little storm...still getting stronger...is approaching Lake Logan Martin. It is just north of Lincoln, heading WSW directly toward the lake.

Boaters and people on the lake and Coosa River should take cover as this storm approaches. Deadly lightning will be a major problem.

Another storm is about to pass through Oxford.

A small storm is along the Jefferson/Walker County line south of Oakman.

Over West Alabama...a couple of storms are over Pickens County.

Everything else is dying down...

Scattered showers and storms continue across Central Alabama this afternoon.

Some lucky spots have gotten nice rainfall in a short period of time...like West Hueytown, where ABC3340 WeatherWatcher John reports 1.67 inches in just 45 minutes from the western Jefferson County storm that started around 2:30 p.m.

We actually got 0.04 of an inch here in Trussville about 15 minutes ago.

From east to west...the more significant storms...

...a new little storm northeast of Lineville...
...just west of Ashland in Clay County...
...a nice cluster of storms on the Bibb/Shelby County line northwest of Montevallo...
...in northern Bibb County from north of Brent back toward Coaling and Vance...
...a new little storm just east of the city of Tuscaloosa...
...a nice storm near Columbus MS...

Everything is moving south by southwest slowly and generally dies befor eit can get to you...so hope one forms near you.

Anyway...enjoy the rain if you are lucky...stay away from the lightning.

Showers and storms continue to be fairly numerous across Central Alabam this afternoon.

The heaviest storm is one that quickloy developed between Leeds and Moody. It is moving southwestward. It already seems to be going downhill.

Activity over western Jefferson County has become more widespread and heavier as it intersects an outflow boundary from storms over Tuscaloosa County.

A new storm has formed between Coumbiana and Calera in Shelby County.

Activity is intensifying over southern Lamar County as it moves into northern Pickens County.

Other storms are forming and gaining strength to the east of Birmingham along I-20 to near Anniston.

Be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions, especially growing cumulus clouds near you that could quickly become thunderstorms. Lightning will be the major threat.

Showers continue to slowly build across Central Alabama this afternoon.

They are fairly numerous over Pickens, Fayette and Tuscaloosa Counties and over eastern Jefferson, Blount, St. Clair and eastern Shelby Counties.

New showers are popping up over Etowah and Calhoun Counties.

The heaviest activity, which includes a couple of thunderstorms, was just east of Fayette and over southern St. Clair County along highway 231 south of Pell City.

Nice showers are just east of I-459 from Leeds back toward Liberty Park.

A developing storm was between Pinson and Fultondale in northern Jefferson County.

Activity is moving generally to the south and southwest.

James reported 0.12 from a good shower a short time ago in Greystone Farms in North Shelby County.

You can expect additional showers and storms to develop during the next few hours over Central Alabama in association with a mid level trough in the atmosphere.

Mid level clouds have been thickening and growing across North Central Alabama this morning.

They are associated with a trough of low pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

A few light showers are even shoing up from some of the more developed clouds. They are showing up barely on radar over northeastern Jefferson County, parts of Fayette County and Walker County.

Hopefully they will continue to develop into showers and storms. The increased cloudiness will certainly help take the edge off the hot temperatures we have been experiencing.

This is one forecast I would not mind busting...

It is very rare that I get to update the sacred list of all-time state highs and lows...yesterday may have been one of those occasions...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
500 PM MDT SAT JUL 15 2006

...POSSIBLE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED FOR THE STATE OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...

A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 120 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT A NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE COOPERATIVE WEATHER SITE THIS AFTERNOON...LOCATED 8 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF USTA. IF THIS TEMPERATURE IS OFFICIALLY
VERIFIED...IT WILL TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. ON JULY 5 1936...GANN VALLEY SET THE RECORD
OF 120 DEGREES.

All time record highs were established at the Rapid City Airport (111F), Pierre (117F) and Timber Lake (107F). The 116F at Mobridge tied their all time record high.

A cold front will bring cooler weather to South Dakota today, with highs some 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, but that still means highs around 100F!

Many thanks to J.B. and John for pointing out these important tidbits.

