Scan down to read James' thnking as of late Friday night about this weekend's icing potential...

It was Friday, February 14, 2003. I had just started my own company. I flew to Washington, D.C. and met with a set of prospective clients. Winter Storm Warnings were in effect for the Nation’s Capital as I flew into Reagan national Airport. The snow began late that night, and by the next morning, three or four inches were on the ground. It was a beautiful sight for someone who is from the South.

The really heavy stuff was expected to arrive early on Sunday morning. I met all day long with the new clients, planning on just getting out of town the next morning before the expected foot of snow. As I retired that night, I set my clock for 3 a.m. for an early drive back to National, hoping to beat the weather, which was showing up on radar back in West Virginia. I awakened to seven to eight inches of snow on the ground and more falling furiously. I hurriedly left and started driving my rental car. Frankly, I was very worried. Snow was falling so heavily that I could not see building just off I-95. I just tried to stay in the middle of ruts left in the road by the few other cards that were out. It you varied just a few feet, you could easily get stuck in the snowbank left by the plows. I ended up down on US-50, New York Avenue. Being on the surface streets made me feel better.

I pulled into the airport after twenty mile drive that took me two and one half hours to drive. I have never been so glad to turn in a rental car. But the airport was closed and I found myself trapped in the Marriott Courtyard in Crystal City was three days watching local coverage of what would be Washington’s sixth biggest snowfall ever. A total of 16.7 inches fell right outside my hotel window at Reagan Airport. Just up the road, Baltimore picked up an even more amazing 28.2 inches of snow, making it the biggest snow ever there. An astounding 49 inches of snow fell at Keyser Bridge in Garrett County, Maryland.

After a quick peek at the 00Z NAM there is still no reason to change our forecast thinking.

Cold and wet weather for Alabama tomorrow with a classic case of warm moist air overrunning a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Looks like mid 30s for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston during the day with periods of rain.

Some freezing rain and sleet will be possible along and north of a line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville. Bridge icing will be the issue; the roads in this region will be wet due to the warm ground.

And, tomorrow night, some freezing drizzle is possible as far south as I-20, so icy spots are not out of the question as far south as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston between 6:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m.

Another words, no change in our forecast. Just watch for ice on bridges this weekend, and be very careful if you are traveling.

With any system like this you can expect one or two surprises, so keep an eye on the blog tomorrow as the event unfolds.

The next wave will bring rain in here late Sunday night and Monday... still looks like ice will not be a big threat on I-20, BUT it will be close early Monday morning over the northern third of the state, especially north of U.S. 278. Once again, we will keep an eye on that situation.

ROAMING: Some random notes from around the nation....

The temperature right now in Park Rapids, MN is -25 with a wind chill index of -45.

The closest freezing temperature (from Alabama) is now in the northwest corner of Arkansas.

A hodgepodge of winter weather advisories cover the region from Texas into Arkansas, Tennessee, and northern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend...

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I don't see any real reason to change the ongoing forecast. The weekend will be cold, wet, and miserable. And, some bridge icing along the way for parts of North Alabama. Lets break it all down for your weekend planning:

TONIGHT: The cold air continues to creep in here. Lots of clouds as moist air begins to ride over the shallow layer of cold air near the surface, but I think most of the night will be dry. No travel problems.

TOMORROW: Periods of rain are likely during the day, and it will be a cold rain. Mid 30s are likely during the day for I-20, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, so no travel problems are expected there.

However, north of a line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville, temperatures could be around 32 degrees (or colder), and bridge icing is possible thanks to freezing rain and sleet. Once again, freezing rain is simply rain (liquid) that falls when temperatures are 32 degrees or lower. Sleet means ice pellets.

Due to the relatively warm ground, roads will be only wet, even where temperatures are at freezing. The bridges will provide the challenge due to icy spots. BE CAREFUL ON BRIDGES OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TOMORROW.

The WRF is amazingly dry, but both the NAM and the GFS support periods of rain through the day tomorrow. The GFS is the wettest model, and it has done fairly well in this kind of pattern this season.

