Many (but not all) Alabama school children will be on spring break next week, so we figured we could use this space today to highlight weather for popular destinations….
THE GULF COAST: Nice weather for the central Gulf coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores today and tomorrow with ample sunshine and temperatures in the mid 60s today and around 70 tomorrow. We will mention the chance of scattered showers on Sunday, but the day won’t be a wash-out and temperatures will be in the low 70s Sunday afternoon. A major rain event is shaping up for the Gulf coast in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with the possibility of severe thunderstorms and very heavy rain. It might even be a set up for isolated tornadoes and waterspouts. Then, for the middle of the week the weather should be mostly sunny on Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures in the low 70s. Another rain producer will likely move into the coastal region for the Easter weekend. We checked sea water temperatures, and they are running in the cool 60 to 65 degree range along the coast.
GATLINBURG/GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS: A passing cold front will bring a few showers to east Tennessee tomorrow, followed by a dry day on Sunday. Temperatures will remain rather chilly, with highs in the 45 to 55 degree range over the weekend. Next week, rain is likely Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a nice stretch of dry weather Wednesday through Friday with warmer afternoons. Temperatures should reach the 60s during the middle of next week. Some rain is likely for Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge over the Easter weekend. The track of the surface lows next week should keep the chance of severe thunderstorms to the south of Tennessee.
Spring Break Forecast
March 17, 2005, 10:51 pmBrighter Days Ahead
March 17, 2005, 3:14 pm
The Thursday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
So much for the perfect March Madness bracket... the Alabama loss ended that dream. The good news is that everyone else in the ABC 33/40 weather group missed it as well. Hated to see the Tide go down so soon.
Sunshine should return tomorrow with temperatures getting back in the 60s, where they should be this time of the year. Saturday still looks mostly dry despite a front passing through, and the ultimate placement of that front will determine where the best chance of showers will be on Sunday. Bottom line is that much of the weekend will be dry, although a brief passing shower will be possible on both days.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to flip and flop on the storm system early next week. The 12Z run puts the surface low near Birmingham on Tuesday, a northward shift from the 06Z run. If that surface low passes north of us, we might have a potent severe weather threat with our area getting into the warm sector. If the low passes to the south, we will just see plenty of rain. One way or the other it looks like the best chance of rain and storms will come from Monday night into Tuesday morning.
REST OF SPRING BREAK WEEK: A difficult forecast in this active flow pattern. The latest model data now suggests the weather will remain mostly dry from Wednesday through Saturday, with rain and storms moving back into Alabama on Easter Sunday. Not totally convinced of this just yet; would not be shocked to see rain on either Friday or Saturday.
Thanks to all the second graders today at Deer Valley and Rocky Ridge Elementary schools... great listeners. And, they were ALL smart and good looking!
Gonna look at the hoop situation before getting back to weather duty. I think I am correct on all picks expect for the Alabama upset...
I love March Madness...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
So much for the perfect March Madness bracket... the Alabama loss ended that dream. The good news is that everyone else in the ABC 33/40 weather group missed it as well. Hated to see the Tide go down so soon.
Sunshine should return tomorrow with temperatures getting back in the 60s, where they should be this time of the year. Saturday still looks mostly dry despite a front passing through, and the ultimate placement of that front will determine where the best chance of showers will be on Sunday. Bottom line is that much of the weekend will be dry, although a brief passing shower will be possible on both days.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to flip and flop on the storm system early next week. The 12Z run puts the surface low near Birmingham on Tuesday, a northward shift from the 06Z run. If that surface low passes north of us, we might have a potent severe weather threat with our area getting into the warm sector. If the low passes to the south, we will just see plenty of rain. One way or the other it looks like the best chance of rain and storms will come from Monday night into Tuesday morning.
REST OF SPRING BREAK WEEK: A difficult forecast in this active flow pattern. The latest model data now suggests the weather will remain mostly dry from Wednesday through Saturday, with rain and storms moving back into Alabama on Easter Sunday. Not totally convinced of this just yet; would not be shocked to see rain on either Friday or Saturday.
Thanks to all the second graders today at Deer Valley and Rocky Ridge Elementary schools... great listeners. And, they were ALL smart and good looking!
Gonna look at the hoop situation before getting back to weather duty. I think I am correct on all picks expect for the Alabama upset...
I love March Madness...
Clouds Hang Tough
March 17, 2005, 6:39 am
The Thursday morning web video is ready for viewing:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Like J.B. says in his post below, many people are getting cabin fever. Not much improvement today, with clouds, some drizzle, and chilly temperatures. We should break out by tomorrow with some returning sunshine and temperatures back in the 60s.