Please note that there is no video map discussion this morning. Happy to have a connection up at Mt. Cheaha, but it is just not enough to be able to get a video uploaded. James should have the next video posted tomorrow morning bright and early.

MT. CHEAHA ADVENTURE: Good morning once again from Mt. Cheaha State Park. I'm again sitting by the pool which is as still as a mirror with a temperature around 71 degrees according to my vehicle's thermometer. Feels nice - just humid.

Wow, what an afternoon and early evening we had on Alabama's highest point. I don't know how much rain fell up here, but it came down in buckets. And the lightning was so close that the flash and the thunder came simultaneously. We had driven down to Anniston and Oxford yesterday morning and had a small shower around noon near Alexandria. After a nice sandwich for lunch and a stop for some vegetables at a farmer's market, we proceeded back up the mountain.

The trip treated us to a number of great views of rain off in the distance, and we could not see the big point, so we weren't sure if it was raining there or just between us and there. When we got back to the campsite, we had hardly made it into the trailer when the sky opened up in grand fashion. That's when we had the lightning and the power went out. Fortunately the power was only out for about two and a half hours and came back on just before dark. No wind with the storm at least where we were. Temperature dropped close to 20 degrees with the heavy rain.

Before sunset and after the rain, we were treated to a grand view looking out from the lodge area on the valley below with mist curling up from the trees following the rain. I took a bunch of pictures which I'll try to go through and post some on the Blog later. And we had a four-legged visitor to our campsite. Just as we were leaving to sample the view after the storm, a full grown doe walked right into the camping area. She seemed to have no fear of us, and I took a couple of pictures in limited light with the deer only about 20 feet away from me. On the short trip to the lodge area, we saw two more deer chomping some supper along the side of the road.

TROPICS: Tropics remain quiet at this time. No suspicious areas to be watchful of. But we've passed the middle of July, so August and September, the heart of hurricane season, are just around the corner. I think we'd had four or five storms at this time last year.

WEEK AHEAD: It looks like our best chances for rain in Central Alabama were yesterday. I noticed Bill Murray estimated that about 80 percent of the area got rain yesterday. I did not see much radar during the storms yesterday afternoon, so I'll have to go with his estimate. Not everyone got rain yesterday, though, the character of summer thunderstorms.

Today and through much of the upcoming week we might see an isolated storm, but chances are going to be pretty slim. The upper air trough that helped to enhance rain chances yesterday should be located in the Montgomery area by early afternoon, so South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle will have the best chances for storms today and this evening. After that, the weather settles into a summer pattern with a big heat bubble high just off to our west and northwest centered over the Central Plains. Look for temperaures to remain in the 90s - mid 90s for most of us.

Interesting to note that the GFS is once again forecasting an upper level trough over the eastern half of the country by next Saturday. This could bring a weak cold front into the Southeast which would certainly be welcome since it could improve our rain chances and perhaps bring a slight cooling to the summer heat. The GFS has been pretty good in its forecasts for the last several months, so I'm hoping the GFS will be right on this even if the timing might be off a little that far out.

HEADED HOME: Well, Jane and I will be packing up the trailer this morning and heading home. Really hate to leave this wonderful spot - it is so cleansing to the mind and spirit especially with the beautiful views that we've been treated to during the last couple of days. I'll be filling in tonight for John or Jason or James, not sure which one was going to be working tonight. Aw, the plight of the part-time fill-in guy!!

SPOTTER TRAINING: Oh, and don't forget that I'll be doing a spotter training session in Calhoun County at the EMA office in Jacksonville next Saturday at 10 am. If you are interested in learning more about severe weather and what you can look for during bad weather, take a couple of hours out and join us next Saturday.

-Brian-

As many of you may know, my day job is the hotel business.  This week, a team of people from my company, Integral Hospitality Solutions, was in Miami for a Holiday Inn Hurricane Preparedness Seminar. 

The events of the last two years have made the hospitality industry rethink its role in hurricane zones.  Many hotels have traditionally decided to remain open in mandatory evacuation areas in order to make themselves available to evacuees.  Images of the Holiday Inn in Punta Gorda, Florida after Hurricane Charley and the Hyatt at the Superdome are making operators and local officials reconsider this position.

