With a network of over two dozen affiliate radio station around the nation, I get to forecast quite an array of weather conditions. For example, out in Phoenix our friends listening to KGCB-FM have been dealing with 115 degree heat in recent days. Interestingly enough, some moisture from Emily could bring Arizona some welcome rain later this week, also knocking the heat down at the same time.
And, across the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas, everyone who hears my forecasts on KVMV-FM needless to say are watching Emily with a very cautious eye. Emily took a bashing over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico yesterday morning, and weakened to a category one hurricane, just like Dennis struggled to survive over Cuba on its journey toward the central Gulf coast. And, like Dennis, Emily should get her act together quickly today and I still expect a major hurricane at landfall tonight.
Unfortunately for our friends in Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen, there is no shallow pool of cooler water near the coast, and I seriously doubt if Emily will weaken right before landfall, like Dennis did. I would not be shocked if Emily attained category four strength again right before landfall.
The best possible situation for the Rio Grande Valley is a landfall on the northeast Mexico coast, with the damaging winds staying south of the river, but with the rain shield extending northward into south Texas. There has been a rather severe, long term drought across far south Texas in recent years, and a good soaking rain is actually good news.
Best bet for landfall now is about 50 to 100 miles south of the mouth of the Rio Grade, but a hurricane watch extends north to Baffin Bay, Texas, and we surely cannot rule out a far south Texas landfall at this time.
So, for our KVMV friends, it will be a long day of waiting and watching…
Interesting Summer Weather
July 18, 2005, 9:07 pmHot Summer Days
July 18, 2005, 1:55 pm
The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Welcome to the dog days of summer. Our forecast will not change much over the next two weeks; and you pretty much know what we are going to say. Hot and humid, lots of morning sunshine, a few neighborhoods getting a passing afternoon storm with brief heavy rain and lots of lightning. Afternoon highs in the low 90s, maybe even mid 90s at times.
Thank goodness for the good soil moisture; the sun will be working on evaporating that moisture, meaning not as much energy to heat the ground, which in turn heats the air.
The heights at the 500 mb level will hold in the 5920-5950 meter range during the next seven days, with temperatures at that level (about 18,000 to 20,000 feet off the ground) in the -5 to -6 range (C). That means a relatively stable airmass, and afternoon storms being pretty scattered. Precipitatible water has dropped a little here, to 1.81". Still the risk of heavy rain the stronger storms, but not as much rain as last week, and once again, those storms will be widely spaced.
EMILY: The hurricane should move into the northeast Mexican coast tomorrow night most likely as a category three hurricane. I hope my friends across the Rio Grande Valley get some beneficial rain from Emily; the drought has been severe in recent years.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is very quiet. A nice wave has moved off the coast of Africa this morning, but looks like we will have rather quiet weather in the tropics at least for the rest of this week.
ON THE RADIO: Wow... thanks to everyone for listening to WZZK this morning. Lots of nice e-mails; I am filling in for Johnson and Johnson from 6 until 9 am through Friday on 104.7. Nice thing about radio is that I always look good.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Welcome to the dog days of summer. Our forecast will not change much over the next two weeks; and you pretty much know what we are going to say. Hot and humid, lots of morning sunshine, a few neighborhoods getting a passing afternoon storm with brief heavy rain and lots of lightning. Afternoon highs in the low 90s, maybe even mid 90s at times.
Thank goodness for the good soil moisture; the sun will be working on evaporating that moisture, meaning not as much energy to heat the ground, which in turn heats the air.
The heights at the 500 mb level will hold in the 5920-5950 meter range during the next seven days, with temperatures at that level (about 18,000 to 20,000 feet off the ground) in the -5 to -6 range (C). That means a relatively stable airmass, and afternoon storms being pretty scattered. Precipitatible water has dropped a little here, to 1.81". Still the risk of heavy rain the stronger storms, but not as much rain as last week, and once again, those storms will be widely spaced.
EMILY: The hurricane should move into the northeast Mexican coast tomorrow night most likely as a category three hurricane. I hope my friends across the Rio Grande Valley get some beneficial rain from Emily; the drought has been severe in recent years.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is very quiet. A nice wave has moved off the coast of Africa this morning, but looks like we will have rather quiet weather in the tropics at least for the rest of this week.
