The Wednesday afternoon web update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
There must be a bunch of high school graduation ceremonies tomorrow night outdoors; I have a ton of e-mail messages from folks wanting to know about rain chances.
There is no doubt we could very well have a number of showers and storms around here tomorrow night, so you will need to have a back-up plan in place if the graduation will be outdoors at a stadium. Some thunder and lightning could be involved as well.
I think most of the day tomorrow will be dry, but a few scattered showers or storms could show up late in the day. The best chance of rain and storms will come after 7:00 p.m.
Friday looks wet as well as an upper air weather disturbance moves southward from Minneapolis to Memphis. The latest NAM output is much drier, with only 0.28" of rain for Birmingham. However, the GFS shows 1.44". The NCEP QPF guidance shows around one inch, which is probably close to being correct. Of course, rain distribution won't very even with convection involved.
THE WEEKEND: Showers should thin out greatly on Saturday as the upper system moves to the Mississippi coast and weakens. Looks like most of the showers on Saturday will be south and east of Birmingham. Sunday should be a nice day with ample sunshine and temperatures peaking in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: Forecast for next week is a little muddy due to model differences. Looks like a cold front Monday slips in here with a chance of showers, followed by dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, another front stalls out near the Tennessee border with a chance of rain on Thursday and Friday. Not sure about that at all... the front on Thursday might have enough push to get into the northern Gulf with cooler and drier air by Friday. We will need to get closer on this to be more specific.
ADRIAN: Looks like this might be a minimal hurricane by the time it moves into Central America tomorrow. Life threatening flooding and mudslides are a very real theat... the mountains should tear up the circulation as it moves over land. Should the system survive and become a tropical storm again in the Caribbean as it moves northeast, it would keep the name Adrian. This will not affect the Gulf coast one way or another.
BEACH WEATHER: At first glance for the coming weekend, the weather along the coast will be warm and humid, with intervals of sunshine and scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will peak in the low 80s on the immediate coast.
Don't forget to check out "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches" before you leave:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php?id=811
Wet Weather Ahead
May 18, 2005, 3:36 pmEastern Pacific Tropical Storm
May 18, 2005, 7:17 am
Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific began on May 15, and the first named storm of the year, Adrian, is already churning toward Central America. Normally, tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Basin find a way to curve northwest into the open waters of the Central Pacific; however, Adrian has a different path in mind! The National Hurricane Center has plotted Adrian's forecast track across the Central American nation of Honduras, and then the storm is progged to move into the Caribbean by Friday evening.
Adrian could end up being the first Tropical Depression of the season in the Atlantic Basin if he can hold together in a rather hostile environment. The reason the environment is "hostile" is because the subtropical jet (southern branch of the jet stream) is still moving along at a good clip in the lower latitudes. That's also the reason that Adrian will not be able to recurve into the Pacific! Westerly winds aloft are just too strong for anything significant right now, but the water is very warm down there, so we will keep an eye on it. It should not impact our weather at all, but it's interesting to watch early-season tropical weather!
By the way, if Adrian does remain an organized tropical cyclone when it crosses Central America into the Caribbean, the name will not change to Arlene, which is the first name on the list for the 2005 Atlantic Season.
Adrian could end up being the first Tropical Depression of the season in the Atlantic Basin if he can hold together in a rather hostile environment. The reason the environment is "hostile" is because the subtropical jet (southern branch of the jet stream) is still moving along at a good clip in the lower latitudes. That's also the reason that Adrian will not be able to recurve into the Pacific! Westerly winds aloft are just too strong for anything significant right now, but the water is very warm down there, so we will keep an eye on it. It should not impact our weather at all, but it's interesting to watch early-season tropical weather!
By the way, if Adrian does remain an organized tropical cyclone when it crosses Central America into the Caribbean, the name will not change to Arlene, which is the first name on the list for the 2005 Atlantic Season.
Rain Returns By Tomorrow Night
May 18, 2005, 5:47 am
The Wednesday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I did post my annual "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches" on this blog last night... scroll down to read it if you have an interest in taking the roads less traveled to the Gulf coast. I know a ton of people headed down that way next week as the school year is winding down.
Another nice day today, with ample sunshine and temperatures rising into the mid 80s this afternoon. I still think most of the day tomorrow will be dry.
We will highlight showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night into Friday as the upper air trough drops southward from near Des Moines to Muscle Shoals. The latest model extraction from the ETA shows 1.54" here Thursday night into Friday; that will be very beneficial if we do get that much. SPC does not include Alabama in any formal severe weather risk areas; we agree with relatively light wind fields. Instability parameters look pretty decent, and there will be some low level veering with the vort max just to the west, but I am not convinced we will have any organized severe storms.
THE WEEKEND: Showers and storms should thin out on Saturday as the upper air system moves to the Mississippi coast and weakens. We will continue to forecast a dry day on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is suggesting a cold front moves through here early in the week, with a band of showers and storms late Monday and Monday night. Then, after a dry day on Tuesday, a wave forms on the front bringing in another round of rain and storms on Wednesday.
Then, a nice upper trough sets up over the eastern U.S. which should bring a nice batch of cooler and drier and for the latter half of the week, in the May 26-28 time frame.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Way too early for a specific forecast, but first guess would suggest the weekend starts off dry, perhaps finishing wet with rain returning on Monday May 30. Don't take that to the bank... just a first look.
ADRIAN: Guess we need to mention we have our first eastern Pacific tropical storm of the season, Adrian, which is moving toward Central America. It might be a minimal hurricane by landfall, but the main threat will come from flooding, which will be life threatening. Oddly enough, if this thing survives the rugged terrain of Central America, it will emerge into the Caribbean, moving toward Cuba and the Bahamas. It won't impact Alabama or the Gulf of Mexico one way or another....
See the advisories and graphics on our tropical page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I did post my annual "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches" on this blog last night... scroll down to read it if you have an interest in taking the roads less traveled to the Gulf coast. I know a ton of people headed down that way next week as the school year is winding down.
Another nice day today, with ample sunshine and temperatures rising into the mid 80s this afternoon. I still think most of the day tomorrow will be dry.
We will highlight showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night into Friday as the upper air trough drops southward from near Des Moines to Muscle Shoals. The latest model extraction from the ETA shows 1.54" here Thursday night into Friday; that will be very beneficial if we do get that much. SPC does not include Alabama in any formal severe weather risk areas; we agree with relatively light wind fields. Instability parameters look pretty decent, and there will be some low level veering with the vort max just to the west, but I am not convinced we will have any organized severe storms.
THE WEEKEND: Showers and storms should thin out on Saturday as the upper air system moves to the Mississippi coast and weakens. We will continue to forecast a dry day on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is suggesting a cold front moves through here early in the week, with a band of showers and storms late Monday and Monday night. Then, after a dry day on Tuesday, a wave forms on the front bringing in another round of rain and storms on Wednesday.
Then, a nice upper trough sets up over the eastern U.S. which should bring a nice batch of cooler and drier and for the latter half of the week, in the May 26-28 time frame.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Way too early for a specific forecast, but first guess would suggest the weekend starts off dry, perhaps finishing wet with rain returning on Monday May 30. Don't take that to the bank... just a first look.
ADRIAN: Guess we need to mention we have our first eastern Pacific tropical storm of the season, Adrian, which is moving toward Central America. It might be a minimal hurricane by landfall, but the main threat will come from flooding, which will be life threatening. Oddly enough, if this thing survives the rugged terrain of Central America, it will emerge into the Caribbean, moving toward Cuba and the Bahamas. It won't impact Alabama or the Gulf of Mexico one way or another....
See the advisories and graphics on our tropical page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
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