The powerful U.S. Third Fleet under Admiral had just won the Battle of Leyte and was steaming east to get out of range of Japanese bombers on this date in 1944. Five hundred miles east of Luzon, U.S. oil tankers were waiting to refuel the fleet.

On the morning of the 17th, Halsey had received a weather report that there was a typhoon four hundred miles to his east, moving to the north. In fact, the powerful storm was actually just 120 miles away and unfortunately, its forecast track was wrong. Halsey believed his course to the refueling area would avoid the dangerous typhoon. As weather conditions deteriorated during the day, Halsey ordered his fleet, which covered a thirty mile diameter area, to move northwest, thinking it would take them out of harm’s way.

Before the satellite era, it was difficult to keep track of typhoons in the Pacific during World War II. Large stretches of ocean are unbroken by islands, so there are few observation locations. Powerful Typhoon Cobra was beginning to strike the task force when the fueling operation began. By nightfall, the fueling operation was abandoned and the fleet was trying to outrun the typhoon.

Over the next 24 hours, Halsey made several maneuvers that managed to put much of his fleet right into the middle of the storm. There was mass confusion as the ships rolled on monstrous waves as high as sixty feet and dealt with shrieking winds 145 mph and gusts to 185 mph in the Philippine Sea. The central pressure in the storm was estimated to be 26.30 inches. Winds and high seas tore life vests from the backs of some survivors. Three destroyers and numerous other ships were sunk by the storm. A total of 778 sailors and marines died and 146 aircraft were destroyed.

Our friends up at CPC still are expecting some trouble from "Hope" next week:



Will be very interesting to watch Bob and Hope develop in coming days...

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Remember the song by Loverboy?

"Everybody's working for the weekend
Everybody wants a little romance
Everybody's goin' off the deep end
Everybody needs a second chance, oh
You want a piece of my heart
You better start from start
You wanna be in the show
Come on baby lets go"

High clouds continue to roll into the state, and we have two systems ahead in the next 7 days that are both very interesting and challenging from a forecast point of view.

By the way, no way we reach the low 50s this afternoon. I was WRONG when I forecast a high of 51. I fell for the MOS trap... you know, the 50s/30s thing we often discuss here. MOS numbers were way too warm today. You simply have to toss them out at times. I show 44.1 degrees at my place as I write this.

BOB: The system we named Bob back on Tuesday is coming in here over the weekend. The NAM is slower, wetter, and colder. The GFS is faster, warmer, and drier. The NAM shows 0.68" of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS shows only 0.05". The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Still looks like the bulk of the rain comes from late tomorrow afternoon through the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

I think the NAM thermal field is best. At 5,000 feet (850 mb), the freeze line almost extends down to I-20 late Saturday night. I think you have to mention at least the chance of some sleet mixed with the rain as far south as Birmingham. But, no travel problems here due to temperatures above freezing below 2,000 feet.

My greatest concern tomorrow night is northeast Alabama, specifically counties like Etowah, Cherokee, Jackson, DeKalb, and Marshall. Maybe even Blount. A wintry mix is more likely there... some rain, sleet and snow. But again, temperatures should stay a little above freezing. We will have to watch for evaporative cooling or any other process that can lower temperatures into the low 30s. Watch those wet bulbs tomorrow! Keep an eye on the blog... it will be very interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow night.

HOPE: The models and yours truly continue to struggle on what to do with our storm next week. Every run looks different; but there is no doubt there will be a storm on the board toward the middle of next week.

Seems like the chance of a phased system is very small. But, a southern stream system in the Gulf of Mexico should spread a cold rain into Alabama Wednesday night or Thursday. It could be pretty similar to Bob. the system coming in here over the weekend. A chance of wintry precipitation on the northern edge of the rain shield.

To add a little spice, the 12Z European model shows a deep upper low over Jackson, MS Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Cold core upper low, weatherman's woe. Watch out for dynamic cooling if that model is correct. A cold core upper low would lower thickness values and might bring a better chance of snow to a larger part of the deep south.

Like I have said all along, this is a THREAT to PARTS of the deep south. A threat of some wintry precipitation. We won't be able to be very specific until the system gets on the board next week after Bob is long gone.

Sure, without phasing with the northern branch of the jet that decreases the chance of snow. But a southern branch system with a cold core upper low like the ECMWF suggests sure means you can't rule out snow for a PART of the deep south. Again, I don't know which part yet.

CHRISTMAS: I sure don't trust the GFS in the longer range in this kind of difficult pattern. It is suggesting an upper trough around here in the vicinity of Christmas, but the amount of moisture is in question. We also note the country in general should be warmer at Christmas time as milder Pacific air covers much of the nation. The northeast still looks very cold, however.

Enjoyed being with the gang at WTDR-FM in Oxford this morning for their annual Bake A Christmas program for families in need. Call in and make a pledge if you are in East Alabama... they are at 92.7 FM.

