From the mailbag…

This note came in from an ABC 33/40 viewer yesterday:

“Heard James talking about NOAA weather radio. I'd love to see him post some information regarding GOOD weather radios and such for those of us who haven't a clue where to start. Would also like to know more about NOAA - since my best guess when I started trying to figure that out was "Noah radio!" (Hey- rained for him I do realize that mentioning brand names and such may be an issue (, but would appreciate any help offered up...what to look for, what to avoid. We simply do not always hear the sirens here so we are wanting a little extra help in that arena. Thanks so much.”

This is a reminder that very few Alabamians have a NOAA Weather Radio receiver in their home. Based on my many trips across the state and speaking with different groups, I would expect only about one percent of Alabama homes have one. Pretty scary stuff considering how many tornadoes we have to dodge around here. And, I have great fear a large percentage of Alabamians expect to “hear a siren” before every tornado. I have been on many rants here about how “tornado sirens” are useless for people in their homes; they designed to reach people OUTDOORS.

In answer to the viewer question, you can buy a good NOAA Weather Radio receiver at most electronic stores (like Radio Shack), and some major retailers (like Walmart). Be sure your model has a battery back-up, and the digital S.A.M.E. technology, which allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Until we get a NOAA Weather Radio in a majority of Alabama homes, the tornado warning process will be very, very limited!

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Over the next seven days we will be gradually making a change to a wetter pattern across the southern U.S.

TOMORROW: Still looks warm and dry. Like today, some morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. Highs in the mid 80s. We are almost getting to the point where you might want to mention isolated storms, but I think storms that form will be mainly to the north, where there is a slight risk of severe weather from Huntsville to near Omaha, Nebraska.

WEDNESDAY: A weak surface boundary slips in here on Wednesday, and could trigger a few scattered showers and storms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the northern half of the state, with the main problem coming from hail and strong winds. The main upper low will be over the Dakotas, so upper support is marginal. But, wind fields are relatively strong, and the air will be pretty unstable.

THURSDAY: The 12Z GFS backs on the idea of cooler and drier air moving in here. It keeps us warm with higher dewpoints, so a few isolated showers or storms will be possible.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: This forecast will sound a little like summer... the chance of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms on all three days. Highs in the 77 to 81 degree range. No wash-out, and some sun at times. Bottom line is that the old surface boundary just hangs around, and with a little surface convergence and the daytime heating process you sure can't leave out the chance of scattered showers and storms.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks pretty unsettled for the first half of next week, with a chance of showers or storms on a daily basis Monday through Wednesday (April 24-26). The GFS is suggesting rain-free weather by race weekend at Talladega (April 29-30), but that is a low confidence idea at best.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: To our own J.B. Elliott... he has been around a few years but is getting younger by the day!

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Today will be the 9th day in a row without a drop of rain for most Alabama communities. And, temperatures will remain well above normal with mid 80s likely.

TOMORROW: A weak "wedge" front will slip in here from the east. I don't think it will impact temperatures much at all, so mid 80s are likely again. The front will provide a little low level convergence, so a few afternoon storms might pop up somewhere over the northern half of the state. However, the chance of any one spot getting rain is really small and not worth mentioning for now. And, to the northwest, storms will be getting closer; SPC has defined a slight risk of severe weather in the broad area from Omaha, NE to Huntsville. A few storms might slip into the northwest part of the state tomorrow evening.

WEDNESDAY: A slight risk of severe storms is defined by SPC over parts of Tennessee, and much of North and Central Alabama. This is not a classic severe weather setup for sure; the main upper low is well to the north (over the Dakotas), but there will be a surface front in the area, instability values will be fairly high, and wind fields are relatively strong. So, a few storms Wednesday afternoon could produce hail or strong winds. It won't rain all day, and we will see sun at times.

THURSDAY: For now the weather looks dry and cooler; highs in the upper 70s with a partly sunny sky.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: The weather looks a little unsettled on these days. Once again, no wash-out or all-day rain. But, a few showers and storms will be around each day as a weak front remains draped across the Deep South and a series of ripples move through the zonal flow across the region. Highs should be in the 77 to 80 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS develops a trough over the eastern U.S. early next week which should bring in drier and cooler air in about 7 to 9 days from now.

Enjoy your Monday; I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!

Today, we take seven day forecasts for granted. It takes a lot of technology to make that happen. Satellites, numerical weather prediction models and world-wide weather observations. None of that existed in 1943 as Allied military commanders gathered to plan the invasion of Europe. In fact, a forecast for more than twenty four hours in advance was laughable. But Allied meteorologists, including the famed Sverre Pettersen thought they knew better.

The first decision was what time of year to stage the invasion. Examination of historical weather records indicated that the best odds for favorable conditions would exist in June. A preliminary date of May 31st was chosen by meteorologists in conjunction with military leaders. Weather conditions would determine the actual date for the invasion.

A joint Allied meteorological team consisting of British and American forecasters was established in April 1944 with orders to begin creating trial forecasts for the invasion. On this date, the forecasters made their first official presentation of a five day forecast to the Allied Commanders. A correct weather forecast would be critical to the success of the invasion.

A period of calm weather was what the commanders were looking for. They got it in May, but it was not time. Early June started off stormy. Forecasters saw an opportunity for good weather on June 6th. The recommendation was made to General Eisenhower. He agreed. It turned out to be a perfect forecast.

Thank goodness!