TOMORROW NIGHT: The precipitation will taper off tomorrow evening, but some lingering drizzle is likely tomorrow night, and with temperatures dropping there could be some light bridge icing as far south as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston (I-20). Thank goodness any precipitation tomorrow night should be light. Temperatures should reach the upper 20s in most areas early Sunday morning.

SUNDAY: There might be some lingering freezing drizzle early in the day, but I now think most all of Sunday will be dry. Maybe even a few peeks of afternoon sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like the GFS is forecasting rain through Easter (that is a joke..). The stalled, wavy front could very well mean rain on a daily basis Monday through Thursday. Think wet for much of next week. Temperatures will slowly moderate, so no ice. We might even have some thunderstorms by Thursday as a strong wave forms on the front.

We will keep the blog fresh all weekend... so check in often!

* 87 was the high at the Fort Worth Nature Center yesterday afternoon

* 36 was the temperature at Fort Worth at 11 am

* 92 was the USA high Thursday at Bouquillas Ranger Station in Big Bend National Park

* 800+ standing room only was the number of people at the 33/40 Storm Alert event at the Ritz Theater in Talladega last night

* 55 below zero was the wind chill in McDonald Pass, Montana this morning

* 34 below zero was one of the coldest temperatures in the USA this morning at Seeley Lake, Montana

* 6 is the number of hours I have been studying the weather today and the forecast is still going to be difficult

* 12 is the number of toys Little Miss Molly had scattered all over the floor when I got up. I stepped on a squeaky toy and thought I had awakened the entire household.

* 2,350 is how many miles long the Mississippi River is. It is the nation's mightiest river and it drains an area as far away as Montana. Lot's of the water in Montana comes down the Milk, Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers to join the mighty Mississippi.

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a Heavy Snow Warning that will go into effect at midnight tonight and last through noon Saturday.

As much as 2 to 4 inches of snow will accumulate during that time frame. Some lighter snow will start tonight, but it will be after midnight before the snow becomes more widespread and heavier. This Heavy Snow Warning covers a big part of Middle Tennessee, including places like Nashville and Clarksville.

Meanwhile, the NWS in Huntsville has moved up the beginning time of the Winter Storm Watch for North Alabama. It now goes into effect at midnight, which is 6 hours earlier than the original.

Not much going on across Alabama late on this Friday morning.

Very little precipitation. However a 50-mile wide band of mostly light rain extended all the way across North Central Alabama from border to border. It was from Marion and North lamar County on the west side of the state over to Cherokee County on the east side.

Moving east.

Cold front at 10 am was very near Montgomery. Quite a range in 10 o'clock temperatures

57 in Montgomery
64 in Troy
70 in Evergreen
38 in Decatur and Muscle Shoals

Nearest freezing temperatures to Alabama were over NE Arkansas.

A quick peek at the new 12Z model output really suggests no change in our forecast thinking...

I think much of the day tomorrow will feature a cold rain for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston with mid 30s.

Freezing rain and sleet an issue north of a line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville during the day. From reading J.B.'s post below that is pretty close to the NWS idea, I just disagree on the eastern side of the state.

Bridge icing will be the main problem.

Tomorrow night the freezing line drops to I-20, and some light bridge icing will be possible in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Anniston.

Both the NAM and the GFS are hinting at about 1/2 inch of rain. This could lead to ice accumulation of 1/4 to 1/2 inch on exposed objects where temperatures are below 32. Roads will be wet due to the warm ground; the bridges will be the problem.

I will have a full post a little later along with a video update.....

At 7 o'clock this morning, the National Weather Service, Birmingham, issued a Winter Storm Watch for the following North Central Alabama Counties. It is in effect from Saturday through Saturday evening.

Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Blount, Etowah, Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne and St. Clair.

This is due to a threat of freezing rain.

The NWS says the main threat will be north of a line from Sulligent to Jasper, Locust Fork, Anniston and Heflin.