Have a great weekend... try to have a little down time and soak up the real meaning of the season. I will be around and post thoughts on the blog as BOB unfolds....

Big, big frost across the Alabama countryside this morning. In Havana Junction, we would say a "great big ole frost."

One of the biggest ones so far this season.

In fact, when I walked my little 9-pound dog this morning, the frost was so heavy in the grass that she took big arcing leaps (like a kangaroo) so she would not have her feet in the grass as often.

Also some dense fog in some valleys produced a bit of "black ice."

A sampling of low temperatures:

20 in Hamilton
21 in Pinson and Black Creek (NE Etowah County)
22 in Cordova (Union Chapel)
23 in Munford, Oak Grove, Alabaster
24 in Jasper, Talladega, Gaylesville
25 in Helena, Anniston Airport, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Centreville, Fayette, Livingston
26 in Huntsville, Ashville
27 at Birmingham Airport, Muscle Shoals, Alexander City, Inverness
28 at Cullman, Clanton, Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
30 in Mobile, Selma, DeSoto State Park

A quick note before heading out the door for Anniston...

The 12Z NAM is coming in wetter and a little colder for BOB over the weekend. The extraction from the NAM run now shows 0.68" for Birmingham with the temp at 850 mb (5000 feet) 0.6 degrees (C). The lowest 2,000 feet will be above freezing, however. Still looks like a cold rain for the I-20 corridor tomorrow night... maybe some sleet mixed in.

The colder run will make us pause and think about northeast Alabama tomorrow night... a wintry mix could be a little more likely north of U.S. 278... especially over parts of Etowah, Cherokee, DeKalb, and Jackson counties. Even up there tempertaures should remain a little above freezing.

But, remember the models have been struggling with the thermal fields lately.

I will have a full post and video by 3:30...

The morning map discussion video is FINALLY on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Had some wi-fi issues that have finally been resolved.

Cold is the word this morning; everyone around here is below freezing. Some spots are down in the mid 20s; I see where Anniston reports 26 degrees. We should note these numbers are well below the GFS MOS values that were shown yesterday. As J.B. writes below, there is some patchy dense fog out there, and of course, any leftover wet spots are now icy spots. Be careful out there.

We enjoy ample sunshine today, and a decent chance we reach the low 50s this afternoon.

BOB: Our weekend storm will zip through here tomorrow night, and the rain will come while many of you are asleep. The NAM is a little wetter, and GFS a little drier. Both models show the deeper moisture over south Alabama. Critical thickness values remain to the north of here, so the chance of any wintry precipitation around here looks very small. Just a light, cold rain Saturday night. Best chance of rain now seems to come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Sunday. Any ice pellets or snow flakes would be north of U.S. 278, and up there the moisture is so limited there might be little precipitation at all.

NAM extraction shows only 0.12" here from Bob. Nothing to get excited about.

The sun should return on Sunday and Monday with chilly temperatures.

HOPE: Our final storm of this series comes in here in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The big question is this: to phase, or not to phase. The GFS and the European say no phasing... they keep the southern short wave apart from the northern branch. This will prevent any really cold air from getting involved in the storm, and also prevent it from becoming a super-duper storm of major strength.

I think the best course of action is to go with the "no phased" look for now. If that is correct, then Hope will be very similar to Bob (the weekend storm coming in) in terms of the imact on Alabama.

The 00Z GFS looks good to us; it shows a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico with precipitation extending up over the northern two-thirds of Alabama late Wednesday night into Thursday. The 0 degree (C) line at 5000 feet is over northwest Alabama, so for now it looks like a mostly rain event.

But again, like I have written here dozens of times, I like to take these systems one at a time. So, once Bob gets out of here we can have a really good look at Hope.

CHRISTMAS: The GFS continues the idea of a storm system to the west of Alabama on Christmas day, with a rain mass to the west over Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Temperatures should warm to "normal" levels for this time of the year (50s and 30s).

The 06Z GFS goes nuts with the system develops a deep upper low over Alabama and Georgia the day after Christmas with very low thickness values. I don't trust any specific solution right now as the model is struggling with the pattern.

Headed over to Anniston today for the annual "Bake A Christmas" day at WTDR-FM, Thunder 92.7. Those guys have been doing this for years; they auction baked goods and a variety of other cool prizes to raise money to provide Christmas toys for families in need in east Alabama. If you live in East Alabama be sure and listen, and give us a call!

The afternoon map discussion video will be ready by 3:30 this afternoon...

Dense fog has developed tonight mainly in the valleys of North Alabama. This has happened with temperatures already below freezing.

THESE 11 PM SPOT REPORTS
Anniston Airport...28 with dense fog, visibility 1/2 mile
Gadsden Airport...27 dense fog, visibility 1/2 mile
Fort Payne Airport...dense fog, visibility less than 1/4 mile

This means there may be a few slick spots for the remainder of tonight and into Friday morning. The fog may freeze on some road surfaces, mainly bridges and overpasses.

Good idea to approach those with a lot of extra caution.