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Today's map discussion is coming to you from the 13th floor of Park Place Tower where I am planted for the weekend serving as the meteorologist for Birmingham's world class festival, City Stages. City Stages got off to a great start last night with a wonderfully dry but warm beginning and some great entertainment. And it looks like the good but warm weather will continue today, so be sure to take in some of the great entertainment available in downtown Birmingham today and Sunday.
So onto the weather. If you saw a radar image yesterday you saw a band of strong to severe storms that stretched from about Mobile to Memphis. Several severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for some of the storms, but the band moved little throughout the day and early evening. If anything there was a slight northward component to the motion of the storms. That boundary plus the short wave trough over Texas have inched closer, but I expect to see the greatest risk of storms this afternoon and evening to be over West Central Alabama.
There should be a good supply of sun today but clouds left over from the storms yesterday will also compete for space in the sky. Temperatures will once again be warm with highs topping out around 91 or so. Humidity values are moderate with dew points running in the lower 60s - a bit higher to the west of Birmingham.
The 500 millibar short wave remains the focus for weather production across the Southeast through the end of next week. While it weakens and pulls northeast, a small piece of it is left behind on the GFS projections. This should be just enough to give Alabama scattered thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week. This will be good because we can surely use the rain but this is not likely to be the kind of situation where everyone gets wet every day.
In the longer term, the GFS is once again developing a trough over the eastern half of the country. This means a northwesterly flow pattern for Alabama and could help to shave off a few degrees on those afternoon highs. Clouds from showers will help hold the temperatures in check, too.
An eastern US trough will also keep tropical system at bay if any should develop. Nothing of that sort on the horizon at this writing.
I've been associated with City Stages since the early 90s - 1991 I think. I'm honored that they think enough of my ability to have me back each year to monitor the weather for the festival. I don't have any experience with other such festivals with the exception of the Olympics in Atlanta in 1996, but I do hope that all outdoor gatherings of the magnitude of City Stages pay as much attention to weather and weather safety as City Stages does. I monitor radar and the lightning detection network, and when conditions threaten the safety of festival goers, I can pull the plug on all the events to ensure safety of festival patrons. It is not a responsibility I take lightly as you might imagine. I don't get much fan mail when I have to do that. But safety of as many as 100,000 people could be at stake.
On a slightly lighter note, when the weather threatens rain and nothing life threatening, I communicate that information to the various stages so that the stage managers can take appropriate action to keep the show going and as close to schedule as possible. All in all it is a rather intense weekend whenever anything appears on radar, but it is a great feeling to know that people are as safe as we can keep them.
I'll have another video tomorrow morning plus updates during the day as time and weather permit. Have a great weekend whatever your plans are.
-Brian-