Sixty hotel General Managers from properties in Florida and the Caribbean convened at the Holiday Inn Miami Airport Thursday to review preparedness plans and share best practices.  It was an interesting and productive day.

When I found out about the conference, I scheduled a team of our Directors of Operation and General Managers to attend.  With me, I had Kenneth Stovall, Rusti Price and Mike Wurster from our company. 

Having never been to the National Hurricane Center, I emailed Director Max Mayfield and asked if we could tour the Center and take him to lunch.  Much to my delight, he said yes.  We planned it for Friday. 

The impressive facility is on the campus of Florida International University, about eight miles southwest of the Miami International Airport.  We arrived at 11 a.m., and signed in with security. 

Max came out to meet us with Frank Lepore, the Public Affairs Officer for the NHC.  Max told us that he had a few fires to put out and would join us for lunch.  Frank would be our tour guide, and an able one he was.  His job is to coordinate all of the media requests and activities at the Center. 

The facility was opened in 1994.  It was being designed in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew passed very near the previous facility which was in Coral Gables.  The Center was in a multi-story office building.  It had generators that powered lighting and the computer equipment and the air conditioning.  But there was no power for the pumps that moved water through the six story building and to the roof where the air conditioning system chillers were located.  It was starting to get warm, and the toilets would not work. 

Worried about their families, the specialists at the Hurricane Center were working under nearly impossible conditions as Hurricane Andrew crossed into the Gulf and headed toward Louisiana. 

Lessons learned from the situation were incorporated into the design of the new facility.  The building’s walls are ten inch thick concrete, designed to withstand a Category Five hurricane.   Frank showed up the various ways that the building had been hardened, including the thick walls.  There is an interior tornado shelter that has twenty inch thick concrete walls.  The glass windows are one and one half inch thick and are locked into thick steel frames.  The doors to the facility look like they belong on a bank vault. 

Frank Lepore, Public Affairs Officer at NHC shows us "Dr. Bob's Bunker"

There are triple redundant generators that power the entire two story building, including the air conditioning systems.  Two independent sets of telephone and fiber optic cables entire the building from different directions and exchanges.  The building is designed to withstand a hurricane that is stronger than Hurricane Andrew and its 170 mph winds. 

Next, Frank took us to the Media Room, a large auditorium with tables where the world’s media assembles when a hurricane threatens.  Individual cables for each position are in the floor, and allows each media outlet to directly get their feed out to their station or network.  Briefings are conducted here on a regular basis during storms. 

Frank Lepore shows us the Media Room at the NHC

Just on the other side of the room is the Forecasting Center.  At the front of this large open room is the desk where the Director or his Assistant does on camera feeds to the world.  The desk has a large plasma television you are very familiar with if you have ever seen broadcasts from the National Hurricane Center.  Any piece of data can be displayed on the monitor so that clear explanations can be given. 

You've seen this desk before...

The day is broken into 180 four minute segments.  It is Frank’s job to schedule the individual interviews as well as all other media requests. 

The room is dominated by the huge light blue and tan map that shows all of the expanses of the world for which the National Hurricane Center is responsible.  It includes all of the North Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific to about 1,000 miles east of Hawaii. 

The main forecasting room at NHC

Already there is one storm listed on the board on the right, which lists the Atlantic storms.  It is Alberto, which made landfall in the Florida Big Bend area a few weeks ago.  Friday there were two hurricanes in progress in the eastern Pacific.  One of the new, young Hurricane Specialists, Dr. Chris Landsea was working the Pacific desk.  The room is divided into Atlantic on the left and Pacific on the right. 

 

Dr. Chris Landsea working the Pacific desk

Both work areas are covered in flat screen computer monitors that display the latest satellite imagery, computer models and radar data.  Both feature full AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) stations.  This puts a world of weather data at the Hurricane Specialist’s fingertips every second.

The amount of data is mind boggling.  The National Weather Service is now archiving enough weather data every single year to fill FOUR Libraries of Congress.  

We had the pleasure of meeting another one of the icons at the Hurricane Center, Dr. Lixion Avilia.  He was busy working, but took time to show us some impressive data displays. 