ON THE RADIO: Wow... thanks to everyone for listening to WZZK this morning. Lots of nice e-mails; I am filling in for Johnson and Johnson from 6 until 9 am through Friday on 104.7. Nice thing about radio is that I always look good.
AM Weather Discussion, July 18
July 18, 2005, 9:20 am
In case you are looking for the morning web video map discussion, I've had technical problems with my laptop and it's dropping frames like mad so I can't post a video. Now I'll have to spend some time trouble shooting the problem. Also the podcast did not come out well either, so please forgive the lousy audio.
A moisture rich environment stretches from Texas to New England this morning. On the surface map, a low was moving across south-central Canada with a cold front trailing into the central plains states. A number of thunderstorm clusters were evident on radar in Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Shower were most numerous along the boundary between the dryer air to the northwest and the moist air to the southeast that stretched from northeast Texas into western Kentucky. Shower were moving northeast.
As JB noted, Emily has emerged into the southwest Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane. Emily came ashore overnight on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 4 hurricane with the eye traveling right over Cozumel, Mexico. Emily is expected to regain major hurricane status as she moves across the warm water of the southwest Gulf. Emily should make landfall in the northeast corner of Mexico in the early morning hours of Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane.
Forecast wise it looks like we will remain stuck in a summertime pattern with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to climb consistently into the 90s during the upcoming week. As an upper level high gets an even firmer hold on the southeast, we should see mid and upper 90s toward the end of the week with widely scattered showers still possible.
James will be posting the vido map discussion later this afternoon, and I'll pick up the morning discussions for the rest of the week. Now to go deal with my fussy laptop! And I even got it some more memory!!
-Brian-
A moisture rich environment stretches from Texas to New England this morning. On the surface map, a low was moving across south-central Canada with a cold front trailing into the central plains states. A number of thunderstorm clusters were evident on radar in Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Shower were most numerous along the boundary between the dryer air to the northwest and the moist air to the southeast that stretched from northeast Texas into western Kentucky. Shower were moving northeast.
As JB noted, Emily has emerged into the southwest Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane. Emily came ashore overnight on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 4 hurricane with the eye traveling right over Cozumel, Mexico. Emily is expected to regain major hurricane status as she moves across the warm water of the southwest Gulf. Emily should make landfall in the northeast corner of Mexico in the early morning hours of Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane.
Forecast wise it looks like we will remain stuck in a summertime pattern with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to climb consistently into the 90s during the upcoming week. As an upper level high gets an even firmer hold on the southeast, we should see mid and upper 90s toward the end of the week with widely scattered showers still possible.
James will be posting the vido map discussion later this afternoon, and I'll pick up the morning discussions for the rest of the week. Now to go deal with my fussy laptop! And I even got it some more memory!!
-Brian-
Emily Sliding Into Southern Gulf--9 am Update
July 18, 2005, 9:10 am
Satellite photographs show that Hurricane Emily is now sliding off the north coast of the Yucatan into the Extreme Southern Gulf of Mexico.
High cirrus clouds spinning outward clockwise from the top of the hurricane have reached the Alabama Coast.
But that does not mean anything. Emily is not expected to bother Alabama.
NHC official hurricane track forecast is for landfall on the upper east coast of Mexico in the middle of the night Wednesday night. However, a Hurricane Watch extends northward on the Texas Coast from Brownsville to Baffin Bay.
Baffin Bay is south of Corpus Christi and SE of Kingsville, Texas.
9:00 O'CLOCK SPOT REPORT:
Bay of Campeche Buoy No. 42055...Wind ENE 15 to 18 mph, four-foot waves, water temperature 86. With sea surface temperatures that high, Emily should grow stronger again. Other ingredients in the pie support growth also.
High cirrus clouds spinning outward clockwise from the top of the hurricane have reached the Alabama Coast.
But that does not mean anything. Emily is not expected to bother Alabama.
NHC official hurricane track forecast is for landfall on the upper east coast of Mexico in the middle of the night Wednesday night. However, a Hurricane Watch extends northward on the Texas Coast from Brownsville to Baffin Bay.
Baffin Bay is south of Corpus Christi and SE of Kingsville, Texas.
9:00 O'CLOCK SPOT REPORT:
Bay of Campeche Buoy No. 42055...Wind ENE 15 to 18 mph, four-foot waves, water temperature 86. With sea surface temperatures that high, Emily should grow stronger again. Other ingredients in the pie support growth also.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
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