HIGHLIGHTS:
WEEKEND: A front slips in here on Saturday, but once again this morning the models look very dry. Just a few isolated showers, mainly over the northeast part of the state. We will mention a few showers on Sunday as that front hangs around, but they should be scattered and much of the day will be dry. The placement of the front will determine how warm we get on Sunday; I still think we have a shot at the low 70s, especially south of Birmingham.
MONDAY/TUESDAY: There is a clear trend in the GFS and the European; both want to take the system early next week on a more southerly track. That is good news for us. The GFS has the surface low closer to Mobile, while the ECMWF has it near Jackson. This keeps the warm sector south of us, and greatly reduces the severe weather threat IF this solution is correct. This might change again, however. But, at this moment, the models are suggesting the best chance of severe storms near the immediate Gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday. For us, we will have plenty of rain to deal with one way or another as we begin the spring break week.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: Still looks like we will enjoy one or two nice days as the storm system departs. Looks like the nicest day could be Thursday. Another system arrives toward the end of the week, with the latest GFS showing the best chance of rain late Good Friday into Saturday March 26. That rain then tapers off Easter Sunday. Could be some strong storms involved. Needless to say, the timing on all of this could change.
As you can see from my earlier post... I have lots on the plate today so I have to head out to see the kids at Deer Valley and Rocky Ridge... I will be back later today with an update on the 12Z model runs...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Like J.B. says in his post below, many people are getting cabin fever. Not much improvement today, with clouds, some drizzle, and chilly temperatures. We should break out by tomorrow with some returning sunshine and temperatures back in the 60s.
HIGHLIGHTS:
WEEKEND: A front slips in here on Saturday, but once again this morning the models look very dry. Just a few isolated showers, mainly over the northeast part of the state. We will mention a few showers on Sunday as that front hangs around, but they should be scattered and much of the day will be dry. The placement of the front will determine how warm we get on Sunday; I still think we have a shot at the low 70s, especially south of Birmingham.
MONDAY/TUESDAY: There is a clear trend in the GFS and the European; both want to take the system early next week on a more southerly track. That is good news for us. The GFS has the surface low closer to Mobile, while the ECMWF has it near Jackson. This keeps the warm sector south of us, and greatly reduces the severe weather threat IF this solution is correct. This might change again, however. But, at this moment, the models are suggesting the best chance of severe storms near the immediate Gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday. For us, we will have plenty of rain to deal with one way or another as we begin the spring break week.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: Still looks like we will enjoy one or two nice days as the storm system departs. Looks like the nicest day could be Thursday. Another system arrives toward the end of the week, with the latest GFS showing the best chance of rain late Good Friday into Saturday March 26. That rain then tapers off Easter Sunday. Could be some strong storms involved. Needless to say, the timing on all of this could change.
As you can see from my earlier post... I have lots on the plate today so I have to head out to see the kids at Deer Valley and Rocky Ridge... I will be back later today with an update on the 12Z model runs...
OVERDOSED ON CLOUDS
March 17, 2005, 6:17 am
Well, it has not progressed to Cabin Fever status yet but yesterday was a good start. Again this morning the SE USA is under a blanket of clouds that extends north to Virginia and Kentucky and west to Memphis and Louisiana.
Across Alabama, the clouds hang low especially over the central and south part of the state. The lower clouds are only about 400 feet above the ground in many areas meaning that some of the ridges are obscured.
I love a day like yesterday with low clouds with persistent cold rain and drizzle. I realize, however, that it gives some people claustrophobia.
Not much chance of seeing the sunball today but better luck Friday.
Up at 4:51 this morning. Three minutes later, as I was enjoying my second sip of coffee, Little Miss Molly came strolling into my office wagging her tail. She immediately started clanging the little bell on the back door so away we went on our first walk of the day. The cold drizzle hitting my face was invigorating. All the birds were quiet as could be. Maybe they have Cabin Fever.
By the way, yesterday, with clear skies you could easily see the the deep snow cover on satellite photographs over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
What did we ever do without satellites and radar? We made do. When I joined the U. S. Weather Burerau in 1957, we had neither!
Across Alabama, the clouds hang low especially over the central and south part of the state. The lower clouds are only about 400 feet above the ground in many areas meaning that some of the ridges are obscured.
I love a day like yesterday with low clouds with persistent cold rain and drizzle. I realize, however, that it gives some people claustrophobia.
Not much chance of seeing the sunball today but better luck Friday.
Up at 4:51 this morning. Three minutes later, as I was enjoying my second sip of coffee, Little Miss Molly came strolling into my office wagging her tail. She immediately started clanging the little bell on the back door so away we went on our first walk of the day. The cold drizzle hitting my face was invigorating. All the birds were quiet as could be. Maybe they have Cabin Fever.
By the way, yesterday, with clear skies you could easily see the the deep snow cover on satellite photographs over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
What did we ever do without satellites and radar? We made do. When I joined the U. S. Weather Burerau in 1957, we had neither!
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