Next, we went over to the Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Bureau.  Along with the National Hurricane Center, the TAFB makes up the other half of the Tropical Prediction Center, the official name for the Miami facility.  The TAFB is responsible for producing marine forecasts, tropical weather discussions and surface analyses.  These forecasts are made available to mariners through a variety of sources, including radiofax. 

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Bureau

The discussion turned to the density of surface reports along coastal areas, especially in the United States, as compared to the density over the open oceans.  Only a few ship reports and aircraft reports are available for map analysis.   Frank explained that satellites are cleared the most important innovation in tropical forecasting in the last fifty years, while computer modeling is the most vital in the past twenty. 

Explaining the Dvorak technique

Before satellites, ship and surface station reports were critical in identifying tropical storms and hurricanes.  By the late 1940s, aircraft were flying regular reconnaissance legs across the open oceans looking for disturbances that might advance into mature tropical cyclones.  Satellites, especially the arrival of the Polar Orbiting satellites in the mid 1960s, put an end to surprise storms. 

Frank explained the Dvorak technique, in which forecasters estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones by classifying the storms’ cloud patterns.  The technique is very effective and important, since aircraft reconnaissance missions are only run in the Atlantic now, and only when storms get within about 1,000 miles of the islands. 

Then we visited the parts of the facility that houses the Miami National Weather Service Forecast Office.  We saw the modern All-Hazards Radio equipment (what used to be known as NOAA Weather Radio.)  Frank explained how all of the modern technology allows the meteorologists to be much more efficient than in the old days.  As J.B. can attest, a meteorologist would have to go to the radar in one part of the room, check the latest surface conditions on a console and go type a message on an old-fashioned teletype machine, then record it manually on tapes on the NOAA Weatheradio. 

Now, the forecaster has everything that he or she needs at his or her AWIPS terminal.  Templates are pulled up to create warnings.  They are flashed around the system simply by hitting a button.   Now, the AHR terminal receives a warning message and instantly puts it into an automatically concatenated voice.  It may not be the most pleasant thing to listen to, but it is accurate and instantaneous.  Warnings are out in seconds, and seconds count. 

It is certainly more efficient, but as James mentioned on the Weather Brains podcast this week, it certainly misses J.B.'s personality.

Frank discussing advances in forecasting with Bill Murray and Rusti Price

Other tasks, such as creating hourly weather roundups of temperature, humidity, wind and sky cover are now automated. 

More tomorrow.  including some interesting thoughts from Max Mayfield...

Earlier tonight on our conference chats, J.B. was marvelling at some of the high tempertaures today across the Northern Plains and out in Death Valley.

He pointed out that it was 117F in Pierre, South Dakota. A quick check revealed that this sizzling high was just three degrees short of the all time record high for the state, which was 120F set on July 5 1936 in Gann Valley.

It's not often you see a state record high threatened like that.

In addition, J.B. pointed out that the high of 125F in Death Valley today was just 9 degrees short of the all time record high for the United States. It was 134F in Death Valley on July 10, 1913. The 134F reading at Greenland Ranch - Death Valley is questioned by some experts as you see below. Given the information below, Saturday's high may have been even closer to the all time U.S. record.

ON JULY 16, 2002: Death Valley/Furnace Creek, California reached 127F (the morning low was 81F). This is only one degree lower than its record high of 128F since 1913. (Death Valley/Greenland Ranch had five maximums ranging from 129F to 134F in July, 1913, but these extremely high observations are not supported by the maximums at surrounding stations during the same period.)

Trustworthy readings of 128F were attained in Death Valley in July, 1972, and in June, 1994. In June, 1994, a park ranger measured 131F at Badwater in Death Valley with a sling psychrometer. Badwater is typically a few degrees hotter than Furnace Creek on summer afternoons.

Other memorable readings from this very hot day: 126 at Bullhead City AZ (just two degrees short of the all-time Arizona record of 128F). Las Vegas, NV reached 116F, just one degree shy of its all-time maximum of 117F. The record temps were the result of an unusually strong upper-level high pressure system that was sprawling over the Southwest.