At this time the NWS expects any ice accumulation to remain uner 1/4 inch.

The NWS, Huntsville also as the rest of North Alabama under a Winter Storm Watch which means that about the north 1/3 of Alabama is under the watch.

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Strap in for a wild ride on the Polar Express.

See J.B.'s posts below for some temperatures up in the core of the cold air. This will be the coldest air of the season, most likely, for much of the nation. And, the cold air is knock, knock, knocking on I-20's door as I write this. My thermometer in Shelby County is showing 58. To the northwest, Muscle Shoals is at 45, and Memphis at 34.

Temperatures should fall through the 50s and 40s today, and we should go into the 30s tonight. A few showers and periods of light rain are likely this morning as the colder air seeps in here.

ICE ISSUES: The NWS in both Huntsville and Birmingham have issued winter storm watches for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures during the day will hover in the mid 30s along I-20, and just to the north temperatures should be at or below freezing. For now, we expect the freeze line during the day tomorrow to be somewhere near a line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville. North of this line, freezing rain and sleet could glaze bridges with ice.

The freeze line will drop southward tomorrow evening to the I-20 corridor, where some light bridge icing will be possible for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston tomorrow night into early Sunday.

Regular readers know the deal, but for those of you new to the blog (welcome; where have you been, the cold air is very shallow. Only 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep. Warmer air goes up and over the cold air near the surface, creating this freezing rain (rain that falls when temperatures are 32 degrees or colder) and sleet (ice pellets). The cold air is not deep enough for snow tomorrow. Looking at your backyard thermometer is not a good way to determine if temperatures are cold enough for snow; you need to look for 32 degrees at an altitude of about 5,000 feet off the ground for this. Yet another reason why weather balloon data is so important.

HOW MUCH? The 06Z GFS shows 0.55" of precipitation for tomorrow and tomorrow evening. However, the 06Z NAM is much drier. But, the 00Z NAM is much like the 06Z GFS and shows a little over one-half inch. This could mean around 1/4 to 1/2 inch ice accumulation on exposed objects like trees, powerlines, and bridges. I would suggest at this point widespread power outages are not especially likely, but you can't completely rule out some downed lines due to the weight of the ice over North Alabama, north of our freeze line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville.

The precipitation will diminish tomorrow evening, but some lingering freezing drizzle could bring more glaze to bridges tomorrow night and Sunday morning.

BOTTOM LINE: We think travel will be tricky during the day tomorrow due to bridge icing north of a line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville. For the I-20 corridor during the day, places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, we should be in the mid 30s with a cold rain. Tomorrow night as temperatures drop, bridge icing could become a problem as far south as I-20.

For the greater Birmingham metro area, the greatest chance of bridge icing will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Sunday.

More rain is likely late Sunday night into Monday with another wave on the front, but temperatures will be a little warmer and we don't expect any ice at this point.

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OK... we are strapped in and ready to go for a wintry weekend of weather in Alabama. Blog updates will be frequent. The next video will be on the server by 3:30 this afternoon...

This is a quick update for early-risers. James Spann will be along with a complete discussion around 6 am.

A line of showers marks the leading edge of the colder air now moving into Alabama. The cold front is very near Birmingham and Tuscaloosa where it was still warm 60 at 4 am. The front has already passed Cullman where it was 48.

Little or no lightning with that line of showers.

Temperatures freezing in West Tennessee and 23 at Fayetteville, Ark.

A Winter Storm Watch posted for parts of North Mississippi and West Tennessee. In Nashville, 1 to 2 inches of snow expected after midnight tonight and possibly an additional inch during the day Saturday.

A few other notes
-25 in Grand Forks, North Dakota where the wind chill is -50
-52 wind chill in Devils Lake, North Dakota
-30 or colder at a number of locations in South Central Canada
20 at Chicago, wind gusts to 25, wind chill +5

We will most certainly hear of temperatures lower than -30 in Northern Minnesota later this morning.